polymarket finance bot

TypeScript/Node bot for finance and macro prediction markets on Polymarket. Uses a value (edge) strategy with liquidity-aware sizing and maker-first pricing. No arbitrage — profitability comes from trading only when the market is mispriced vs your view and from execution quality.

Contact me for more profitable bots

Why this is built to be profitable (without arbitrage)

1. Edge betting — We only BUY when the market’s implied probability (best ask) is below your fair value by at least FINANCE_VALUE_MIN_EDGE. So we only trade when there’s a real edge (you need a fair value from data or a model).
2. Liquidity filter — We skip markets where best-ask depth is below FINANCE_MIN_LIQUIDITY_USD. That avoids illiquid books where prices are noisy and fills are poor.
3. Liquidity-aware sizing — Order size is capped to FINANCE_LIQUIDITY_FRACTION of the best-ask depth (e.g. 25%). That limits market impact and improves fill quality instead of walking the book.
4. Maker-first — When possible we place at best bid + 1 tick (improving the bid) instead of crossing the spread. That provides liquidity and can improve fill probability and effective price.
5. Optional max edge — You can set FINANCE_VALUE_MAX_EDGE so we skip situations where the edge is unrealistically large (often a sign of stale or wrong data).

So profit comes from: only trading when you have edge + sizing and pricing that protect execution, not from “bid + sell < 1” arbitrage.

Finance market types

Type	Examples
Fed / rates	Fed fund rate at meeting, cut/hold/raise, number of cuts in a year
Inflation	CPI above/below X%, PCE, inflation direction
Employment	NFP, unemployment rate, jobless claims thresholds
Earnings / equities	S&P level, single-name earnings, sector performance
Crypto	BTC/ETH price levels, ETF flows, regulatory events
Macro	Recession Yes/No, GDP, PMI, central bank decisions

Set FINANCE_TAG_ID to a finance/macro tag from GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/tags, or leave empty to scan all active events.

Setup

cd polymarket-finance-bot
npm install
cp .env.example .env
# Edit .env: POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY, POLYMARKET_FUNDER_ADDRESS, FINANCE_* params
npm run dev

Config

Variable	Description
FINANCE_TAG_ID	Gamma tag for finance. Empty = all active events
FINANCE_VALUE_MIN_EDGE	Min edge to place (e.g. 0.02)
FINANCE_VALUE_MAX_EDGE	Optional. Skip if edge > this
FINANCE_VALUE_FAIR_PROB	Optional fair prob (0–1). Default 0.5
FINANCE_STAKE_USD	Base stake per order (USDC)
FINANCE_MAX_ORDER_USD	Cap per order (0 = no cap)
FINANCE_MIN_LIQUIDITY_USD	Min notional at best ask to trade
FINANCE_LIQUIDITY_FRACTION	Cap size to this fraction of ask depth (e.g. 0.25)
FINANCE_MAKER_FIRST	Place at best_bid+1 tick when possible
FINANCE_DRY_RUN	If true, no real orders

Wallet/API: POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY, POLYMARKET_FUNDER_ADDRESS, optional API key or auto-derive.

Discovery

• Gamma API GET /events?tag_id=...&active=true&closed=false.
• List tags: GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/tags.
• Bot parses binary (Yes/No) markets and runs the value strategy only.

Disclaimer

No strategy guarantees profit. Value depends on accurate fair values and execution. Use FINANCE_DRY_RUN=true first.