Discrete choice model for analyzing land use transitions across the contiguous United States, based on Mihiar (2018) and Mihiar & Lewis (2023).
This package implements the econometric land use change model that estimates transition probabilities between major land use categories (cropland, pasture, forest, urban, CRP) using:
- Multinomial/nested logit discrete choice models
- National Resources Inventory (NRI) plot-level data
- Land Capability Class (LCC) as primary land quality measure
- Net returns from companion rent estimation models
This model is part of a multi-repo system:
| Repository | Purpose |
|---|---|
| landuse-modeling (this repo) | Land use transition discrete choice model |
| ag-rents | Agricultural land rent estimation (cropland, pasture) |
| urban-rents | Urban/developed land rent estimation |
| forest-rents | Forest land rent estimation |
The rent models provide county-level net returns that serve as inputs to this land use change model.
# Clone repository
git clone <repository-url>
cd landuse-modeling
# Create virtual environment and install
uv venv
uv pip install -e ".[dev]"# Generate test data
uv run python -m landuse.data_generator
# Run estimation
uv run python -m landuse.main full config.json
# Run tests
uv run pytest tests/landuse-modeling/
├── src/landuse/ # Core Python package
│ ├── logit_estimation.py # Discrete choice model estimation
│ ├── climate_impact.py # Climate scenario analysis
│ ├── marginal_effects.py # Elasticity calculations
│ ├── crp_enrollment.py # CRP-specific modeling
│ ├── data_converter.py # NRI data processing
│ └── main.py # CLI entry point
├── tests/ # Test suite
├── docs/ # Technical documentation
├── scripts/ # Utility and analysis scripts
├── data/ # Test and sample data
├── reference/ # NRI layout and specs
├── archive/ # Original R scripts
└── examples/ # Usage examples
See CLAUDE.md for detailed documentation on:
- Model architecture and econometric specification
- Data sources and variables
- Key findings from original research
- Planned updates and extensions
- Mihiar, C. (2018). "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Forest Land Value and Broad Land-use Change." PhD Dissertation, Oregon State University.
- Mihiar, C.M., and D.J. Lewis (2023). "An empirical analysis of U.S. land-use change under multiple climate change scenarios." Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 2: 597-611.
- Lubowski, R.N., A.J. Plantinga, and R.N. Stavins (2006). "Land-use change and carbon sinks." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51(2): 135-152.
MIT