[Upstream #158] Are there any predictions that have been verified by subsequent events?

[ivanzud]

Upstream Issue Mirror

• Upstream issue: Are there any predictions that have been verified by subsequent events? 666ghj/MiroFish#158
• Upstream repository: 666ghj/MiroFish
• State: open
• Author: DuinoDu
• Labels: question
• Last updated: 2026-03-12T03:24:05Z

Summary

Awesome idea! I am wondering are there any predictions that have been verified by subsequent events?

Local Coverage

• Status: partial
• Summary: README.md, README-EN.md, README-RU.md, README-KO.md, and README-JA.md now document a repo-native forecast verification workflow, Step 4 surfaces both the stable report_id and simulation_id with direct copy actions, the homepage history modal keeps those same references together for later review, and both views now also copy a single structured verification bundle so users can preserve the paired references in one paste. Exported Step 4 Markdown still embeds the report/simulation/graph references directly in the file header, and it now also includes stable local report paths plus a localized manual verification checklist so the saved artifact stays actionable outside the UI. Users can export that Markdown from both Step 4 and the saved-history modal or reuse the files under backend/uploads/reports/<report_id>/ for later comparison against real-world outcomes. MiroFish still does not ship an automatic ground-truth ingester or scoring pipeline, so full backtesting remains tracked under beads issue mirofish-gytl.
• Local refs: .beads/issues.jsonl, README-EN.md, README-JA.md, README-KO.md, README.md, README-RU.md, backend/app/services/report_agent.py, backend/tests/test_report_agent.py, docs/upstream-triage.md, frontend/src/components/HistoryDatabase.vue, frontend/src/components/historyReportDownload.js, frontend/src/components/Step4Report.vue, frontend/src/components/verificationBundle.js, frontend/src/i18n/locales/en.js, frontend/src/i18n/locales/zh.js, frontend/tests/historyReportDownload.test.mjs, frontend/tests/verificationBundle.test.mjs, https://github.com/ivanzud/MiroFish/issues/95
• Notes: Mirrored into fork issue [Upstream #158] Are there any predictions that have been verified by subsequent events? #95 on March 12, 2026. The repo now documents how to preserve and revisit forecast evidence across the Chinese, English, Russian, Korean, and Japanese README set, exposes copyable report/simulation IDs in Step 4, surfaces the same references plus a direct Markdown export action in the history modal for later reuse, adds a one-click verification bundle copy in both Step 4 and history so those references can be preserved together, and makes the exported Markdown self-identifying with storage paths plus a manual checklist so the verification evidence survives outside the UI. It still does not automate outcome ingestion or accuracy scoring.

Recent Upstream Comments

• codetsang at 2026-03-12T03:24:05Z: Not yet? Maybe you should give it a try and validate the results. BTW, this is a prediction tool, so there are many uncertainties involved. It should be used more as an analysis or decision-support tool rather than a strict predictor.