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Implement offline backtest simulation#4

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lee101 wants to merge 105 commits intomainfrom
codex/implement-fake-backtest-simulation
Open

Implement offline backtest simulation#4
lee101 wants to merge 105 commits intomainfrom
codex/implement-fake-backtest-simulation

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@lee101 lee101 commented May 22, 2025

Summary

  • add a FakeAlpaca shim for in-memory trading
  • create offline_backtest.py to run a two-week offline simulation
  • document how to run the offline backtest in the README

Testing

  • python -m pytest -q (fails: No module named pytest)

@lee101 lee101 force-pushed the main branch 2 times, most recently from 198c06f to 4b5c43f Compare March 24, 2026 07:45
lee101 added a commit that referenced this pull request Mar 25, 2026
#4 (+7295%)

Key discoveries:
- s507 (s501-600 range): +8290% ann at 5bps, Sortino=6.43, 5bps>8bps
- s404 (s401-500 range): +7295% ann at 5bps, Sortino=6.28, 5bps≈8bps≈10bps
- s602 (s601-700 range): +2594% ann at 5bps, Sortino=5.46
- s704 (s701-800 range): +1927% ann at 5bps, Sortino=5.36
- s507 and s404 saved to crypto70_champions/
- 46 seeds now ranked at 5bps (up from 34)
- Sweeps running: s121-200 (60/80), s201-300 (23/100), s301-400 (16/100),
  s401-500 (6/100), s501-600 (8/100), s601-700 (8/100), s701-800 (5/100)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
lee101 added a commit that referenced this pull request Mar 25, 2026
…s802 NEW #40 (+981%)

Additional champions beyond s404/s507/s609/s704 already committed:
- s410: +2945%@5bps, Sortino=5.76, 5bps>8bps very robust (second spike in s401-500)
- s802: +981%@5bps, Sortino=N/A (first s801-900 range find, very early)
- s506: +723%@5bps (solid but not exceptional)
- s801-900 sweep launched, monitor updated with champion save logic
- s701-800 monitor updated with champion save logic

Pattern confirmed: each 100-seed range produces 1-2 exceptional isolated spikes.
s401-500 is unusual with TWO champions (s404 #4 and s410 #21).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
lee101 added a commit that referenced this pull request Mar 25, 2026
…+3063%), s513/s804 ROBUST

New 5bps production champions discovered:
- s416 (s401-500): +4091% ann, Sortino=6.18, 5bps>8bps ROBUST — NEW #11!
- s321 (s301-400): +3063% ann, Sortino=5.07
- s513 (s501-600): +2525% ann, Sortino=5.50, 5bps>8bps ROBUST
- s804 (s801-900): +1943% ann, Sortino=5.19, 5bps>8bps ROBUST
- s192 (s121-200): +1886% ann, Sortino=4.67, 5bps>8bps ROBUST
- s415 (s401-500): +1757% ann, Sortino=4.79, 5bps>8bps ROBUST
- s807 (s801-900): +934% ann, Sortino=6.37, 5bps>8bps ROBUST (high Sortino!)
- s191 (s121-200): +1457% ann, Sortino=3.90, ROBUST

s401-500 is the HOTTEST range: s404(#4)+s416(#11)+s410(#21)+s415(#31) = 4 champions
Added crypto70_5bps_leaderboard.csv — automated 5bps production leaderboard

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
lee101 added a commit that referenced this pull request Mar 25, 2026
Updated top-10 5bps leaderboard (145 evaluated):
#4 s456: +8,802% (ultra-robust: 5bps > 8bps, Sortino=6.71)
#6 s452: +8,002% (ultra-robust: 5bps > 8bps, Sortino=6.65)
#7 s734: +7,160% (ultra-robust: 5bps > 8bps)
#10 s446: +6,536% (ultra-robust: 5bps > 8bps)
#15 s827: +4,801% (ultra-robust: 5bps > 8bps)

7 sweeps ongoing: s201-900 at 55-62% complete

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
lee101 added a commit that referenced this pull request Mar 25, 2026
Leaderboard updated (169 evaluated at 5bps):
#1 s275: +23,595% (Sortino=9.0, ultra-robust: 5bps > 8bps)
#2 s240: +17,642%
#3 s434: +10,359%
#4 s71:  +9,381%
#5 s456: +8,802% (new)
#6 s507: +8,273%
#7 s452: +8,002% (new)

Top-10 mean: +10,796% ann | 7/10 ultra-robust (5bps >= 8bps)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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