polymarket politics bot

TypeScript/Node bot for politics prediction markets on Polymarket: elections, referendums, leadership, and policy. Implements value betting and arbitrage strategies.

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Politics market types

The bot trades binary Yes/No politics markets. You choose scope via POLITICS_TAG_ID (Gamma tag) or leave it empty for all active events.

Type	Examples
Elections	Presidential winner, Senate/House control, governor races, party nominee
Referendums	National votes, state ballots, Brexit-style outcomes
Leadership	Party leader, cabinet post, next Fed chair
Policy / events	Bill passage, veto, government shutdown, impeachment
International	Foreign elections, EU/UN votes, conflicts

• Single category: Set POLITICS_TAG_ID to the tag ID from GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/tags.
• All politics: Leave POLITICS_TAG_ID empty to scan all active events (any politics-related binary market).

Strategies

1. Value (edge betting)

• Idea: Buy when the market’s implied probability (best ask) is below your fair probability by at least a minimum edge.
• Logic: Place a limit BUY when ask < fair - POLITICS_VALUE_MIN_EDGE. Use polls, models, or external odds as fair value; set POLITICS_VALUE_FAIR_PROB for a global prior (default 0.5).
• Best for: When your view (or data) disagrees with the market; the bot executes when the market is “cheap” vs that view.

2. Arbitrage

• Idea: When ask_yes + ask_no < 1 - fee, buying both sides locks in profit (payout 1 per share).
• Logic: When the sum is below 1 - POLITICS_ARB_MIN_PROFIT, place BUY on both outcomes with sized stakes.
• Best for: Short-lived mispricings; use a small min profit to filter noise.

Setup

cd polymarket-politics-bot
npm install
cp .env.example .env
# Edit .env: POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY, POLYMARKET_FUNDER_ADDRESS, POLITICS_STRATEGY, POLITICS_TAG_ID (optional)
npm run dev

Config

Variable	Description
POLITICS_STRATEGY	value or arbitrage
POLITICS_TAG_ID	Gamma politics tag. Empty = all active events
POLITICS_VALUE_MIN_EDGE	Min edge for value (e.g. 0.02)
POLITICS_VALUE_FAIR_PROB	Optional fair prob (0–1). Default 0.5
POLITICS_STAKE_USD	Stake per order (USDC)
POLITICS_MAX_ORDER_USD	Cap per order (0 = no cap)
POLITICS_ARB_MIN_PROFIT	Min arb profit (e.g. 0.01)
POLITICS_DRY_RUN	If true, no real orders

Wallet/API: POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY, POLYMARKET_FUNDER_ADDRESS, optional API key or auto-derive.

Discovery

• Gamma API GET /events?tag_id=...&active=true&closed=false (or no tag for all).
• List tags: GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/tags to find the politics tag ID.
• Bot parses binary markets (Yes/No tokens) and runs the chosen strategy on each.

Disclaimer

No strategy guarantees profit. Value depends on accurate fair values; arbitrage is rare. Use POLITICS_DRY_RUN=true first.