PMP.jl is a package to ease the estimation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) through various methods.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) guide (2009) define the PMP as "the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for a design watershed or a given storm area at a particular location at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends".
The documentation includes a tutorial on how to compute the PMP using different approaches:
- Moisture maximization (MoistureMaximization.md),
- Hershfield empirical method (OtherMethods.md),
- Univariate GEV method (OtherMethods.md),
- Beta method (BetaMethod.md).
The WMO (2009) describes in detail steps of the first two methods. The two other ones are statistical methods developped to alleviate flaws raised by the scientific community.
The documentation also includes julia notebooks that tests the beta method, which is a novel approach developped here. The 01-4params.ipynb and 02-3params.ipynb files test the 4 and 3 parameters Pearson type I models respectively, with standard parametrization and frequentist methods (method of moments, MLE, mixed method). The 03-3params-bayes folder gathers samples and files used to test two bayesian methods (Gibbs sampler, NUTS), and 04-reparam.ipynb tests the 3 parameters reparametrized Pearson type I model. Finally, 05-rain-data.ipynb and 06-usual-PMP-methods.ipynb compute PMP estimations on rain datasets observed at two stations (Pierre-Elliott-Trudeau airport of Montréal and St-Hubert) with the Beta method for the first file and moisture maximization and Hershfield empirical method for the second.