NYC Rent Price Analysis: Impact of Crime, Education & Walkability

A comprehensive data analytics project investigating the factors influencing rent prices across New York City's five boroughs, with focus on crime rates, education quality, and walkability metrics.

📊 Project Overview

This analysis examines rental market dynamics in New York City (2019-2023), exploring how crime, education quality, and walkability influence rent prices across different boroughs and neighborhoods. The project provides data-driven insights for real estate investors and policy makers.

Team: Group 8 - Diana Geoffrion, Tracey Ho, Tianyi Sun, Mika Wada, Angelina Ying
Institution: Columbia University - MS Applied Analytics
Analysis Period: 2019-2023

🎯 Key Findings

Rent Price Insights

• Manhattan leads with highest average rents ($5,219 in Lower Manhattan)
• COVID-19 Impact: Rent prices dropped in 2021 (especially Manhattan and Brooklyn) but rebounded strongly by 2022, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 2023
• Top Neighborhoods:
  • Lower Manhattan: $5,219
  • Downtown Brooklyn: $4,608
  • LIC/Astoria (Queens): $3,446

Crime Analysis

• No statistical significance between rent prices and crime rates
• Findings:
  • Manhattan has the highest rent but second-highest crime
  • Brooklyn has the highest crime but varying rent prices
  • Staten Island (suburban) has lowest crime rates
• Top Crime Types: Larceny, Harassment, Assault (50% of total cases)

Education Quality

• Statistical significance found between rent prices and education quality
• Metric: Average % of students enrolled in AP courses
• Rankings by Borough:
  1. Manhattan: 35.3% AP enrollment
  2. Queens: 32.5% AP enrollment
  3. Brooklyn: 31.8% AP enrollment
  4. Bronx: 29.2% AP enrollment
• Investment Insight: High-education areas in Queens and Brooklyn attract families, driving up rent prices

Walkability Impact

• High correlation between walkability and rent prices
• Most Walkable Areas:
  • Lower Manhattan: 99.4 walkability score
  • Downtown Brooklyn: 96.8 walkability score
  • LIC/Astoria: 94.2 walkability score
• Pattern: Areas near Financial District command premium rents due to commuter demand

💡 Business Insights & Recommendations

Investment Strategy by Borough

Manhattan:

• Focus on maintaining luxury appeal and high-quality amenities
• Target tenants willing to pay premium prices
• Areas near Financial District will maintain high rent prices

Brooklyn & Queens:

• Invest in emerging neighborhoods with rising demand
• Target high-education areas (Downtown Brooklyn, LIC/Astoria)
• Rents remain comparatively lower but growing

Bronx & Staten Island:

• Emphasize affordability and community-oriented amenities
• Attract price-sensitive tenants
• Focus on family-friendly features

Investment Hotspots for Families

Areas combining education quality + walkability offer best ROI:

Location	Avg. Rent	AP Enrollment	Walkability
Lower Manhattan	$5,219	35.3%	99.4
Downtown Brooklyn	$4,608	37.9%	96.8
LIC/Astoria	$3,446	38.6%	94.2

These areas attract families and command premium rents.

🔍 Methodology

Data Sources

1. Rent Prices: StreetEasy NYC Housing Market Data
2. Crime Data: NYPD Complaint Data Historic
3. Education Data: NYC Schools Quality Reports
4. Walkability: Walk Score

Analysis Approach

• Geographic Scope: Five NYC boroughs, neighborhood-level analysis
• Time Period: 2019-2023 (including pandemic period)
• Statistical Methods:
  • Correlation analysis between rent and factors
  • Spatial analysis using geographic mapping
  • Time series analysis for trend identification
  • Comparative analysis across boroughs

Key Metrics

• Rent Price: Average monthly rent by neighborhood
• Crime Rate: Total incidents per borough
• Education Quality: % of students enrolled in AP courses
• Walkability Score: 0-100 scale (Walk Score methodology)

📈 Visualizations

The project includes comprehensive data visualizations:

1. Rent Price Trends

   • Time series by borough (2019-2023)
   • Neighborhood-level heatmaps
   • Borough comparisons

2. Crime Analysis

   • Crime density maps by borough
   • Incident scatter plots vs. rent prices
   • Crime type distribution

3. Education & Walkability

   • AP enrollment heatmaps
   • Walkability score distributions
   • Multi-factor correlation analysis

4. Investment Analysis

   • Recommended investment zones
   • Risk-return profiles by area

🏙️ Why Are NYC Rents So High?

Key Contributing Factors:

1. Strong Job Markets

   • Finance, tech, and professional services concentration
   • High-wage industries driving demand
   • Proximity to employment hubs commands premium

2. Limited Housing Supply

   • Strict zoning laws restrict new construction
   • High construction costs limit development
   • Supply-demand imbalance in desirable areas

3. Geographic Constraints

   • Island geography limits expansion
   • Protected green spaces reduce available land
   • Infrastructure limitations

4. Pandemic Recovery

   • Strong rebound in demand post-2021
   • Remote work flexibility increased attractiveness
   • Return of international students and workers

🎓 Technical Skills Demonstrated

• Data Analysis: Multi-source data integration and cleaning
• Statistical Analysis: Correlation analysis, hypothesis testing
• Geospatial Analysis: Crime density mapping, neighborhood clustering
• Data Visualization: Infographic design, interactive mapping
• Business Analytics: Investment recommendations, market insights
• Research Methods: Literature review, data source evaluation

🛠️ Tools & Technologies

• Data Processing: Python/R (Pandas, dplyr)
• Statistical Analysis: Statistical software for correlation analysis
• Visualization: Data visualization tools for infographic creation
• Geospatial: GIS tools for mapping and spatial analysis
• Data Sources: Public datasets, real estate platforms

📊 Data Insights by Borough

Manhattan

• Characteristics: Highest rents, second-highest crime
• Strengths: Best walkability, strong education
• Target Market: High-income professionals, luxury seekers

Brooklyn

• Characteristics: Highest crime, moderate-to-high rents
• Strengths: Emerging neighborhoods, good education
• Target Market: Young professionals, families

Queens

• Characteristics: Moderate rents, strong education
• Strengths: Value proposition, family-friendly
• Target Market: Families, middle-income professionals

Bronx

• Characteristics: Lower rents, developing infrastructure
• Strengths: Affordability, community-oriented
• Target Market: Price-sensitive renters, first-time renters

Staten Island

• Characteristics: Lowest crime, suburban setting
• Strengths: Safety, space, quieter environment
• Target Market: Families seeking suburban lifestyle

🔮 Future Research Directions

1. Temporal Analysis

   • Predict future rent trends using time series models
   • Analyze seasonal rental patterns
   • Long-term impact of remote work

2. Additional Features

   • Transportation accessibility (subway proximity)
   • Amenities (parks, restaurants, gyms)
   • Building characteristics (age, amenities)

3. Predictive Modeling

   • Build ML models to predict rent prices
   • Identify emerging investment opportunities
   • Risk assessment models for investors

4. Demographic Analysis

   • Income levels and affordability
   • Population growth patterns
   • Migration trends

💼 Real Estate Investment Implications

High-Return Strategies

Short-term (1-2 years):

• Focus on post-pandemic recovery areas
• Target neighborhoods with improving walkability
• Invest in areas near expanding subway lines

Medium-term (3-5 years):

• High-education areas in Queens and Brooklyn
• Emerging neighborhoods with rising demand
• Areas benefiting from infrastructure improvements

Long-term (5+ years):

• Affordable neighborhoods with development potential
• Areas with planned school improvements
• Communities with walkability enhancement projects

Risk Considerations

• Crime trends (though not statistically significant for rent)
• School district changes
• Infrastructure development delays
• Economic recession impacts

👥 Team Contributions

Group 8 Members:

• Diana Geoffrion
• Tracey Ho
• Tianyi Sun
• Mika Wada
• Angelina Ying

Collaborative project demonstrating teamwork, data analysis, and business communication skills.

📄 Project Deliverables

• ✅ Comprehensive data analysis across multiple factors
• ✅ Professional infographic visualization
• ✅ Statistical correlation analysis
• ✅ Business recommendations for real estate investors
• ✅ Geographic insights and mapping

🎯 Key Takeaways

1. Education quality significantly impacts rent prices - prioritize high-education neighborhoods for family-oriented investments
2. Walkability drives premium pricing - areas near commercial hubs command higher rents
3. Crime has no statistical impact on rent - safety concerns don't directly translate to price reductions
4. Post-pandemic recovery is strong - NYC rental market has rebounded beyond pre-pandemic levels
5. Borough-specific strategies needed - Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens require different investment approaches

📞 Contact & Collaboration

Tracey Thanh Ho
MS Applied Analytics | Columbia University
LinkedIn | GitHub

📚 References

• Rent Data: StreetEasy NYC Housing Market Data
• Crime Data: NYPD Complaint Data Historic (2019-2023)
• Education Data: NYC Department of Education School Quality Reports
• Walkability Data: Walk Score

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This project demonstrates advanced data analytics, geospatial analysis, and business intelligence capabilities in the real estate domain.