yesno.wtf is an on-chain, permissionless prediction-market protocol built on Solana.
It lets anyone create, trade, and resolve markets around real-world or on-chain events — like
“Will BTC exceed $100K by Dec 2025?”
Powered by an LMSR automated market maker, yesno.wtf transforms public opinion into quantifiable probabilities — enabling DAOs, DeFi protocols, and traders to turn beliefs into data.
🚧 Project Status: Active development.
| ⚙️ Feature | 💡 Description |
|---|---|
| Composable | Integrate probabilistic price feeds into any DeFi protocol or DAO. |
| Fast & Cheap | Built on Solana for sub-second trades and near-zero fees. |
| Always Liquid | LMSR AMM ensures continuous pricing for YES/NO shares. |
| Fully On-Chain | Permissionless creation, trading, and resolution. |
| Oracle-Agnostic | Supports trusted feeds (Pyth) or DAO-based voting. |
- MarketAccount (PDA) — stores metadata & oracle address
- OutcomeAccounts (YES/NO) — manage share supply & price
- LiquidityVault — holds collateral (e.g., USDC/SOL)
- LMSR Engine — on-chain cost function for dynamic pricing
[
C(q) = b \cdot \ln\left(\sum_i e^{q_i / b}\right)
]
where b = liquidity parameter, qᵢ = quantity of outcome i.
This ensures smooth pricing and infinite liquidity within bounded loss.
- Solana + Rust (Anchor)
- React / TypeScript Frontend
- SPL Tokens for outcome shares
- Pyth / DAO Oracles for resolution
- LiteSVM / Anchor / Surfpool localnet for testing
Building Solana’s prediction layer — turning events into on-chain primitives that power
governance, yield, and risk systems across DeFi.
