The model aims to explore the evolution of the dwelling stock and its energy consumption and WLC emissions based on scenarios. It deals with new construction, renovation and demolition.
Once the surface and energy consumption (in kWhef) are calculated, the model enables to calculate the operational and embodied GHGE year by year by 2050.
The baseline values for embodied GHGE are taken from a statistical analysis of the OPEE database (RE2020). The values are calculated per dwelling type (individual or collective).
We take values from the 'A' and 'B' phase for contributeurs = 'composants' and 'chantiers'
We take values by 'lots'. The number of targeted lots is different depending on the renovation operations, in this case the number of EPC label jumps.
We take values from the 'C' phase for contributeurs = 'composants' and 'chantiers'
- High renovation scenario (HRS) : 750 000 equivalent dwellings renovated per year = 23 250 000 dwellings on the period = 67% of the actual dwelling stock
- Medium renovation scenario (MRS) : 250 000 equivalent dwellings renovated per year = 7 750 000 dwellings on the period = 22% of the actual dwelling stock
We assume that the renovation touches the different dwellings types at their current proportion in the dwelling stock in number of dwellings (e.g. 55% individual, 45% collective).
- Constant : constant increase from 2022 to 2050
- Linear : linear increase from 2022 to 2050
- PLateau : high increase from 2022 to 2040, then plateau from 2040 to 2050
Data for 2020, 2021 and 2022 are from the Effinergie+ database (https://www.effinergie.org/web/images/attach/base_doc/3318/20230719_tableau%20de%20bord.pdf). It only accounts for 'BBC renovation' : 31 000 dwellings in 2020, 41 000 dwellings in 2021, 43 000 dwellings in 2022 The data for 2022 to 2050 are generated by the distributions_scenarios.py.
The renovation starts with the lowest EPC label (G) and goes up to the highest EPC label (A). Within each EPC label, the targeting order of energy carriers is the following : ['ep_kwh_charbon', 'ep_kwh_fioul', 'ep_kwh_gpl', 'ep_kwh_gaz', 'ep_kwh_elec', 'ep_kwh_bois', 'ep_kwh_rcu']
- For collective dwelling : 80% of the dwellings are connected to electricity (elec) and 20% to district heating (rcu)
- For individual dwelling : 80% of the dwellings are connected to electricity (elec) and 20% to biomass (bois)
- High Demolition scenario (HDS) : All dwellings that do not reach at least C label after renovation + GC + FC --> 150 000 equivalent dwellings renovated per year.
- Medium Demolition scenario (MDS) : All dwellings that do not reach at least C label after renovation + GC --> 90 000 equivalent dwellings renovated per year.
We demolish dwellings in the % of dwelling type in the dwelling stock today (e.g. 55% individual, 45% collective).
We assume 80% of individual dwelling are connected to electricity (elec) and 20% to biomass (bois). We assume 80% of collective dwelling are connected to electricity (elec) and 20% to district heating (rcu).
The energy carriers that are modified are the following : electricity (elec), district heating (rcu), natural gas (gaz).
- Constant scenario : constant values from 2020 to 2050
- SNBC scenario : average value from RTE's scenario for elec, values from ADEME's scenario for gaz. For rcu, we assume that the values follow the same trend as gaz.
- Half scenario : a 'Middle of the road' scenario, with values between 'Constant' and 'SNBC' scenarios
For new construction, the embodied GHGE limit values are taken from the RE2020 from 2022 to 2031. From there, 2 scenarios are constructed :
- RE2020 pathway : It is assumed that the values reach a plateau in 2031 and stay constant until 2050.
- RE2020 + pathways : The values continue to decrease from 2031, and follow the same trend as the one from 2022 and 2031.