Dev

R/postseason.R

@@ -562,7 +562,7 @@ gt_playoff_probs = function(data, ratings) {
     pivot_wider(names_from = c("round"), values_from = c("n"), values_fill = 0) |>
     mutate(
       across(any_of(c("round_1", "quarterfinal", "semifinal", "championship")), ~ case_when(.x == 0 ~ n_sims,
-                                                                                           TRUE ~ .x))) |>
+                                                                                            TRUE ~ .x))) |>
     mutate(across(where(is.numeric), ~ .x / n_sims)) |>
     select(logo = winner, team = winner, round_1, quarterfinal, semifinal, championship) |>
     arrange(desc(championship)) |>
@@ -587,7 +587,7 @@ plot_matchups = function(data) {
     ggplot(aes(x=n, fill = winner, y=reorder(matchup, games)))+
     geom_col()+
     cfbplotR::scale_fill_cfb()+
-#    facet_wrap(paste(round, round_game) ~., scales = "free")+
+    #    facet_wrap(paste(round, round_game) ~., scales = "free")+
     labs(y = "", x = "sims")+
     theme_light()+
     geom_text(aes(label = prop), color = 'white', position = position_stack(vjust = 0.5), size = 2.5)+
@@ -875,7 +875,7 @@ simulate_playoff_after_quarterfinal =
     round1_byes =
       playoff_seeds |>
       filter(seed <= 4)
-
+    
     quarterfinal_winners =
       playoff_seeds |>
       filter(team %in% quarterfinal_teams) |>
@@ -924,9 +924,70 @@ simulate_playoff_after_quarterfinal =
 
   }
 
+simulate_playoff_after_semifinal =
+  function(
+    playoff_teams,
+    round_1_teams,
+    quarterfinal_teams,
+    semifinal_teams,
+    estimates,
+    model) {
+
+    playoff_seeds =
+      playoff_teams |>
+      create_seeds()
+
+    round1_winners =
+      playoff_seeds |>
+      filter(team %in% round_1_teams) |>
+      select(team, seed)
+
+    round1_byes =
+      playoff_seeds |>
+      filter(seed <= 4)
+
+    quarterfinal_winners =
+      playoff_seeds |>
+      filter(team %in% quarterfinal_teams) |>
+      select(team, seed) |>
+      reorder_seeds()
+
+    semifinal_winners =
+      playoff_seeds |>
+      filter(team %in% semifinal_teams) |>
+      select(team, seed) |>
+      reorder_seeds()
+
+    championship_matchup =
+      semifinal_winners |>
+      create_championship() |>
+      add_team_estimates(estimates = estimates)
+
+    championship =
+      championship_matchup |>
+      simulate_outcome(model = model, ndraws = 1, seed = NULL)
+
+    championship_winner =
+      championship |>
+      select(team = winner, seed = winner_seed)
+
+    games =
+      championship |>
+      mutate(round = 'championship') |>
+      select(round, everything()) |>
+      group_by(round) |>
+      mutate(round_game = row_number()) |>
+      select(starts_with("round"), everything()) |>
+      ungroup() |>
+      mutate(round = factor(round, levels = c("round_1", "quarterfinal", "semifinal", "championship")))
+
+    return(games)
+
+  }
 
-reorder_seeds <- function(df) {
 
+reorder_seeds <- function(df) {
+
   # Identify the rows with the lowest and highest seeds
   lowest_index <- which.min(df$seed)
   highest_index <- which.max(df$seed)
@@ -1022,3 +1083,85 @@ gt_semifinal_probs = function(data, ratings) {
     gt_playoff_probs_table()
 
 }
+
+gt_championship_probs = function(data, ratings) {
+
+  gt_playoff_probs_table = function(data) {
+
+    data |>
+      gt::gt() |>
+      gt::cols_hide(columns = c("score", "special", "season")) |>
+      gt::fmt_number(columns = everything(), decimals = 3) |>
+      gtExtras::gt_theme_espn() |>
+      gt::opt_row_striping(row_striping = F) |>
+      gt::cols_label(
+        "round_1" ~ html("Round 1"),
+        "quarterfinal" ~ html("Quarterfinal"),
+        "semifinal" ~ html("Semi-Final"),
+        "championship" ~ html("Championship")
+      ) |>
+      gt::cols_width(
+        logo ~ px(75),
+        team ~ px(100),
+        offense ~ px(90),
+        defense ~ px(90),
+        round_1 ~ px(125),
+        quarterfinal ~ px(125),
+        semifinal ~ px(125),
+        championship ~ px(125)
+      ) |>
+      gt::cols_align(columns = -c("team"), align = "center") |>
+      gt::data_color(columns = c("round_1", "quarterfinal", "semifinal", "championship"),
+                     domain = c(0, .9),
+                     na_color = "deepskyblue1",
+                     palette = c("white", "deepskyblue1")) |>
+      cfbplotR::gt_fmt_cfb_logo("logo") |>
+      gt::tab_spanner(
+        columns = c("round_1", "quarterfinal", "semifinal", "championship"),
+        label = "win probability"
+      ) |>
+      gt::tab_spanner(
+        columns = c("offense", "defense"),
+        label = "team rating"
+      ) |>
+      gt::data_color(
+        columns = c("offense", "defense", "special"),
+        palette = c("orange", "white", "navy"),
+        domain = c(-.25, .4)
+      ) |>
+      gt::tab_style(
+        style = cell_borders(
+          sides = "left",
+          color = "white"
+        ),
+        locations = cells_body(
+          columns = c("round_1")
+        )
+      ) |>
+      gt::sub_values(
+        values = "1",
+        replacement = "✓"
+      ) |>
+      gtExtras::gt_theme_nytimes()
+
+
+  }
+
+  n_sims = max(data$.draw)
+
+  data |>
+    summarize_wins_by_round() |>
+    pivot_wider(names_from = c("round"), values_from = c("n"), values_fill = 0) |>
+    mutate(across(where(is.numeric), ~ .x / n_sims)) |>
+    mutate(round_1 = 1,
+           quarterfinal = 1,
+           semifinal = 1) |>
+    select(logo = winner, team = winner, round_1, quarterfinal, semifinal, championship) |>
+    arrange(desc(championship)) |>
+    inner_join(
+      ratings
+    ) |>
+    select(logo, team, score, offense, defense, special, everything()) |>
+    gt_playoff_probs_table()
+
+}

_targets.R

@@ -673,7 +673,8 @@ list(
     pre_semifinal_estimates,
     season_team_estimates |>
       filter(season_week == '2024_20') |>
-      slice_estimates()
+      slice_estimates(),
+    cue = tar_cue(mode = "never")
   ),
   tar_target(
     semifinal_sims,
@@ -691,5 +692,29 @@ list(
           mutate(.draw = .x)
       ) |> list_rbind()
     }
+  ),
+  tar_target(
+    pre_championship_estimates,
+    season_team_estimates |>
+      filter(season_week == '2024_21') |>
+      slice_estimates()
+  ),
+  tar_target(
+    championship_sims,
+    {
+      set.seed(1999)
+      map(
+        1:total_sims,
+        ~ simulate_playoff_after_semifinal(
+          playoff_teams,
+          estimates = pre_championship_estimates,
+          model = games_model |> extract_fit_engine(),
+          round_1_teams = c("Ohio State", "Texas", "Notre Dame", "Penn State"),
+          quarterfinal_teams = c("Ohio State", "Texas", "Notre Dame", "Penn State"),
+          semifinal_teams = c("Ohio State", "Notre Dame")
+        ) |>
+          mutate(.draw = .x)
+      ) |> list_rbind()
+    }
   )
 )