A collection of automated trading bots for Polymarket binary Up/Down markets, built in Rust. These bots exploit short-term mispricings in 5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour prediction markets across BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP.
This repository contains the 15-Minute Dump-and-Hedge Bot. Other bot strategies are available separately — see Get Other Bots below. Telegram: @gabagool21**
| # | Bot | Timeframe | Core Idea |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15min Dump & Hedge | 15 min | Detect a price dump, buy the dumped side, then hedge with the opposite side |
| 2 | 15min Pre-Order & Mid-Market | 15 min | Pre-place limit buys on both sides at low prices before the period starts |
| 3 | 1hour Pre-Limit Order | 1 hour | Pre-place limit buys on both sides, merge when both fill |
| 4 | 1hour Pre-Limit Order & Mid-Market | 1 hour | Pre-orders + dynamic mid-market orders in the current hour |
| 5 | 5min Pre-Order & Mid-Market | 5 min | Fast pre-orders on both sides for quick 5-minute markets |
| 6 | 5min High-Side Buy | 5 min | Buy the likely winner (90c+) late in the period, ride momentum |
| 7 | 5min Low-Side Buy | 5 min | Buy at 1-3c on both sides for asymmetric reversal payoffs |
5min-bot.mp4
15min.mp4
1hour-bot.1.mp4
This is the bot included in this repository.
Monitors 15-minute Up/Down markets and detects sudden price drops ("dumps"). When one side's ask price drops sharply (e.g. 15%+ in 3 seconds), the bot buys that side immediately. It then waits for the opposite side to become cheap enough that the combined cost is below a target (e.g. $0.95). If both legs fill, you hold both outcomes for under $1, guaranteeing profit at resolution ($1 payout). If the hedge doesn't come in time, a stop-loss kicks in.
Key parameters: dump threshold, hedge sum target, lookback window, stop-loss timing.
Strategy credit: Based on The Smart Ape's two-leg catching-and-hedging strategy for Polymarket BTC 15-minute UP/DOWN markets (original tweet · detailed write-up on Lookonchain). The Smart Ape's approach — detect a sharp dump on one side, buy it, then hedge by buying the opposite side when the combined cost is below $1 — achieved ~86% ROI in backtesting. This bot is a Rust implementation of that core idea with added stop-loss management, multi-asset support, and automatic redemption.
Real Results:
Places limit BUY orders for both Up and Down at a low price (e.g. $0.45 each) before the next 15-minute period starts. If both fill, total cost < $1 and profit is locked in. Also places mid-market orders in the current period using dynamic pricing derived from live sell prices. Signal-based filters skip orders when the market is already one-sided.
Key parameters: price limit, signal stable range, sell-opposite timing, danger price.
Real Results:
Targets 1-hour Up/Down markets. Places limit BUY orders on both sides at a fixed price before the next hour begins. When both sides fill, positions are merged (redeemed back to USDC) to lock in profit immediately without waiting for market resolution. Danger and timeout exits protect against one-sided fills.
Key parameters: price limit, merge logic, danger price, timeout.
Real Results:
Extends the 1-hour pre-limit strategy with dynamic mid-market orders during the current hour. The cheaper side is bought at its current sell price; the opposite side gets a small discount. Combined with pre-orders for the next hour, this maximizes fill opportunities. Same merge and risk management as the pre-limit bot.
Key parameters: price limit, opposite-side discount, mid-market enabled, signal.
Real Results:
Same concept as the 15-minute pre-order bot, adapted for the faster 5-minute markets. Places limit buys on both sides at low prices before the next period. The 5-minute timeframe means thinner liquidity and more frequent opportunities, but also requires faster signal evaluation and tighter risk management.
Key parameters: price limit, sell-opposite threshold and timing (in seconds), signal range.
Real Results:
When one side is strongly favored (bid >= 90c+) late in a 5-minute period, the bot buys that side — betting the market consensus is right with limited time to reverse. If the price drops below a floor, the bot sells or hedges with the opposite side. Per-asset configuration allows different thresholds and behaviors.
Key parameters: threshold, after seconds, sell-under price, hedge (opposite) enabled.
Real Results:
Places limit buys at very low prices (1c, 2c, 3c) on both Up and Down. Each fill is a cheap lottery ticket: risk 1-3c to potentially make 97-99c if that side wins. Take-profit tiers (e.g. sell 50% at 10c, rest at 15c) lock in multi-x returns even without holding to expiry. Unfilled orders are automatically cancelled near market close.
Key parameters: entry prices, take-profit tiers, cancel-unfilled timing.
Real Results:
This repository contains the 15-Minute Dump-and-Hedge Bot. Below is everything you need to get it running.
- Rust (e.g. 1.70+): install from rustup.rs
- Polymarket account and API credentials (for production)
- Proxy wallet and private key (for signing and redeeming)
Configuration is in config.json (path overridable with --config).
{
....
}cargo build --releaseSimulation (no real orders):
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --simulationProduction (live trading):
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --production --config config.jsonAfter a 15m market resolves, redeem winning positions:
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --redeem --config config.jsonRedeem a specific condition:
./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot --redeem --condition-id 0x... --config config.json// ecosystem.config.cjs
module.exports = {
apps: [{
name: "polymarket-bot",
script: "./target/release/polymarket-arbitrage-bot",
args: "--production --config config.json",
cwd: __dirname,
interpreter: "none",
autorestart: true,
watch: false,
max_memory_restart: "500M",
}],
};pm2 start ecosystem.config.cjs
pm2 logs polymarket-bot- Stderr: Main log stream (info level).
history.toml: Append-only run log in the working directory.- RUST_LOG:
RUST_LOG=info(default) orRUST_LOG=debugfor more detail.
Configured via trading.markets in config.json:
btc— Bitcoin 15m Up/Downeth— Ethereum 15m Up/Downsol— Solana 15m Up/Downxrp— XRP 15m Up/Down
- Never commit real keys. Keep
config.jsonout of version control. private_keycontrols funds; restrict file permissions and use a dedicated trading wallet.
| Path | Purpose |
|---|---|
config.json |
Polymarket and trading settings |
src/main.rs |
Entry point, CLI, market discovery, redeem |
src/dump_hedge_trader.rs |
Dump-and-hedge strategy and state |
src/monitor.rs |
Market data (API/WebSocket) and snapshots |
src/api.rs |
Polymarket CLOB/Gamma API client |
src/config.rs |
Config and CLI parsing |
src/models.rs |
Market/token data structures |
docs/ |
Detailed strategy documentation for all bots |
This repository only includes the 15-Minute Dump-and-Hedge Bot.
If you are interested in any of the other strategies:
- 15-Minute Pre-Order & Mid-Market Bot
- 1-Hour Pre-Limit Order Bot
- 1-Hour Pre-Limit Order & Mid-Market Bot
- 5-Minute Pre-Order & Mid-Market Bot
- 5-Minute High-Side Buy Bot
- 5-Minute Low-Side Buy Bot
Please contact me on Telegram: @gabagool21
These bots are for educational and research purposes. Trading on prediction markets involves risk. Use at your own risk; the authors are not responsible for financial losses. Always test with simulation_mode: true and small sizes before live trading.