rilear

CAVE All calculations are preliminary, there has been no validation as of now.

Background

R package for assessing the lifetime excess absolute risk from radiation exposure. Based on models for excess relative and excess absolute cancer risk for external exposure. Risk measures include LAR / LEAR / CER, REID / REIC, ELR, and RADS. Supports multiple exposure events and simultaneous application to a whole population to project total number of expected cancer cases.

Goals

A tool similar to NCI RadRAT and LARisk, even if rilear will not be as sophisticated. However, it may be more flexible and useful for certain applications. Detailed goals:

• Implement lifetime risk measures LEAR / LAR / CER, REID / REIC, ELR, RADS
• Multiple exposure events, each with own dose distribution
• Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty for risk model coefficient estimates, dose distribution, ERR-EAR weights for risk transfer, DDREF, and the latency function
• Possibility to define ERR / EAR risk models for cancer sites and flexibly use these models for risk calculation
• Possibility to use own data for baseline cancer (mortality) rates, baseline overall mortality
• Possibility to calculate expected lifetime excess cancer risk for a whole exposed population, including expected absolute number of cases

Input data

• ERR / EAR risk models: excess risk function, parameter estimates & covariance matrix
• Baseline life table / overall mortality rates (stratified by sex, age group)
• Baseline cancer rates (stratified by sex, age group)
• Baseline cancer mortality rates (stratified by sex, age group) - for REID / REIC, ELR, RADS
• Population data (stratified by sex, age group)

Included risk models

• rm_solid_incid_walsh2021(): Solid cancer incidence from Walsh et al. 2021
• rm_breast_incid_walsh2021(): Breast cancer incidence from Walsh et al. 2021
• rm_leuk_incid_walsh2021(): Leukemia / lymphoma incidence from Walsh et al. 2021
• rm_solid_incid_sumray(): Solid cancer incidence from Sasaki et al. 2023
• rm_solid_mort_sumray(): Solid cancer mortality from Sasaki et al. 2023

Included cancer rates

All stratified by sex, age group. Interpolated for individual years of age.

Incidence

• d_cancer_ger_incid_solidW_i: Solid cancer incidence Germany 2023 - excluding C44 (RKI)
• d_cancer_ger_incid_solid_c44W_i: Solid cancer incidence Germany 2023 - including C44 (RKI)
• d_cancer_ger_incid_breastW_i: Breast cancer incidence Germany 2023 (RKI)
• d_cancer_ger_incid_leuk_lymphW_i: Leukemia / lymphoma incidence Germany 2023 - including CLL (C91.1, C91.4) / ATL (C91.5) (RKI)

Mortality

• d_cancer_ger_mort_solidW_i: Solid cancer mortality Germany 2024 - excluding C44 (RKI)
• d_cancer_ger_mort_breastW_i: Breast cancer mortality Germany 2024 (RKI)
• d_cancer_ger_mort_leuk_lymphW_i: Leukemia / lymphoma mortality Germany 2024 - including CLL (C91.1, C91.4) / ATL (C91.5) (RKI)

Included population data

All stratified by sex, age group.

Population

• d_pop_ger_country_2024L: Population Germany 2024 (destatis)
• d_pop_ger_fedstate_2024L: Population Germany federal states 2024 (destatis)
• d_pop_ger_district_2024L: Population Germany districts 2024 (destatis)

Mortality rates

Interpolated for individual years of age.

• d_mort_rate_ger_country_2024W_i: Mortality rates Germany 2024 (destatis)
• d_mort_rate_ger_fedstate_2017W_i: Mortality rates Germany federal states 2017 (destatis)
• d_mort_rate_ger_district_2017W_i: Mortality rates Germany districts 2017 (destatis)

Calculations

• Sommer et al. Radiat Res 2025. DOI: 10.1667/RADE-24-00060.1
• ProZES: Ulanowski et al. Radiat Environ Biophys 2020. DOI: 10.1007/s00411-020-00866-7
• RadRAT: Berrington de Gonzalez et al. JRP 2012. DOI: 10.1088/0952-4746/32/3/205
• Sasaki et al. J Radiat Prot Res 2023 DOI: 10.14407/jrpr.2022.00213
• Walsh et al. Radiat Environ Biophys 2019. DOI: 10.1007/s00411-021-00910-0
• LARisk: Lee et al. DOI: 10.32614/CRAN.package.LARisk