Birding Fallout Predictor

Predict prime conditions for birding fallouts anywhere in the Lower 48 US States.

Live Demo: Deployed on Vercel

What is a Fallout?

A "fallout" occurs when migrating birds are forced to land due to adverse weather conditions. These events concentrate large numbers of birds in small areas, creating exceptional birding opportunities. Key factors include:

• Cold fronts - The primary driver, bringing wind shifts and precipitation
• Headwinds - North winds in spring, south winds in fall
• Precipitation - Rain forces birds to land
• Low visibility - Disorients nocturnal migrants

Features

• 7-day predictions for any location in the continental US
• Rule-based scoring (0-100) based on 6 weather factors
• Interactive map with click-to-predict functionality
• Real-time weather data from Open-Meteo API
• Known fallout sites highlighted for quick access

Quick Start

Local Development

# Install dependencies
npm install

# Run development server (frontend + API via Vercel dev)
npx vercel dev

# Or run just the frontend
npm run dev

API Endpoints

Predictions

GET /api/predictions?lat=29.5&lon=-94.5&days=7

Weather

GET /api/weather?lat=29.5&lon=-94.5&days=7

Hotspots

GET /api/hotspots

Scoring Algorithm

Factor	Max Points	Description
Front Passage	30	Cold front detection via pressure/temp changes
Wind	25	Headwinds opposing migration direction
Precipitation	20	Rain probability and amount
Pressure	10	Barometric pressure trends
Visibility	10	Cloud cover and visibility
Temperature	5	Extreme temperature effects

Score Interpretation:

• 0-20: Low - Normal conditions
• 21-40: Moderate - Some potential
• 41-60: Elevated - Good birding conditions
• 61-80: High - Strong fallout likely
• 81-100: Exceptional - Major event

Project Structure

birding-fallout-predictor/
├── api/                          # Vercel serverless functions
│   ├── predictions.py            # Prediction endpoint
│   ├── weather.py                # Weather endpoint
│   ├── hotspots.py               # Hotspot data
│   └── _utils/                   # Shared Python modules
│       ├── prediction_engine.py  # Core scoring algorithm
│       └── weather_service.py    # Open-Meteo client
├── src/                          # React frontend
│   ├── pages/
│   ├── components/
│   ├── hooks/
│   └── services/
├── index.html
├── package.json
├── vite.config.js
└── vercel.json

Tech Stack

• Hosting: Vercel (frontend + serverless functions)
• Frontend: React, Vite, Leaflet, Recharts, Tailwind CSS
• Backend: Python serverless functions
• Weather Data: Open-Meteo API (free, no key required)

Deployment

Push to GitHub and connect to Vercel for automatic deployments.

License

MIT