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252 changes: 226 additions & 26 deletions lab-intro-probability.ipynb
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -38,11 +38,35 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"np.float64(0.8844772466215439)"
]
},
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"#code here"
"from scipy.stats import binom\n",
"\n",
"n = 460\n",
"p = 0.03\n",
"\n",
"binom_dist= binom(n,p)\n",
"1- binom_dist.cdf(9)\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Con una probabilidad del 88% de que 450 o menos pasajeros se presenten al vuelo (es decir, que al menos 10 falten), Ironhack Airlines puede continuar con su política de sobreventa de 460 tickets con un riesgo moderado-bajo de denegar embarque. Sin embargo, existe un riesgo del 12% de tener overbooking."
]
},
{
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -72,11 +96,33 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 5,
"execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"np.float64(0.49)"
]
},
"execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from scipy.stats import geom\n",
"\n",
"p = 0.3\n",
"geom_dist = geom(p)\n",
"1 -geom_dist.cdf(2)\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"#code here"
"Existe una probabilidad de casi el 50% (49%) de que un agente necesite 3 o más intentos para resolver una incidencia."
]
},
{
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -107,11 +153,33 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 6,
"execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"np.float64(0.01289822084039205)"
]
},
"execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"#code here"
"from scipy.stats import poisson\n",
"\n",
"mu = 500 \n",
"dist = poisson(mu)\n",
"1 - dist.cdf(550)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"La probabilidad de que el servidor se sature en una hora cualquiera es muy baja (1.3%). Esto indica que la capacidad actual de 550 visitas/hora es adecuada para el tráfico promedio de 500 visitas/hora."
]
},
{
Expand All @@ -123,11 +191,34 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 7,
"execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"np.float64(0.2677043869515715)"
]
},
"execution_count": 10,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from scipy.stats import poisson\n",
"\n",
"mu = 500 \n",
"dist = poisson(mu)\n",
"prob_1h = dist.cdf(550)\n",
"1 - (prob_1h ** 24)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"#code here"
"La probabilidad acumulada de sufrir una saturación en algún momento del día es del 27%"
]
},
{
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -157,10 +248,37 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": []
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"np.float64(0.3934693402873666)"
]
},
"execution_count": 11,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from scipy.stats import expon\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"lambda_value = 0.1\n",
"\n",
"lambda_inv = expon(scale = 1/lambda_value)\n",
"\n",
"lambda_inv.cdf(5)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"la probabilidad exponencial de que un cliente llege en los proximos 5 minutos el del 39 %"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
Expand All @@ -173,10 +291,37 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": []
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"np.float64(0.2231301601484298)"
]
},
"execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from scipy.stats import expon\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"lambda_value = 0.1\n",
"\n",
"lambda_inv = expon(scale = 10)\n",
"\n",
"1 - lambda_inv.cdf(15)"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"La probabilidad de que pasen 15 minustos sin que llegue ningun cliente es de l22%, y el empleado podria tomarse un descanso de 5 minutos"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
Expand All @@ -196,11 +341,40 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"np.float64(0.6826894921370859)"
]
},
"execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"from scipy.stats import norm\n",
"\n",
"mean = 150\n",
"std = 10\n",
"\n",
"norm_dist = norm(loc = mean, scale = std)\n",
"norm_dist.cdf(160) - norm_dist.cdf(140)\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"#code here"
"La probabilidad de que pese entre 140 y 160 es de un 68 %"
]
},
{
Expand All @@ -219,17 +393,43 @@
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"execution_count": 26,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"np.float64(0.4511883639059735)"
]
},
"execution_count": 26,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"hour = expon(scale = 50)\n",
"\n",
"hour.cdf(30)\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"#code here"
"La probabilidad de que el componente electrico falle antes de las 30 primeras horas es de un 45"
]
}
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 3",
"display_name": "base",
"language": "python",
"name": "python3"
},
Expand All @@ -243,7 +443,7 @@
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.10.9"
"version": "3.13.5"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
Expand Down