🔥 Torch

A decentralized, AI-powered prediction market protocol for crypto price discovery, built on Hedera

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📚 Table of Contents

• 🌍 What Is Torch?
• 💎 Value Proposition
• 🏁 Hackathon Scope
• 🧱 Monorepo Structure
• 📁 Projects Overview
• 💻 Tech Stack
• 📚 How It Works: TorchPredictionMarket Step-by-Step
  • 🧾 Step 1: Place Bets
  • 🧮 Step 2: Weighting Bets Based on Precision
  • 🔮 Step 3: Oracle Resolves Actual Price
  • ✅ Step 4: Contract Processes Results
  • 🏆 Step 5 – Winnings
• 🛠️ Installation
• 🤝 Team
• 🔗 Resources

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🌍 What Is Torch?

Torch is a decentralized prediction system for high-resolution, real-time crypto price forecasting.

Unlike conventional markets focused on binary outcomes (like Polymarket), Torch allows users to predict price ranges across future timepoints, creating a dynamic price–time probability surface.

Torch blends AI agents and human traders in an InfoFi-aligned ecosystem, rewarding early, sharp, and high-conviction predictions.

💎 Value Proposition

Problem	Torch’s Solution
❌ Crypto traders lack continuous, high-resolution price forecasts	✅ Torch builds a real-time price–time signal
❌ Existing markets (e.g. Polymarket) are binary or categorical	✅ Torch enables continuous predictions on a full probability surface
❌ Fragmented market signals and incentives	✅ Torch aligns humans and AI agents via economic incentives

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Hackathon Scope

We’re building a working Torch prototype as part of a hackathon.

• ✅ Core smart contracts for prediction lifecycle and payout logic
• ✅ Graph subgraph indexing for event querying
• ✅ Wallet authenticated frontend
• ✅ Realistic price resolution and reward distribution

📄 Functional & Contract Specs

Google Doc

🎨 Design & Frontend Specs

Google Doc

⚠️ Work in progress

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🧱 Monorepo Structure

torchpredictionmarket/
├── frontend/          # React Frontend
├── smartContracts/    # Hedera-compatible Solidity contracts
├── torch-subgraph/    # Subgraph indexing smart contract events
├── LICENSE
└── README.md          

📁 Projects Overview

Project	Description
frontend/	React frontend with wallet connect, core integration of Smart Contract & Subgraph, prediction UI
smartContracts/	Core Solidity smart contracts for placing, resolving, and claiming predictions
torch-subgraph/	Graph protocol subgraph for indexing BetPlaced, BetFinalized, and BetClaimed events

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💻 Tech Stack

Primary Development Framework: Hardhat

• Hardhat - EVM development environment and testing framework
• Javascript - Scripts to test smart contracts.
• Solidity - Smart contract programming language (version ^0.8.0)

Secondary Development Framework: Foundry

• Foundry - Alternative EVM development toolkit (Rust-based)
• Forge - Foundry's testing and deployment tool
• Cast - Foundry's command-line tool for interacting with smart contracts

Blockchain Network: Hedera

• Hedera Hashgraph - The target blockchain network
• Hedera JSON-RPC Relay - For interacting with Hedera network
• Hedera Local Node - For local development and testing
• HashScan for Transaction Monitoring - Track your smart contract deployments and interactions
• HashScan for Transaction History - Users can view their betting history and results

Frontend:

• React.js & Next.js - frontend frameworks for building user interfaces and server-side rendering
• TypeScript - for typed JavaScript development, improving code quality and maintainability
• GraphQL Apollo Client - to fetch queries and manage data state in the frontend
• CoinGecko API - to retrieve real-time cryptocurrency market data and price feeds
• Clerk - authentication and user management for admin access

Backend:

• GraphQL/Protocol** - for indexing smart contract data & building Subgraphs.
• Graph Node** - running on a VPS, to index Hedera network smart contract events.

Data Storage & Querying:

• PostgreSQL - database for graph-node’s indexing data.
• IPFS - decentralized storage used by the graph for metadata and manifests.

Development/Tools:

• Typescript & AssemblyScript
• Node.js
• Docker / Docker Compose

Version Control & Deployment:

• Github
• Hetzner VPS
• Vercel

Hosting

• Vercel {frontend} -Hetzner VPS {Subgraph Local Node}

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📚 How It Works: TorchPredictionMarket Step-by-Step

Example: Alice, Bob, and Charlie Predict HBAR’s Price for Tomorrow

🧾 Step 1: Place Bets

User	Predicted Range	USD Range	Bet	Sharpness	Expected
Alice	2900–3100 BPS	$0.29–0.31	10 HBAR	Tight	✅ Win
Bob	2700–3300 BPS	$0.27–0.33	10 HBAR	Wide	✅ Win
Charlie	3500–4000 BPS	$0.35–0.40	10 HBAR	Off-target	❌ Lose

🧮 Step 2: Weighting Bets Based on Precision

User	Width BPS	Sharpness Multiplier	Net Stake	Weight
Alice	200	0.5x	9.95 HBAR	4.975
Bob	600	0.3x	9.95 HBAR	2.985
Charlie	500	0.5x	9.95 HBAR	4.975

🔮 Step 3: Oracle Resolves Actual Price

setPriceForTimestamp(targetTimestamp, 3000);

✅ Step 4: Contract Processes Results

processBatch(targetTimestamp);

🏆 Step 5 – Winnings

User	Weight	Result	Winnings
Alice	4.975	✅ Win	18.66 HBAR
Bob	2.985	✅ Win	11.19 HBAR
Charlie	4.975	❌ Lose	0 HBAR

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🛠 Installation

🔐 Setup Environment

git clone https://github.com/denchik37/TorchOriginsHackathon
cd TorchOriginsHackathon

📦 Install Dependencies (per folder)

cd smartContracts && npm install
cd torch-subgraph && npm install
cd frontend && npm install

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🤝 Team

Name	Role	Contact / Profile
Denis Igin	PM, Marketing	GitHub
Balut Catalin-Mihai	Smart Contract Developer	Github
Sebastien Guibert	Blockchain Data Integration/Architect	Github
Sebastian Balaj	Frontend Developer	Github
Mohammad Hatif Osmani	Frontend Developer	Github

🔗 Resources

Resource	URL
🌐 Web	https://torch.bet
📄 Litepaper	https://torch-1.gitbook.io/litepaper
✍️ Blog	https://medium.com/torch-token-price-forecasting
🐦 X (Twitter)	https://x.com/torchbet

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