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_quarto-invisible-graveyard.yml
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project:
type: website
output-dir: _site/invisible-graveyard
execute-dir: project
resources:
- knowledge/data/
- assets/
- _redirects
- robots.txt
- llms.txt
render:
# Paper is copied to index.qmd by render script
- index.qmd
- knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.qmd
# Custom fields for render-quarto.py
dih-render:
emoji: "⚰️"
index-source: knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.qmd
redirect-from: https://invisible-graveyard.warondisease.org
fallback-404-redirect-domain: https://manual.WarOnDisease.org # Redirects here if path doesn't exist on this site
pdf-output-file: invisible-graveyard.pdf
netlify-site-id: "ef37ca63-13e5-4403-bf47-173763af79ab"
netlify-cname: "invisible-graveyard-warondisease-org.netlify.app"
show-confidence-intervals: true # Show 95% CI ranges for calculated values in academic papers
concept-terms:
- term: "Invisible Graveyard"
manual-target: knowledge/problem/fda-is-unsafe-and-ineffective.qmd
aliases:
- "mortality cost of FDA efficacy lag"
# Image generation prompts (used by scripts/images/generate-project-branding-images.ts)
favicon-prompt: "A gravestone with a pill on it."
profiles:
default:
dotenv:
allowEmptyValues: true
author:
- name: Mike P. Sinn
email: m@warondisease.org
orcid: 0009-0006-0212-1094
affiliations:
- name: "Institute for Accelerated Medicine"
url: https://acceleratedmedicine.org
website:
title: "The Invisible Graveyard: Quantifying the Mortality Cost of FDA Efficacy Lag"
description: 'After proving a drug is safe, the FDA requires 8.2 years to prove it works before patients can access it. We estimate this delay cost 102 million deaths among people waiting for approved drugs (1962-2024). The human cost in death and disability of blocking good drugs is 3.07k higher than the cost of approving bad ones.'
site-url: https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html
favicon: assets/icons/invisible-graveyard-favicon.png
page-navigation: true
page-footer:
left: "© 2025 [Institute for Accelerated Medicine](https://acceleratedmedicine.org) | [CC BY-NC 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)"
center: "[PDF](/invisible-graveyard.pdf) | [All Papers](https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/papers.html)"
right: "[VOTE](https://WarOnDisease.org)"
navbar:
right:
- text: "dFDA Framework"
href: https://dfda-spec.warondisease.org
- text: "Calculations"
href: knowledge/appendix/parameters-and-calculations.qmd
- text: "VOTE"
href: https://WarOnDisease.org
execute:
fig-path: "knowledge/figures/"
cache: false
freeze: auto # Only re-run cells when content changes
daemon: 300
daemon-restart: false
env:
PYTHONPATH: "."
metadata:
importance: 92
creator: "Mike P. Sinn"
orcid: "0009-0006-0212-1094"
primary-author: "Mike P. Sinn"
byline: "Mike P. Sinn"
human-author: "Mike P. Sinn"
author-email: "mike@warondisease.org"
author-url: "https://mikesinn.com"
author-website: "https://mikesinn.com"
contact: "mike@warondisease.org"
language: "en-US"
subject: "Regulatory Economics, FDA Policy, Drug Lag, Mortality Analysis, Cost-Benefit Analysis"
category: "Academic Paper, Health Economics, Regulatory Policy, Public Health"
coi-statement: "The author would like to disclose a personal bias against 102 million preventable deaths, which some may consider a conflict of interest in regulatory policy analysis. Beyond this, the author declares no competing interests."
data-availability: "All data and code used in this analysis are publicly available at https://github.com/wishonia/earth-optimization-protocol"
ethics-statement: "This research did not involve human subjects. The FDA's post-1962 efficacy requirements, which are its subject, involved 102 million of them."
funding: "This research received no funding from any agency. The FDA, whose policies are examined herein, did not offer to sponsor a review of its own mortality footprint."
github-profile: "https://github.com/mikepsinn"
linkedin: "https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikesinn"
orcid-url: "https://orcid.org/0009-0006-0212-1094"
google-scholar: "https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=RjDd_qcAAAAJ"
keywords:
- fda-regulation
- drug-lag
- kefauver-harris-amendments
- regulatory-delay
- type-ii-errors
- mortality-analysis
- cost-benefit-analysis
- pharmaceutical-regulation
- dalys
- efficacy-requirements
- peltzman
- regulatory-economics
version: "1.0"
edition: "Working Paper"
copyright: "© 2025 Mike P. Sinn"
copyright-year: "2025"
license: "CC BY-NC 4.0"
license-url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"
rights: "Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License"
publisher: "Institute for Accelerated Medicine"
publisher-url: "https://acceleratedmedicine.org"
publisher-name: "Mike P. Sinn"
publisher-email: "mike@warondisease.org"
repo-url: "https://github.com/wishonia/earth-optimization-protocol"
issue-url: "https://github.com/wishonia/earth-optimization-protocol/issues"
source-url: "https://github.com/wishonia/earth-optimization-protocol"
geographic-coverage: "Global"
audience: "Regulatory Economists, Health Policy Researchers, FDA Reform Advocates, Public Health Officials, Pharmaceutical Industry Analysts"
format: "Working Paper"
type: "Academic"
genre: "Health Economics, Regulatory Policy, Cost-Benefit Analysis"
medium: "Digital"
twitter-site: "https://x.com/warondisease"
twitter-creator: "https://x.com/warondisease"
og-site-name: "The Invisible Graveyard"
# Identifiers (update when paper is published)
# Zenodo Concept DOI (stable across all versions - use for citations and new versions)
doi: "10.5281/zenodo.18356231"
# Open Graph metadata
open-graph: true
image: "https://manual.warondisease.org/assets/og/invisible-graveyard-og-1200x630.jpg"
# Publication tracking
publishing:
own-site:
url: "https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html"
status: pending
preprints:
- platform: zenodo
status: auto-uploaded
url: "https://zenodo.org/record/18356231"
doi: "10.5281/zenodo.18356231"
- platform: ssrn
status: pending
url: ""
- platform: medrxiv
status: pending
url: ""
journals:
- name: "Journal of Law and Economics"
tier: 1
status: target
url: ""
- name: "Regulation (Cato Institute)"
tier: 2
status: target
url: ""
- name: "Health Economics"
tier: 2
status: target
url: ""
# Remove "Appendix" prefix
language:
crossref-apx-prefix: ""
section-title-appendices: ""
# Bibliography: Single source of truth for all citations
bibliography: references.bib
csl: nature-annotated.csl # Renders 'abstract' field (quotes) in bibliography
jupyter: dih-project-kernel
format:
html:
lightbox: auto
theme:
- cosmo
mermaid:
theme: neutral
echo: false
number-sections: true
toc: true
toc-depth: 3
css:
- styles.css
- economics-overrides.css
include-before-body:
- file: assets/html/page-loader.html
include-after-body:
- file: assets/html/site-enhancements-loader.html
include-in-footer:
- file: assets/html/generated-footer.html
include-in-header:
- text: |
<!-- Icons (project-specific) - TODO: Generate invisible-graveyard-specific icons -->
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="32x32" href="/assets/icons/favicon-32x32.png">
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="16x16" href="/assets/icons/favicon-16x16.png">
<link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="180x180" href="/assets/icons/apple-touch-icon.png">
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="192x192" href="/assets/icons/android-chrome-192x192.png">
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" sizes="512x512" href="/assets/icons/android-chrome-512x512.png">
- file: assets/html/google-analytics.html
- file: assets/html/hypothesis.html
- file: assets/html/fonts-preload.html
citation-hover: true
code-fold: true
link-citations: true
smooth-scroll: true
code-tools: false
filters: [assets/filters/live-version-note.lua]
pdf:
output-file: "invisible-graveyard.pdf"
documentclass: article
institute: "Institute for Accelerated Medicine"
echo: false
toc: true
toc-depth: 3
number-sections: true
colorlinks: true
link-citations: true
include-in-header:
- callout-bw.tex
- institute-header.tex
- text: |
\paperurl{https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/invisible-graveyard.html}
geometry:
- top=1in
- bottom=1in
- left=1in
- right=1in
fontsize: 11pt
date: ""
filters: [assets/filters/live-version-note.lua]