session5.Rmd

---
title: "Consensus"
description: |
  The wisdom of experts
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = FALSE)
```

![Finding experts is no trivial business... <br> <span>photo by <a href="https://unsplash.com/@moraisr?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText">Rita Morais</a> on <a href="https://unsplash.com/s/photos/expert?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText">Unsplash</a></span>](photos/rita-morais-fJLyQ81u80Y-unsplash.jpg)

## Background Video

### Superforecasting

Are good forecasters born or made? How can one best design teams to produce better forecasts? 

In this session, we cover work from the *Good Judgment Project* that has focused on answering these and related questions. Check out an interview by Phil Tetlock and read **Mellers & Tetlock (2019).** (ca. 60 minutes) for an overview of the Good Judgment Project and its main insights.

<iframe width="560" height="515" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-07DJ7xVBis" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>

## Required Reading

Mellers, B. A. & Tetlock, P. E. (2019). From discipline-centered rivalries to solution-centered science. *American Psychologist, 74* (3), 290-300. [http://doi: 10.1037/amp0000429](https://github.com/matarui/ebdm/raw/main/docs/literature/MellersTetlock_2019_AP.pdf)

## Session Slides

![The wisdom of experts](presentations/EBDM_session5.pdf){width=700px height=500px}

<!-- ## Additional Resources -->

<!-- ### Further Reading -->

<!-- A popular science book on the Good Judgment Project is available:  -->

<!-- Tetlock, P.E. & Gardner, D. (2015). *Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction* Crown Publishers. [https://wsp.wharton.upenn.edu/book/superforecasting/](https://wsp.wharton.upenn.edu/book/superforecasting/) -->