Decision Risk Analyzerr

[hanakassahun]

Title: Build decision risk evaluation system

Goal:
Evaluate planned actions against historical behavior and flag risky decisions before execution.

Output:
Risk score + warning explanation.

[hanakassahun]

• 1. Data Model (Prisma/DB)

Add a DecisionLog table:
action: string
context: JSON (sleep, stress, active_projects, etc.)
outcome: enum/string (success, burnout, delay, regret, etc.)
productivity_drop: int
timestamp: DateTime

• 2. API Endpoint

POST /api/decision/evaluate
Input: planned action + current context (sleep, stress, active_projects, etc.)
Output: { riskScore, warnings, recommendedAlternative, explainability, [categoryScores], [futureSimulation], [confidence], [activeRiskLoad], ... }

• 3. Risk Calculation Engine (Node/TS)

For a given action/context:
Query similar past decisions (by action/context similarity)
Calculate risk factors:
Similar past failures (weight by recency/outcome)
Sleep deficit
Overcommitment (active projects)
Stress level
Emotional state
Sum weighted factors for risk score (0–100)
Optionally, break down by category (financial, emotional, execution, etc.)

• 4. Explainability Layer

For each risk factor, generate a human-readable explanation:
“You historically underperform when sleeping under 5 hours.”
“Managing more than 3 active projects increases your risk.”
“Similar decisions previously resulted in burnout.”
Return these as an array of explanations/warnings.

• 5. Advanced Features (Optional, Modular)

Category Profiling: Add risk per category in output.
Future Self Simulation: Heuristic-based outcome probabilities.
Pattern Drift Detection: Compare current context to past “bad” phases.
Confidence Score: Show how many similar events were found.
Challenge Me Mode: Allow override, log user’s reasoning.
Decision Debt Meter: Track cumulative risk of all active decisions.
Anti-Impulse Timer: If risk > threshold, require delay/confirmation.

Next Steps (MVP):

• Add DecisionLog model to Prisma schema and migrate.

• create backend service: evaluateDecisionRisk(context, action) that:

• Loads relevant history

• Computes risk score and explanations

• Returns structured result

• Add /api/decision/evaluate endpoint (Express/Next API route).

• Build a simple React UI to submit a planned action/context and display the risk score + explanations.