A CFO-grade FP&A framework that stress-tests enterprise liquidity and translates financial shock scenarios into objective capital allocation decisions at the business-unit level.
This project demonstrates how liquidity risk, not profitability, determines organizational survival — and how delayed capital decisions accelerate value destruction.
This repository presents a CFO-grade Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A) project focused on:
- Enterprise liquidity resilience
- Capital allocation discipline
- Stress-tested decision governance
The framework simulates multi-scenario financial shocks and converts them into unit-level capital actions using objective, data-driven rules.
This is not academic financial modeling.
It reflects real-world capital governance logic applied under uncertainty and financial stress.
Many organizations remain profitable on paper while silently drifting toward operational insolvency due to:
- Rigid fixed-cost structures
- Delayed liquidity visibility
- Subjective management judgment during crises
- Capital misallocation across business units
At what point does capital allocation stop creating value and begin destroying liquidity?
- Stress-test enterprise liquidity under adverse revenue scenarios
- Detect early signals of operational insolvency
- Prevent capital contagion across business units
- Replace subjective judgment with objective capital governance triggers
- Multi-entity / multi–business unit portfolio
- Unit-level liquidity and cash runway modeling
- Scenario-based capital allocation outcomes
- Strategic classification logic: FUND / FIX / KILL
- Revenue and operating cost normalization
- Removal of scale distortions (trillion / quadrillion artifacts)
- No artificial smoothing or numerical manipulation
| Scenario | Revenue Impact | Cost Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Base | Normal | Baseline |
| Downside | −15% | +2% |
| Severe | −30% | +5% |
- Net Cash Flow
- Cash Buffer Ratio
- Cash Runway (months)
Each business unit is classified based on liquidity sustainability:
- FUND → Value creation and strategic expansion
- FIX → Conditional survival with enforced cost discipline
- KILL → Capital termination to prevent systemic risk
- A 30% revenue decline produces an 8× acceleration in cash burn
- Fixed costs dominate the cost structure, amplifying downside exposure
- Cash runway dispersion ranges from 97 months to 0.2 months
- Positive equity does not imply operational survivability
- ~79% of business units enter survival or termination mode under severe stress
- The enterprise structurally shifts from a Growth Entity to a Survival Entity
| Category | Units | Strategic Action |
|---|---|---|
| 🚀 FUND | 2,544 | Accelerate R&D, M&A, market dominance |
| 5,120 | OpEx −20%, hiring freeze, debt restructuring | |
| ❌ KILL | 4,336 | Shutdown, divestment, asset liquidation |
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Liquidity > Revenue
Revenue is a vanity metric; liquidity is existential. -
Delay is fatal
Acting at sub–1 month runway eliminates strategic optionality. -
Capital amputation is not failure
It is a governance discipline.
This project demonstrates the ability to:
- Translate financial analytics into capital allocation strategy
- Identify hidden structural risks beyond surface-level ratios
- Communicate insights using board-level decision language
- Design analytics that drive real investment and survival decisions
This is not a growth story.
This is a capital survival and governance story.
All data used in this project is simulated and anonymized for analytical and portfolio demonstration purposes only.
No real company financials are disclosed.
Sigit Dwiantoro
Financial & Risk Analytics | FP&A | Capital Strategy
Focused on:
- Liquidity risk management
- Capital allocation governance
- Enterprise financial resilience
“A company does not die from lack of profit.
It dies from lack of cash — and delayed decisions.”