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REFERENCES.md — Optimitron Source Material & References

Complete index of papers, schemas, APIs, standards, and data sources that inform the Optimitron codebase.


Table of Contents


Papers (Source of All Algorithms)

Every algorithm in this codebase originates from one of these papers. The local QMD source files contain exact formulas, worked examples, SQL schemas, and parameter justifications. Always read the relevant QMD before implementing.

Paper Package(s) Key Concepts Local QMD Web
dFDA Specification @optimitron/optimizer PIS methodology, temporal alignment (onset delay + duration of action), Bradford Hill scoring (9 criteria with saturation functions), effect size estimation, evidence grading (A–F), optimal value analysis knowledge/appendix/dfda-spec-paper.qmd dfda-spec.warondisease.org
Wishocracy @optimitron/wishocracy RAPPA (Randomized Aggregated Pairwise Preference Allocation), eigenvector preference weights via power iteration, Citizen Alignment Scores, consistency ratio (AHP CR), Floyd-Warshall matrix completion, bootstrap convergence analysis knowledge/appendix/wishocracy-paper.qmd wishocracy.warondisease.org
Optimocracy @optimitron/opg, @optimitron/obg Two-metric welfare function: W = α·IncomeGrowth + (1−α)·HealthyLifeYears knowledge/appendix/optimocracy-paper.qmd optimocracy.warondisease.org
Optimal Policy Generator @optimitron/opg Policy Impact Score, Causal Confidence Score (CCS), Bradford Hill for policy evaluation, method quality weights (RCT=1.0 → cross-sectional=0.25), jurisdiction analysis, policy recommendations (enact/replace/repeal/maintain) knowledge/appendix/optimal-policy-generator-spec.qmd opg.warondisease.org
Optimal Budget Generator @optimitron/obg Budget Impact Score (BIS), Optimal Spending Level (OSL) via log-linear and Michaelis-Menten saturation models, cost-effectiveness analysis (cost-per-QALY), diminishing returns modeling, spending gap analysis knowledge/appendix/optimal-budget-generator-spec.qmd obg.warondisease.org
Incentive Alignment Bonds @optimitron/treasury (Phase 5) IAB treasury mechanism, smart contract campaign funding, alignment-score-based automatic fund distribution, data contribution tokens knowledge/appendix/incentive-alignment-bonds-paper.qmd iab.warondisease.org

Local QMD source files are in the disease-eradication-plan repo:

https://github.com/mikepsinn/disease-eradication-plan/blob/main/knowledge/appendix/

Optimitron Schema (Legacy Reference)

The Optimitron schema (@optimitron/db) was inspired by the legacy PostgreSQL database. We extracted and modernized the essential models for the universal measurement system from the original 115-table schema.

Source Repository: mikepsinn/curedao-api

Schema Location: database/ddl/postgres-v0/public/

Table Mapping

Legacy DDL File Optimitron Model Purpose
measurements.sql Measurement Individual data points (timestamp, value, unit, source)
variables.sql GlobalVariable Canonical variable definitions (name, category, default unit, combination method)
user_variables.sql NOf1Variable Per-unit variable settings (onset delay, duration of action, filling type, personal stats)
units.sql Unit Unit definitions with conversion factors (mg, hours, rating/5, etc.)
variable_categories.sql VariableCategory Variable groupings (Treatments, Symptoms, Biomarkers, Foods, etc.)
tracking_reminders.sql TrackingReminder Scheduled measurement prompts
correlations.sql NOf1VariableRelationship Per-unit causal analysis results (PIS, effect size, optimal value)
aggregate_correlations.sql AggregateVariableRelationship Population-level aggregated causal analysis results

Note: The original legacy database has 115 tables covering OAuth, social features, purchases, studies, and more. We intentionally ported only the core measurement and analysis tables — the minimal set needed for the universal measurement system and causal inference pipeline.


Data APIs

External APIs used by @optimitron/data and planned integrations. See DATA_SOURCES.md for full dataset catalog with row counts and update frequencies.

Open APIs (No Key Required)

API URL Data Provided Used By
OECD SDMX JSON API data-explorer.oecd.org Government spending by COFOG function, health expenditure, tax rates (38 member countries) @optimitron/datasources/oecd.ts
World Bank Indicators API Docs GDP, life expectancy, mortality, education, Gini, unemployment, poverty (200+ countries, 1960–present) @optimitron/datasources/world-bank.ts
WHO GHO OData gho-odata-api Life expectancy, HALE, cause-of-death, healthcare spending, vaccination rates, risk factors @optimitron/data (planned)
USAspending.gov api.usaspending.gov Federal spending by budget function (aggregated, not transaction-level) @optimitron/data (planned)
openFDA open.fda.gov/apis Adverse event reports (FAERS, 15M+ records), drug labels, interactions @optimitron/data (planned, dFDA)
ClinicalTrials.gov data-api 400K+ clinical trial records and results @optimitron/data (planned, dFDA)

APIs Requiring Free Keys

API URL Data Provided Used By
FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) API Docs Median household income, CPI/inflation, employment, interest rates (US) @optimitron/data (planned)
Congress.gov API api.congress.gov US Congress roll call votes, member data, bill text @optimitron/data (planned, RAPPA alignment)
ProPublica Congress API Docs Congress votes (alternative, easier API), member profiles @optimitron/data (planned, RAPPA alignment)
OpenStates v3.openstates.org/docs State legislature members, votes, bills (all 50 US states) @optimitron/data (planned, state-level RAPPA)
BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) bls.gov/developers Employment, unemployment, wages (US, detailed) @optimitron/data (planned)

API Key Status

API Key Required Free Sign Up
World Bank No
OECD No
WHO GHO No
USAspending No
openFDA No
FRED Yes Sign up
BLS Yes Sign up
Congress.gov Yes Sign up
ProPublica Yes Sign up
OpenStates Yes Sign up

Health Data Standards

Standards referenced for data import/export and interoperability. Optimitron has its own schema (see @optimitron/db) — inspired by a prior project but redesigned for modern TypeScript, local-first architecture, and domain-agnostic use.

Standard URL Usage in Optimitron
FHIR R4 (HL7) hl7.org/fhir Import/export format for clinical data (Observations, Conditions, MedicationStatements). Maps to Measurement model on import. Not used as internal schema.
OMOP CDM (OHDSI) CommonDataModel Reference for observational health research. Informs our approach to variable standardization and outcome definitions.
Apple Health XML Apple HealthKit export format Layer 1 data import — parses export.xml into Measurement records. Supports HKQuantityType, HKCategoryType, workout data.
Google Health Connect Android Health Connect API Layer 1 data import — Android equivalent of Apple Health. Reads exercise, nutrition, sleep, vitals, body measurements.

Proof of Personhood / Identity

Layer 2 of the architecture. Enables anonymous but deduplicated contributions (one person = one vote/submission). User chooses their provider.

Provider URL Method Sybil Resistance Privacy
Holonym holonym.id ZK identity proofs from government ID High (gov ID + ZK) Strong (zero-knowledge, no data leaves device)
Gitcoin Passport passport.gitcoin.co Composable stamp-based scoring (social, on-chain, identity) Medium (stamp accumulation) Medium (pseudonymous)
Worldcoin / World ID worldcoin.org/world-id Iris biometric hash (Orb device) Very high (biometric uniqueness) Medium (biometric, hash stored)
human.tech human.tech Social graph proofs, decentralized identity Medium-high Strong (social proof, no biometrics)

Key properties for Layer 2:

  • Uniqueness — Each human can only submit once per time period
  • Unlinkability — Submissions cannot be linked to each other or to real identity
  • Revocability — User can rotate credentials without losing contribution history
  • Composability — Multiple proof methods can be combined for higher confidence

Crypto / On-Chain Infrastructure

Technologies for Layer 3 (on-chain submission) and Layer 5 (incentives).

Local-First Database

Technology URL Purpose
PGlite (Postgres in browser) electric-sql.com/product/pglite Run full PostgreSQL in WebAssembly for Layer 1 local storage — enables complex queries on device without a server
cr-sqlite (CRDT sync) vlcn.io/docs/cr-sqlite/intro Conflict-free replicated SQLite for peer-to-peer data sync between user devices

Smart Contracts

Existing Solidity contracts from the Wishocracy repo serve as a starting point for Phase 5 (Incentive Alignment Bonds):

https://github.com/mikepsinn/wishocracy/tree/main/contracts/
├── genie-dao-factory.sol    # DAO creation and governance
├── wish-ubi.sol             # Universal basic income distribution
└── wishing-well.sol         # Treasury and fund allocation

Phase 5 will need:

  • IAB Treasury contract (accepts donations, holds funds)
  • Alignment-score-based automatic fund distribution
  • Data contribution token (governance/utility)
  • On-chain data schema for effect sizes, preference weights, evidence grades

Mike's Economic Data

Repository: mikepsinn/economic-data

65 CSVs in Gapminder format (countries × years), ~2.6 MB total. Included in @optimitron/data as a git submodule at packages/data/economic-data/.

Dataset Categories

Category Files Examples
Health 8 Life expectancy, BMI, blood pressure, cholesterol, HIV deaths, suicide rates, smoking prevalence, alcohol consumption, sugar intake
Income 5 GDP per capita, national income, poverty rates (multiple thresholds)
Energy 11 CO2 emissions, coal, electricity, oil, gas, nuclear, hydroelectric — all per capita
Political 1 Military expenditure (SIPRI, 1949–2022)
Population Varies Country population, demographics
Culture Varies CPI, murder rates, other social indicators
Spending Varies Government expenditure breakdowns

Full catalog of all 60+ datasets is in packages/data/src/catalog.ts.


Additional Data Sources

These sources are referenced in DATA_SOURCES.md for future integration:

Source URL Data Notes
SIPRI (Military Expenditure) sipri.org/databases/milex Military spending, all countries, 1949–present CSV download
IMF Fiscal Data data.imf.org Government Finance Statistics Free API
Census Bureau (State/Local Finances) census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances US state-level spending by function Free API
IHME Global Burden of Disease ghdx.healthdata.org DALYs, disease burden by cause/country Download
CDC BRFSS data.cdc.gov US state-level health behaviors Free API
OECD Tax Database oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/tax-database Income, corporate, VAT rates by country CSV
OECD PISA oecd.org/pisa Education spending & test scores CSV (triennial)
Yale EPI epi.yale.edu Environmental Performance Index CSV (biennial)
Transparency International CPI transparency.org Corruption Perception Index CSV (annual)
Heritage Economic Freedom heritage.org/index Economic Freedom Index CSV (annual)

Cross-References

  • ARCHITECTURE.md — Five-layer system architecture, package dependency graph, phase roadmap
  • CLAUDE.md — Agent instructions, paper reading guide, implementation workflow
  • DATA_SOURCES.md — Full dataset catalog with row counts, frequencies, and API details

Last updated: 2026-02-06