DHCP lease files are incorrect on Big Sur as networking now uses OS-provided facilities. One must use vmrun to get the correct guest IP.
See here for details: docker-archive-public/docker.machine#4846
Fixed by docker-archive-public/docker.machine#4847, which should apply here without much work.
Ironic that Fusion 12.1 now includes this at commit aaccce5 (which can't work), as listed in acknowledgements.pdf:
docker-machine-driver-vmware- aaccce554f6a23a80205520ade5b928d47ee9dec