Monte Carlo Simulation

[ruilov]

anyone aware of projects that run monte carlo simulations of races based on fastf1 data (or other sources)? I'm thinking of building one but only if a good one that is publicly available doesn't exist. So far I found the following, but haven't spent much time with any of them:

• stratSim. Looks like a school project with Red Bull's help, which is cool. Their write up says Red Bull only runs a simulation on saturday night, not in real time, and lots of manual entry of inputs. Mind blowing! Although this is from a decade ago?
• pit stop simulator. Working but doesn't seem very good. This has a very similar UI but slightly different and in better shape.
• F1StrategySimulator. Old repo, no UI.
• race-simulation. Detailed simulator, no UI.
• notebook write up
• academic paper. Says they built a system, but doesn't seem to be available publicly
• F1_tire_degradation_strategy_predictor. Analysis of tyre degradation looks interesting.

[leaderdescar]

I've been doing research over the holidays for a good predictive model (not sure if you are looking for a full race simulation or just a prediction of results). There are some projects out there for predictions, but not sure of their quality. They did give me ideas of data to calculate and include in a model so at least there is that. I plan on building my own with an AI coding agent. Happy to pass a long what I found later when I am home.

[f1quant]

I've been building this website to do a clean air simulation of a race ie no track position considerations. Right now it includes a calculator which does the simulation (well, I use backward induction rather than a monte carlo simulation to calculate optimal strategy) and various tabs that estimate the parameters required for that simulation. It did a good job for Abu Dhabi last year, results summarized here. Incorporating track position would be a natural next step, but seems like a step up in complexity. It now also morphed into a data companion for me to watch races with, though I only have a replay mode, nothing in live real-time yet.

Fully built with AI so the code is a total mess and buggy (less buggy than if I had written by hand?), but generally works.

Would love to brainstorm and share results if you're thinking along similar lines.