Polymarket Arbitrage Bot (BTC / ETH / SOL Price Market Arbitrage Bot)

Fully automated arbitrage bot that captures guaranteed profit from Polymarket's 15-minute Up/Down prediction markets. It buys both YES and NO sides at a combined cost below $1.00, then collects $1.00 when the market resolves — pocketing the spread every 15 minutes.

How It Makes Money

Every 15 minutes, Polymarket opens binary markets like "Will BTC go Up or Down?". Each market has two tokens — YES and NO — that each resolve to exactly $1.00 or $0.00.

The bot exploits a simple math fact: if you buy YES at $0.47 and NO at $0.47, you spend $0.94 total. One side always wins and pays $1.00. That's $0.06 profit per share, risk-free.

Buy 5 YES shares @ $0.47  =  $2.35
Buy 5 NO  shares @ $0.47  =  $2.35
                     Total =  $4.70

Market resolves → winning side pays $1.00 × 5 = $5.00
Profit = $5.00 − $4.70 = $0.30 per cycle (6.4% return in 15 min)

The bot runs 24/7, executing this strategy every 15 minutes across multiple markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP).

Supported Markets

This version of the bot is configured for BTC, ETH, and SOL 15-minute Up/Down markets on Polymarket.

Features

• Guaranteed Profit — Both sides of a binary market are purchased; one always wins
• Sub-second Execution — 50ms polling loop with fire-and-forget order placement
• Smart Entry Timing — Three independent buy triggers (reversal, depth discount, time-based)
• Adaptive Polling — Speeds up to 100ms when opportunities are detected, slows to 2s when idle
• Dynamic Thresholds — Automatically adjusts second-side entry based on first-side fill price
• State Persistence — Resumes mid-hedge after restarts without losing position tracking
• Risk Guards — Max cost cap (sumAvg < $0.99), minimum balance check, stale order cleanup
• Full Logging — Every trade, price tick, and decision logged to daily rotating files

Quick Start

Prerequisites

• Node.js 18+ with ts-node
• A Polygon wallet funded with USDC
• Polymarket API credentials (auto-generated on first run)

Install

git clone <repository-url>
cd polymarket-trading-bot
npm install

Configure

Copy the example environment file and set your private key:

cp .env.example .env

PRIVATE_KEY=your_polygon_wallet_private_key

TRADE_MARKETS=btc,eth,sol
TRADE_THRESHOLD=0.47
TRADE_SHARES=5
MAX_BUYS_PER_SIDE=1

Run

npm start

The bot will:

1. Generate API credentials (first run only)
2. Approve USDC allowances on Polymarket contracts
3. Wait until your wallet has at least $1 USDC available
4. Begin the arbitrage loop

Configuration Reference

Core Settings

Variable	Default	Description
PRIVATE_KEY	required	Polygon wallet private key
TRADE_MARKETS	btc,eth,sol	Markets to trade (comma-separated: btc,eth,sol)
TRADE_THRESHOLD	0.47	Entry price — buy when a token drops below this
TRADE_SHARES	5	Number of shares per buy
MAX_BUYS_PER_SIDE	1	Maximum buys per side per 15m cycle
TRADE_MAX_SUM_AVG	0.99	Max combined avg price (above this = no profit)
TRADE_TICK_SIZE	0.01	Price precision for orders

Speed Tuning

Variable	Default	Description
TRADE_POLL_MS	50	Main loop interval (milliseconds)
TRADE_MIN_POLL_MS	100	Fastest adaptive poll rate
TRADE_MAX_POLL_MS	2000	Slowest adaptive poll rate
TRADE_FIRE_AND_FORGET	true	Place orders without waiting for confirmation
TRADE_PRICE_BUFFER	0.05	Cents above midpoint to ensure fill
TRADE_USE_FAK	true	Fill-and-Kill orders for instant execution

Entry Triggers

Variable	Default	Description
REVERSAL_DELTA	0.02	Price bounce from bottom to trigger buy
TRADE_DEPTH_BUY_DISCOUNT_PERCENT	0.02	Buy if price drops this % below tracked low
TRADE_SECOND_SIDE_BUFFER	0.003	Buffer for opposite side entry
TRADE_DYNAMIC_THRESHOLD_BOOST	0.04	Extra cents added to second-side threshold

Timing

Variable	Default	Description
TRADE_WAIT_FOR_NEXT_MARKET_START	false	Wait for next 15m boundary before starting
TRADE_ORDER_CHECK_DELAY_MS	100	Delay before first order status check
TRADE_ORDER_RETRY_DELAY_MS	300	Delay between order status retries
TRADE_ORDER_MAX_ATTEMPTS	2	Max retries for order confirmation

Trading Logic

The 15-Minute Cycle

:00 ──── Market opens ─────────────────────── :15
  │                                              │
  │  Poll midpoint prices every 50ms             │
  │  Wait for YES or NO to drop below $0.47      │
  │                                              │
  │  Token drops → start tracking lowest price   │
  │                                              │
  │  Trigger fires → BUY first side              │
  │  Switch to opposite side                     │
  │  Trigger fires → BUY second side             │
  │                                              │
  │  ✓ Hedge complete — wait for resolution      │
  │                                              │
  :15 ── Market resolves → $1.00 payout ────────

Three Buy Triggers

The bot uses three independent triggers. Whichever fires first executes the buy:

1. Reversal Detection Price dropped to a local minimum, then bounced back up by REVERSAL_DELTA ($0.02). This confirms the bottom and buys on the way back up.

2. Depth Discount Price fell more than DEPTH_BUY_DISCOUNT_PERCENT (2%) below the tracked low. This catches fast crashes where waiting for a reversal would miss the opportunity.

3. Time Threshold (second side only) After buying one side, if the opposite side stays below its dynamic threshold for 200ms, buy immediately. Prevents missing the second side during slow price movement.

Second Side Entry

After the first buy, the bot calculates a dynamic threshold for the opposite side:

secondSideThreshold = (1 - firstBuyPrice) + dynamicThresholdBoost

Example: Bought YES at $0.47
  → Buy NO when price ≤ 1 - 0.47 + 0.04 = $0.57

This ensures the combined cost stays well below $1.00.

Profit Protection

Before every buy, the bot checks:

avgPriceYES + avgPriceNO < TRADE_MAX_SUM_AVG ($0.99)

If the combined average would exceed $0.99, the buy is skipped — there's no profit margin left.

Project Structure

├── src/
│   ├── index.ts               # Entry point — startup sequence
│   ├── config/index.ts        # Environment config loader
│   ├── order-builder/
│   │   └── copytrade.ts       # Core arbitrage engine (CopytradeArbBot)
│   ├── providers/
│   │   └── clobclient.ts      # Polymarket CLOB API client
│   ├── security/
│   │   ├── allowance.ts       # USDC approval management
│   │   └── createCredential.ts
│   ├── utils/
│   │   ├── balance.ts         # Wallet balance polling
│   │   ├── holdings.ts        # Token position tracking
│   │   ├── logger.ts          # Colored console logger
│   │   └── console-file.ts    # File logging (daily rotation)
│   └── data/
│       ├── copytrade-state.json  # Persistent hedge state
│       └── token-holding.json    # Token position database
├── .env
├── package.json
└── tsconfig.json

Monitoring

The bot logs every action to both console and daily log files in logs/:

[INFO]  Starting the bot...
[INFO]  Credentials ready
[INFO]  Approving USDC allowances to Polymarket contracts...
[OK]    Wallet is funded
[INFO]  btc | YES=$0.52 NO=$0.48 — tracking NO (below $0.47)
[INFO]  btc | NO dropped to $0.44 (new low)
[INFO]  btc | REVERSAL triggered: NO bounced $0.02 from low → BUY
[OK]    btc | Bought 5 NO @ $0.46 — switching to YES side
[INFO]  btc | YES=$0.50 — below dynamic threshold $0.58
[OK]    btc | Bought 5 YES @ $0.50 — HEDGE COMPLETE
[INFO]  btc | Cost: $0.96/share — Guaranteed profit: $0.04 × 5 = $0.20

Arbitrage Results

Sample arbitrage outcome from a live trading cycle:

Scripts

Command	Description
npm start	Start the arbitrage bot
npm run redeem	Manually redeem a resolved market
npm run redeem:holdings	Auto-redeem all resolved positions
npm run balance:log	Log current wallet balances

Contact

Want a more profitable, private arbitrage trading bot? My private projects deliver higher returns with advanced strategies. Reach out for details.

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Disclaimer: Trading prediction markets carries risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always trade with funds you can afford to lose.