diff --git a/src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts b/src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts
index 291426fc69..f1a552f4f6 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts
@@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ const genPlayersWithoutSaving = async (
 	}
 
 	// Small chance of making top 4 players (in 70 player draft) special - on average, one per draft class
-	if (existingPlayers.length === 0) {
+	if (!isSport("basketball") && existingPlayers.length === 0) {
 		const numSpecialPlayerChances = Math.round((4 / 70) * numPlayers);
 
 		for (let i = 0; i < numSpecialPlayerChances; i++) {
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
index 94b7281dd9..e446ba6bc0 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
@@ -5,200 +5,38 @@ import type {
 	RatingKey,
 } from "../../../common/types.basketball";
 
-type RatingFormula = {
-	ageModifier: (age: number) => number;
-	changeLimits: (age: number) => [number, number];
-};
-
-const shootingFormula: RatingFormula = {
-	ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-		// Reverse most of the age-related decline in calcBaseChange
-		if (age <= 27) {
-			return 0;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 29) {
-			return 0.5;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 31) {
-			return 1.5;
-		}
-
-		return 2;
-	},
-	changeLimits: () => [-3, 13],
-};
-const iqFormula: RatingFormula = {
-	ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-		if (age <= 21) {
-			return 4;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 23) {
-			return 3;
-		}
-
-		// Reverse most of the age-related decline in calcBaseChange
-		if (age <= 27) {
-			return 0;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 29) {
-			return 0.5;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 31) {
-			return 1.5;
-		}
-
-		return 2;
-	},
-	changeLimits: age => {
-		if (age >= 24) {
-			return [-3, 9];
-		}
-
-		// For 19: [-3, 32]
-		// For 23: [-3, 12]
-		return [-3, 7 + 5 * (24 - age)];
-	},
-};
-const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, RatingFormula> = {
-	stre: {
-		ageModifier: () => 0,
-		changeLimits: () => [-Infinity, Infinity],
-	},
-	spd: {
-		ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-			if (age <= 27) {
-				return 0;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 30) {
-				return -2;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 35) {
-				return -3;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 40) {
-				return -4;
-			}
-
-			return -8;
-		},
-		changeLimits: () => [-12, 2],
-	},
-	jmp: {
-		ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-			if (age <= 26) {
-				return 0;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 30) {
-				return -3;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 35) {
-				return -4;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 40) {
-				return -5;
-			}
-
-			return -10;
-		},
-		changeLimits: () => [-12, 2],
-	},
-	endu: {
-		ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-			if (age <= 23) {
-				return random.uniform(0, 9);
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 30) {
-				return 0;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 35) {
-				return -2;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 40) {
-				return -4;
-			}
-
-			return -8;
-		},
-		changeLimits: () => [-11, 19],
-	},
-	dnk: {
-		ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-			// Like shootingForumla, except for old players
-			if (age <= 27) {
-				return 0;
-			}
-
-			return 0.5;
-		},
-		changeLimits: () => [-3, 13],
-	},
-	ins: shootingFormula,
-	ft: shootingFormula,
-	fg: shootingFormula,
-	tp: shootingFormula,
-	oiq: iqFormula,
-	diq: iqFormula,
-	drb: {
-		ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
-		changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
-	},
-	pss: {
-		ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
-		changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
-	},
-	reb: {
-		ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
-		changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
-	},
+// (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
+const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
+	diq: [0.008, -0.18, -0.0, 0.0012],
+	dnk: [0.006, -0.1601, -0.0009, 0.0317],
+	drb: [0.0087, -0.2156, 0.0, 0.0],
+	endu: [-0.0398, 1.0722, 0.0029, -0.0604],
+	fg: [0.0024, -0.0443, -0.0008, 0.054],
+	ft: [0.0052, -0.1124, -0.0012, 0.0704],
+	ins: [0.0027, -0.0933, -0.0006, 0.083],
+	jmp: [-0.0146, 0.2996, 0.0077, -0.1821],
+	oiq: [-0.0016, 0.0676, -0.0, 0.0012],
+	pss: [0.0062, -0.1502, -0.0, 0.0001],
+	reb: [0.0067, -0.1769, -0.0, 0.0006],
+	spd: [-0.0079, 0.1606, 0.0033, -0.0793],
+	stre: [-0.0019, 0.0375, 0.0, 0.0],
+	tp: [0.0079, -0.1909, -0.0025, 0.1013],
 };
 
 const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 	let val: number;
 
-	if (age <= 21) {
-		val = 2;
-	} else if (age <= 25) {
-		val = 1;
-	} else if (age <= 27) {
-		val = 0;
-	} else if (age <= 29) {
-		val = -1;
-	} else if (age <= 31) {
-		val = -2;
-	} else if (age <= 34) {
-		val = -3;
-	} else if (age <= 40) {
-		val = -4;
-	} else if (age <= 43) {
-		val = -5;
-	} else {
-		val = -6;
-	}
+	const base_coef = [-0.0148, 0.3846, -0.0001, 0.1659];
 
-	// Noise
-	if (age <= 23) {
-		val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 5), -4, 20);
-	} else if (age <= 25) {
-		val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 5), -4, 10);
-	} else {
-		val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 3), -2, 4);
-	}
+	val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
+	const std_base = base_coef[2] * age + base_coef[3];
+	const std_noise = helpers.bound(
+		random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, std_base)),
+		-0.1,
+		0.4,
+	);
+	val += std_noise;
 
-	// Modulate by coaching. g.get("numActiveTeams") doesn't exist when upgrading DB, but that doesn't matter
 	if (g.hasOwnProperty("numActiveTeams")) {
 		const numActiveTeams = g.get("numActiveTeams");
 		if (numActiveTeams > 1) {
@@ -230,21 +68,23 @@ const developSeason = (
 			ratings.hgt += 1;
 		}
 	}
+	const age_bounds = helpers.bound(age, 19, 50);
 
-	const baseChange = calcBaseChange(age, coachingRank);
+	const baseChange = calcBaseChange(age_bounds, coachingRank);
 
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(ratingsFormulas)) {
-		const ageModifier = ratingsFormulas[key].ageModifier(age);
-		const changeLimits = ratingsFormulas[key].changeLimits(age);
-
+		const ageModifier =
+			ratingsFormulas[key][0] * age_bounds + ratingsFormulas[key][1];
+		const ageStd =
+			ratingsFormulas[key][2] * age_bounds + ratingsFormulas[key][3];
+
+		const ageChange =
+			ageModifier +
+			helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, ageStd)), -0.4, 0.5);
 		ratings[key] = limitRating(
-			ratings[key] +
-				helpers.bound(
-					(baseChange + ageModifier) * random.uniform(0.4, 1.4),
-					changeLimits[0],
-					changeLimits[1],
-				),
+			(Math.sqrt(Math.max(1, ratings[key])) + baseChange + ageChange) ** 2,
 		);
+		//console.log(baseChange,ageChange);
 	}
 };
 
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
index e6fa9ac499..908a232761 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
@@ -2,46 +2,7 @@ import genFuzz from "./genFuzz";
 import heightToRating from "./heightToRating";
 import limitRating from "./limitRating";
 import { helpers, random } from "../../util";
-import type {
-	PlayerRatings,
-	RatingKey,
-} from "../../../common/types.basketball";
-
-const typeFactors: Record<
-	"point" | "wing" | "big",
-	Partial<Record<RatingKey, number>>
-> = {
-	point: {
-		jmp: 1.65,
-		spd: 1.65,
-		drb: 1.5,
-		pss: 1.5,
-		ft: 1.4,
-		fg: 1.4,
-		tp: 1.4,
-		oiq: 1.2,
-		endu: 1.4,
-	},
-	wing: {
-		drb: 1.2,
-		dnk: 1.5,
-		jmp: 1.4,
-		spd: 1.4,
-		ft: 1.2,
-		fg: 1.2,
-		tp: 1.2,
-	},
-	big: {
-		stre: 1.2,
-		ins: 1.6,
-		dnk: 1.5,
-		reb: 1.4,
-		ft: 0.8,
-		fg: 0.8,
-		tp: 0.8,
-		diq: 1.2,
-	},
-};
+import type { PlayerRatings } from "../../../common/types.basketball";
 
 /**
  * Generate initial ratings for a newly-created player.
@@ -66,87 +27,104 @@ const genRatings = (
 	const hgt = heightToRating(wingspanAdjust);
 	heightInInches = Math.round(heightInInches); // Pick type of player (point, wing, or big) based on height
 
-	const randType = Math.random();
-	let type: keyof typeof typeFactors;
+	const pca_comp = [
+		[
+			0.01144491, 0.18678923, -0.30245945, -0.11454368, -0.30940279,
+			-0.31179763, 0.39192477, 0.17167505, -0.33114137, -0.06918906,
+			-0.31791678, 0.18375956, -0.29565832, 0.12444836, -0.36355192,
+		],
+		[
+			0.26091959, 0.32038081, 0.22341533, 0.27030209, 0.08278275, 0.06169217,
+			0.00644845, 0.5170028, 0.07126779, 0.26298184, 0.29825086, 0.32866972,
+			0.06902588, 0.37508656, -0.1078734,
+		],
+		[
+			-0.1527201, 0.38744556, -0.26238251, 0.04986639, 0.28690744, 0.25874772,
+			0.33139227, 0.01208661, 0.25434695, 0.0442386, -0.46999709, -0.15012807,
+			0.22910478, 0.23225618, 0.2819238,
+		],
+	];
 
-	if (hgt >= 59) {
-		// 6'10" or taller
-		if (randType < 0.01) {
-			type = "point";
-		} else if (randType < 0.05) {
-			type = "wing";
-		} else {
-			type = "big";
-		}
-	} else if (hgt <= 33) {
-		// 6'3" or shorter
-		if (randType < 0.1) {
-			type = "wing";
-		} else {
-			type = "point";
-		}
-	} else {
-		// eslint-disable-next-line no-lonely-if
-		if (randType < 0.03) {
-			type = "point";
-		} else if (randType < 0.3) {
-			type = "big";
-		} else {
-			type = "wing";
-		}
-	}
+	const pca1 = 1.72 * hgt - 83.45 + random.realGauss(0, 0.015) - 0.8;
+	const pca2 = 0.01 * hgt - 0.48 + random.realGauss(0, 22.3) - 11.1;
+	const pca3 = 0.34 * hgt - 16.39 + random.realGauss(0, 0.19) + 1.8;
 
-	// Tall players are less talented, and all tend towards dumb and can't shoot because they are rookies
 	const rawRatings = {
-		stre: 37,
-		spd: 40,
-		jmp: 40,
-		endu: 17,
-		ins: 27,
-		dnk: 27,
-		ft: 32,
-		fg: 32,
-		tp: 32,
-		oiq: 22,
-		diq: 22,
-		drb: 37,
-		pss: 37,
-		reb: 37,
+		diq:
+			42.1 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][0] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][0] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][0],
+		dnk:
+			46.5 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][1] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][1] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][1],
+		drb:
+			50.5 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][2] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][2] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][2],
+		endu:
+			32.6 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][3] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][3] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][3],
+		fg:
+			42.5 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][4] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][4] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][4],
+		ft:
+			42.6 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][5] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][5] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][5],
+		hgt: hgt,
+		ins:
+			41.1 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][7] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][7] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][7],
+		jmp:
+			51.0 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][8] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][8] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][8],
+		oiq:
+			40.2 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][9] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][9] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][9],
+		pss:
+			47.3 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][10] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][10] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][10],
+		reb:
+			48.7 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][11] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][11] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][11],
+		spd:
+			51.4 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][12] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][12] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][12],
+		stre:
+			47.6 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][13] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][13] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][13],
+		tp:
+			44.9 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][14] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][14] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][14],
 	};
 
-	// For correlation across ratings, to ensure some awesome players, but athleticism and skill are independent to
-	// ensure there are some who are elite in one but not the other
-	const factorAthleticism = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
-	const factorShooting = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
-	const factorSkill = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
-	const factorIns = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
-	const athleticismRatings = ["stre", "spd", "jmp", "endu", "dnk"];
-	const shootingRatings = ["ft", "fg", "tp"];
-	const skillRatings = ["oiq", "diq", "drb", "pss", "reb"]; // ins purposely left out
-
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(rawRatings)) {
-		const typeFactor = typeFactors[type].hasOwnProperty(key)
-			? typeFactors[type][key]
-			: 1;
-		let factor = factorIns;
-
-		if (athleticismRatings.includes(key)) {
-			factor = factorAthleticism;
-		} else if (shootingRatings.includes(key)) {
-			factor = factorShooting;
-		} else if (skillRatings.includes(key)) {
-			factor = factorSkill;
-		}
-
-		// For TypeScript
-		// https://github.com/microsoft/TypeScript/issues/21732
-		if (typeFactor === undefined) {
-			throw new Error("Should never happen");
-		}
-
-		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(
-			factor * typeFactor * random.realGauss(rawRatings[key], 3),
-		);
+		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.81, 1.22));
 	}
 
 	const ratings = {
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts
index 4af809df14..e39dd8125d 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts
@@ -10,22 +10,22 @@ import type { PlayerRatings } from "../../../common/types.basketball";
 const ovr = (ratings: PlayerRatings): number => {
 	// See analysis/player-ovr-basketball
 	const r =
-		0.159 * (ratings.hgt - 47.5) +
-		0.0777 * (ratings.stre - 50.2) +
-		0.123 * (ratings.spd - 50.8) +
-		0.051 * (ratings.jmp - 48.7) +
-		0.0632 * (ratings.endu - 39.9) +
-		0.0126 * (ratings.ins - 42.4) +
-		0.0286 * (ratings.dnk - 49.5) +
-		0.0202 * (ratings.ft - 47.0) +
-		0.0726 * (ratings.tp - 47.1) +
-		0.133 * (ratings.oiq - 46.8) +
-		0.159 * (ratings.diq - 46.7) +
-		0.059 * (ratings.drb - 54.8) +
-		0.062 * (ratings.pss - 51.3) +
-		0.01 * (ratings.fg - 47.0) +
-		0.01 * (ratings.reb - 51.4) +
-		48.5;
+		0.0935 * ratings.diq +
+		0.042 * ratings.dnk +
+		0.0969 * ratings.drb +
+		0.00725 * ratings.endu +
+		-0.00948 * ratings.fg +
+		0.0488 * ratings.ft +
+		0.225 * ratings.hgt +
+		-0.0143 * ratings.ins +
+		0.0502 * ratings.jmp +
+		0.0974 * ratings.oiq +
+		0.0656 * ratings.pss +
+		0.0533 * ratings.reb +
+		0.156 * ratings.spd +
+		0.0962 * ratings.stre +
+		0.105 * ratings.tp +
+		-6.4;
 
 	// Fudge factor to keep ovr ratings the same as they used to be (back before 2018 ratings rescaling)
 	// +8 at 68