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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html>
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<meta name="generator" content="pandoc" />
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<title>Are Forest Conservation Programs a Cost-Effective Way to Fight Climate Change?</title>
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<div id="header">
<h1 class="title toc-ignore">Are Forest Conservation Programs a Cost-Effective Way to Fight Climate Change?</h1>
</div>
<p>Cutting down standing forest sends GHGs in the atmosphere, especially when the forest is replaced by crops. As a consequence, programs that pay landowners not to cut their standing forest might be an effective way to combat climate change, if they succeed in maintaining enough standing forest for a reasonbable amount of money.</p>
<p>In this section we report on the results of several studies that have estimated the additionality of Forest Conservation Programs in developing countries. Below is the estimated additionality of these programs:</p>
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="ForestPES_files/figure-html/add.FCP-1.png" alt="Additionality of Forest Conservation Program (in percent of forest cover saved per year)" width="480" />
<p class="caption">
Additionality of Forest Conservation Program (in percent of forest cover saved per year)
</p>
</div>
<p>The overall estimate is of 0.2 <span class="math inline">\(\pm\)</span> 0.01 additional percent of forest cover saved per year.</p>
<div id="caveats-and-open-questions" class="section level2">
<h2>Caveats and open questions</h2>
</div>
<div id="how-the-result-is-obtained" class="section level2">
<h2>How the result is obtained</h2>
<div id="individual-studies" class="section level3">
<h3>Individual studies</h3>
<p>The extensive search can be found <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gnJ_rneBShscuv5XfeVlm6fQDRu9PddSscYBRGlxLkI/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>. Their results can be found <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VWzAgaV3fRfk3mJDzt4y3fxInM5lWrygxebocAmdxtQ/edit?usp=sharing">here</a>. Below is the code sending the results of the individual studies to the SKY database (once each study will have its own page, this will not be needed anymore):</p>
<pre class="r"><code># dowlnloading and sending table with individual studies
data.FCP <- gsheet2tbl("https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VWzAgaV3fRfk3mJDzt4y3fxInM5lWrygxebocAmdxtQ/edit?usp=sharing")
colnames(data.FCP) <- c("paper.id","authors","year","add","se.add")
data.FCP <- as.data.frame(data.FCP)
dbWriteTable(SKY.db,'FCP',data.FCP,overwrite=TRUE)</code></pre>
</div>
<div id="meta-analysis-of-the-individual-studies" class="section level3">
<h3>Meta-analysis of the individual studies</h3>
<p>The meta-analysis is conducted using the fixed-effects method, assuming that the cost-effectiveness of Forest Conservation Programs is constant over time. This might be an unattractive asumption, since probably changes in prices might trigger changes in abatement costs. More estimates are needed in order to check whether this assumption is unlikely to hold. All the current evidence points to homogeneity of abatement costs over time, with the limited precision that we have.</p>
<pre class="r"><code>data.FCP$var.add <- data.FCP$se.add^2
meta.FCP.FE <- rma(yi = data.FCP$add,vi=data.FCP$var.add,method="FE")
summary(meta.FCP.FE)</code></pre>
<pre class="r"><code># sending table with meta-analysis coef
data.meta.CC <- data.frame(program='Forest Conservation Programs',
coef = coef(meta.FCP.FE),
se.coef=summary(meta.FCP.FE)$se,
stringsAsFactors = F)
dbUpdateResults(con=SKY.db,table='Meta_CC',data=data.meta.CC,where=c('program'),update=c('coef','se.coef'))</code></pre>
<p><img src="ForestPES_files/figure-html/FE.forest.plot-1.png" width="672" /></p>
</div>
<div id="analysis-of-publication-bias" class="section level3">
<h3>Analysis of Publication Bias</h3>
<pre class="r"><code>funnel(meta.FCP.FE)</code></pre>
<p><img src="ForestPES_files/figure-html/FE.funnel.plot-1.png" width="672" /></p>
</div>
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