ADB National-scale Climate Risk Assessment

This repository contains the code and analysis pipelines for a large-scale multi-hazard risk assessment of transport infrastructure, developed for the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The assessment covers three countries: Pakistan (PAK), Papua New Guinea (PNG), and Tajikistan (TJK).

The analysis includes direct damage estimation, network criticality and resilience analysis (percolation), accessibility modelling, and climate adaptation assessments across multiple natural hazards — including fluvial and pluvial flooding, earthquakes, landslides, and extreme heat.

Repository structure

adb-risk/
├── notebooks/
│   ├── PAK/          # Pakistan analysis notebooks
│   ├── PNG/          # Papua New Guinea analysis notebooks
│   └── TJK/          # Tajikistan analysis notebooks
└── src/              # Core Python scripts for hazard and accessibility modelling

Source code (src/)

Script	Description
run_flood.py	Flood damage estimation (Pakistan)
run_flood_png.py	Flood damage estimation (PNG)
run_eq.py	Earthquake damage estimation (Pakistan)
run_eq_png.py	Earthquake damage estimation (PNG)
run_landslide.py	Landslide damage estimation (Pakistan)
run_landslide_png.py	Landslide damage estimation (PNG)
run_accessibility_png_healthcare.py	Healthcare accessibility analysis (PNG)
run_accessibility_png_airport.py	Airport accessibility analysis (PNG)
criticality_TJK.py	Network criticality analysis (Tajikistan)
simplify.py	Network simplification utilities

Notebooks

Pakistan (notebooks/PAK/)

Notebook	Description
1_Risk_maps_PAK	Multi-hazard risk mapping
2a_PAK_accessibility	Accessibility modelling
2b_Accessibility_results	Accessibility results and visualisation
3_Percolation_Analysis_Main_Network	Network percolation / resilience analysis
4_Criticality_per_hazard	Single-hazard criticality assessment
4_Flood_Scenarios_Criticality	Flood-scenario-based criticality assessment
5a_fluvial_future_ead_adaptation	Future expected annual damages and adaptation (fluvial)
5b_pluvial_future_ead_adaptation	Future expected annual damages and adaptation (pluvial)

Papua New Guinea (notebooks/PNG/)

Notebook	Description
1a_Risk_maps_PNG	Multi-hazard risk mapping (present-day)
1b_Risk_maps_PNG_Future	Multi-hazard risk mapping (future climate)
1c_PNG_exposure_flooding	Flood exposure analysis
1d_PNG_direct_damage_EQ	Direct damage from earthquakes
1e_PNG_direct_damage_flooding	Direct damage from flooding
1f_PNG_direct_damage_landslides	Direct damage from landslides
1g_heat_data_analysis	Extreme heat data analysis
1h_combine_risks	Combined multi-hazard risk assessment
2a_Network Percolation_Analysis	Network percolation analysis
2b_Percolation_Analysis_Travis	Extended percolation analysis
3a_PNG_accessibility	Healthcare accessibility modelling
3b_PNG_accessibility-airports	Airport accessibility modelling
3c_Accessibility_results	Accessibility results and visualisation
3c_Criticality_per_hazard	Single-hazard criticality assessment
3d_Accessibility_results-airports	Airport accessibility results
4_fluvial_future_ead_adaptation	Future expected annual damages and adaptation (fluvial)

Tajikistan (notebooks/TJK/)

Notebook	Description
1a_Figures networks	Network visualisation and figures
1b_heat_data_analysis	Extreme heat data analysis
1c_rainfall_data_road	Rainfall data analysis for road network
2_flood_damage_pluvial	Pluvial flood damage estimation
3_flood_damage_fluvial	Fluvial flood damage estimation
4_landslides_figures_TJK	Landslide risk figures
5_earthquake_figures_TJK	Earthquake risk figures
6_MH_RISK_TJK	Combined multi-hazard risk assessment
7a_national_scale_percolation_testing	National-scale network percolation analysis
7b_percolation_results	Percolation results and visualisation
8a_TJK_Accessibility	Accessibility modelling
8b_Accessibility_results	Accessibility results and visualisation

Data

The input data (hazard maps, road networks, exposure layers, etc.) is not included in this repository.

Authors

• Elco Koks
• Sadhana Nirandjan
• Valentin Weiwad
• Surender Raj

License

This project is licensed under the terms of the LICENSE file.