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pca-based rookies and linear progs from real data #404

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5b094cb
pca-based rookies and linear progs from real data
nicidob Dec 19, 2021
76f0d4a
log-space models so everything is a multiplier, and fine-tuned coeffi…
nicidob Dec 20, 2021
d61023b
rebalanced so the top end works okay
nicidob Dec 22, 2021
6241422
ovr matching
nicidob Dec 22, 2021
8eb0d93
tweaks
nicidob Jan 13, 2022
7df4fc6
sqrt-based progs
nicidob Jan 14, 2022
ef005e5
tweak generation with better settings
nicidob Jan 18, 2022
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ const genPlayersWithoutSaving = async (
}

// Small chance of making top 4 players (in 70 player draft) special - on average, one per draft class
if (existingPlayers.length === 0) {
if (!isSport("basketball") && existingPlayers.length === 0) {
const numSpecialPlayerChances = Math.round((4 / 70) * numPlayers);

for (let i = 0; i < numSpecialPlayerChances; i++) {
Expand Down
234 changes: 37 additions & 197 deletions src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -5,200 +5,38 @@ import type {
RatingKey,
} from "../../../common/types.basketball";

type RatingFormula = {
ageModifier: (age: number) => number;
changeLimits: (age: number) => [number, number];
};

const shootingFormula: RatingFormula = {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
// Reverse most of the age-related decline in calcBaseChange
if (age <= 27) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 29) {
return 0.5;
}

if (age <= 31) {
return 1.5;
}

return 2;
},
changeLimits: () => [-3, 13],
};
const iqFormula: RatingFormula = {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
if (age <= 21) {
return 4;
}

if (age <= 23) {
return 3;
}

// Reverse most of the age-related decline in calcBaseChange
if (age <= 27) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 29) {
return 0.5;
}

if (age <= 31) {
return 1.5;
}

return 2;
},
changeLimits: age => {
if (age >= 24) {
return [-3, 9];
}

// For 19: [-3, 32]
// For 23: [-3, 12]
return [-3, 7 + 5 * (24 - age)];
},
};
const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, RatingFormula> = {
stre: {
ageModifier: () => 0,
changeLimits: () => [-Infinity, Infinity],
},
spd: {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
if (age <= 27) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 30) {
return -2;
}

if (age <= 35) {
return -3;
}

if (age <= 40) {
return -4;
}

return -8;
},
changeLimits: () => [-12, 2],
},
jmp: {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
if (age <= 26) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 30) {
return -3;
}

if (age <= 35) {
return -4;
}

if (age <= 40) {
return -5;
}

return -10;
},
changeLimits: () => [-12, 2],
},
endu: {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
if (age <= 23) {
return random.uniform(0, 9);
}

if (age <= 30) {
return 0;
}

if (age <= 35) {
return -2;
}

if (age <= 40) {
return -4;
}

return -8;
},
changeLimits: () => [-11, 19],
},
dnk: {
ageModifier: (age: number) => {
// Like shootingForumla, except for old players
if (age <= 27) {
return 0;
}

return 0.5;
},
changeLimits: () => [-3, 13],
},
ins: shootingFormula,
ft: shootingFormula,
fg: shootingFormula,
tp: shootingFormula,
oiq: iqFormula,
diq: iqFormula,
drb: {
ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
},
pss: {
ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
},
reb: {
ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
},
// (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
diq: [0.008, -0.18, -0.0, 0.0012],
dnk: [0.006, -0.1601, -0.0009, 0.0317],
drb: [0.0087, -0.2156, 0.0, 0.0],
endu: [-0.0398, 1.0722, 0.0029, -0.0604],
fg: [0.0024, -0.0443, -0.0008, 0.054],
ft: [0.0052, -0.1124, -0.0012, 0.0704],
ins: [0.0027, -0.0933, -0.0006, 0.083],
jmp: [-0.0146, 0.2996, 0.0077, -0.1821],
oiq: [-0.0016, 0.0676, -0.0, 0.0012],
pss: [0.0062, -0.1502, -0.0, 0.0001],
reb: [0.0067, -0.1769, -0.0, 0.0006],
spd: [-0.0079, 0.1606, 0.0033, -0.0793],
stre: [-0.0019, 0.0375, 0.0, 0.0],
tp: [0.0079, -0.1909, -0.0025, 0.1013],
};

const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
let val: number;

if (age <= 21) {
val = 2;
} else if (age <= 25) {
val = 1;
} else if (age <= 27) {
val = 0;
} else if (age <= 29) {
val = -1;
} else if (age <= 31) {
val = -2;
} else if (age <= 34) {
val = -3;
} else if (age <= 40) {
val = -4;
} else if (age <= 43) {
val = -5;
} else {
val = -6;
}
const base_coef = [-0.0148, 0.3846, -0.0001, 0.1659];

// Noise
if (age <= 23) {
val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 5), -4, 20);
} else if (age <= 25) {
val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 5), -4, 10);
} else {
val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 3), -2, 4);
}
val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
const std_base = base_coef[2] * age + base_coef[3];
const std_noise = helpers.bound(
random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, std_base)),
-0.1,
0.4,
);
val += std_noise;

// Modulate by coaching. g.get("numActiveTeams") doesn't exist when upgrading DB, but that doesn't matter
if (g.hasOwnProperty("numActiveTeams")) {
const numActiveTeams = g.get("numActiveTeams");
if (numActiveTeams > 1) {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -230,21 +68,23 @@ const developSeason = (
ratings.hgt += 1;
}
}
const age_bounds = helpers.bound(age, 19, 50);

const baseChange = calcBaseChange(age, coachingRank);
const baseChange = calcBaseChange(age_bounds, coachingRank);

for (const key of helpers.keys(ratingsFormulas)) {
const ageModifier = ratingsFormulas[key].ageModifier(age);
const changeLimits = ratingsFormulas[key].changeLimits(age);

const ageModifier =
ratingsFormulas[key][0] * age_bounds + ratingsFormulas[key][1];
const ageStd =
ratingsFormulas[key][2] * age_bounds + ratingsFormulas[key][3];

const ageChange =
ageModifier +
helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, ageStd)), -0.4, 0.5);
ratings[key] = limitRating(
ratings[key] +
helpers.bound(
(baseChange + ageModifier) * random.uniform(0.4, 1.4),
changeLimits[0],
changeLimits[1],
),
(Math.sqrt(Math.max(1, ratings[key])) + baseChange + ageChange) ** 2,
);
//console.log(baseChange,ageChange);
}
};

Expand Down
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