Docs: Track D capstone — NSO case + templates + rubric

docs/source/business_capstone_nso_close_clean_explain_forecast_decide.rst

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+Capstone — North Shore Outfitters: Close → Clean → Explain → Forecast → Decide
+==============================================================================
+
+This capstone pulls together Track D into one realistic deliverable set.
+You will **close**, **clean**, **explain**, **forecast**, and **recommend actions** for
+North Shore Outfitters (NSO).
+
+The capstone is designed to feel like a real analyst/accountant engagement:
+
+* You start with messy-but-usable operational and accounting exports.
+* You build a documented, analysis-ready dataset.
+* You explain what happened (with uncertainty and guardrails).
+* You produce forecasts that tie across **P&L + Balance Sheet + Cash**.
+* You end with a short decision memo that a CFO could act on.
+
+You do **not** need to invent complex accounting mechanics.
+Track D is built so your work can be grounded in the NSO tables already produced by the
+simulator and the chapter scripts.
+
+How to get the NSO case dataset
+-------------------------------
+
+Track D uses a synthetic NSO dataset generated by the repo's simulator.
+From the repo root:
+
+.. code-block:: bash
+
+   make business-nso-sim
+
+This writes the NSO v1 dataset under:
+
+* ``data/synthetic/nso_v1/`` (monthly tables, 24 months)
+
+Optional (recommended) validation step:
+
+.. code-block:: bash
+
+   make business-validate
+
+Submission format
+-----------------
+
+Submit a single folder (zip is fine) that contains your deliverables.
+Use filenames that make review easy, for example:
+
+* ``01_close_controls/``
+* ``02_analysis_ready_data/``
+* ``03_performance_analysis/``
+* ``04_forecast_pack/``
+* ``05_decision_memo/``
+
+Deliverables
+------------
+
+1) Close & Controls Pack
+^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
+
+Minimum contents:
+
+* Bank reconciliation summary (reconciling items categorized)
+* AR tie-out (AR aging or AR rollforward, with exceptions)
+* AP tie-out (AP aging or AP rollforward, with exceptions)
+* Exception report (duplicates, timing outliers, one-offs, negative balances)
+* Corrections log (what you changed, why, and impact)
+
+High-value additions:
+
+* A short narrative: "What could go wrong next month if controls stay weak?"
+* A control owner list: who signs off on each check
+
+2) Analysis-ready Dataset
+^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
+
+Minimum contents:
+
+* A tidy GL table (one row per posting/transaction line)
+* Supporting tables you relied on (chart of accounts, customers/vendors, etc.)
+* A data dictionary (table name, key fields, units, definitions)
+* An assumptions log (what you inferred or standardized)
+
+High-value additions:
+
+* A reproducible build note: the steps to go from raw tables to tidy tables
+* A data quality checklist with pass/fail and comments
+
+3) Performance Analysis
+^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
+
+Minimum contents:
+
+* Trend and variance analysis (month-over-month, year-over-year)
+* A driver narrative grounded in Track D methods (not vibes)
+* A short "uncertainty" section (what you can't conclude)
+
+Acceptable analysis styles:
+
+* Structured variance bridges (volume, price, mix, one-offs)
+* Regression-style driver models (with diagnostics and practical interpretation)
+
+Guardrails:
+
+* Avoid causal overclaiming ("associated with" is safer than "caused")
+* Use accountant-friendly interpretation (rates, baselines, ranges)
+
+4) Forecast Pack
+^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
+
+Minimum contents:
+
+* 12-month rolling forecast (P&L + Balance Sheet + Cash tie-out)
+* 13-week cash forecast (direct method)
+* Three scenarios (base, downside, upside) with explicit assumption changes
+* A simple backtest summary and error metrics (at least one forecast horizon)
+
+Forecast hygiene expectations:
+
+* Forecasts reconcile across statements (cash tie-out is explicit)
+* Assumptions are written down, versioned, and owned
+
+5) Decision Memo
+^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
+
+Minimum contents (1–2 pages):
+
+* Recommended actions (specific, time-bounded)
+* Expected impact ranges (not point estimates only)
+* Risks and trade-offs
+* Monitoring plan: KPIs + thresholds + owners
+
+Suggested build order
+---------------------
+
+A practical sequence that stays close to the book:
+
+1. Generate dataset: ``make business-nso-sim``
+2. Validate and clean: Ch06–Ch07 patterns
+3. Explain performance: Ch08, Ch16–Ch17, Ch22
+4. Forecast:
+
+   * Cash: Ch19
+   * Integrated three statements: Ch20
+   * Scenario + stress: Ch21
+
+5. Communicate: Ch23 templates + dashboards + governance
+
+Templates and rubric
+--------------------
+
+Use the provided templates to keep your deliverables structured:
+
+* :doc:`business_capstone_templates`
+
+Your work is graded using the rubric:
+
+* :doc:`business_capstone_rubric`

docs/source/business_capstone_rubric.rst

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+Capstone rubric (100 points)
+============================
+
+This rubric is meant to be transparent and practical.
+It rewards (1) correct reconciliations and (2) clear, decision-ready communication.
+
+1) Controls & reconciliation quality (25 pts)
+---------------------------------------------
+
+* **25–22**: Reconciliations complete, reconciling items correctly categorized, clear
+  corrections log, strong exception checks, and a clean audit trail.
+* **21–16**: Mostly correct; minor gaps, light documentation, or a few unclear tie-outs.
+* **15–0**: Material errors, missing tie-outs, weak audit trail, or unclear corrections.
+
+2) Data preparation & documentation (20 pts)
+--------------------------------------------
+
+* **20–18**: Clean, tidy dataset; clear data dictionary; assumptions log; reproducible steps.
+* **17–12**: Dataset usable but inconsistent naming/definitions or weak documentation.
+* **11–0**: Messy data; unclear sources/definitions; not reproducible.
+
+3) Statistical analysis & interpretation (20 pts)
+-------------------------------------------------
+
+* **20–18**: Correct methods; practical interpretation; avoids causal overreach;
+  highlights uncertainty and diagnostics.
+* **17–12**: Reasonable analysis but some interpretation issues, missing diagnostics,
+  or limited linkage to business meaning.
+* **11–0**: Incorrect/irrelevant methods; misleading claims; no uncertainty handling.
+
+4) Forecast quality & forecast hygiene (25 pts)
+-----------------------------------------------
+
+* **25–22**: Forecast ties across statements; includes backtesting; error metrics;
+  scenario logic; governed assumptions; clear cash tie-out.
+* **21–16**: Forecast mostly sound; limited backtesting or weak scenario discipline.
+* **15–0**: Forecast does not reconcile; no evaluation; unjustified assumptions.
+
+5) Decision memo & communication (10 pts)
+-----------------------------------------
+
+* **10–9**: Clear actions, quantified impact ranges, risks, monitoring KPIs,
+  and accountable owners.
+* **8–6**: Good narrative but vague actions or limited quantification.
+* **5–0**: Unclear, non-actionable, or not decision-focused.
+
+Optional appendices (high value)
+--------------------------------
+
+These are optional, but they often improve clarity and reproducibility:
+
+* **A: Excel templates** (bank rec, KPI dictionary, forecast assumptions log, 13-week cash)
+* **B: QuickBooks export guide** (what to pull, how to structure)
+* **C: Python quick labs** (pandas cleaning, time series baselines, regression driver model)
+* **D: Common accounting-data pitfalls checklist** (timing, misclass, duplicates, reversals, one-offs)