Perspectives on Indian Energy based on Rumi (PIER), is an Indian energy systems model built on the Rumi modelling platform. Version 2 of PIER, with a time horizon of FY2040-41, features detailed bottom-up modelling of energy demand from three sectors (residential, transport and industry), newer supply options such as offshore wind and green hydrogen, and features such as blending of ethanol with Motor Spirit.
Henceforth, PIER model releases will be made on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14603083.
PIER 2 will be released in phases - one sector at a time. The demand model has been released at the above Zenodo link, and the supply model will subsequently be made public. Details about the various releases of Rumi and PIER can be found at https://energy.prayaspune.org/our-work/data-model-and-tool/rumi-pier
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PIER is an energy systems model for India, that estimates demand and cost-optimal supply options to meet the demand up to 2040-41. Demand is estimated separately for five different sectors: residential, transport, industry, agriculture and "others". Demand is estimated for each energy carrier and for each sector at as fine a granularity as possible. Thus, residential demand is estimated for carriers such as electricity, biomass (solid fuels) and LPG separately for urban and rural households in 25 states in India, with electricity demand being estimated for each hour of a representative day for each month of each year of the period modelled. Transport energy demand is estimated for each transport fuel (such as Motor Spirit and High Speed Diesel) and for each state, with electricity demand for transport also being estimated at the same temporal granularity as the residential sector. Industrial energy demand for fuels (such as coking coal, thermal coal, natural gas, petcoke etc) is estimated at the national level with electricity demand being estimated at the state level at the same temporal granularity as the residential sector. Industrial energy demand is estimated in a detailed way for the steel, cement and aluminium industries, which are the top energy consuming industries.
The supply module of PIER models available energy supply options for the various energy carriers, based on which Rumi picks the best options to meet total demand for each energy carrier. The supply options for primary carriers (such as coal, crude oil and natural gas) include domestic and imported variants of the carrier. For derived carriers (such as electricity, petroleum products and hydrogen), the options range across various technologies that can produce these carriers (such as coal, gas, solar, wind etc. for electricity generation; and refining for petroleum products).
Various scenarios are modelled to reflect different possible future pathways, with the input assumptions and values changing across the scenarios.
There are 3 overall scenarios in PIER Version 2:
- Reference (1_REF): This is a combination of the sector-specific reference scenarios, and represents what is likely to happen in the future based on past and likely future trends.
- 'Vikasit Bharat’ (2_Vikasit): This scenario can represent the equivalent of a ‘sustainable development’ scenario. It reflects the aspirations of a ‘developed India’ by 2047 (FY48) announced by the Government of India. We assume that this also means a more equitable development, with greater focus on sustainability.
- ‘Vichalit Bharat’ (3_Vichalit): This scenario is a counter-point to Vikasit Bharat, and represents a scenario in which development is a bit more haphazard. Economic growth is lower than Reference, it is less equitable, and it is also less environmentally sustainable due to lower investments in efficiency and new technologies.
More details are available in Scenarios/demand-scenarios-description.pdf
PIER follows the folder structure as requried by Rumi. Detailed documentation of Rumi is available at https://github.com/prayas-energy/Rumi Docs.zip under the latest release tag.
The PIER folder structure consists of the model input data (csvs) in the 'Parameters' folders and supporting documentation in the form of 'source' workbooks (xlsx) in the 'Source' folders, which are used to build the model input data. At the top level, there is a folder named 'Default Data' which typically consists of model data and source workbooks for the default scenario (in this case, 1_REF). Each source workbook has detailed documentation on how parameter data is constructed in that source file, and includes all the relevant data sources, assumptions and methodology used. The source files are found under Common/Source, Demand/Source and Supply/Source of the respective scenario, and the parameter files are found under Common/Parameters, Demand/Parameters and Supply/Parameters.
The outputs of each of the scenarios are provided under the corresponding Demand/Outputs and Supply/Outputs directories of the respective scenario folder under the 'Scenarios' directory at the root level.
PIER v2.0 is in sync with Rumi v2.0.
Rumi is available at https://github.com/prayas-energy/Rumi
Contact Prayas (Energy Group) at energy.model@prayaspune.org for any queries regarding PIER and Rumi.