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Plan: Add Cumulative War Costs Since 1900 to cost-of-war.qmd

Overview

Add three new sections estimating cumulative (since 1900) costs that the chapter currently lacks:

  1. Cumulative property/environmental destruction
  2. Professionals killed (scientists, doctors, engineers, teachers, nurses, farmers, skilled trades)
  3. QALY-based value of all lost life-years

All estimates use simple back-of-envelope math with cited inputs. New parameters go in parameters.py.

Step 1: Add New Parameters to parameters.py

Cumulative deaths

  • WAR_DEATHS_SINCE_1900_TOTAL = 200,000,000 (Leitenberg/CISSM central estimate ~200M including democide, famine; source: necrometrics.com, Leitenberg 2006)

Professional workforce percentages (early-mid 20th century global averages)

  • WORKFORCE_PCT_PHYSICIANS = 0.3% (~0.3% of population were doctors/physicians)
  • WORKFORCE_PCT_NURSES_MIDWIVES = 0.4%
  • WORKFORCE_PCT_ENGINEERS = 0.2%
  • WORKFORCE_PCT_SCIENTISTS_RESEARCHERS = 0.1%
  • WORKFORCE_PCT_TEACHERS = 1.0%
  • WORKFORCE_PCT_FARMERS_AGRICULTURAL = 40% (but deaths among farmers proportional to general pop, so use general %)
  • WORKFORCE_PCT_SKILLED_TRADES = 3.0%

Actually, simpler approach: just use a single combined "professionals" percentage and multiply. The 20th century average across all countries: doctors (~0.3%), nurses (~0.4%), engineers (~0.2%), scientists (~0.1%), teachers (~1%), skilled trades (~3%) = ~5% combined professional class. But farming was 30-60% of population early 1900s. We'll note farmers separately since their % is so different.

Calculated parameters

  • WAR_PROFESSIONALS_KILLED_SINCE_1900 = 200M × 5% = 10,000,000 (conservative; doesn't account for targeting of educated classes)
  • WAR_DOCTORS_KILLED_SINCE_1900 = 200M × 0.3% = 600,000
  • WAR_ENGINEERS_KILLED_SINCE_1900 = 200M × 0.2% = 400,000
  • WAR_SCIENTISTS_KILLED_SINCE_1900 = 200M × 0.1% = 200,000
  • WAR_TEACHERS_KILLED_SINCE_1900 = 200M × 1.0% = 2,000,000
  • WAR_NURSES_KILLED_SINCE_1900 = 200M × 0.4% = 800,000

QALY calculation

  • Average age of war death: ~28 years (weighted: soldiers ~23, civilians older)
  • Average life expectancy mid-20th century: ~55 years (global weighted avg)
  • Years of life lost per death: 55 - 28 = 27 years
  • WAR_LIFE_YEARS_LOST_SINCE_1900 = 200M × 27 = 5.4 billion life-years
  • WAR_QALY_VALUE_SINCE_1900 = 5.4B × $150,000/QALY = $810 trillion
  • (Use existing STANDARD_ECONOMIC_QALY_VALUE_USD = $150,000)

Cumulative property/infrastructure destruction (major conflicts, 2024 dollars)

Sum of known estimates:

  • WWI: ~$5T (all belligerents, property + economic disruption)
  • WWII: ~$23T (Harrison, all belligerents property destruction + reconstruction)
  • Korea: ~$0.5T
  • Vietnam: ~$1T
  • Post-9/11 wars: ~$8T (Brown Costs of War project)
  • Other 20th-21st century conflicts (China civil war, Iran-Iraq, Congo, Syria, Ukraine, etc.): ~$5-10T
  • WAR_CUMULATIVE_PROPERTY_DESTRUCTION_SINCE_1900 = ~$45T (central estimate)

Cumulative environmental destruction

  • Current annual: $100B/year
  • Historical average (lower in early 1900s, higher recently): ~$30B/year average over 125 years
  • Plus one-time catastrophic events: nuclear testing ($500B remediation), Agent Orange ($100B+), Gulf War oil fires, DU contamination, Zone Rouge, etc.
  • WAR_CUMULATIVE_ENVIRONMENTAL_DAMAGE_SINCE_1900 = ~$5T (very rough)

Step 2: Add BibTeX Citations to references.bib

  • Leitenberg 2006 (CISSM deaths in wars 20th century) - already may exist
  • Necrometrics.com (Matthew White's 20th century death estimates)
  • Harrison 2000 (Economics of WWII)
  • Brown University Costs of War project
  • HHS 2024 QALY valuation ($150K standard)
  • NSF Science & Engineering workforce data

Step 3: Add New Sections to cost-of-war.qmd

Insert after "The Running Tab" section (line ~329) and before "Hidden Costs of War" (line ~332).

Section A: "The Historical Tab: Cumulative Destruction Since 1900"

  • Cumulative property destruction table by major conflict (~$45T total)
  • Cumulative environmental destruction estimate (~$5T)
  • Brief Wishonia-voice commentary

Section B: "The Brain Drain: Professionals Killed Since 1900"

  • Simple methodology: workforce % × 200M total deaths
  • Table: profession | workforce % | estimated killed
  • Note that this is conservative (educated classes were disproportionately targeted in Holocaust, Khmer Rouge, Cultural Revolution, Soviet purges)
  • Punchline: 200,000 scientists and 600,000 doctors. How many cures died with them?

Section C: "The Stolen Years: QALY Valuation of Lost Life"

  • 200M deaths × 27 avg years lost = 5.4 billion life-years
  • At $150,000/QALY = $810 trillion
  • Compare to $180T cumulative military spending: the lives destroyed were worth 4.5× what was spent destroying them
  • This is the ultimate ROI calculation: spend $180T, destroy $810T in human life value

Step 4: Run npm run generate:everything

Regenerate _variables.yml with new parameters.

Files Modified

  1. dih_models/parameters.py - new parameters
  2. references.bib - new citations (if needed)
  3. knowledge/problem/cost-of-war.qmd - three new sections