NOTE: This project has been succeeded by Feesim.
Model-based transaction fee estimation; this is a work in progress.
The general approach is:
- Model a miner's transaction selection policy as greedily adding txs according to feerate until max block size or min fee rate has been reached, whichever is earlier.
- Model the transaction arrivals as a poisson process, with each transaction having (feerate, size) independently drawn from a certain joint distribution.
- Estimate the model parameters and run a simulation to obtain the metrics of interest e.g. the wait / confirmation time of a transaction as a function of its fee rate.