Polyseer - See the Future.

Everyone wishes they could go back and buy Bitcoin at $1. Polyseer brings the future to you, so you never have to wonder "what if?" again.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE | Polyseer provides analysis for entertainment and research purposes only. Always DYOR.

Quick Start (Self-Hosted)

The easiest way to run Polyseer is in self-hosted mode with just 3 environment variables:

git clone https://github.com/yorkeccak/polyseer.git
cd polyseer
npm install

# Create .env.local with:
# NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=self-hosted
# VALYU_API_KEY=valyu_xxx        # Get from platform.valyu.ai
# OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-xxx          # Get from platform.openai.com

npm run dev

Open localhost:3000, paste any Polymarket or Kalshi URL, and get your analysis.

Self-hosted mode features:

No authentication required
Local SQLite database (automatically created)
Unlimited queries using your API keys
Perfect for personal use and development

What is Polyseer?

Prediction markets tell you what might happen. Polyseer tells you why.

Drop in any Polymarket or Kalshi URL and get a structured analysis that breaks down the actual factors driving an outcome. Instead of gut feelings or surface-level takes, you get systematic research across academic papers, news, market data, and expert analysis.

The system uses multiple AI agents to research both sides of a question, then aggregates the evidence using Bayesian probability math. Think of it as having a research team that can read thousands of sources in minutes and give you the key insights.

Core features:

Systematic research across academic, web, and market data sources
Evidence classification and quality scoring
Mathematical probability aggregation (not just vibes)
Both sides research to avoid confirmation bias
Real-time data, not stale information

Built for developers, researchers, and anyone who wants rigorous analysis instead of speculation.

Architecture Overview

Polyseer is built on a multi-agent AI architecture that orchestrates specialized agents to conduct deep analysis. Here's how it works:

graph TD
    A[User Input: Market URL] --> B[Platform Detector]
    B --> C{Polymarket or Kalshi?}
    C -->|Polymarket| D[Polymarket API Client]
    C -->|Kalshi| E[Kalshi API Client]
    D --> F[Unified Market Data]
    E --> F
    B --> C[Orchestrator]
    C --> D[Planner Agent]
    D --> E[Research Agents]
    E --> F[Valyu Search Network]
    F --> G[Evidence Collection]
    G --> H[Critic Agent]
    H --> I[Analyst Agent]
    I --> J[Reporter Agent]
    J --> K[Final Verdict]

    style A fill:#e1f5fe
    style K fill:#c8e6c9
    style F fill:#fff3e0
    style C fill:#f3e5f5

Agent System Deep Dive

sequenceDiagram
    participant User
    participant Orch as Orchestrator
    participant Plan as Planner
    participant Res as Researcher
    participant Valyu as valyuAI
    participant Critic
    participant Analyst
    participant Reporter

    User->>Orch: Polymarket URL
    Orch->>Plan: Generate research strategy
    Plan->>Orch: Subclaims + search seeds

    par Research Cycle 1
        Orch->>Res: Research PRO evidence
        Res->>Valyu: Deep + Web searches
        Valyu-->>Res: Academic papers, news, data
        and
        Orch->>Res: Research CON evidence
        Res->>Valyu: Targeted counter-searches
        Valyu-->>Res: Contradicting evidence
    end

    Orch->>Critic: Analyze evidence gaps
    Critic->>Orch: Follow-up search recommendations

    par Research Cycle 2 (if gaps found)
        Orch->>Res: Targeted follow-up searches
        Res->>Valyu: Fill identified gaps
        Valyu-->>Res: Missing evidence
    end

    Orch->>Analyst: Bayesian probability aggregation
    Analyst->>Orch: pNeutral, pAware, evidence weights

    Orch->>Reporter: Generate final report
    Reporter->>User: Analyst-grade verdict

Deep Research System

Valyu Integration

Polyseer uses the Valyu API for its research capabilities, providing access to:

Academic Papers: Real-time research publications
Web Intelligence: Fresh news and analysis
Market Data: Financial and trading information
Proprietary Datasets: Exclusive Valyu intelligence

graph LR
    A[Research Query] --> B[Valyu Deep Search]
    B --> C[Academic Sources]
    B --> D[Web Sources]
    B --> E[Market Data]
    B --> F[Proprietary Intel]

    C --> G[Evidence Classification]
    D --> G
    E --> G
    F --> G

    G --> H[Type A: Primary Sources]
    G --> I[Type B: High-Quality Secondary]
    G --> J[Type C: Standard Secondary]
    G --> K[Type D: Weak/Speculative]

    style B fill:#fff3e0
    style H fill:#c8e6c9
    style I fill:#dcedc8
    style J fill:#f0f4c3
    style K fill:#ffcdd2

Evidence Quality System

Each piece of evidence is rigorously classified:

Type	Description	Cap	Examples
A	Primary Sources	2.0	Official documents, press releases, regulatory filings
B	High-Quality Secondary	1.6	Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, expert analysis
C	Standard Secondary	0.8	Reputable news with citations, industry publications
D	Weak/Speculative	0.3	Social media, unverified claims, rumors

Mathematical Foundation

Bayesian Probability Aggregation

Polyseer uses sophisticated mathematical models to combine evidence:

graph TD
    A[Prior Probability p0] --> B[Evidence Weights]
    B --> C[Log Likelihood Ratios]
    C --> D[Correlation Adjustments]
    D --> E[Cluster Analysis]
    E --> F[Final Probabilities]

    F --> G[pNeutral: Objective Assessment]
    F --> H[pAware: Market-Informed]

    style A fill:#e3f2fd
    style F fill:#c8e6c9
    style G fill:#dcedc8
    style H fill:#f0f4c3

Key Formulas:

Log Likelihood Ratio: LLR = log(P(evidence|YES) / P(evidence|NO))
Probability Update: p_new = p_old * exp(LLR)
Correlation Adjustment: Accounts for evidence clustering and dependencies

Evidence Influence Calculation

Each piece of evidence receives an influence score based on:

Verifiability: Can the claim be independently verified?
Consistency: Internal logical coherence
Independence: Number of independent corroborations
Recency: How fresh is the information?

Technology Stack

Frontend

Next.js 15.5 - React framework with Turbopack
Tailwind CSS 4 - Utility-first styling
Framer Motion - Smooth animations
Radix UI - Accessible components
React 19 - Latest React features

Backend & APIs

AI SDK - LLM orchestration
GPT-5 - Advanced reasoning model
Valyu API - Search and research capabilities
Polymarket API - Market data fetching
Kalshi API - Market data fetching
SQLite/Supabase - Database (mode-dependent)

State Management

Zustand - Simple state management
TanStack Query - Server state synchronization

Infrastructure

TypeScript - Type safety throughout
Zod - Runtime type validation
ESLint - Code quality

Getting Started

Prerequisites

Node.js 18+
npm/pnpm/yarn
OpenAI API key - For GPT-5 access
Valyu API key - For search capabilities (get at platform.valyu.ai)

1. Clone the Repository

git clone https://github.com/your-org/polyseer.git
cd polyseer

2. Install Dependencies

npm install
# or
pnpm install

3. Environment Setup

Create .env.local with your configuration:

Self-Hosted Mode (Recommended)

# ===========================================
# Self-Hosted Mode Configuration
# ===========================================
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=self-hosted
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_URL=http://localhost:3000

# ===========================================
# Required API Keys
# ===========================================
# Get your Valyu API key at: https://platform.valyu.ai
VALYU_API_KEY=valyu_your_api_key_here

# Get your OpenAI API key at: https://platform.openai.com
OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-your_openai_api_key_here

That's it! Self-hosted mode uses a local SQLite database that's automatically created.

Valyu Mode (Advanced)

Note: Valyu OAuth apps will be in general availability soon. Currently client id/secret are not publicly available. Contact contact@valyu.ai if you need access.

# ===========================================
# Valyu Mode Configuration
# ===========================================
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=valyu
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_URL=https://yourdomain.com

# ===========================================
# Valyu OAuth Configuration
# ===========================================
NEXT_PUBLIC_VALYU_SUPABASE_URL=https://xxx.supabase.co
NEXT_PUBLIC_VALYU_CLIENT_ID=your-oauth-client-id
VALYU_CLIENT_SECRET=your-oauth-client-secret
VALYU_APP_URL=https://platform.valyu.ai

# ===========================================
# App's Own Supabase (Required for Valyu Mode)
# ===========================================
NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URL=https://your-app.supabase.co
NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=your-supabase-anon-key
SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY=your-service-role-key

# ===========================================
# Required API Keys
# ===========================================
VALYU_API_KEY=valyu_your_api_key_here
OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-your_openai_api_key_here

4. Start the Development Server

npm run dev

Open http://localhost:3000 and start analyzing.

Agent System Details

Planner Agent

Purpose: Break down complex questions into research pathways Input: Market question Output: Subclaims, search seeds, key variables, decision criteria

interface Plan {
  subclaims: string[];      // Causal pathways to outcome
  keyVariables: string[];   // Leading indicators to monitor
  searchSeeds: string[];    // Targeted search queries
  decisionCriteria: string[]; // Evidence evaluation criteria
}

Researcher Agent

Purpose: Gather evidence from multiple sources Tools: Valyu Deep Search, Valyu Web Search Process:

Initial bilateral research (PRO/CON)
Evidence classification (A/B/C/D)
Follow-up targeted searches

Critic Agent

Purpose: Identify gaps and provide quality feedback Analysis:

Missing evidence areas
Duplication detection
Data quality concerns
Correlation adjustments
Follow-up search recommendations

Analyst Agent

Purpose: Mathematical probability aggregation Methods:

Bayesian updating
Evidence clustering
Correlation adjustments
Log-likelihood calculations

Reporter Agent

Purpose: Generate human-readable analysis Output: Markdown report with:

Executive summary
Evidence synthesis
Risk factors
Confidence assessment

Security & Privacy

Data Protection

End-to-end encryption for sensitive data
Secure session management
Input sanitization for all user data
No personal data stored in search queries

API Security

Request validation using Zod schemas
Audit logging for all API calls

Contributing

We welcome contributions! Here's how to get started:

Development Workflow

Fork the repository
Create a feature branch: git checkout -b feature/amazing-feature
Make your changes
Add tests: npm run test
Submit a pull request

Code Style

TypeScript: Strict mode enabled
ESLint: Follow the configuration
Prettier: Auto-formatting on save
Conventional Commits: Use semantic commit messages

Legal & Disclaimers

Important Notice

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: Polyseer provides analysis for entertainment and research purposes only. All predictions are probabilistic and should not be used as the sole basis for financial decisions.

Terms of Service

Privacy Policy: We respect your privacy
Terms of Use: Fair use and guidelines
Liability: Limited liability for predictions
Jurisdiction: Governed by applicable laws

License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.

Acknowledgments

Powered By

valyuAI: Real-time search API
OpenAI GPT-5: Advanced reasoning capabilities
Polymarket: Prediction market data
Kalshi: Prediction market data

Ready to see the future? Clone the repo and start analyzing markets locally.

Remember: The future belongs to those who can see it coming. Don't miss out again.

See the Future. Don't Miss Out.

Name		Name	Last commit message	Last commit date
Latest commit History 134 Commits
public		public
scripts		scripts
src		src
supabase		supabase
.env.example		.env.example
.gitignore		.gitignore
README.md		README.md
components.json		components.json
eslint.config.mjs		eslint.config.mjs
next.config.ts		next.config.ts
package.json		package.json
pnpm-lock.yaml		pnpm-lock.yaml
postcss.config.mjs		postcss.config.mjs
tsconfig.json		tsconfig.json
vercel.json		vercel.json

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