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const CRYPTOVERSE_DATA = {
"transcripts": [
{
"name": "9uAVH56iJwk.md",
"content": "Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back\ninto the cryptoverse.\nToday we're going to talk about Bitcoin\nsimulation confirmed. If you guys like\nthe content, make sure you subscribe to\nthe channel, give the video a thumbs up,\nand also check out into the cryptoverse\npremium at into the cryptoverse.com.\nFor the last month or so, ever since\nBitcoin got that capitulation into\nFebruary, what we said was that Bitcoin\nwould likely find a low in February\nand then it would likely stay weak\nthrough February and then get a rally in\nthe first week of March. And that rally\nin the first week of March would in fact\nget rejected and to fade the first week\nrally of March. And just a few days ago,\nwe got the rally and I put out this\nvideo.\nWe really do live in a simulation. You\ncan see that Bitcoin was at 73.5K.\nAnd in that video,\nit was hard to go against the permables\nthat call me out every day on Twitter.\nAnd every single one of them came out\nand sort of dunked\nand it ended up being a lower high. Now,\nwhat's fascinating is that we were\nlooking at this thing a month ago,\nright? It was about a month ago. We\nlooked at and we we the thing that's so\ncrazy about this is how simple it is.\nHow simple this thing has been.\nWe look at 2026.\nWe don't try to over complicate things\nby talking about the ISM,\ntalking about Jane Street, whatever the\nnarrative is for the week. We don't care\nabout any of that stuff. It's\nirrelevant. The news cycle is irrelevant\nin this because despite all the crazy\nstuff you see happening,\nBitcoin\nis still following the average return in\nprior midterm years.\nLook at this.\nLook how it dropped into February,\ndidn't go anywhere, got the rally into\nearly March, and then sold off just like\nthe average of all prior midterm years\nfor Bitcoin.\nAll of them, three of them, right?\nIt's just fascinating how you can just\nsit around and basically be like, \"All\nright, low in February, early rally,\nearly rally in March, fade it, not going\nanywhere.\"\nNow, what's interesting\nis if you compare 2026 to 2014, look at\nthat very similar move. Rally early up,\ncapitulate, rally into early March, go\nsideways for a bit, and then drop into\nApril. That's 2014 comparison. Look at\n2018. 2018,\nwe bottomed around the same time. Just\nin 2018, it was a it was a larger drop.\nAnd the reason why it was a larger drop,\nyou said it because back then we topped\non euphoria. This time we topped on\napathy. Therefore, the drop wasn't as\nbig. But you see that find a low sort of\nrally, put in that local top, head down.\nNow look at 2022. This one's a little\ndifferent. The rally extended through\nlate March, but it was only more or less\na sweep of the early March high. It\ndidn't really go anywhere. Now you\naverage them out and you get this. You\nadd one standard deviation onto that and\nyou get that. And you can see that\ndespite the narratives, despite the ISM,\ndespite the macro, despite even the\nprice of oil and the labor market data,\ndespite all of it,\nBitcoin\nis doing what it always does in midterm\nyears. And it just it drives people\ncrazy. I think I think it does. And\nlook, guys, I don't control this stuff,\nright? I'm just over here pointing out\nwhat I think looks reasonable\nand it just keeps on happening. Keeps on\nhappening. It just keeps on playing out\nthe same way that it always does. And\nI'm not here to say that it always will.\nI, you know, I've talked to a lot of\npeople and a lot of people are like,\nwell, why does fouryear cycle have to\nexist? You know, just because everyone\nthinks it will. Will it eventually\nbreak? Probably. Do I expect that for\nthe next 50 years, Bitcoin will behave\non a perfectly predictable four-year\ncycle? No. But the problem is that I\nthink you'll get wrecked more\nfrequently, a lot more if you assume it\nwill end. Not to say that it won't end.\nIt's just that how many times\nwill it take\nthinking it's going to end before it\nactually does? So, the problem is that\npeople that keep thinking it's going to\nend, it keeps not. They get wrecked\nthinking it's it's going to do something\ndifferent. It doesn't. The people that\nkeep betting on the four-ear cycle keep\nwinning. Eventually, betting on the\nfour-ear cycle will probably be a losing\nbet.\nBut maybe it's just worth that, right?\nMaybe it's just worth that idea of\nbetting on it until it doesn't work. And\nthen when it doesn't work, maybe I'll\nget wrecked. What's the count? What's\nthe alternative? you know, just thinking\nit's going to change every cycle just\nbecause we want it to or just going with\nwhat history shows us until proven\notherwise. And then when otherwise is\nproven, then we adjust. You adjust when\nthe market tells you there's a reason\nto. There's not really a reason to\nadjust that if the market just keeps\ndoing the same thing it always does,\nright?\nSo, I mean, I'm not saying this whole\nthing has to play out till the very end.\nUh but for now, this seems like a pretty\nreasonable assumption of how things are\ngoing to go in the short term.\nSo,\nlet's see where it goes.\nI mean,\nthis wick here, you know what this looks\nlike to me? You see that wick higher?\nYou know what it looks like? Looks a lot\nlike 2014. You guys remember what\nhappened in 2014 in March? Same thing.\nEarly week, early rally in March,\nBitcoin went sideways for a week, then\nstarted to dump\nand then it put in a lower low in April.\nYou know what happened in 2018,\nlocal high in March, and then it dumped\ninto early April. 2022 was a little bit\ndifferent, but it still started to dump\nas we got into April and May.\nSo, I hope this has been helpful because\nit it is really difficult, you know,\nwhen you have a lot of people watching\nyour stuff and and then you got all\nthese guys, these toxic permables that\nthat you know, constantly dunk anytime.\nIt's crazy because we talked about this\nrally and then we got it and people\ndunked anyways.\nSo it is difficult and and bare markets\nmake fools of both bulls and bears.\nThat's the reality of bare markets.\nThat's what makes them so hard is even\nif you're a bear, you can be right, but\nit doesn't necessarily make the journey\nany less easier because a lot of times\nin bull markets, we go up or in bare\nmarkets, we go up in the bare market for\nmonths before we get the next leg lower.\nAs you can see back over here,\nthat's what makes them so difficult is\nyou just never really know, you know. um\nwhen that next leg down's going to occur\nand over how long it's going to take\nplace. I just think that the name of the\ngame in midterm years is wealth\npreservation. Preserve what you have so\nthat you can live to fight another day\nin the markets when all this is over.\nAnd if you need a narrative for why this\nhas to play out like this and why we\ncan't have a super cycle and why the\npermables can't be right all the time,\nmaybe oil. I mean, oil is spiking like\ncrazy. And despite the weak labor market\nreport we just got, Fed's not really\nthat much closer to cutting rates. So,\nif you need a narrative, you can run\nwith that one. But I What if you don't\nneed one? What if you don't need a\nnarrative? What if what if you just need\nthis chart?\nI'd be willing to pivot if we go outside\nof this these bounds, but I mean, what\nwhy change anything, you know? Now, over\nthe macro scale, the permabulls make\nmoney. The bears sound smart and the\nbulls make money, but the bears are\nright sometimes. And in crypto, they're\nusually right about every four years.\nAnd this is that year where they're\nright. Starting in the fourth quarter of\nthe post hopping year and usually going\nfor about a year or so. So if you are a\nbear, it's also important to remember\nthat eventually we'll probably leave the\nbare market and enter another bull\nmarket. But as I said last month,\nFebruary is a little premature to call\nfor that, right? You don't I don't think\nif you call for the bull market to start\nin February that you'll likely have that\nwork out because there's there's usually\nlows put in in February, but\nhistorically they're not the low\nif that makes sense. So\nsimulation confirmed, right? Spend a few\nweeks saying we're going to have a rally\nin early March and to fade it and then\nit plays out. And you know, if it plays\nout like it normally does on average,\nthen Bitcoin might not really go\nanywhere for a few days. It might be\nkind of like, what's going on? Like, and\nif you look at it on on um here\non the daily,\nyou can kind of see that it just it it\ngave back all these gains, right? And\nand it just went back to where it it\nsort of launched that little rally from\nright back down there. So, it might\nbounce here for a little bit, you know,\nit might do something like this, but\nultimately I think it probably will\nbreak down as as time goes on. And um\nit's not like I want to bring this\nmessage to you, but you're not here to\nhear me tell you what I you're not here\nto hear me say what you want to happen.\nYou're here probably for me to tell you\nwhat I think's going to happen so that\nyou can use that to to at least think\nabout the market in a different way. I\ndon't know. And I don't know if I'm\nright. I don't know if I'm right, but\nthis is what I think is going to happen.\nI think the market will go lower as the\nyear goes on, and I I think that it's\neasy to label anyone that's bearish just\nan outright doomer. Uh but remember, I\nmean, the the bulls have been wrong\nsince October. And while the bears sound\nsmart and the bulls make money, once\nevery four years or so,\nthe bears are right. So, we'll wrap it\nup there. Thank you guys for tuning in.\nSubscribe, give the video a thumbs up,\nand check out ITC Premium at the\ncryptoverse.com. You can also check out\nmy new website at benjaminc.com. I'll\nsee you guys next time. Bye."
},
{
"name": "latest_transcript.md",
"content": "[00:00] Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back\n[00:02] into the cryptoverse.\n[00:04] Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin\n[00:07] simulation confirmed. If you guys like\n[00:09] the content, make sure you subscribe to\n[00:11] the channel, give the video a thumbs up,\n[00:13] and also check out into the cryptoverse\n[00:15] premium at into the cryptoverse.com.\n[00:19] For the last month or so, ever since\n[00:22] Bitcoin got that capitulation into\n[00:24] February, what we said was that Bitcoin\n[00:27] would likely find a low in February\n[00:31] and then it would likely stay weak\n[00:33] through February and then get a rally in\n[00:36] the first week of March. And that rally\n[00:40] in the first week of March would in fact\n[00:42] get rejected and to fade the first week\n[00:47] rally of March. And just a few days ago,\n[00:52] we got the rally and I put out this\n[00:55] video.\n[00:56] We really do live in a simulation. You\n[00:58] can see that Bitcoin was at 73.5K.\n[01:01] And in that video,\n[01:05] it was hard to go against the permables\n[01:08] that call me out every day on Twitter.\n[01:11] And every single one of them came out\n[01:12] and sort of dunked\n[01:15] and it ended up being a lower high. Now,\n[01:17] what's fascinating is that we were\n[01:20] looking at this thing a month ago,\n[01:24] right? It was about a month ago. We\n[01:27] looked at and we we the thing that's so\n[01:31] crazy about this is how simple it is.\n[01:33] How simple this thing has been.\n[01:37] We look at 2026.\n[01:40] We don't try to over complicate things\n[01:42] by talking about the ISM,\n[01:44] talking about Jane Street, whatever the\n[01:47] narrative is for the week. We don't care\n[01:49] about any of that stuff. It's\n[01:51] irrelevant. The news cycle is irrelevant\n[01:55] in this because despite all the crazy\n[01:57] stuff you see happening,\n[02:01] Bitcoin\n[02:03] is still following the average return in\n[02:08] prior midterm years.\n[02:12] Look at this.\n[02:14] Look how it dropped into February,\n[02:17] didn't go anywhere, got the rally into\n[02:20] early March, and then sold off just like\n[02:23] the average of all prior midterm years\n[02:26] for Bitcoin.\n[02:28] All of them, three of them, right?\n[02:31] It's just fascinating how you can just\n[02:33] sit around and basically be like, \"All\n[02:35] right, low in February, early rally,\n[02:37] early rally in March, fade it, not going\n[02:40] anywhere.\"\n[02:42] Now, what's interesting\n[02:45] is if you compare 2026 to 2014, look at\n[02:48] that very similar move. Rally early up,\n[02:53] capitulate, rally into early March, go\n[02:55] sideways for a bit, and then drop into\n[02:57] April. That's 2014 comparison. Look at\n[03:01] 2018. 2018,\n[03:04] we bottomed around the same time. Just\n[03:06] in 2018, it was a it was a larger drop.\n[03:09] And the reason why it was a larger drop,\n[03:12] you said it because back then we topped\n[03:15] on euphoria. This time we topped on\n[03:17] apathy. Therefore, the drop wasn't as\n[03:18] big. But you see that find a low sort of\n[03:23] rally, put in that local top, head down.\n[03:26] Now look at 2022. This one's a little\n[03:29] different. The rally extended through\n[03:32] late March, but it was only more or less\n[03:33] a sweep of the early March high. It\n[03:36] didn't really go anywhere. Now you\n[03:39] average them out and you get this. You\n[03:42] add one standard deviation onto that and\n[03:45] you get that. And you can see that\n[03:48] despite the narratives, despite the ISM,\n[03:52] despite the macro, despite even the\n[03:54] price of oil and the labor market data,\n[03:57] despite all of it,\n[03:59] Bitcoin\n[04:01] is doing what it always does in midterm\n[04:05] years. And it just it drives people\n[04:07] crazy. I think I think it does. And\n[04:10] look, guys, I don't control this stuff,\n[04:13] right? I'm just over here pointing out\n[04:15] what I think looks reasonable\n[04:20] and it just keeps on happening. Keeps on\n[04:23] happening. It just keeps on playing out\n[04:25] the same way that it always does. And\n[04:28] I'm not here to say that it always will.\n[04:31] I, you know, I've talked to a lot of\n[04:32] people and a lot of people are like,\n[04:34] well, why does fouryear cycle have to\n[04:35] exist? You know, just because everyone\n[04:37] thinks it will. Will it eventually\n[04:39] break? Probably. Do I expect that for\n[04:43] the next 50 years, Bitcoin will behave\n[04:45] on a perfectly predictable four-year\n[04:47] cycle? No. But the problem is that I\n[04:51] think you'll get wrecked more\n[04:53] frequently, a lot more if you assume it\n[04:56] will end. Not to say that it won't end.\n[04:59] It's just that how many times\n[05:03] will it take\n[05:05] thinking it's going to end before it\n[05:07] actually does? So, the problem is that\n[05:10] people that keep thinking it's going to\n[05:11] end, it keeps not. They get wrecked\n[05:13] thinking it's it's going to do something\n[05:14] different. It doesn't. The people that\n[05:16] keep betting on the four-ear cycle keep\n[05:17] winning. Eventually, betting on the\n[05:18] four-ear cycle will probably be a losing\n[05:20] bet.\n[05:23] But maybe it's just worth that, right?\n[05:26] Maybe it's just worth that idea of\n[05:29] betting on it until it doesn't work. And\n[05:31] then when it doesn't work, maybe I'll\n[05:34] get wrecked. What's the count? What's\n[05:36] the alternative? you know, just thinking\n[05:38] it's going to change every cycle just\n[05:40] because we want it to or just going with\n[05:43] what history shows us until proven\n[05:44] otherwise. And then when otherwise is\n[05:46] proven, then we adjust. You adjust when\n[05:50] the market tells you there's a reason\n[05:51] to. There's not really a reason to\n[05:53] adjust that if the market just keeps\n[05:54] doing the same thing it always does,\n[05:56] right?\n[06:00] So, I mean, I'm not saying this whole\n[06:02] thing has to play out till the very end.\n[06:04] Uh but for now, this seems like a pretty\n[06:07] reasonable assumption of how things are\n[06:09] going to go in the short term.\n[06:13] So,\n[06:15] let's see where it goes.\n[06:19] I mean,\n[06:20] this wick here, you know what this looks\n[06:22] like to me? You see that wick higher?\n[06:26] You know what it looks like? Looks a lot\n[06:27] like 2014. You guys remember what\n[06:29] happened in 2014 in March? Same thing.\n[06:34] Early week, early rally in March,\n[06:37] Bitcoin went sideways for a week, then\n[06:40] started to dump\n[06:42] and then it put in a lower low in April.\n[06:45] You know what happened in 2018,\n[06:48] local high in March, and then it dumped\n[06:51] into early April. 2022 was a little bit\n[06:54] different, but it still started to dump\n[06:56] as we got into April and May.\n[06:59] So, I hope this has been helpful because\n[07:04] it it is really difficult, you know,\n[07:06] when you have a lot of people watching\n[07:09] your stuff and and then you got all\n[07:11] these guys, these toxic permables that\n[07:14] that you know, constantly dunk anytime.\n[07:17] It's crazy because we talked about this\n[07:20] rally and then we got it and people\n[07:22] dunked anyways.\n[07:24] So it is difficult and and bare markets\n[07:27] make fools of both bulls and bears.\n[07:29] That's the reality of bare markets.\n[07:31] That's what makes them so hard is even\n[07:33] if you're a bear, you can be right, but\n[07:36] it doesn't necessarily make the journey\n[07:38] any less easier because a lot of times\n[07:40] in bull markets, we go up or in bare\n[07:42] markets, we go up in the bare market for\n[07:43] months before we get the next leg lower.\n[07:46] As you can see back over here,\n[07:49] that's what makes them so difficult is\n[07:51] you just never really know, you know. um\n[07:55] when that next leg down's going to occur\n[07:57] and over how long it's going to take\n[07:59] place. I just think that the name of the\n[08:01] game in midterm years is wealth\n[08:03] preservation. Preserve what you have so\n[08:06] that you can live to fight another day\n[08:07] in the markets when all this is over.\n[08:10] And if you need a narrative for why this\n[08:14] has to play out like this and why we\n[08:17] can't have a super cycle and why the\n[08:18] permables can't be right all the time,\n[08:22] maybe oil. I mean, oil is spiking like\n[08:25] crazy. And despite the weak labor market\n[08:28] report we just got, Fed's not really\n[08:30] that much closer to cutting rates. So,\n[08:33] if you need a narrative, you can run\n[08:35] with that one. But I What if you don't\n[08:37] need one? What if you don't need a\n[08:38] narrative? What if what if you just need\n[08:40] this chart?\n[08:43] I'd be willing to pivot if we go outside\n[08:44] of this these bounds, but I mean, what\n[08:46] why change anything, you know? Now, over\n[08:49] the macro scale, the permabulls make\n[08:51] money. The bears sound smart and the\n[08:52] bulls make money, but the bears are\n[08:54] right sometimes. And in crypto, they're\n[08:56] usually right about every four years.\n[08:58] And this is that year where they're\n[08:59] right. Starting in the fourth quarter of\n[09:01] the post hopping year and usually going\n[09:03] for about a year or so. So if you are a\n[09:07] bear, it's also important to remember\n[09:09] that eventually we'll probably leave the\n[09:12] bare market and enter another bull\n[09:14] market. But as I said last month,\n[09:17] February is a little premature to call\n[09:19] for that, right? You don't I don't think\n[09:22] if you call for the bull market to start\n[09:24] in February that you'll likely have that\n[09:27] work out because there's there's usually\n[09:29] lows put in in February, but\n[09:32] historically they're not the low\n[09:35] if that makes sense. So\n[09:39] simulation confirmed, right? Spend a few\n[09:42] weeks saying we're going to have a rally\n[09:43] in early March and to fade it and then\n[09:46] it plays out. And you know, if it plays\n[09:48] out like it normally does on average,\n[09:51] then Bitcoin might not really go\n[09:52] anywhere for a few days. It might be\n[09:54] kind of like, what's going on? Like, and\n[09:57] if you look at it on on um here\n[10:03] on the daily,\n[10:05] you can kind of see that it just it it\n[10:06] gave back all these gains, right? And\n[10:09] and it just went back to where it it\n[10:10] sort of launched that little rally from\n[10:13] right back down there. So, it might\n[10:15] bounce here for a little bit, you know,\n[10:17] it might do something like this, but\n[10:19] ultimately I think it probably will\n[10:20] break down as as time goes on. And um\n[10:25] it's not like I want to bring this\n[10:26] message to you, but you're not here to\n[10:29] hear me tell you what I you're not here\n[10:32] to hear me say what you want to happen.\n[10:34] You're here probably for me to tell you\n[10:35] what I think's going to happen so that\n[10:37] you can use that to to at least think\n[10:40] about the market in a different way. I\n[10:41] don't know. And I don't know if I'm\n[10:43] right. I don't know if I'm right, but\n[10:44] this is what I think is going to happen.\n[10:46] I think the market will go lower as the\n[10:48] year goes on, and I I think that it's\n[10:51] easy to label anyone that's bearish just\n[10:53] an outright doomer. Uh but remember, I\n[10:56] mean, the the bulls have been wrong\n[10:58] since October. And while the bears sound\n[11:02] smart and the bulls make money, once\n[11:05] every four years or so,\n[11:07] the bears are right. So, we'll wrap it\n[11:10] up there. Thank you guys for tuning in.\n[11:11] Subscribe, give the video a thumbs up,\n[11:13] and check out ITC Premium at the\n[11:15] cryptoverse.com. You can also check out\n[11:17] my new website at benjaminc.com. I'll\n[11:20] see you guys next time. Bye."
},
{
"name": "strategic_video.md",
"content": "\ufeff\n[download] 1.00KiB at Unknown B/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 3.00KiB at 323.54KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 7.00KiB at 457.25KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 15.00KiB at 548.75KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 31.00KiB at 289.05KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 63.00KiB at 386.72KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 127.00KiB at 464.78KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 255.00KiB at 647.82KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 290.14KiB at 680.83KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 100% of 290.14KiB in 00:00:00 at 363.28KiB/s\n \n# Nuclear Engineer: Here's When to Turn Bullish on Bitcoin | Benjamin Cowen\n\nKind: captions Language: en Hi[00:00:05.600][c] everyone,[/c][00:00:06.240][c] welcome[/c][00:00:06.480][c] back[/c][00:00:06.720][c] to[/c][00:00:06.879][c] the[/c][00:00:07.040][c] show.[/c] Hi everyone, welcome back to the show. Hi everyone, welcome back to the show. If[00:00:07.680][c] you're[/c][00:00:07.839][c] new[/c][00:00:08.000][c] here,[/c][00:00:08.400][c] I'm[/c][00:00:08.559][c] your[/c][00:00:08.800][c] host[/c] If you're new here, I'm your host If you're new here, I'm your host Charles.[00:00:09.920][c] Make[/c][00:00:10.080][c] sure[/c][00:00:10.240][c] to[/c][00:00:10.400][c] hit[/c][00:00:10.480][c] that[/c][00:00:10.719][c] like[/c][00:00:10.880][c] and[/c] Charles. Make sure to hit that like and Charles. Make sure to hit that like and subscribe[00:00:11.519][c] button[/c][00:00:11.920][c] and[/c][00:00:12.160][c] let's[/c][00:00:12.400][c] get[/c][00:00:12.480][c] into[/c][00:00:12.800][c] it.[/c] subscribe button and let's get into it. subscribe button and let's get into it. Today[00:00:14.160][c] we[/c][00:00:14.400][c] have[/c][00:00:14.559][c] Benjamin[/c][00:00:14.960][c] Ken[/c][00:00:15.360][c] with[/c][00:00:15.519][c] us.[/c][00:00:16.080][c] Ben[/c] Today we have Benjamin Ken with us. Ben Today we have Benjamin Ken with us. Ben was[00:00:16.560][c] one[/c][00:00:16.720][c] of[/c][00:00:16.800][c] the[/c][00:00:16.960][c] few[/c][00:00:17.199][c] well-known[/c][00:00:17.840][c] voices[/c][00:00:18.320][c] who[/c] was one of the few well-known voices who was one of the few well-known voices who warned[00:00:18.800][c] of[/c][00:00:18.960][c] a[/c][00:00:19.199][c] potential[/c][00:00:19.600][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:00:20.080][c] and[/c][00:00:20.320][c] crypto[/c] warned of a potential Bitcoin and crypto warned of a potential Bitcoin and crypto cycle[00:00:20.960][c] top[/c][00:00:21.359][c] back[/c][00:00:21.520][c] in[/c][00:00:21.760][c] October.[/c][00:00:22.640][c] And[/c][00:00:22.800][c] he[/c][00:00:22.960][c] has[/c] cycle top back in October. And he has cycle top back in October. And he has now[00:00:23.359][c] mass[/c][00:00:23.760][c] unfollowed[/c][00:00:24.240][c] all[/c][00:00:24.480][c] the[/c][00:00:24.720][c] influencers[/c] now mass unfollowed all the influencers now mass unfollowed all the influencers still[00:00:25.600][c] calling[/c][00:00:25.840][c] for[/c][00:00:26.000][c] a[/c][00:00:26.160][c] bull[/c][00:00:26.400][c] run.[/c][00:00:27.199][c] Ben[/c][00:00:27.519][c] has[/c] still calling for a bull run. Ben has still calling for a bull run. Ben has useful[00:00:28.240][c] quantitative[/c][00:00:28.880][c] tools[/c][00:00:29.199][c] and[/c][00:00:29.439][c] frameworks[/c] useful quantitative tools and frameworks useful quantitative tools and frameworks to[00:00:30.160][c] analyze[/c][00:00:30.640][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:00:31.039][c] price[/c][00:00:31.359][c] trends.[/c][00:00:32.160][c] And[/c] to analyze Bitcoin price trends. And to analyze Bitcoin price trends. And right[00:00:32.640][c] now,[/c][00:00:33.040][c] those[/c][00:00:33.280][c] metrics[/c][00:00:33.680][c] are[/c][00:00:33.920][c] telling[/c][00:00:34.160][c] a[/c] right now, those metrics are telling a right now, those metrics are telling a very[00:00:34.640][c] specific[/c][00:00:35.040][c] story.[/c][00:00:36.000][c] Ben,[/c][00:00:36.480][c] let's[/c][00:00:36.719][c] get[/c] very specific story. Ben, let's get very specific story. Ben, let's get right[00:00:37.200][c] into[/c][00:00:37.520][c] it.[/c][00:00:38.399][c] So,[/c][00:00:38.719][c] Ben,[/c][00:00:39.520][c] you[/c][00:00:39.680][c] have[/c][00:00:39.840][c] a[/c] right into it. So, Ben, you have a right into it. So, Ben, you have a framework[00:00:40.239][c] for[/c][00:00:40.480][c] evaluating[/c][00:00:41.040][c] Bitcoin's[/c][00:00:41.680][c] price[/c] framework for evaluating Bitcoin's price framework for evaluating Bitcoin's price trajectory[00:00:42.559][c] that[/c][00:00:42.879][c] most[/c][00:00:43.120][c] people[/c][00:00:43.360][c] have[/c][00:00:43.600][c] never[/c] trajectory that most people have never trajectory that most people have never heard[00:00:44.000][c] of.[/c][00:00:44.399][c] It[/c][00:00:44.640][c] involves[/c][00:00:45.040][c] something[/c][00:00:45.360][c] called[/c] heard of. It involves something called heard of. It involves something called terminal[00:00:46.239][c] price,[/c][00:00:46.800][c] realized[/c][00:00:47.360][c] price,[/c][00:00:47.760][c] and[/c] terminal price, realized price, and terminal price, realized price, and balance[00:00:48.559][c] price.[/c][00:00:49.440][c] Can[/c][00:00:49.680][c] you[/c][00:00:49.840][c] break[/c][00:00:50.079][c] down[/c][00:00:50.239][c] what[/c] balance price. Can you break down what balance price. Can you break down what each[00:00:50.719][c] of[/c][00:00:50.800][c] those[/c][00:00:51.039][c] metrics[/c][00:00:51.520][c] mean[/c][00:00:52.239][c] and[/c][00:00:52.480][c] then[/c][00:00:52.640][c] walk[/c] each of those metrics mean and then walk each of those metrics mean and then walk us[00:00:53.039][c] through[/c][00:00:53.280][c] where[/c][00:00:53.520][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:00:54.000][c] sits[/c][00:00:54.320][c] right[/c][00:00:54.480][c] now[/c] us through where Bitcoin sits right now us through where Bitcoin sits right now relative[00:00:55.199][c] to[/c][00:00:55.360][c] those[/c][00:00:55.600][c] levels[/c][00:00:56.000][c] and[/c][00:00:56.320][c] what[/c][00:00:56.559][c] that[/c] relative to those levels and what that relative to those levels and what that tells[00:00:57.039][c] us[/c][00:00:57.280][c] about[/c][00:00:57.520][c] where[/c][00:00:57.840][c] the[/c][00:00:58.079][c] price[/c][00:00:58.320][c] is[/c] tells us about where the price is tells us about where the price is heading[00:00:58.879][c] next?[/c] heading next? heading next? >> Uh,[00:01:00.879][c] sure.[/c][00:01:01.199][c] Yeah,[/c][00:01:01.440][c] and[/c][00:01:01.600][c] thanks[/c][00:01:01.760][c] for[/c][00:01:01.920][c] having[/c][00:01:02.079][c] me[/c] >> Uh, sure. Yeah, and thanks for having me >> Uh, sure. Yeah, and thanks for having me on[00:01:02.320][c] the[/c][00:01:02.480][c] channel.[/c][00:01:02.719][c] It's[/c][00:01:02.879][c] a[/c][00:01:02.960][c] pleasure[/c][00:01:03.199][c] to[/c] on the channel. It's a pleasure to on the channel. It's a pleasure to pleasure[00:01:03.840][c] to[/c][00:01:04.000][c] be[/c][00:01:04.159][c] here.[/c][00:01:04.879][c] So,[/c][00:01:05.439][c] these[/c][00:01:05.760][c] are[/c][00:01:06.400][c] these[/c] pleasure to be here. So, these are these pleasure to be here. So, these are these are,[00:01:07.119][c] you[/c][00:01:07.280][c] know,[/c][00:01:07.360][c] onchain[/c][00:01:07.840][c] indicators.[/c][00:01:08.400][c] I'm[/c] are, you know, onchain indicators. I'm are, you know, onchain indicators. I'm not[00:01:08.799][c] the[/c][00:01:08.960][c] one[/c][00:01:09.119][c] who[/c][00:01:09.360][c] created[/c][00:01:09.680][c] these[/c] not the one who created these not the one who created these indicators.[00:01:10.479][c] Uh,[/c][00:01:10.720][c] it[/c][00:01:10.960][c] was[/c][00:01:11.600][c] Chuck[/c][00:01:11.920][c] Mie[/c][00:01:12.240][c] and[/c][00:01:12.400][c] and[/c] indicators. Uh, it was Chuck Mie and and indicators. Uh, it was Chuck Mie and and David[00:01:13.119][c] Pew[/c][00:01:13.439][c] back[/c][00:01:13.680][c] in[/c][00:01:13.840][c] 2021.[/c][00:01:14.960][c] Uh[/c][00:01:15.200][c] but[/c][00:01:15.520][c] these[/c][00:01:15.760][c] are[/c] David Pew back in 2021. Uh but these are David Pew back in 2021. Uh but these are are[00:01:16.080][c] are[/c][00:01:16.479][c] some[/c][00:01:16.799][c] interesting[/c][00:01:17.280][c] indicators[/c] are are some interesting indicators are are some interesting indicators because[00:01:18.159][c] historically[/c][00:01:18.880][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:01:19.439][c] does[/c][00:01:19.840][c] bottom[/c] because historically Bitcoin does bottom because historically Bitcoin does bottom once[00:01:20.799][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:01:21.360][c] goes[/c][00:01:21.680][c] both[/c][00:01:21.920][c] below[/c][00:01:22.640][c] the[/c] once Bitcoin goes both below the once Bitcoin goes both below the realized[00:01:23.439][c] price[/c][00:01:23.840][c] and[/c][00:01:24.159][c] the[/c][00:01:24.320][c] balance[/c][00:01:24.720][c] price.[/c][00:01:24.960][c] So[/c] realized price and the balance price. So realized price and the balance price. So you[00:01:25.280][c] can[/c][00:01:25.360][c] see[/c][00:01:25.520][c] it[/c][00:01:25.759][c] did[/c][00:01:25.840][c] that[/c][00:01:26.000][c] in[/c][00:01:26.240][c] 2011.[/c][00:01:27.280][c] It[/c][00:01:27.520][c] did[/c] you can see it did that in 2011. It did you can see it did that in 2011. It did it[00:01:27.840][c] in.[/c] it in. it in. It[00:01:30.159][c] did[/c][00:01:30.320][c] it[/c][00:01:30.479][c] in[/c][00:01:30.640][c] in[/c][00:01:30.960][c] 2018[/c][00:01:31.520][c] and[/c][00:01:31.920][c] 2020[/c][00:01:32.479][c] and[/c][00:01:32.720][c] 2022.[/c] It did it in in 2018 and 2020 and 2022. It did it in in 2018 and 2020 and 2022. Now[00:01:34.240][c] we're[/c][00:01:34.479][c] getting[/c][00:01:34.720][c] closer[/c][00:01:34.960][c] to[/c][00:01:35.119][c] those[/c][00:01:35.360][c] levels[/c] Now we're getting closer to those levels Now we're getting closer to those levels now.[00:01:37.119][c] So[/c][00:01:37.840][c] my[/c][00:01:38.159][c] guess[/c][00:01:38.479][c] is[/c][00:01:38.720][c] that[/c][00:01:39.040][c] this[/c][00:01:39.280][c] bare[/c] now. So my guess is that this bare now. So my guess is that this bare market[00:01:39.840][c] will[/c][00:01:40.000][c] play[/c][00:01:40.240][c] out[/c][00:01:40.640][c] just[/c][00:01:40.880][c] like[/c][00:01:41.040][c] any[/c][00:01:41.280][c] other[/c] market will play out just like any other market will play out just like any other bare[00:01:41.759][c] markets[/c][00:01:42.159][c] do.[/c][00:01:42.479][c] And[/c][00:01:43.119][c] you[/c][00:01:43.280][c] know,[/c][00:01:43.439][c] you[/c][00:01:43.759][c] have[/c] bare markets do. And you know, you have bare markets do. And you know, you have essentially[00:01:45.200][c] a[/c][00:01:45.520][c] top[/c][00:01:45.759][c] in[/c][00:01:46.079][c] Q4.[/c] essentially a top in Q4. essentially a top in Q4. I[00:01:47.840][c] know[/c][00:01:47.920][c] it's[/c][00:01:48.159][c] I[/c][00:01:48.399][c] mean[/c][00:01:48.479][c] it[/c][00:01:48.640][c] it[/c][00:01:48.720][c] it[/c][00:01:49.200][c] seems[/c][00:01:49.840][c] crazy[/c] I know it's I mean it it it seems crazy I know it's I mean it it it seems crazy to[00:01:50.320][c] a[/c][00:01:50.479][c] lot[/c][00:01:50.560][c] of[/c][00:01:50.640][c] people,[/c][00:01:51.439][c] but[/c][00:01:52.320][c] it's[/c][00:01:52.640][c] funny[/c][00:01:53.040][c] how[/c] to a lot of people, but it's funny how to a lot of people, but it's funny how cyclical[00:01:54.479][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:01:54.960][c] has[/c][00:01:55.200][c] been.[/c][00:01:55.920][c] It's[/c][00:01:56.159][c] like[/c] cyclical Bitcoin has been. It's like cyclical Bitcoin has been. It's like every[00:01:56.640][c] posth[/c][00:01:56.960][c] having[/c][00:01:57.280][c] year,[/c][00:01:57.520][c] we[/c][00:01:57.680][c] all[/c][00:01:57.840][c] try[/c][00:01:58.000][c] to[/c] every posth having year, we all try to every posth having year, we all try to over[00:01:58.399][c] complicate[/c][00:01:59.360][c] things,[/c][00:01:59.759][c] but[/c][00:02:00.000][c] nope,[/c] over complicate things, but nope, over complicate things, but nope, Bitcoin[00:02:00.719][c] always[/c][00:02:00.960][c] tops[/c][00:02:01.200][c] when[/c][00:02:01.360][c] it[/c][00:02:01.520][c] normally[/c] Bitcoin always tops when it normally Bitcoin always tops when it normally does.[00:02:02.640][c] And[/c][00:02:02.960][c] when[/c][00:02:03.200][c] you[/c][00:02:03.439][c] when[/c][00:02:03.680][c] you[/c][00:02:03.840][c] actually[/c] does. And when you when you actually does. And when you when you actually look[00:02:04.399][c] at[/c][00:02:04.640][c] the[/c][00:02:05.200][c] ROI[/c][00:02:05.759][c] after[/c][00:02:06.079][c] the[/c][00:02:06.240][c] cycle[/c][00:02:06.560][c] peak[/c][00:02:06.880][c] for[/c] look at the ROI after the cycle peak for look at the ROI after the cycle peak for Bitcoin,[00:02:08.080][c] this[/c][00:02:08.399][c] cycle,[/c][00:02:08.800][c] this[/c][00:02:09.039][c] purple[/c][00:02:09.280][c] line[/c] Bitcoin, this cycle, this purple line Bitcoin, this cycle, this purple line compared[00:02:09.840][c] to[/c][00:02:09.920][c] the[/c][00:02:10.080][c] other[/c][00:02:10.239][c] cycles,[/c][00:02:11.360][c] it's[/c] compared to the other cycles, it's compared to the other cycles, it's basically[00:02:12.080][c] doing[/c][00:02:12.319][c] what[/c][00:02:12.480][c] it[/c][00:02:12.720][c] always[/c][00:02:12.959][c] does.[/c][00:02:13.440][c] In[/c] basically doing what it always does. In basically doing what it always does. In fact,[00:02:14.400][c] if[/c][00:02:14.640][c] you[/c][00:02:14.800][c] were[/c][00:02:14.959][c] to[/c][00:02:15.280][c] average[/c][00:02:16.160][c] those[/c][00:02:17.040][c] prior[/c] fact, if you were to average those prior fact, if you were to average those prior peaks[00:02:18.480][c] and[/c][00:02:18.800][c] then[/c][00:02:18.959][c] just[/c][00:02:19.200][c] simply[/c][00:02:19.599][c] look[/c][00:02:19.840][c] at[/c][00:02:20.959][c] um[/c] peaks and then just simply look at um peaks and then just simply look at um the[00:02:21.520][c] current[/c][00:02:21.760][c] bare[/c][00:02:22.080][c] market[/c][00:02:22.480][c] with[/c][00:02:22.720][c] respect[/c][00:02:23.040][c] to[/c] the current bare market with respect to the current bare market with respect to the[00:02:23.440][c] prior[/c][00:02:23.760][c] bare[/c][00:02:24.000][c] markets,[/c][00:02:24.640][c] it's[/c][00:02:24.959][c] actually[/c] the prior bare markets, it's actually the prior bare markets, it's actually right[00:02:25.680][c] on[/c][00:02:26.000][c] the[/c][00:02:26.239][c] average[/c][00:02:26.800][c] of[/c][00:02:27.040][c] the[/c][00:02:27.200][c] prior[/c][00:02:27.520][c] bare[/c] right on the average of the prior bare right on the average of the prior bare markets[00:02:28.239][c] as[/c][00:02:28.560][c] measured[/c][00:02:29.440][c] from[/c][00:02:29.680][c] the[/c][00:02:29.920][c] top[/c][00:02:30.239][c] in[/c][00:02:30.400][c] the[/c] markets as measured from the top in the markets as measured from the top in the fourth[00:02:30.879][c] quarter[/c][00:02:31.200][c] of[/c][00:02:31.360][c] the[/c][00:02:31.520][c] post-tapping[/c][00:02:32.160][c] year.[/c] fourth quarter of the post-tapping year. fourth quarter of the post-tapping year. And[00:02:33.360][c] this[/c][00:02:33.599][c] is[/c][00:02:33.760][c] also[/c][00:02:34.080][c] showing[/c][00:02:34.480][c] within[/c][00:02:34.800][c] one[/c] And this is also showing within one And this is also showing within one standard[00:02:35.360][c] deviation.[/c][00:02:36.160][c] You[/c][00:02:36.480][c] can[/c][00:02:36.640][c] also[/c][00:02:36.959][c] see[/c] standard deviation. You can also see standard deviation. You can also see that[00:02:37.360][c] if[/c][00:02:37.519][c] you[/c][00:02:37.599][c] look[/c][00:02:37.760][c] at[/c][00:02:37.840][c] the[/c][00:02:38.000][c] year-to-[/c][00:02:38.319][c] date[/c] that if you look at the year-to- date that if you look at the year-to- date ROI[00:02:39.040][c] of[/c][00:02:39.280][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:02:40.400][c] in[/c][00:02:40.800][c] 2026[/c][00:02:41.680][c] and[/c][00:02:42.000][c] compare[/c][00:02:42.480][c] that[/c] ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and compare that ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and compare that to[00:02:43.440][c] prior[/c][00:02:43.840][c] midterm[/c][00:02:44.400][c] years,[/c][00:02:44.959][c] we're[/c] to prior midterm years, we're to prior midterm years, we're essentially[00:02:45.760][c] also[/c][00:02:46.239][c] following[/c][00:02:46.959][c] the[/c][00:02:47.280][c] average.[/c] essentially also following the average. essentially also following the average. And[00:02:47.920][c] you[/c][00:02:48.080][c] can[/c][00:02:48.160][c] also[/c][00:02:48.480][c] add[/c][00:02:48.720][c] in[/c][00:02:49.519][c] one[/c][00:02:49.840][c] standard[/c] And you can also add in one standard And you can also add in one standard deviation deviation deviation as[00:02:52.080][c] well[/c][00:02:52.239][c] to[/c][00:02:52.480][c] that[/c][00:02:53.120][c] and[/c][00:02:53.200][c] and[/c][00:02:53.599][c] just[/c][00:02:53.760][c] see[/c][00:02:54.000][c] that[/c] as well to that and and just see that as well to that and and just see that this[00:02:54.560][c] is[/c][00:02:54.800][c] typically[/c][00:02:55.200][c] how[/c][00:02:55.440][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:02:55.920][c] behaves.[/c] this is typically how Bitcoin behaves. this is typically how Bitcoin behaves. We[00:02:57.360][c] we[/c][00:02:57.680][c] see[/c][00:02:57.840][c] weakness[/c][00:02:58.319][c] in[/c][00:02:58.560][c] February.[/c][00:02:59.440][c] there's[/c] We we see weakness in February. there's We we see weakness in February. there's often[00:03:00.080][c] a[/c][00:03:00.319][c] little[/c][00:03:00.480][c] bit[/c][00:03:00.640][c] of[/c][00:03:00.800][c] a[/c][00:03:00.959][c] surge[/c][00:03:01.360][c] going[/c][00:03:01.599][c] into[/c] often a little bit of a surge going into often a little bit of a surge going into the[00:03:02.000][c] first[/c][00:03:02.159][c] week[/c][00:03:02.319][c] of[/c][00:03:02.560][c] March[/c][00:03:03.120][c] and[/c][00:03:03.360][c] then[/c][00:03:03.519][c] we[/c][00:03:03.680][c] tend[/c] the first week of March and then we tend the first week of March and then we tend to[00:03:04.000][c] then[/c][00:03:04.239][c] drop[/c][00:03:04.480][c] back[/c][00:03:04.720][c] down[/c][00:03:04.879][c] into[/c][00:03:05.200][c] April[/c][00:03:05.440][c] and[/c] to then drop back down into April and to then drop back down into April and May.[00:03:06.080][c] So,[/c][00:03:06.480][c] in[/c][00:03:06.720][c] a[/c][00:03:06.879][c] lot[/c][00:03:06.959][c] of[/c][00:03:07.040][c] ways,[/c][00:03:07.360][c] this[/c][00:03:07.599][c] is[/c] May. So, in a lot of ways, this is May. So, in a lot of ways, this is playing[00:03:08.000][c] out[/c][00:03:08.400][c] how[/c][00:03:08.640][c] it's[/c][00:03:08.879][c] played[/c][00:03:09.120][c] out[/c][00:03:09.440][c] for[/c][00:03:09.760][c] a[/c] playing out how it's played out for a playing out how it's played out for a very[00:03:10.480][c] long[/c][00:03:10.800][c] time.[/c][00:03:11.680][c] And[/c][00:03:12.239][c] things[/c][00:03:12.480][c] like[/c][00:03:12.720][c] the[/c] very long time. And things like the very long time. And things like the balance[00:03:13.519][c] price,[/c][00:03:14.159][c] the[/c][00:03:14.319][c] the[/c][00:03:14.480][c] the[/c][00:03:14.800][c] the[/c][00:03:15.680][c] realized[/c] balance price, the the the the realized balance price, the the the the realized price,[00:03:16.560][c] that[/c][00:03:16.720][c] also[/c][00:03:16.959][c] helps[/c][00:03:17.200][c] us[/c][00:03:17.440][c] get[/c][00:03:17.519][c] an[/c][00:03:17.760][c] idea[/c][00:03:18.159][c] of[/c] price, that also helps us get an idea of price, that also helps us get an idea of okay,[00:03:19.040][c] when[/c][00:03:19.280][c] does[/c][00:03:19.440][c] it[/c][00:03:19.599][c] actually[/c][00:03:19.760][c] make[/c][00:03:19.920][c] sense[/c] okay, when does it actually make sense okay, when does it actually make sense to[00:03:20.319][c] potentially[/c][00:03:20.720][c] start[/c][00:03:20.959][c] turning[/c][00:03:21.360][c] bullish[/c][00:03:22.319][c] on[/c] to potentially start turning bullish on to potentially start turning bullish on on[00:03:22.879][c] on[/c][00:03:23.440][c] Bitcoin?[/c][00:03:24.000][c] And[/c][00:03:24.560][c] you[/c][00:03:24.640][c] know,[/c][00:03:24.800][c] there[/c] on on Bitcoin? And you know, there on on Bitcoin? And you know, there there's[00:03:25.200][c] going[/c][00:03:25.280][c] to[/c][00:03:25.360][c] be[/c][00:03:25.519][c] rallies[/c][00:03:25.920][c] in[/c][00:03:26.239][c] bare[/c] there's going to be rallies in bare there's going to be rallies in bare markets.[00:03:26.879][c] In[/c][00:03:27.120][c] fact,[/c][00:03:27.280][c] some[/c][00:03:27.440][c] of[/c][00:03:27.519][c] the[/c][00:03:27.680][c] most[/c][00:03:28.239][c] crazy[/c] markets. In fact, some of the most crazy markets. In fact, some of the most crazy rallies[00:03:29.120][c] are[/c][00:03:29.280][c] in[/c][00:03:29.519][c] bare[/c][00:03:29.840][c] markets.[/c][00:03:30.319][c] But[/c][00:03:30.799][c] in[/c] rallies are in bare markets. But in rallies are in bare markets. But in terms[00:03:31.200][c] of[/c][00:03:31.519][c] identifying[/c][00:03:32.000][c] a[/c][00:03:32.319][c] macro[/c][00:03:32.720][c] low,[/c][00:03:33.440][c] you[/c] terms of identifying a macro low, you terms of identifying a macro low, you would[00:03:33.760][c] really[/c][00:03:33.920][c] want[/c][00:03:34.000][c] to[/c][00:03:34.159][c] see[/c][00:03:34.239][c] a[/c][00:03:34.400][c] lot[/c][00:03:34.480][c] of[/c][00:03:34.560][c] these[/c] would really want to see a lot of these would really want to see a lot of these indicators[00:03:35.360][c] say,[/c][00:03:35.599][c] \"Hey,[/c][00:03:36.239][c] we've[/c][00:03:36.560][c] gone[/c][00:03:36.799][c] down[/c] indicators say, \"Hey, we've gone down indicators say, \"Hey, we've gone down far[00:03:37.280][c] enough.\"[/c][00:03:38.480][c] And[/c][00:03:38.720][c] Ben,[/c][00:03:39.120][c] you've[/c][00:03:39.440][c] talked[/c] far enough.\" And Ben, you've talked far enough.\" And Ben, you've talked about[00:03:39.920][c] this[/c][00:03:40.239][c] idea[/c][00:03:40.720][c] of[/c][00:03:40.959][c] a[/c][00:03:41.120][c] counter[/c][00:03:41.519][c] trend[/c][00:03:41.760][c] move.[/c] about this idea of a counter trend move. about this idea of a counter trend move. You've[00:03:42.239][c] sort[/c][00:03:42.319][c] of[/c][00:03:42.400][c] been[/c][00:03:42.640][c] referencing[/c][00:03:43.360][c] it[/c][00:03:43.680][c] right[/c] You've sort of been referencing it right You've sort of been referencing it right there.[00:03:44.480][c] For[/c][00:03:44.720][c] anyone[/c][00:03:45.040][c] watching[/c][00:03:45.440][c] who[/c][00:03:45.680][c] might[/c][00:03:45.840][c] be[/c] there. For anyone watching who might be there. For anyone watching who might be looking[00:03:46.159][c] at[/c][00:03:46.319][c] a[/c][00:03:46.480][c] green[/c][00:03:46.720][c] day[/c][00:03:46.959][c] and[/c][00:03:47.200][c] thinking[/c][00:03:47.440][c] the[/c] looking at a green day and thinking the looking at a green day and thinking the bottom[00:03:48.000][c] is[/c][00:03:48.159][c] in,[/c][00:03:48.799][c] why[/c][00:03:48.959][c] are[/c][00:03:49.120][c] you[/c][00:03:49.280][c] suspicious[/c][00:03:49.920][c] of[/c] bottom is in, why are you suspicious of bottom is in, why are you suspicious of a[00:03:50.319][c] relief[/c][00:03:50.720][c] rally[/c][00:03:51.120][c] over[/c][00:03:51.440][c] the[/c][00:03:51.599][c] next[/c][00:03:51.840][c] few[/c][00:03:52.000][c] months?[/c] a relief rally over the next few months? a relief rally over the next few months? And[00:03:52.799][c] what[/c][00:03:52.959][c] should[/c][00:03:53.200][c] people[/c][00:03:53.599][c] actually[/c][00:03:53.920][c] be[/c] And what should people actually be And what should people actually be watching[00:03:54.480][c] to[/c][00:03:54.720][c] tell[/c][00:03:54.879][c] the[/c][00:03:55.120][c] difference[/c][00:03:55.360][c] between[/c] watching to tell the difference between watching to tell the difference between a[00:03:55.840][c] real[/c][00:03:56.480][c] reversal[/c][00:03:57.040][c] and[/c][00:03:57.280][c] a[/c][00:03:57.439][c] trap?[/c] a real reversal and a trap? a real reversal and a trap? >> Yeah,[00:03:58.959][c] I[/c][00:03:59.200][c] mean,[/c][00:03:59.360][c] normally[/c][00:04:00.000][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:04:00.560][c] finds[/c] >> Yeah, I mean, normally Bitcoin finds >> Yeah, I mean, normally Bitcoin finds weakness[00:04:01.760][c] into[/c][00:04:02.159][c] February.[/c][00:04:02.720][c] Like[/c][00:04:02.959][c] here's[/c] weakness into February. Like here's weakness into February. Like here's February[00:04:03.920][c] 2014,[/c][00:04:04.480][c] and[/c][00:04:04.640][c] then[/c][00:04:04.799][c] there'll[/c][00:04:05.040][c] be[/c][00:04:05.120][c] like[/c] February 2014, and then there'll be like February 2014, and then there'll be like a[00:04:05.519][c] brief[/c][00:04:05.920][c] green[/c][00:04:06.239][c] week[/c][00:04:06.480][c] in[/c][00:04:06.799][c] early[/c][00:04:07.040][c] March,[/c][00:04:07.360][c] and[/c] a brief green week in early March, and a brief green week in early March, and then[00:04:07.680][c] just[/c][00:04:07.920][c] another[/c][00:04:08.159][c] sell-off,[/c][00:04:08.720][c] right?[/c][00:04:08.959][c] As[/c] then just another sell-off, right? As then just another sell-off, right? As 2014,[00:04:09.920][c] same[/c][00:04:10.239][c] thing[/c][00:04:10.400][c] essentially[/c][00:04:10.799][c] in[/c][00:04:11.040][c] 2018.[/c] 2014, same thing essentially in 2018. 2014, same thing essentially in 2018. You[00:04:12.239][c] had[/c][00:04:12.400][c] weakness[/c][00:04:12.799][c] here[/c][00:04:12.959][c] into[/c][00:04:13.280][c] February,[/c][00:04:14.640][c] a[/c] You had weakness here into February, a You had weakness here into February, a local[00:04:15.120][c] top[/c][00:04:15.360][c] in[/c][00:04:15.519][c] March,[/c][00:04:15.840][c] and[/c][00:04:16.079][c] then[/c][00:04:16.160][c] a[/c][00:04:16.479][c] back[/c][00:04:16.720][c] down[/c] local top in March, and then a back down local top in March, and then a back down into[00:04:17.199][c] April[/c][00:04:17.519][c] and[/c][00:04:17.680][c] May.[/c][00:04:17.919][c] Same[/c][00:04:18.160][c] thing[/c][00:04:18.239][c] in[/c][00:04:18.400][c] 2022.[/c] into April and May. Same thing in 2022. into April and May. Same thing in 2022. You[00:04:19.040][c] had[/c][00:04:19.199][c] weakness[/c][00:04:19.440][c] here[/c][00:04:19.600][c] into[/c][00:04:19.840][c] February,[/c] You had weakness here into February, You had weakness here into February, another[00:04:20.560][c] local[/c][00:04:20.799][c] top[/c][00:04:21.040][c] in[/c][00:04:21.280][c] March,[/c][00:04:21.759][c] and[/c][00:04:22.000][c] then[/c] another local top in March, and then another local top in March, and then down[00:04:22.400][c] into[/c][00:04:22.720][c] the[/c][00:04:22.960][c] summer[/c][00:04:23.199][c] months.[/c] down into the summer months. down into the summer months. That's[00:04:24.960][c] what[/c][00:04:25.120][c] I'm[/c][00:04:25.360][c] thinking[/c][00:04:25.600][c] is[/c][00:04:25.840][c] that[/c][00:04:26.000][c] you[/c] That's what I'm thinking is that you That's what I'm thinking is that you find[00:04:27.120][c] you[/c][00:04:27.360][c] find[/c][00:04:27.600][c] a[/c][00:04:27.759][c] low[/c][00:04:28.160][c] sometime[/c] find you find a low sometime find you find a low sometime relatively[00:04:30.240][c] soon.[/c][00:04:30.720][c] You[/c][00:04:30.960][c] rally,[/c][00:04:31.759][c] but[/c][00:04:32.000][c] it's[/c] relatively soon. You rally, but it's relatively soon. You rally, but it's going[00:04:32.320][c] to[/c][00:04:32.400][c] be[/c][00:04:32.479][c] a[/c][00:04:32.639][c] really[/c][00:04:32.880][c] short[/c][00:04:33.120][c] rally,[/c][00:04:33.520][c] right?[/c] going to be a really short rally, right? going to be a really short rally, right? Like[00:04:33.919][c] it's[/c][00:04:34.080][c] not[/c][00:04:34.720][c] I[/c][00:04:35.040][c] don't[/c][00:04:35.120][c] think[/c][00:04:35.199][c] it'll[/c][00:04:35.520][c] be[/c] Like it's not I don't think it'll be Like it's not I don't think it'll be sustained.[00:04:36.320][c] I[/c][00:04:36.479][c] don't[/c][00:04:36.639][c] think[/c][00:04:36.800][c] anything[/c][00:04:37.040][c] like[/c] sustained. I don't think anything like sustained. I don't think anything like that.[00:04:37.440][c] I[/c][00:04:37.680][c] think[/c][00:04:37.759][c] it[/c][00:04:38.000][c] will[/c][00:04:38.160][c] be[/c][00:04:38.320][c] short-lived[/c][00:04:39.520][c] and[/c] that. I think it will be short-lived and that. I think it will be short-lived and then[00:04:39.919][c] it'll[/c][00:04:40.240][c] lead[/c][00:04:40.479][c] to[/c][00:04:41.680][c] um[/c][00:04:41.840][c] a[/c][00:04:42.080][c] lower[/c][00:04:42.400][c] low[/c][00:04:42.800][c] as[/c][00:04:43.040][c] we[/c] then it'll lead to um a lower low as we then it'll lead to um a lower low as we get[00:04:43.360][c] further[/c][00:04:43.680][c] out[/c][00:04:44.000][c] into[/c][00:04:44.479][c] into[/c][00:04:44.880][c] this[/c][00:04:45.040][c] year.[/c] get further out into into this year. get further out into into this year. Now,[00:04:45.520][c] I[/c][00:04:45.680][c] mean,[/c][00:04:45.840][c] things[/c][00:04:46.080][c] to[/c][00:04:46.960][c] say,[/c][00:04:47.199][c] all[/c][00:04:47.280][c] right,[/c] Now, I mean, things to say, all right, Now, I mean, things to say, all right, maybe[00:04:47.759][c] it's[/c][00:04:48.000][c] wrong.[/c][00:04:48.479][c] You[/c][00:04:48.639][c] have[/c][00:04:48.720][c] to[/c][00:04:48.880][c] look[/c][00:04:48.960][c] at[/c] maybe it's wrong. You have to look at maybe it's wrong. You have to look at things[00:04:49.280][c] like[/c][00:04:49.440][c] the[/c][00:04:49.600][c] bull[/c][00:04:49.919][c] market[/c][00:04:50.160][c] support[/c] things like the bull market support things like the bull market support band.[00:04:50.960][c] This[/c][00:04:51.040][c] is[/c][00:04:51.120][c] just[/c][00:04:51.280][c] a[/c][00:04:51.360][c] combination[/c][00:04:51.680][c] of[/c][00:04:51.840][c] the[/c] band. This is just a combination of the band. This is just a combination of the 20we[00:04:52.320][c] SMAN,[/c][00:04:52.639][c] the[/c][00:04:52.800][c] 21week[/c][00:04:53.280][c] EMA.[/c] 20we SMAN, the 21week EMA. 20we SMAN, the 21week EMA. Usually,[00:04:55.840][c] this[/c][00:04:56.080][c] is[/c][00:04:56.240][c] just[/c][00:04:56.400][c] resistance[/c][00:04:56.880][c] in[/c][00:04:57.040][c] bare[/c] Usually, this is just resistance in bare Usually, this is just resistance in bare markets.[00:04:58.720][c] And[/c][00:04:58.880][c] you[/c][00:04:59.120][c] can[/c][00:04:59.199][c] see[/c][00:04:59.280][c] that[/c][00:04:59.520][c] yeah,[/c] markets. And you can see that yeah, markets. And you can see that yeah, sometimes[00:05:00.080][c] we[/c][00:05:00.240][c] get[/c][00:05:00.400][c] slightly[/c][00:05:00.800][c] above[/c][00:05:01.040][c] it,[/c][00:05:01.199][c] but[/c] sometimes we get slightly above it, but sometimes we get slightly above it, but we[00:05:01.759][c] don't[/c][00:05:01.919][c] normally[/c][00:05:02.400][c] get[/c][00:05:03.120][c] multiple[/c][00:05:03.680][c] weekly[/c] we don't normally get multiple weekly we don't normally get multiple weekly closes[00:05:04.560][c] above[/c][00:05:04.880][c] it.[/c][00:05:05.360][c] Uh[/c][00:05:05.680][c] there[/c][00:05:05.840][c] was[/c][00:05:05.919][c] a[/c][00:05:06.080][c] brief[/c] closes above it. Uh there was a brief closes above it. Uh there was a brief period[00:05:06.560][c] over[/c][00:05:06.800][c] here[/c][00:05:06.880][c] in[/c][00:05:07.120][c] 2014[/c][00:05:07.600][c] in[/c][00:05:07.840][c] the[/c][00:05:08.000][c] summer[/c] period over here in 2014 in the summer period over here in 2014 in the summer after[00:05:08.880][c] a[/c][00:05:09.199][c] massive[/c][00:05:09.600][c] capitulation[/c][00:05:10.320][c] into[/c][00:05:10.800][c] into[/c] after a massive capitulation into into after a massive capitulation into into April.[00:05:12.160][c] But[/c][00:05:13.120][c] what[/c][00:05:13.440][c] I[/c][00:05:13.600][c] tend[/c][00:05:13.840][c] to[/c][00:05:14.000][c] use[/c][00:05:14.720][c] as[/c][00:05:15.120][c] sort[/c][00:05:15.280][c] of[/c] April. But what I tend to use as sort of April. But what I tend to use as sort of confirmation[00:05:16.560][c] that[/c][00:05:16.880][c] a[/c][00:05:17.120][c] bull[/c][00:05:17.440][c] market[/c][00:05:17.759][c] is[/c][00:05:18.000][c] back,[/c] confirmation that a bull market is back, confirmation that a bull market is back, it's[00:05:18.479][c] it's[/c][00:05:18.720][c] a[/c][00:05:18.880][c] lagging[/c][00:05:19.199][c] indicator,[/c][00:05:19.680][c] but[/c][00:05:19.919][c] one[/c] it's it's a lagging indicator, but one it's it's a lagging indicator, but one of the[00:05:20.240][c] things[/c][00:05:20.320][c] you[/c][00:05:20.560][c] can[/c][00:05:20.720][c] use[/c][00:05:20.880][c] is[/c][00:05:21.120][c] that[/c][00:05:21.360][c] 50we[/c] of the things you can use is that 50we of the things you can use is that 50we moving[00:05:22.160][c] average[/c][00:05:22.720][c] because[/c][00:05:23.440][c] in[/c][00:05:23.680][c] all[/c][00:05:23.919][c] prior[/c][00:05:24.240][c] bare[/c] moving average because in all prior bare moving average because in all prior bare markets,[00:05:25.840][c] you[/c][00:05:26.000][c] know,[/c][00:05:26.160][c] it[/c][00:05:26.560][c] it[/c][00:05:26.800][c] wasn't[/c][00:05:27.440][c] the[/c][00:05:27.600][c] bare[/c] markets, you know, it it wasn't the bare markets, you know, it it wasn't the bare market[00:05:28.240][c] was[/c][00:05:28.479][c] not[/c][00:05:28.639][c] really[/c][00:05:28.960][c] decisively[/c][00:05:29.600][c] over[/c] market was not really decisively over market was not really decisively over until[00:05:30.400][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:05:31.039][c] reclaimed[/c][00:05:31.840][c] its[/c][00:05:32.240][c] 50week[/c] until Bitcoin reclaimed its 50week until Bitcoin reclaimed its 50week moving[00:05:33.199][c] average.[/c][00:05:34.080][c] Um,[/c][00:05:34.400][c] and[/c][00:05:34.639][c] so[/c][00:05:34.880][c] until[/c][00:05:35.199][c] that[/c] moving average. Um, and so until that moving average. Um, and so until that happens,[00:05:36.880][c] especially[/c][00:05:37.360][c] this[/c][00:05:37.600][c] early[/c][00:05:37.840][c] in[/c][00:05:38.000][c] the[/c] happens, especially this early in the happens, especially this early in the midterm[00:05:38.479][c] year,[/c][00:05:38.720][c] I[/c][00:05:38.880][c] think[/c][00:05:38.960][c] it[/c][00:05:39.120][c] makes[/c][00:05:39.280][c] sense[/c][00:05:39.440][c] to[/c] midterm year, I think it makes sense to midterm year, I think it makes sense to just[00:05:39.759][c] assume[/c][00:05:40.000][c] it's[/c][00:05:40.160][c] a[/c][00:05:40.320][c] bare[/c][00:05:40.560][c] market.[/c][00:05:41.199][c] I'm[/c][00:05:41.520][c] not[/c] just assume it's a bare market. I'm not just assume it's a bare market. I'm not saying[00:05:41.919][c] that[/c][00:05:42.160][c] you[/c][00:05:42.400][c] should[/c][00:05:42.560][c] wait[/c][00:05:42.880][c] for[/c][00:05:43.120][c] Bitcoin[/c] saying that you should wait for Bitcoin saying that you should wait for Bitcoin to[00:05:43.680][c] get[/c][00:05:43.840][c] back[/c][00:05:44.080][c] above[/c][00:05:44.320][c] the[/c][00:05:44.560][c] 50WE[/c][00:05:45.120][c] to[/c][00:05:45.360][c] buy.[/c] to get back above the 50WE to buy. to get back above the 50WE to buy. I[00:05:47.840][c] just[/c][00:05:48.000][c] think[/c][00:05:48.160][c] it's[/c][00:05:48.560][c] too[/c][00:05:48.880][c] early[/c][00:05:49.120][c] in[/c][00:05:49.440][c] the[/c] I just think it's too early in the I just think it's too early in the midterm[00:05:50.080][c] year[/c][00:05:50.720][c] to[/c][00:05:51.039][c] think[/c][00:05:51.199][c] of[/c][00:05:51.360][c] that[/c][00:05:51.520][c] as[/c][00:05:51.680][c] the[/c] midterm year to think of that as the midterm year to think of that as the most[00:05:52.000][c] likely[/c][00:05:52.320][c] outcome.[/c][00:05:52.639][c] Now,[/c][00:05:52.800][c] if[/c][00:05:52.960][c] this[/c][00:05:53.199][c] were[/c] most likely outcome. Now, if this were most likely outcome. Now, if this were October[00:05:54.720][c] uh[/c][00:05:54.800][c] or[/c][00:05:55.120][c] sometime[/c][00:05:55.520][c] later[/c][00:05:55.840][c] this[/c][00:05:56.080][c] year,[/c] October uh or sometime later this year, October uh or sometime later this year, I[00:05:57.039][c] might[/c][00:05:57.199][c] be[/c][00:05:57.360][c] a[/c][00:05:57.520][c] lot[/c][00:05:57.680][c] more[/c][00:05:57.919][c] bullish[/c][00:05:58.320][c] on[/c][00:05:58.479][c] it[/c][00:05:58.720][c] even[/c] I might be a lot more bullish on it even I might be a lot more bullish on it even if[00:05:59.039][c] we[/c][00:05:59.199][c] were[/c][00:05:59.280][c] not[/c][00:05:59.440][c] above[/c][00:05:59.680][c] the[/c][00:05:59.840][c] 50we.[/c][00:06:00.320][c] But[/c][00:06:00.479][c] I[/c] if we were not above the 50we. But I if we were not above the 50we. But I just[00:06:00.720][c] think[/c][00:06:00.880][c] that[/c][00:06:01.120][c] 50week[/c][00:06:01.600][c] moving[/c][00:06:01.919][c] average[/c][00:06:02.800][c] is[/c] just think that 50week moving average is just think that 50week moving average is going[00:06:03.199][c] to[/c][00:06:03.360][c] be[/c][00:06:03.600][c] resistance[/c][00:06:04.560][c] and[/c][00:06:04.639][c] and[/c][00:06:04.960][c] once[/c][00:06:05.199][c] we[/c] going to be resistance and and once we going to be resistance and and once we get[00:06:05.520][c] past[/c][00:06:05.759][c] it,[/c][00:06:06.000][c] then[/c][00:06:06.240][c] then[/c][00:06:06.560][c] we[/c][00:06:06.720][c] can[/c][00:06:06.800][c] look[/c][00:06:06.960][c] and[/c] get past it, then then we can look and get past it, then then we can look and say,[00:06:07.199][c] \"All[/c][00:06:07.280][c] right,[/c][00:06:07.520][c] the[/c][00:06:07.680][c] the[/c][00:06:07.840][c] the[/c][00:06:07.919][c] the[/c][00:06:08.479][c] bull[/c] say, \"All right, the the the the bull say, \"All right, the the the the bull market[00:06:09.039][c] might[/c][00:06:09.199][c] be[/c][00:06:09.360][c] here.\"[/c][00:06:09.600][c] But[/c][00:06:09.840][c] I[/c][00:06:10.080][c] think[/c][00:06:10.160][c] it's[/c] market might be here.\" But I think it's market might be here.\" But I think it's too[00:06:10.560][c] early[/c][00:06:10.800][c] at[/c][00:06:11.039][c] this[/c][00:06:11.120][c] point[/c][00:06:11.280][c] to[/c][00:06:11.440][c] say[/c][00:06:11.600][c] that.[/c] too early at this point to say that. too early at this point to say that. >> Okay.[00:06:12.880][c] And[/c][00:06:13.039][c] I[/c][00:06:13.280][c] think[/c][00:06:13.360][c] there's[/c][00:06:13.600][c] a[/c][00:06:13.919][c] great[/c][00:06:14.160][c] point[/c] >> Okay. And I think there's a great point >> Okay. And I think there's a great point to[00:06:14.800][c] double[/c][00:06:15.199][c] click[/c][00:06:15.360][c] on[/c][00:06:16.240][c] um[/c][00:06:16.400][c] and[/c][00:06:16.720][c] talk[/c][00:06:16.960][c] carefully[/c] to double click on um and talk carefully to double click on um and talk carefully about.[00:06:17.759][c] So[/c][00:06:18.319][c] you've[/c][00:06:18.560][c] also[/c][00:06:19.039][c] said[/c][00:06:19.199][c] that[/c][00:06:19.440][c] you[/c] about. So you've also said that you about. So you've also said that you believe[00:06:19.840][c] bare[/c][00:06:20.160][c] markets[/c][00:06:20.479][c] are[/c][00:06:20.720][c] incredibly[/c] believe bare markets are incredibly believe bare markets are incredibly difficult[00:06:21.759][c] to[/c][00:06:22.080][c] actively[/c][00:06:22.639][c] trade,[/c][00:06:23.280][c] especially[/c] difficult to actively trade, especially difficult to actively trade, especially with[00:06:24.080][c] something[/c][00:06:24.400][c] as[/c][00:06:24.720][c] volatile[/c][00:06:25.120][c] as[/c][00:06:25.360][c] Bitcoin.[/c] with something as volatile as Bitcoin. with something as volatile as Bitcoin. Can[00:06:26.319][c] you[/c][00:06:26.479][c] walk[/c][00:06:26.639][c] us[/c][00:06:26.800][c] through[/c][00:06:27.039][c] why[/c][00:06:27.199][c] it's[/c][00:06:27.440][c] so[/c] Can you walk us through why it's so Can you walk us through why it's so tactically[00:06:28.160][c] challenging,[/c][00:06:28.720][c] not[/c][00:06:28.880][c] just[/c][00:06:29.039][c] for[/c][00:06:29.199][c] the[/c] tactically challenging, not just for the tactically challenging, not just for the bulls[00:06:29.759][c] trying[/c][00:06:29.919][c] to[/c][00:06:30.000][c] catch[/c][00:06:30.240][c] a[/c][00:06:30.400][c] bottom,[/c][00:06:30.720][c] but[/c][00:06:30.960][c] for[/c] bulls trying to catch a bottom, but for bulls trying to catch a bottom, but for bears,[00:06:31.680][c] too.[/c][00:06:32.240][c] Uh[/c][00:06:32.479][c] because[/c][00:06:32.720][c] I[/c][00:06:32.960][c] think[/c][00:06:33.039][c] people[/c] bears, too. Uh because I think people bears, too. Uh because I think people assume[00:06:33.680][c] that[/c][00:06:33.840][c] if[/c][00:06:34.080][c] you[/c][00:06:34.160][c] know[/c][00:06:34.240][c] it's[/c][00:06:34.400][c] a[/c][00:06:34.560][c] bare[/c] assume that if you know it's a bare assume that if you know it's a bare market,[00:06:35.039][c] it[/c][00:06:35.199][c] should[/c][00:06:35.360][c] be[/c][00:06:35.520][c] easy[/c][00:06:35.680][c] to[/c][00:06:35.919][c] profit[/c] market, it should be easy to profit market, it should be easy to profit from.[00:06:36.720][c] Uh[/c][00:06:36.960][c] but[/c][00:06:37.120][c] I[/c][00:06:37.280][c] think[/c][00:06:37.360][c] you'd[/c][00:06:37.680][c] push[/c][00:06:37.840][c] back[/c][00:06:38.080][c] on[/c] from. Uh but I think you'd push back on from. Uh but I think you'd push back on that.[00:06:39.199][c] Yeah.[/c][00:06:39.520][c] I[/c][00:06:39.759][c] mean,[/c][00:06:39.840][c] I[/c][00:06:40.080][c] think[/c][00:06:40.400][c] so.[/c][00:06:40.560][c] So,[/c][00:06:40.800][c] bare[/c] that. Yeah. I mean, I think so. So, bare that. Yeah. I mean, I think so. So, bare markets[00:06:41.520][c] are[/c][00:06:41.759][c] famous[/c][00:06:42.080][c] for[/c][00:06:42.400][c] making[/c][00:06:42.800][c] fools[/c][00:06:43.280][c] of[/c] markets are famous for making fools of markets are famous for making fools of both[00:06:43.759][c] bulls[/c][00:06:44.160][c] and[/c][00:06:44.479][c] bears.[/c][00:06:45.440][c] And[/c][00:06:45.759][c] the[/c][00:06:45.919][c] the[/c][00:06:46.240][c] reason[/c] both bulls and bears. And the the reason both bulls and bears. And the the reason it[00:06:46.639][c] can[/c][00:06:46.720][c] make[/c][00:06:47.199][c] fools[/c][00:06:47.600][c] of[/c][00:06:47.759][c] bears[/c][00:06:48.240][c] because[/c][00:06:48.400][c] a[/c][00:06:48.560][c] lot[/c] it can make fools of bears because a lot it can make fools of bears because a lot of[00:06:48.800][c] I[/c][00:06:48.960][c] don't[/c][00:06:49.120][c] I[/c][00:06:49.360][c] don't[/c][00:06:49.520][c] short[/c][00:06:49.759][c] the[/c][00:06:50.000][c] market,[/c] of I don't I don't short the market, of I don't I don't short the market, right?[00:06:50.960][c] Um[/c][00:06:51.520][c] because[/c][00:06:51.840][c] I[/c][00:06:52.080][c] think[/c][00:06:52.160][c] if[/c][00:06:52.400][c] you[/c][00:06:52.560][c] do[/c][00:06:53.039][c] like[/c] right? Um because I think if you do like right? Um because I think if you do like some[00:06:53.520][c] people[/c][00:06:53.759][c] make[/c][00:06:54.000][c] money[/c][00:06:54.160][c] doing[/c][00:06:54.400][c] it,[/c][00:06:54.560][c] but[/c] some people make money doing it, but some people make money doing it, but most[00:06:55.039][c] people[/c][00:06:55.360][c] lose[/c][00:06:55.600][c] a[/c][00:06:55.840][c] lot[/c][00:06:55.919][c] of[/c][00:06:56.000][c] money[/c][00:06:56.160][c] doing[/c] most people lose a lot of money doing most people lose a lot of money doing it.[00:06:57.039][c] And[/c][00:06:57.360][c] essentially[/c][00:06:57.600][c] what[/c][00:06:57.840][c] happens[/c][00:06:58.080][c] is[/c] it. And essentially what happens is it. And essentially what happens is people[00:06:58.639][c] will[/c][00:06:58.880][c] short[/c][00:06:59.120][c] the[/c][00:06:59.360][c] market[/c][00:07:00.240][c] and[/c][00:07:00.479][c] and[/c] people will short the market and and people will short the market and and then[00:07:01.039][c] the[/c][00:07:01.199][c] market[/c][00:07:01.440][c] will[/c][00:07:01.680][c] just[/c][00:07:01.840][c] kind[/c][00:07:02.000][c] of[/c][00:07:02.160][c] rally[/c] then the market will just kind of rally then the market will just kind of rally for[00:07:02.720][c] a[/c][00:07:02.960][c] while.[/c][00:07:03.919][c] And[/c][00:07:04.160][c] in[/c][00:07:04.319][c] fact,[/c][00:07:04.479][c] in[/c][00:07:04.720][c] a[/c][00:07:04.880][c] lot[/c][00:07:04.960][c] of[/c] for a while. And in fact, in a lot of for a while. And in fact, in a lot of bare[00:07:05.520][c] markets,[/c][00:07:06.720][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:07:07.280][c] spends[/c][00:07:07.680][c] more[/c][00:07:08.319][c] time[/c] bare markets, Bitcoin spends more time bare markets, Bitcoin spends more time trending[00:07:09.599][c] up[/c][00:07:10.080][c] than[/c][00:07:10.400][c] trending[/c][00:07:10.880][c] down.[/c][00:07:11.919][c] Um,[/c][00:07:12.479][c] and[/c] trending up than trending down. Um, and trending up than trending down. Um, and that's[00:07:12.880][c] actually[/c][00:07:13.120][c] really[/c][00:07:13.360][c] common[/c][00:07:13.599][c] with[/c] that's actually really common with that's actually really common with stocks[00:07:14.240][c] as[/c][00:07:14.400][c] well.[/c][00:07:14.639][c] There's[/c][00:07:14.880][c] a[/c][00:07:15.039][c] lot[/c][00:07:15.120][c] of[/c][00:07:15.280][c] times[/c] stocks as well. There's a lot of times stocks as well. There's a lot of times that[00:07:16.160][c] the[/c][00:07:16.400][c] market[/c][00:07:16.720][c] will[/c][00:07:17.039][c] like[/c][00:07:17.280][c] generally[/c] that the market will like generally that the market will like generally trend[00:07:18.319][c] up[/c][00:07:19.280][c] in[/c][00:07:19.599][c] bare[/c][00:07:19.919][c] markets[/c][00:07:20.240][c] for[/c][00:07:20.560][c] like[/c][00:07:20.800][c] weeks[/c] trend up in bare markets for like weeks trend up in bare markets for like weeks or[00:07:21.280][c] months[/c][00:07:21.520][c] at[/c][00:07:21.680][c] a[/c][00:07:21.919][c] time.[/c][00:07:22.560][c] And[/c][00:07:22.720][c] then[/c][00:07:22.880][c] when[/c][00:07:23.039][c] you[/c] or months at a time. And then when you or months at a time. And then when you do[00:07:23.440][c] drop,[/c][00:07:23.840][c] it's[/c][00:07:24.160][c] just[/c][00:07:24.319][c] like[/c][00:07:24.560][c] really[/c][00:07:24.880][c] brief[/c] do drop, it's just like really brief do drop, it's just like really brief drops.[00:07:25.599][c] Like[/c][00:07:25.840][c] look[/c][00:07:25.919][c] at[/c][00:07:26.160][c] 2022.[/c][00:07:27.039][c] you[/c][00:07:27.280][c] had[/c][00:07:27.680][c] you[/c] drops. Like look at 2022. you had you drops. Like look at 2022. you had you trended[00:07:28.319][c] up[/c][00:07:28.479][c] for[/c][00:07:28.960][c] months,[/c][00:07:29.919][c] you[/c][00:07:30.080][c] had[/c][00:07:30.240][c] a[/c][00:07:30.560][c] drop,[/c] trended up for months, you had a drop, trended up for months, you had a drop, and[00:07:31.680][c] then[/c][00:07:31.840][c] you[/c][00:07:32.080][c] still[/c][00:07:32.639][c] tren[/c][00:07:32.960][c] you[/c][00:07:33.199][c] kept[/c] and then you still tren you kept and then you still tren you kept trending[00:07:34.000][c] generally[/c][00:07:34.479][c] up[/c][00:07:34.800][c] for[/c][00:07:35.120][c] most[/c][00:07:35.360][c] of[/c][00:07:35.520][c] the[/c] trending generally up for most of the trending generally up for most of the weeks.[00:07:36.560][c] And[/c][00:07:36.800][c] so[/c][00:07:37.440][c] that's[/c][00:07:37.680][c] how[/c][00:07:37.840][c] the[/c][00:07:38.160][c] market[/c][00:07:38.479][c] kind[/c] weeks. And so that's how the market kind weeks. And so that's how the market kind of[00:07:38.880][c] wrecks[/c][00:07:39.199][c] the[/c][00:07:39.440][c] bears[/c][00:07:39.759][c] is[/c][00:07:40.000][c] that[/c][00:07:40.160][c] like[/c][00:07:40.319][c] yeah,[/c] of wrecks the bears is that like yeah, of wrecks the bears is that like yeah, like[00:07:40.720][c] they're[/c][00:07:41.039][c] they[/c][00:07:41.280][c] can[/c][00:07:41.440][c] be[/c][00:07:41.680][c] right,[/c][00:07:42.319][c] but[/c] like they're they can be right, but like they're they can be right, but there's[00:07:42.800][c] a[/c][00:07:43.039][c] difference[/c][00:07:43.280][c] between[/c][00:07:43.599][c] making[/c] there's a difference between making there's a difference between making money[00:07:44.240][c] and[/c][00:07:44.560][c] being[/c][00:07:44.880][c] right.[/c][00:07:45.680][c] Um,[/c][00:07:46.319][c] a[/c][00:07:46.560][c] massive[/c] money and being right. Um, a massive money and being right. Um, a massive difference,[00:07:47.280][c] a[/c][00:07:47.440][c] massive[/c][00:07:47.840][c] difference.[/c][00:07:48.560][c] Um,[/c][00:07:49.599][c] so[/c] difference, a massive difference. Um, so difference, a massive difference. Um, so and[00:07:50.080][c] also[/c][00:07:50.639][c] it's[/c][00:07:50.960][c] hard[/c][00:07:51.199][c] too[/c][00:07:51.440][c] because[/c][00:07:52.160][c] if[/c][00:07:52.479][c] you[/c][00:07:52.720][c] if[/c] and also it's hard too because if you if and also it's hard too because if you if you[00:07:53.039][c] know[/c][00:07:53.199][c] we're[/c][00:07:53.440][c] in[/c][00:07:53.520][c] a[/c][00:07:53.680][c] bare[/c][00:07:53.919][c] market[/c][00:07:54.560][c] and[/c][00:07:54.800][c] you[/c] you know we're in a bare market and you you know we're in a bare market and you want[00:07:55.120][c] to[/c][00:07:55.280][c] try[/c][00:07:55.440][c] to[/c][00:07:55.520][c] time[/c][00:07:55.840][c] counter[/c][00:07:56.160][c] trend[/c] want to try to time counter trend want to try to time counter trend rallies[00:07:56.800][c] to[/c][00:07:56.960][c] make[/c][00:07:57.120][c] some[/c][00:07:57.360][c] money,[/c][00:07:57.599][c] it's[/c][00:07:57.840][c] so[/c][00:07:58.000][c] hard[/c] rallies to make some money, it's so hard rallies to make some money, it's so hard predicting[00:07:58.720][c] when[/c][00:07:58.960][c] those[/c][00:07:59.199][c] counter[/c][00:07:59.520][c] trend[/c] predicting when those counter trend predicting when those counter trend rallies[00:08:00.000][c] are[/c][00:08:00.240][c] even[/c][00:08:00.479][c] going[/c][00:08:00.560][c] to[/c][00:08:00.720][c] occur,[/c][00:08:01.440][c] right?[/c] rallies are even going to occur, right? rallies are even going to occur, right? I[00:08:01.840][c] mean,[/c][00:08:02.080][c] there[/c][00:08:02.319][c] would[/c][00:08:02.479][c] have[/c][00:08:02.639][c] been[/c][00:08:02.800][c] reason[/c][00:08:03.199][c] for[/c] I mean, there would have been reason for I mean, there would have been reason for a[00:08:03.680][c] lot[/c][00:08:03.759][c] of[/c][00:08:03.840][c] people[/c][00:08:04.080][c] to[/c][00:08:04.319][c] believe[/c][00:08:04.639][c] that[/c][00:08:04.879][c] we[/c][00:08:05.039][c] would[/c] a lot of people to believe that we would a lot of people to believe that we would have[00:08:05.280][c] had[/c][00:08:05.360][c] a[/c][00:08:05.520][c] counter[/c][00:08:05.840][c] trend[/c][00:08:06.080][c] rally[/c][00:08:06.720][c] at[/c][00:08:07.120][c] 75K[/c] have had a counter trend rally at 75K have had a counter trend rally at 75K when[00:08:08.720][c] we[/c][00:08:08.960][c] broke[/c][00:08:09.199][c] down[/c][00:08:09.840][c] below[/c][00:08:10.240][c] this[/c][00:08:10.560][c] April[/c][00:08:10.960][c] 2025[/c] when we broke down below this April 2025 when we broke down below this April 2025 level[00:08:11.680][c] and[/c][00:08:11.840][c] that[/c][00:08:12.080][c] just[/c][00:08:12.240][c] hasn't[/c][00:08:12.560][c] happened.[/c][00:08:12.960][c] And[/c] level and that just hasn't happened. And level and that just hasn't happened. And so[00:08:13.680][c] you[/c][00:08:13.919][c] could[/c][00:08:14.080][c] argue[/c][00:08:14.400][c] that[/c][00:08:15.039][c] those[/c][00:08:15.520][c] that[/c][00:08:15.840][c] level[/c] so you could argue that those that level so you could argue that those that level might[00:08:16.560][c] be[/c][00:08:16.720][c] a[/c][00:08:16.960][c] future[/c][00:08:17.280][c] resistance[/c][00:08:17.840][c] level[/c] might be a future resistance level might be a future resistance level because[00:08:18.560][c] the[/c][00:08:18.879][c] people[/c][00:08:18.960][c] that[/c][00:08:19.199][c] bought[/c][00:08:19.520][c] there[/c][00:08:19.840][c] who[/c] because the people that bought there who because the people that bought there who are[00:08:20.240][c] now[/c][00:08:20.479][c] underwater[/c][00:08:21.360][c] might[/c][00:08:21.680][c] want[/c][00:08:21.759][c] to[/c][00:08:21.919][c] get[/c] are now underwater might want to get are now underwater might want to get out.[00:08:22.720][c] Um[/c][00:08:23.280][c] so[/c][00:08:23.520][c] it's[/c][00:08:23.759][c] just[/c][00:08:24.000][c] really[/c][00:08:24.240][c] hard[/c][00:08:24.560][c] and[/c] out. Um so it's just really hard and out. Um so it's just really hard and that's[00:08:24.879][c] why[/c][00:08:25.039][c] I[/c][00:08:25.199][c] say[/c][00:08:25.360][c] in[/c][00:08:25.520][c] midterm[/c][00:08:26.000][c] years[/c][00:08:26.319][c] the[/c] that's why I say in midterm years the that's why I say in midterm years the best[00:08:26.639][c] thing[/c][00:08:26.720][c] that[/c][00:08:26.879][c] I[/c][00:08:27.120][c] think[/c][00:08:27.199][c] a[/c][00:08:27.360][c] lot[/c][00:08:27.440][c] of[/c][00:08:27.599][c] people[/c] best thing that I think a lot of people best thing that I think a lot of people can[00:08:28.000][c] do[/c][00:08:28.160][c] is[/c][00:08:28.319][c] just[/c][00:08:28.560][c] try[/c][00:08:28.639][c] and[/c][00:08:28.879][c] survive[/c][00:08:29.120][c] the[/c][00:08:29.360][c] year,[/c] can do is just try and survive the year, can do is just try and survive the year, control[00:08:30.240][c] the[/c][00:08:30.479][c] draw[/c][00:08:30.720][c] down[/c][00:08:30.879][c] in[/c][00:08:31.120][c] their[/c][00:08:31.280][c] portfolio[/c] control the draw down in their portfolio control the draw down in their portfolio so[00:08:32.320][c] they[/c][00:08:32.560][c] can[/c][00:08:32.640][c] just[/c][00:08:32.800][c] live[/c][00:08:33.039][c] to[/c][00:08:33.200][c] fight[/c][00:08:33.360][c] another[/c] so they can just live to fight another so they can just live to fight another day,[00:08:34.000][c] right?[/c][00:08:34.320][c] live[/c][00:08:34.560][c] to[/c][00:08:34.959][c] to[/c][00:08:35.519][c] have[/c][00:08:35.760][c] their[/c] day, right? live to to have their day, right? live to to have their portfolio[00:08:36.719][c] be[/c][00:08:37.200][c] be[/c][00:08:38.320][c] um[/c][00:08:39.360][c] uh[/c][00:08:39.680][c] at[/c][00:08:39.839][c] a[/c][00:08:40.000][c] height[/c][00:08:40.320][c] of[/c] portfolio be be um uh at a height of portfolio be be um uh at a height of valuation[00:08:40.880][c] by[/c][00:08:41.120][c] the[/c][00:08:41.279][c] end[/c][00:08:41.360][c] of[/c][00:08:41.440][c] the[/c][00:08:41.519][c] midterm[/c][00:08:41.919][c] year[/c] valuation by the end of the midterm year valuation by the end of the midterm year so[00:08:42.240][c] that[/c][00:08:42.399][c] they[/c][00:08:42.640][c] continue[/c][00:08:42.880][c] to[/c][00:08:43.120][c] invest[/c][00:08:43.519][c] and[/c][00:08:43.680][c] and[/c] so that they continue to invest and and so that they continue to invest and and hopefully[00:08:44.399][c] be[/c][00:08:44.959][c] able[/c][00:08:45.200][c] to[/c][00:08:45.360][c] join[/c][00:08:45.600][c] in[/c][00:08:45.760][c] on[/c][00:08:45.920][c] the[/c][00:08:46.080][c] next[/c] hopefully be able to join in on the next hopefully be able to join in on the next bull[00:08:46.480][c] market[/c][00:08:46.720][c] because[/c][00:08:47.040][c] the[/c][00:08:47.279][c] thing[/c][00:08:47.360][c] that[/c][00:08:47.519][c] sucks[/c] bull market because the thing that sucks bull market because the thing that sucks the[00:08:48.000][c] most[/c][00:08:48.160][c] is[/c][00:08:48.320][c] if[/c][00:08:48.560][c] you're[/c][00:08:48.720][c] bullish[/c][00:08:49.040][c] all[/c][00:08:49.200][c] the[/c] the most is if you're bullish all the the most is if you're bullish all the way[00:08:49.440][c] down[/c][00:08:50.160][c] in[/c][00:08:50.399][c] the[/c][00:08:50.560][c] bare[/c][00:08:50.880][c] market,[/c][00:08:51.600][c] then[/c][00:08:51.760][c] you[/c] way down in the bare market, then you way down in the bare market, then you just[00:08:52.080][c] have[/c][00:08:52.240][c] to[/c][00:08:52.320][c] wait[/c][00:08:52.480][c] a[/c][00:08:52.640][c] year[/c][00:08:52.720][c] or[/c][00:08:52.880][c] two[/c][00:08:53.120][c] just[/c][00:08:53.279][c] to[/c] just have to wait a year or two just to just have to wait a year or two just to break[00:08:53.680][c] even[/c][00:08:53.920][c] again.[/c] break even again. break even again. >> Right.[00:08:55.680][c] Right.[/c][00:08:56.240][c] And[/c][00:08:56.480][c] then[/c][00:08:56.640][c] can[/c][00:08:56.880][c] you[/c][00:08:57.120][c] talk[/c] >> Right. Right. And then can you talk >> Right. Right. And then can you talk about[00:08:58.000][c] investor[/c][00:08:58.560][c] and[/c][00:08:58.800][c] influencer[/c][00:08:59.519][c] psychology[/c] about investor and influencer psychology about investor and influencer psychology and[00:09:00.399][c] how[/c][00:09:00.640][c] it[/c][00:09:00.880][c] actually[/c][00:09:01.200][c] shapes[/c][00:09:01.519][c] these[/c][00:09:01.839][c] bull[/c] and how it actually shapes these bull and how it actually shapes these bull and[00:09:02.240][c] bear[/c][00:09:02.560][c] cycles[/c][00:09:03.040][c] because[/c][00:09:03.600][c] I[/c][00:09:03.839][c] think[/c][00:09:04.000][c] a[/c][00:09:04.160][c] lot[/c][00:09:04.240][c] of[/c] and bear cycles because I think a lot of and bear cycles because I think a lot of people[00:09:04.560][c] underestimate[/c][00:09:05.279][c] how[/c][00:09:05.519][c] much[/c][00:09:05.680][c] of[/c][00:09:05.839][c] the[/c] people underestimate how much of the people underestimate how much of the price[00:09:06.320][c] action[/c][00:09:06.640][c] is[/c][00:09:06.880][c] actually[/c][00:09:07.120][c] driven[/c][00:09:07.519][c] by[/c] price action is actually driven by price action is actually driven by collective[00:09:08.320][c] behavior[/c][00:09:08.880][c] and[/c][00:09:09.120][c] narrative[/c][00:09:10.000][c] rather[/c] collective behavior and narrative rather collective behavior and narrative rather than[00:09:10.480][c] just[/c][00:09:10.800][c] fundamentals.[/c][00:09:11.600][c] Uh[/c][00:09:11.920][c] perhaps[/c][00:09:12.320][c] even[/c] than just fundamentals. Uh perhaps even than just fundamentals. Uh perhaps even the[00:09:12.640][c] four-year[/c][00:09:13.120][c] cycle[/c][00:09:13.440][c] narrative[/c][00:09:13.920][c] being[/c] the four-year cycle narrative being the four-year cycle narrative being partially[00:09:14.720][c] a[/c][00:09:14.959][c] self-fulfilling[/c][00:09:15.680][c] prophecy[/c] partially a self-fulfilling prophecy partially a self-fulfilling prophecy thus[00:09:17.040][c] far[/c] thus far thus far >> actually.[00:09:19.200][c] So[/c][00:09:19.440][c] I[/c][00:09:19.680][c] generally[/c][00:09:20.080][c] think[/c][00:09:20.240][c] that[/c] >> actually. So I generally think that >> actually. So I generally think that narrative[00:09:21.120][c] follows[/c][00:09:21.680][c] price.[/c][00:09:22.240][c] I[/c][00:09:22.560][c] think[/c][00:09:22.720][c] that[/c] narrative follows price. I think that narrative follows price. I think that any[00:09:24.000][c] type[/c][00:09:24.160][c] of[/c][00:09:24.399][c] price[/c][00:09:24.720][c] action,[/c][00:09:25.120][c] we[/c][00:09:25.279][c] can[/c][00:09:25.440][c] always[/c] any type of price action, we can always any type of price action, we can always retroactively[00:09:26.880][c] explain[/c][00:09:27.440][c] what's[/c][00:09:27.839][c] happening[/c] retroactively explain what's happening retroactively explain what's happening with[00:09:28.480][c] a[/c][00:09:28.720][c] narrative.[/c][00:09:30.160][c] Like[/c][00:09:30.399][c] if[/c][00:09:30.560][c] you[/c][00:09:30.640][c] think[/c] with a narrative. Like if you think with a narrative. Like if you think about,[00:09:31.760][c] you[/c][00:09:31.920][c] know,[/c][00:09:32.399][c] everything[/c][00:09:32.640][c] that[/c][00:09:32.880][c] was[/c] about, you know, everything that was about, you know, everything that was going[00:09:33.120][c] on[/c][00:09:33.360][c] last[/c][00:09:33.680][c] year,[/c][00:09:34.080][c] a[/c][00:09:34.320][c] lot[/c][00:09:34.399][c] of[/c][00:09:34.480][c] people[/c][00:09:34.720][c] were[/c] going on last year, a lot of people were going on last year, a lot of people were using[00:09:35.200][c] it[/c][00:09:35.360][c] to[/c][00:09:35.600][c] say[/c][00:09:35.760][c] why[/c][00:09:36.000][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:09:36.480][c] was[/c][00:09:36.720][c] so[/c] using it to say why Bitcoin was so using it to say why Bitcoin was so bullish,[00:09:37.519][c] despite[/c][00:09:37.920][c] the[/c][00:09:38.080][c] fact[/c][00:09:38.160][c] that[/c][00:09:38.399][c] Bitcoin[/c] bullish, despite the fact that Bitcoin bullish, despite the fact that Bitcoin didn't[00:09:39.200][c] really[/c][00:09:39.440][c] do[/c][00:09:39.600][c] that[/c][00:09:39.760][c] well[/c][00:09:39.920][c] in[/c][00:09:40.240][c] 2025.[/c][00:09:41.360][c] It[/c] didn't really do that well in 2025. It didn't really do that well in 2025. It did[00:09:41.760][c] make[/c][00:09:42.080][c] marginally[/c][00:09:42.720][c] new[/c][00:09:42.959][c] highs.[/c][00:09:43.839][c] But[/c][00:09:44.000][c] the[/c] did make marginally new highs. But the did make marginally new highs. But the reality[00:09:44.480][c] is[/c][00:09:44.720][c] you[/c][00:09:44.880][c] would[/c][00:09:44.959][c] have[/c][00:09:45.120][c] been[/c][00:09:45.279][c] better[/c] reality is you would have been better reality is you would have been better off[00:09:45.760][c] just[/c][00:09:46.000][c] sitting[/c][00:09:46.240][c] in[/c][00:09:46.480][c] cash[/c][00:09:46.800][c] in[/c][00:09:47.040][c] 2025[/c][00:09:47.760][c] than[/c] off just sitting in cash in 2025 than off just sitting in cash in 2025 than holding[00:09:48.320][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:09:48.800][c] from[/c][00:09:48.959][c] the[/c][00:09:49.360][c] from[/c][00:09:49.680][c] the[/c][00:09:49.839][c] daily[/c] holding Bitcoin from the from the daily holding Bitcoin from the from the daily from[00:09:50.399][c] the[/c][00:09:50.480][c] yearly[/c][00:09:50.800][c] open[/c][00:09:50.959][c] to[/c][00:09:51.120][c] the[/c][00:09:51.200][c] yearly[/c] from the yearly open to the yearly from the yearly open to the yearly close,[00:09:51.760][c] right?[/c][00:09:51.920][c] You[/c][00:09:52.000][c] would[/c][00:09:52.080][c] have[/c][00:09:52.160][c] just[/c][00:09:52.320][c] been[/c] close, right? You would have just been close, right? You would have just been better[00:09:52.560][c] off[/c][00:09:52.720][c] in[/c][00:09:52.880][c] cash.[/c][00:09:53.360][c] And[/c][00:09:53.519][c] so[/c][00:09:53.680][c] I[/c][00:09:54.080][c] think[/c][00:09:54.160][c] that,[/c] better off in cash. And so I think that, better off in cash. And so I think that, you[00:09:54.800][c] know,[/c][00:09:54.959][c] had[/c][00:09:55.200][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:09:55.920][c] gone[/c][00:09:56.160][c] up[/c][00:09:56.399][c] a[/c][00:09:56.640][c] lot[/c][00:09:56.800][c] last[/c] you know, had Bitcoin gone up a lot last you know, had Bitcoin gone up a lot last year,[00:09:57.760][c] a[/c][00:09:57.920][c] lot[/c][00:09:58.080][c] of[/c][00:09:58.160][c] people[/c][00:09:58.320][c] would[/c][00:09:58.480][c] have[/c][00:09:58.640][c] used[/c] year, a lot of people would have used year, a lot of people would have used that[00:09:59.040][c] and[/c][00:09:59.200][c] said,[/c][00:09:59.360][c] \"All[/c][00:09:59.519][c] right,[/c][00:09:59.760][c] well,[/c][00:09:59.920][c] it's[/c] that and said, \"All right, well, it's that and said, \"All right, well, it's because[00:10:00.320][c] we[/c][00:10:00.560][c] have[/c][00:10:00.640][c] a[/c][00:10:00.800][c] pro[/c][00:10:01.040][c] crypto[/c] because we have a pro crypto because we have a pro crypto administration[00:10:01.920][c] in[/c][00:10:02.160][c] the[/c][00:10:02.320][c] United[/c][00:10:02.560][c] States.[/c] administration in the United States. administration in the United States. It's[00:10:03.120][c] because,[/c][00:10:03.920][c] you[/c][00:10:04.080][c] know,[/c][00:10:04.800][c] um,[/c][00:10:04.959][c] the[/c][00:10:05.120][c] money[/c] It's because, you know, um, the money It's because, you know, um, the money printers[00:10:05.760][c] are[/c][00:10:05.920][c] turning[/c][00:10:06.160][c] back[/c][00:10:06.320][c] on.[/c][00:10:06.720][c] It's[/c] printers are turning back on. It's printers are turning back on. It's because[00:10:07.440][c] the[/c][00:10:07.680][c] ETFs.[/c][00:10:08.399][c] It's[/c][00:10:08.640][c] because[/c][00:10:08.800][c] of[/c] because the ETFs. It's because of because the ETFs. It's because of everything.\"[00:10:09.360][c] Right?[/c][00:10:09.839][c] But[/c][00:10:10.000][c] that[/c][00:10:10.240][c] didn't[/c] everything.\" Right? But that didn't everything.\" Right? But that didn't happen.[00:10:11.200][c] And[/c][00:10:11.440][c] so[/c][00:10:11.760][c] then[/c][00:10:12.080][c] people[/c][00:10:12.399][c] then[/c][00:10:12.640][c] find[/c] happen. And so then people then find happen. And so then people then find another[00:10:13.279][c] narrative[/c][00:10:13.839][c] which[/c][00:10:14.079][c] you[/c][00:10:14.320][c] can[/c][00:10:14.480][c] also[/c] another narrative which you can also another narrative which you can also explain[00:10:15.120][c] things.[/c][00:10:15.519][c] But[/c][00:10:15.680][c] I[/c][00:10:15.760][c] I[/c][00:10:16.079][c] do[/c][00:10:16.320][c] think[/c] explain things. But I I do think explain things. But I I do think narrative[00:10:17.200][c] follows[/c][00:10:17.680][c] price.[/c][00:10:18.399][c] The[/c][00:10:18.720][c] the[/c][00:10:18.959][c] the[/c] narrative follows price. The the the narrative follows price. The the the interesting[00:10:19.440][c] thing[/c][00:10:19.600][c] about[/c][00:10:19.760][c] the[/c][00:10:20.000][c] social[/c] interesting thing about the social interesting thing about the social behavior[00:10:20.640][c] is[/c][00:10:20.800][c] we[/c][00:10:20.959][c] see[/c][00:10:21.120][c] it[/c][00:10:21.360][c] every[/c][00:10:21.760][c] every[/c][00:10:22.160][c] cycle.[/c] behavior is we see it every every cycle. behavior is we see it every every cycle. We'll[00:10:23.120][c] see[/c][00:10:23.279][c] several[/c][00:10:23.680][c] years[/c][00:10:24.079][c] of[/c][00:10:24.240][c] a[/c][00:10:24.480][c] bull[/c][00:10:24.720][c] market[/c] We'll see several years of a bull market We'll see several years of a bull market and[00:10:25.200][c] people[/c][00:10:25.440][c] get[/c][00:10:25.680][c] real[/c][00:10:26.079][c] really[/c][00:10:26.560][c] bullish.[/c][00:10:27.120][c] They[/c] and people get real really bullish. They and people get real really bullish. They get[00:10:27.440][c] really[/c][00:10:28.079][c] euphoric[/c][00:10:29.120][c] and[/c][00:10:29.360][c] then[/c][00:10:29.519][c] the[/c][00:10:29.680][c] the[/c][00:10:30.640][c] Q4[/c] get really euphoric and then the the Q4 get really euphoric and then the the Q4 of[00:10:31.360][c] the[/c][00:10:31.440][c] post[/c][00:10:31.760][c] having[/c][00:10:32.000][c] year[/c][00:10:32.240][c] strikes[/c][00:10:33.680][c] and[/c][00:10:34.399][c] it[/c] of the post having year strikes and it of the post having year strikes and it takes[00:10:34.880][c] a[/c][00:10:35.040][c] lot[/c][00:10:35.120][c] of[/c][00:10:35.279][c] people[/c][00:10:35.440][c] by[/c][00:10:35.760][c] surprise[/c] takes a lot of people by surprise takes a lot of people by surprise although[00:10:36.560][c] it[/c][00:10:36.720][c] shouldn't.[/c][00:10:37.120][c] you[/c][00:10:37.360][c] always[/c][00:10:37.600][c] have[/c] although it shouldn't. you always have although it shouldn't. you always have the[00:10:37.920][c] people[/c][00:10:38.079][c] calling[/c][00:10:38.399][c] for[/c][00:10:38.560][c] the[/c][00:10:38.720][c] super[/c][00:10:39.040][c] cycle[/c] the people calling for the super cycle the people calling for the super cycle and[00:10:40.079][c] it[/c][00:10:40.240][c] never[/c][00:10:40.480][c] happens.[/c][00:10:40.880][c] It's[/c][00:10:41.120][c] never[/c] and it never happens. It's never and it never happens. It's never happened.[00:10:42.399][c] Um,[/c][00:10:43.040][c] and[/c][00:10:43.839][c] so[/c][00:10:44.160][c] I[/c][00:10:44.480][c] think[/c][00:10:44.560][c] that,[/c][00:10:44.880][c] you[/c] happened. Um, and so I think that, you happened. Um, and so I think that, you know,[00:10:45.200][c] I[/c][00:10:45.360][c] think[/c][00:10:45.440][c] that[/c][00:10:45.680][c] it's[/c][00:10:45.920][c] important[/c][00:10:46.240][c] to[/c] know, I think that it's important to know, I think that it's important to sort[00:10:47.120][c] of[/c][00:10:47.279][c] recognize[/c][00:10:47.839][c] that[/c][00:10:48.320][c] in[/c][00:10:48.560][c] the[/c][00:10:48.720][c] bare[/c] sort of recognize that in the bare sort of recognize that in the bare market[00:10:49.279][c] years,[/c][00:10:49.600][c] right,[/c][00:10:49.839][c] in[/c][00:10:50.000][c] the[/c][00:10:50.240][c] first[/c][00:10:50.480][c] draw[/c] market years, right, in the first draw market years, right, in the first draw down[00:10:51.040][c] that[/c][00:10:51.279][c] occurs[/c][00:10:51.680][c] in[/c][00:10:52.000][c] Q4,[/c][00:10:53.040][c] hardly[/c][00:10:53.360][c] anyone[/c] down that occurs in Q4, hardly anyone down that occurs in Q4, hardly anyone believes[00:10:54.000][c] it,[/c][00:10:54.240][c] right?[/c][00:10:54.480][c] There's[/c][00:10:54.640][c] only[/c][00:10:54.800][c] a[/c][00:10:55.040][c] few[/c] believes it, right? There's only a few believes it, right? There's only a few people[00:10:55.360][c] that[/c][00:10:55.600][c] believe[/c][00:10:55.839][c] in[/c][00:10:56.000][c] it.[/c][00:10:56.480][c] And[/c][00:10:56.640][c] then[/c][00:10:56.880][c] as[/c] people that believe in it. And then as people that believe in it. And then as you[00:10:57.200][c] get[/c][00:10:57.360][c] into[/c][00:10:57.600][c] the[/c][00:10:57.760][c] early[/c][00:10:58.079][c] part[/c][00:10:58.240][c] of[/c][00:10:58.320][c] the[/c] you get into the early part of the you get into the early part of the midterm[00:10:58.880][c] year,[/c][00:10:59.440][c] then[/c][00:10:59.680][c] more[/c][00:11:00.000][c] people[/c][00:11:00.320][c] start[/c][00:11:00.560][c] to[/c] midterm year, then more people start to midterm year, then more people start to believe[00:11:01.040][c] it.[/c][00:11:01.279][c] And[/c][00:11:01.440][c] then[/c][00:11:01.600][c] the[/c][00:11:01.839][c] super[/c][00:11:02.160][c] cycle[/c] believe it. And then the super cycle believe it. And then the super cycle theories[00:11:03.440][c] start[/c][00:11:03.760][c] to[/c][00:11:03.920][c] get[/c][00:11:04.160][c] mocked.[/c][00:11:05.200][c] And[/c][00:11:05.360][c] then[/c] theories start to get mocked. And then theories start to get mocked. And then at[00:11:05.760][c] some[/c][00:11:06.000][c] point[/c][00:11:06.160][c] you[/c][00:11:06.399][c] get[/c][00:11:06.560][c] a[/c][00:11:06.720][c] counter[/c][00:11:07.040][c] trend[/c] at some point you get a counter trend at some point you get a counter trend rally[00:11:07.920][c] in[/c][00:11:08.160][c] the[/c][00:11:08.320][c] midterm[/c][00:11:08.800][c] year[/c][00:11:09.040][c] that[/c][00:11:09.279][c] then[/c] rally in the midterm year that then rally in the midterm year that then leads[00:11:09.680][c] to[/c][00:11:09.839][c] the[/c][00:11:10.079][c] resurgence[/c][00:11:10.720][c] of[/c][00:11:11.040][c] that[/c][00:11:11.360][c] super[/c] leads to the resurgence of that super leads to the resurgence of that super cycle[00:11:12.079][c] narrative[/c][00:11:12.480][c] where[/c][00:11:12.720][c] then[/c][00:11:12.880][c] the[/c][00:11:13.040][c] super[/c] cycle narrative where then the super cycle narrative where then the super cycle[00:11:13.600][c] narrative[/c][00:11:14.560][c] people[/c][00:11:14.800][c] are[/c][00:11:14.959][c] like[/c][00:11:15.120][c] see[/c][00:11:15.440][c] we[/c] cycle narrative people are like see we cycle narrative people are like see we told[00:11:15.760][c] you[/c][00:11:16.320][c] but[/c][00:11:16.480][c] then[/c][00:11:16.640][c] it[/c][00:11:16.720][c] it[/c][00:11:17.120][c] just[/c][00:11:17.279][c] resolves[/c][00:11:18.000][c] in[/c] told you but then it it just resolves in told you but then it it just resolves in a[00:11:18.399][c] in[/c][00:11:18.640][c] a[/c][00:11:18.720][c] lower[/c][00:11:18.959][c] high[/c][00:11:19.279][c] and[/c][00:11:19.519][c] we've[/c][00:11:19.839][c] already[/c][00:11:20.079][c] seen[/c] a in a lower high and we've already seen a in a lower high and we've already seen that[00:11:20.480][c] play[/c][00:11:20.640][c] out[/c][00:11:20.880][c] once.[/c][00:11:21.440][c] You[/c][00:11:21.680][c] can[/c][00:11:21.760][c] see[/c][00:11:21.920][c] we[/c][00:11:22.079][c] had[/c] that play out once. You can see we had that play out once. You can see we had this[00:11:22.399][c] counter[/c][00:11:22.640][c] trend[/c][00:11:22.880][c] rally[/c][00:11:23.120][c] back[/c][00:11:23.279][c] here[/c][00:11:23.760][c] back[/c] this counter trend rally back here back this counter trend rally back here back to[00:11:24.079][c] 97K.[/c][00:11:25.200][c] It[/c][00:11:25.360][c] led[/c][00:11:25.600][c] to[/c][00:11:25.680][c] the[/c][00:11:25.839][c] resurgence[/c][00:11:26.320][c] of[/c][00:11:26.399][c] a[/c] to 97K. It led to the resurgence of a to 97K. It led to the resurgence of a lot[00:11:26.640][c] of[/c][00:11:26.720][c] those[/c][00:11:26.880][c] super[/c][00:11:27.200][c] cycle[/c][00:11:27.519][c] narratives[/c][00:11:28.079][c] and[/c] lot of those super cycle narratives and lot of those super cycle narratives and then[00:11:28.399][c] they[/c][00:11:28.560][c] just[/c][00:11:28.720][c] fell[/c][00:11:28.959][c] flat[/c][00:11:29.200][c] on[/c][00:11:29.360][c] their[/c][00:11:29.519][c] face.[/c] then they just fell flat on their face. then they just fell flat on their face. And[00:11:30.560][c] there[/c][00:11:30.800][c] likely[/c][00:11:31.040][c] will[/c][00:11:31.200][c] be[/c][00:11:31.360][c] another[/c][00:11:31.519][c] counter[/c] And there likely will be another counter And there likely will be another counter trend[00:11:32.079][c] rally[/c][00:11:32.320][c] at[/c][00:11:32.480][c] some[/c][00:11:32.640][c] point.[/c][00:11:32.800][c] I[/c][00:11:33.040][c] would[/c] trend rally at some point. I would trend rally at some point. I would expect[00:11:33.519][c] one[/c][00:11:33.760][c] more[/c][00:11:34.000][c] good[/c][00:11:34.320][c] counter[/c][00:11:34.640][c] trend[/c][00:11:34.959][c] rally[/c] expect one more good counter trend rally expect one more good counter trend rally uh[00:11:36.000][c] before[/c][00:11:36.640][c] the[/c][00:11:36.880][c] actual[/c][00:11:37.360][c] low[/c][00:11:37.760][c] in[/c][00:11:38.079][c] the[/c][00:11:38.240][c] market[/c] uh before the actual low in the market uh before the actual low in the market occurs.[00:11:39.519][c] Um[/c][00:11:40.720][c] and[/c][00:11:40.880][c] there's[/c][00:11:41.120][c] just[/c][00:11:41.279][c] a[/c][00:11:41.519][c] way[/c][00:11:41.680][c] for[/c] occurs. Um and there's just a way for occurs. Um and there's just a way for for[00:11:42.399][c] people[/c][00:11:42.560][c] to[/c][00:11:42.720][c] get[/c][00:11:42.880][c] trapped.[/c][00:11:43.279][c] And[/c][00:11:43.360][c] then[/c][00:11:43.519][c] what[/c] for people to get trapped. And then what for people to get trapped. And then what usually[00:11:44.079][c] happens[/c][00:11:45.040][c] is[/c][00:11:45.839][c] those[/c][00:11:46.240][c] people[/c][00:11:46.720][c] then[/c] usually happens is those people then usually happens is those people then turn[00:11:47.440][c] bearish[/c][00:11:48.720][c] right[/c][00:11:48.959][c] as[/c][00:11:49.200][c] the[/c][00:11:49.440][c] market[/c][00:11:49.680][c] is[/c] turn bearish right as the market is turn bearish right as the market is bottoming[00:11:50.320][c] and[/c][00:11:50.480][c] then[/c][00:11:50.640][c] they[/c][00:11:50.800][c] have[/c][00:11:50.880][c] a[/c][00:11:51.120][c] hard[/c] bottoming and then they have a hard bottoming and then they have a hard time,[00:11:52.160][c] you[/c][00:11:52.320][c] know,[/c][00:11:52.880][c] being[/c][00:11:53.120][c] part[/c][00:11:53.279][c] of[/c][00:11:53.360][c] the[/c][00:11:53.519][c] next[/c] time, you know, being part of the next time, you know, being part of the next bull[00:11:54.000][c] market[/c][00:11:54.320][c] because[/c][00:11:54.560][c] they[/c][00:11:54.880][c] were[/c][00:11:55.040][c] they[/c][00:11:55.360][c] were[/c] bull market because they were they were bull market because they were they were bullish[00:11:56.160][c] throughout[/c][00:11:56.640][c] all[/c][00:11:56.800][c] the[/c][00:11:56.959][c] bare[/c][00:11:57.279][c] market.[/c] bullish throughout all the bare market. bullish throughout all the bare market. So[00:11:57.920][c] by[/c][00:11:58.079][c] the[/c][00:11:58.240][c] time[/c][00:11:58.320][c] they[/c][00:11:58.560][c] finally[/c][00:11:58.800][c] get[/c][00:11:58.959][c] the[/c] So by the time they finally get the So by the time they finally get the memo,[00:12:00.079][c] they're[/c][00:12:00.320][c] the[/c][00:12:00.560][c] last[/c][00:12:00.720][c] people[/c][00:12:00.880][c] to[/c] memo, they're the last people to memo, they're the last people to capitulate,[00:12:01.760][c] you[/c][00:12:01.920][c] know,[/c][00:12:02.000][c] and[/c][00:12:02.160][c] then[/c][00:12:02.320][c] we[/c][00:12:02.560][c] start[/c] capitulate, you know, and then we start capitulate, you know, and then we start we[00:12:03.040][c] start[/c][00:12:03.200][c] a[/c][00:12:03.360][c] fresh.[/c] we start a fresh. we start a fresh. >> Yeah.[00:12:04.560][c] And[/c][00:12:04.720][c] and[/c][00:12:04.959][c] for[/c][00:12:05.120][c] you,[/c][00:12:05.279][c] Ben,[/c][00:12:05.600][c] personally,[/c] >> Yeah. And and for you, Ben, personally, >> Yeah. And and for you, Ben, personally, what[00:12:06.320][c] narratives[/c][00:12:06.800][c] or[/c][00:12:07.279][c] macro[/c][00:12:07.680][c] forces,[/c] what narratives or macro forces, what narratives or macro forces, positive[00:12:08.720][c] or[/c][00:12:09.040][c] negative,[/c][00:12:09.519][c] do[/c][00:12:09.680][c] you[/c][00:12:09.839][c] think[/c][00:12:09.920][c] will[/c] positive or negative, do you think will positive or negative, do you think will have[00:12:10.320][c] the[/c][00:12:10.480][c] biggest[/c][00:12:10.800][c] impact[/c][00:12:11.120][c] on[/c][00:12:11.440][c] Bitcoin's[/c] have the biggest impact on Bitcoin's have the biggest impact on Bitcoin's trajectory[00:12:12.880][c] through[/c][00:12:13.279][c] 2026?[/c] trajectory through 2026? trajectory through 2026? >> I[00:12:15.120][c] mean,[/c][00:12:15.200][c] I[/c][00:12:15.360][c] think[/c][00:12:15.440][c] there's[/c][00:12:15.680][c] just[/c][00:12:15.920][c] macro[/c] >> I mean, I think there's just macro >> I mean, I think there's just macro headwinds.[00:12:16.800][c] I[/c][00:12:16.959][c] mean,[/c][00:12:17.120][c] interest[/c][00:12:17.440][c] rates[/c][00:12:17.839][c] remain[/c] headwinds. I mean, interest rates remain headwinds. I mean, interest rates remain elevated.[00:12:18.959][c] You[/c][00:12:19.120][c] could[/c][00:12:19.279][c] argue[/c][00:12:19.600][c] that[/c][00:12:20.160][c] we're[/c] elevated. You could argue that we're elevated. You could argue that we're still[00:12:20.639][c] in[/c][00:12:20.959][c] sufficiently[/c][00:12:21.519][c] restrictive[/c] still in sufficiently restrictive still in sufficiently restrictive territory,[00:12:22.560][c] that[/c][00:12:22.800][c] the[/c][00:12:23.360][c] Fed[/c][00:12:23.600][c] funds[/c][00:12:24.000][c] rate[/c][00:12:24.160][c] is[/c] territory, that the Fed funds rate is territory, that the Fed funds rate is still[00:12:24.639][c] above[/c][00:12:24.959][c] the[/c][00:12:25.120][c] 2-year[/c][00:12:25.519][c] yield,[/c][00:12:25.839][c] which[/c][00:12:26.079][c] I[/c] still above the 2-year yield, which I still above the 2-year yield, which I essentially[00:12:26.880][c] am[/c][00:12:26.959][c] approximating[/c][00:12:27.600][c] as[/c][00:12:27.760][c] the[/c] essentially am approximating as the essentially am approximating as the neutral[00:12:28.240][c] rate.[/c][00:12:28.959][c] Um,[/c][00:12:29.279][c] you[/c][00:12:29.519][c] could[/c][00:12:29.680][c] look[/c][00:12:29.839][c] at[/c][00:12:30.079][c] at,[/c] neutral rate. Um, you could look at at, neutral rate. Um, you could look at at, you[00:12:31.040][c] know,[/c][00:12:31.120][c] the[/c][00:12:31.279][c] the[/c][00:12:31.680][c] balance[/c][00:12:31.920][c] sheet[/c][00:12:32.240][c] of[/c] you know, the the balance sheet of you know, the the balance sheet of central[00:12:32.800][c] banks[/c][00:12:33.120][c] worldwide[/c][00:12:33.760][c] and[/c][00:12:34.079][c] see[/c][00:12:34.240][c] how[/c][00:12:34.639][c] it[/c] central banks worldwide and see how it central banks worldwide and see how it it[00:12:35.200][c] is[/c][00:12:35.360][c] slowly[/c][00:12:35.839][c] trending[/c][00:12:36.160][c] out,[/c][00:12:36.320][c] but[/c][00:12:36.560][c] it's[/c][00:12:36.800][c] not[/c] it is slowly trending out, but it's not it is slowly trending out, but it's not trending[00:12:37.200][c] up[/c][00:12:37.440][c] fast[/c][00:12:37.760][c] enough[/c][00:12:38.399][c] to[/c][00:12:38.720][c] justify[/c] trending up fast enough to justify trending up fast enough to justify durable[00:12:39.920][c] bull[/c][00:12:40.240][c] market[/c][00:12:40.480][c] and[/c][00:12:40.720][c] risky[/c][00:12:41.040][c] assets[/c] durable bull market and risky assets durable bull market and risky assets like[00:12:41.600][c] crypto.[/c][00:12:42.399][c] I[/c][00:12:42.720][c] would[/c][00:12:42.880][c] expect[/c][00:12:43.120][c] to[/c][00:12:43.360][c] see[/c][00:12:43.519][c] the[/c] like crypto. I would expect to see the like crypto. I would expect to see the continued[00:12:44.240][c] bleed[/c][00:12:44.720][c] of[/c][00:12:45.040][c] crypto[/c][00:12:45.680][c] against[/c][00:12:46.160][c] most[/c] continued bleed of crypto against most continued bleed of crypto against most other[00:12:46.800][c] asset[/c][00:12:47.200][c] classes.[/c][00:12:48.000][c] Historically,[/c][00:12:48.959][c] the[/c] other asset classes. Historically, the other asset classes. Historically, the crypto[00:12:49.600][c] asset[/c][00:12:49.920][c] class,[/c][00:12:50.160][c] including[/c][00:12:50.480][c] Bitcoin,[/c] crypto asset class, including Bitcoin, crypto asset class, including Bitcoin, does[00:12:51.920][c] bleed[/c][00:12:52.320][c] to[/c][00:12:53.040][c] the[/c][00:12:53.279][c] stock[/c][00:12:53.600][c] market[/c][00:12:53.920][c] in[/c] does bleed to the stock market in does bleed to the stock market in midterm[00:12:54.560][c] years.[/c][00:12:54.880][c] It[/c][00:12:55.040][c] bleeds[/c][00:12:55.360][c] to[/c][00:12:55.600][c] gold[/c][00:12:55.839][c] in[/c] midterm years. It bleeds to gold in midterm years. It bleeds to gold in midterm[00:12:56.399][c] years.[/c][00:12:56.720][c] It[/c][00:12:56.880][c] bleeds[/c][00:12:57.200][c] to[/c][00:12:57.360][c] energy[/c] midterm years. It bleeds to energy midterm years. It bleeds to energy stocks[00:12:57.920][c] in[/c][00:12:58.079][c] midterm[/c][00:12:58.480][c] years.[/c][00:12:59.040][c] I[/c][00:12:59.279][c] would[/c][00:12:59.440][c] expect[/c] stocks in midterm years. I would expect stocks in midterm years. I would expect that[00:13:00.000][c] to[/c][00:13:00.320][c] continue.[/c][00:13:01.040][c] And[/c][00:13:01.279][c] so,[/c][00:13:01.440][c] the[/c][00:13:01.680][c] narrative,[/c] that to continue. And so, the narrative, that to continue. And so, the narrative, you[00:13:02.959][c] know,[/c][00:13:03.040][c] is[/c][00:13:03.279][c] just[/c][00:13:03.440][c] going[/c][00:13:03.519][c] to[/c][00:13:03.680][c] be[/c][00:13:03.760][c] that[/c][00:13:03.920][c] that[/c] you know, is just going to be that that you know, is just going to be that that crypto[00:13:04.639][c] is[/c][00:13:04.880][c] dead[/c][00:13:05.120][c] by[/c][00:13:05.279][c] the[/c][00:13:05.440][c] end[/c][00:13:05.519][c] of[/c][00:13:05.600][c] the[/c][00:13:05.760][c] year,[/c] crypto is dead by the end of the year, crypto is dead by the end of the year, but[00:13:06.399][c] then[/c][00:13:06.560][c] it[/c][00:13:06.720][c] it[/c][00:13:07.040][c] might[/c][00:13:07.440][c] it[/c][00:13:07.680][c] should[/c][00:13:08.079][c] hopefully[/c] but then it it might it should hopefully but then it it might it should hopefully start[00:13:08.560][c] to[/c][00:13:08.720][c] show[/c][00:13:08.959][c] some[/c][00:13:09.120][c] strength[/c][00:13:10.000][c] going[/c][00:13:10.320][c] into[/c] start to show some strength going into start to show some strength going into early[00:13:11.279][c] 2027,[/c] early 2027, early 2027, um,[00:13:13.360][c] late[/c][00:13:13.760][c] 2026[/c][00:13:14.560][c] time[/c][00:13:14.800][c] frame.[/c][00:13:15.360][c] So,[/c][00:13:15.680][c] but[/c][00:13:16.000][c] yeah,[/c] um, late 2026 time frame. So, but yeah, um, late 2026 time frame. So, but yeah, the[00:13:16.320][c] the[/c][00:13:16.399][c] the[/c][00:13:16.880][c] macro[/c][00:13:17.360][c] forces[/c][00:13:17.920][c] I[/c][00:13:18.160][c] think[/c][00:13:18.240][c] are[/c] the the the macro forces I think are the the the macro forces I think are just[00:13:18.880][c] interest[/c][00:13:19.279][c] rates[/c][00:13:19.519][c] are[/c][00:13:19.680][c] are[/c][00:13:20.079][c] high[/c][00:13:21.040][c] and[/c] just interest rates are are high and just interest rates are are high and there's[00:13:21.920][c] not[/c][00:13:22.079][c] really[/c][00:13:22.240][c] a[/c][00:13:22.399][c] great[/c][00:13:22.560][c] reason[/c][00:13:22.800][c] in[/c][00:13:22.959][c] the[/c] there's not really a great reason in the there's not really a great reason in the short[00:13:23.200][c] term[/c][00:13:23.440][c] for[/c][00:13:23.519][c] them[/c][00:13:23.680][c] to[/c][00:13:23.839][c] lower[/c][00:13:24.079][c] those[/c][00:13:24.240][c] those[/c] short term for them to lower those those short term for them to lower those those rates[00:13:24.880][c] and[/c][00:13:25.360][c] maybe[/c][00:13:25.600][c] that'll[/c][00:13:26.000][c] change[/c][00:13:26.160][c] when[/c] rates and maybe that'll change when rates and maybe that'll change when Jerome[00:13:26.720][c] Pal[/c][00:13:27.040][c] is[/c][00:13:27.600][c] is[/c][00:13:27.920][c] replaced[/c][00:13:28.720][c] as[/c][00:13:28.959][c] the[/c][00:13:29.120][c] chair[/c] Jerome Pal is is replaced as the chair Jerome Pal is is replaced as the chair of[00:13:29.360][c] the[/c][00:13:29.519][c] Federal[/c][00:13:29.760][c] Reserve,[/c][00:13:30.079][c] but[/c][00:13:30.240][c] even[/c][00:13:30.399][c] then[/c] of the Federal Reserve, but even then of the Federal Reserve, but even then they're[00:13:30.800][c] probably[/c][00:13:31.040][c] only[/c][00:13:31.200][c] going[/c][00:13:31.279][c] to[/c][00:13:31.360][c] be[/c][00:13:31.440][c] able[/c] they're probably only going to be able they're probably only going to be able to[00:13:31.839][c] lower[/c][00:13:32.160][c] them[/c][00:13:32.560][c] only[/c][00:13:32.880][c] marginally[/c][00:13:33.360][c] after[/c] to lower them only marginally after to lower them only marginally after that. that. that. >> So,[00:13:35.440][c] you[/c][00:13:35.680][c] brought[/c][00:13:35.839][c] up[/c][00:13:35.920][c] the[/c][00:13:36.160][c] Fed[/c][00:13:36.639][c] talking[/c][00:13:36.880][c] about[/c] >> So, you brought up the Fed talking about >> So, you brought up the Fed talking about interest[00:13:37.440][c] rates.[/c][00:13:38.240][c] Here's[/c][00:13:38.480][c] something[/c][00:13:38.720][c] I[/c][00:13:38.959][c] think[/c] interest rates. Here's something I think interest rates. Here's something I think you[00:13:39.360][c] know[/c][00:13:39.440][c] a[/c][00:13:39.680][c] lot[/c][00:13:39.760][c] of[/c][00:13:39.920][c] people[/c][00:13:40.399][c] aren't[/c][00:13:40.800][c] really[/c] you know a lot of people aren't really you know a lot of people aren't really thinking[00:13:41.519][c] through[/c][00:13:42.320][c] um[/c][00:13:42.480][c] as[/c][00:13:42.720][c] it[/c][00:13:42.880][c] relates[/c][00:13:43.120][c] to[/c][00:13:43.279][c] the[/c] thinking through um as it relates to the thinking through um as it relates to the Fed.[00:13:43.839][c] So,[/c][00:13:44.560][c] do[/c][00:13:44.720][c] you[/c][00:13:44.800][c] think[/c][00:13:44.959][c] the[/c][00:13:45.200][c] Fed[/c][00:13:45.519][c] is[/c][00:13:45.760][c] going[/c] Fed. So, do you think the Fed is going Fed. So, do you think the Fed is going to[00:13:46.079][c] need[/c][00:13:46.240][c] to[/c][00:13:46.480][c] actually[/c][00:13:47.040][c] bring[/c][00:13:47.360][c] down[/c][00:13:47.600][c] rates[/c] to need to actually bring down rates to need to actually bring down rates significantly[00:13:49.040][c] before[/c][00:13:49.600][c] we[/c][00:13:50.000][c] can[/c][00:13:50.240][c] actually[/c][00:13:50.560][c] get[/c] significantly before we can actually get significantly before we can actually get to[00:13:50.959][c] another[/c][00:13:51.360][c] real[/c][00:13:51.839][c] crypto[/c][00:13:52.320][c] bull[/c][00:13:52.639][c] market?[/c][00:13:53.200][c] And[/c] to another real crypto bull market? And to another real crypto bull market? And if[00:13:53.600][c] so,[/c][00:13:54.240][c] um[/c][00:13:54.480][c] do[/c][00:13:54.639][c] you[/c][00:13:54.800][c] think[/c][00:13:54.880][c] that's[/c][00:13:55.680][c] actually[/c] if so, um do you think that's actually if so, um do you think that's actually really[00:13:56.240][c] a[/c][00:13:56.480][c] trap?[/c][00:13:56.800][c] Because,[/c][00:13:57.199][c] you[/c][00:13:57.279][c] know,[/c][00:13:57.440][c] for[/c] really a trap? Because, you know, for really a trap? Because, you know, for them[00:13:58.000][c] to[/c][00:13:58.160][c] actually[/c][00:13:58.399][c] have[/c][00:13:58.560][c] to[/c][00:13:58.720][c] cut[/c][00:13:58.959][c] rates[/c] them to actually have to cut rates them to actually have to cut rates aggressively,[00:14:00.560][c] something[/c][00:14:00.880][c] has[/c][00:14:01.199][c] probably[/c] aggressively, something has probably aggressively, something has probably broken[00:14:02.000][c] in[/c][00:14:02.240][c] the[/c][00:14:02.399][c] economy.[/c][00:14:02.959][c] And[/c][00:14:03.120][c] if[/c][00:14:03.360][c] that[/c] broken in the economy. And if that broken in the economy. And if that happens,[00:14:04.320][c] wouldn't[/c][00:14:04.639][c] that[/c][00:14:04.880][c] actually[/c][00:14:05.199][c] hurt[/c] happens, wouldn't that actually hurt happens, wouldn't that actually hurt risk[00:14:05.839][c] assets[/c][00:14:06.320][c] like[/c][00:14:06.639][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:14:07.120][c] and[/c][00:14:07.440][c] other[/c] risk assets like Bitcoin and other risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies[00:14:08.399][c] in[/c][00:14:08.639][c] the[/c][00:14:08.800][c] short[/c][00:14:08.880][c] term,[/c][00:14:09.600][c] even[/c] cryptocurrencies in the short term, even cryptocurrencies in the short term, even if[00:14:10.160][c] lower[/c][00:14:10.480][c] rates[/c][00:14:10.880][c] are[/c][00:14:11.199][c] good[/c][00:14:11.360][c] for[/c][00:14:11.600][c] those[/c][00:14:11.839][c] assets[/c] if lower rates are good for those assets if lower rates are good for those assets over[00:14:12.800][c] the[/c][00:14:12.959][c] long?[/c] over the long? over the long? >> Yeah,[00:14:14.320][c] I[/c][00:14:14.560][c] mean,[/c][00:14:14.639][c] and[/c][00:14:14.880][c] that's[/c][00:14:15.040][c] a[/c][00:14:15.199][c] great[/c] >> Yeah, I mean, and that's a great >> Yeah, I mean, and that's a great question[00:14:15.760][c] because[/c][00:14:16.000][c] it[/c][00:14:16.160][c] it[/c][00:14:16.560][c] shows[/c][00:14:17.440][c] why[/c][00:14:17.839][c] crypto[/c] question because it it shows why crypto question because it it shows why crypto just[00:14:18.560][c] isn't[/c][00:14:18.880][c] a[/c][00:14:19.120][c] it[/c][00:14:19.360][c] hasn't[/c][00:14:19.600][c] been[/c][00:14:19.680][c] a[/c][00:14:19.839][c] good[/c] just isn't a it hasn't been a good just isn't a it hasn't been a good investment[00:14:20.399][c] for[/c][00:14:20.639][c] a[/c][00:14:20.800][c] while.[/c][00:14:21.199][c] You[/c][00:14:21.440][c] know,[/c][00:14:21.920][c] it's[/c] investment for a while. You know, it's investment for a while. You know, it's because[00:14:22.560][c] in[/c][00:14:22.880][c] order[/c][00:14:23.120][c] to[/c][00:14:23.440][c] get[/c][00:14:24.320][c] to[/c][00:14:25.279][c] because[/c][00:14:25.600][c] we're[/c] because in order to get to because we're because in order to get to because we're facing[00:14:26.079][c] these[/c][00:14:26.240][c] macro[/c][00:14:26.560][c] headwinds[/c][00:14:27.040][c] in[/c][00:14:27.199][c] order[/c] facing these macro headwinds in order facing these macro headwinds in order for[00:14:27.519][c] us[/c][00:14:27.600][c] to[/c][00:14:27.760][c] get[/c][00:14:27.920][c] to[/c][00:14:28.079][c] more[/c][00:14:28.320][c] favorable[/c][00:14:28.720][c] monetary[/c] for us to get to more favorable monetary for us to get to more favorable monetary policy,[00:14:29.600][c] we[/c][00:14:29.839][c] have[/c][00:14:29.920][c] to[/c][00:14:30.000][c] go[/c][00:14:30.160][c] back[/c][00:14:30.320][c] to[/c][00:14:31.199][c] we[/c][00:14:31.440][c] have[/c][00:14:31.600][c] to[/c] policy, we have to go back to we have to policy, we have to go back to we have to have[00:14:31.920][c] a[/c][00:14:32.240][c] crisis[/c][00:14:32.800][c] that[/c][00:14:33.120][c] then[/c][00:14:33.360][c] leads[/c][00:14:33.600][c] to[/c][00:14:33.760][c] the[/c] have a crisis that then leads to the have a crisis that then leads to the looser[00:14:34.240][c] monetary[/c][00:14:34.639][c] policy.[/c][00:14:35.279][c] Now,[/c][00:14:35.600][c] you[/c][00:14:35.839][c] don't[/c] looser monetary policy. Now, you don't looser monetary policy. Now, you don't have[00:14:36.160][c] to[/c][00:14:36.320][c] have[/c][00:14:36.480][c] a[/c][00:14:36.639][c] crisis[/c][00:14:37.440][c] to[/c][00:14:37.680][c] have[/c][00:14:37.839][c] another[/c] have to have a crisis to have another have to have a crisis to have another bull[00:14:38.399][c] market[/c][00:14:38.560][c] in[/c][00:14:38.800][c] crypto.[/c][00:14:39.680][c] You[/c][00:14:39.920][c] could[/c][00:14:40.079][c] have[/c] bull market in crypto. You could have bull market in crypto. You could have another[00:14:40.560][c] bull[/c][00:14:40.880][c] market[/c][00:14:41.120][c] in[/c][00:14:41.360][c] the[/c][00:14:41.519][c] future[/c][00:14:41.839][c] where[/c] another bull market in the future where another bull market in the future where Bitcoin[00:14:42.639][c] is[/c][00:14:42.959][c] essentially[/c][00:14:43.279][c] one[/c][00:14:43.440][c] of[/c][00:14:43.519][c] the[/c][00:14:43.680][c] only[/c] Bitcoin is essentially one of the only Bitcoin is essentially one of the only participants[00:14:44.399][c] of[/c][00:14:44.560][c] the[/c][00:14:44.720][c] bull[/c][00:14:44.959][c] market.[/c][00:14:45.279][c] Even[/c] participants of the bull market. Even participants of the bull market. Even this[00:14:45.760][c] past[/c][00:14:46.000][c] cycle,[/c][00:14:46.720][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:14:47.199][c] went[/c][00:14:47.360][c] up[/c][00:14:47.839][c] and[/c] this past cycle, Bitcoin went up and this past cycle, Bitcoin went up and Bitcoin[00:14:48.480][c] dominance[/c][00:14:48.880][c] went[/c][00:14:49.040][c] up[/c][00:14:49.199][c] and[/c][00:14:49.360][c] the[/c][00:14:49.600][c] rest[/c] Bitcoin dominance went up and the rest Bitcoin dominance went up and the rest of[00:14:49.760][c] the[/c][00:14:50.000][c] market[/c][00:14:50.320][c] didn't[/c][00:14:50.560][c] really[/c][00:14:50.800][c] join[/c][00:14:51.040][c] in[/c][00:14:51.279][c] in[/c] of the market didn't really join in in of the market didn't really join in in the[00:14:51.519][c] way[/c][00:14:51.600][c] that[/c][00:14:51.760][c] it[/c][00:14:52.000][c] normally[/c][00:14:52.320][c] does,[/c][00:14:52.720][c] at[/c][00:14:52.720][c] least[/c] the way that it normally does, at least the way that it normally does, at least not[00:14:53.199][c] the[/c][00:14:53.360][c] way[/c][00:14:53.519][c] it[/c][00:14:53.680][c] did[/c][00:14:53.839][c] in[/c][00:14:54.000][c] 2020[/c][00:14:54.480][c] and[/c][00:14:54.639][c] 2021[/c][00:14:55.440][c] when[/c] not the way it did in 2020 and 2021 when not the way it did in 2020 and 2021 when we[00:14:55.839][c] were[/c][00:14:55.920][c] in[/c][00:14:56.079][c] much[/c][00:14:56.320][c] looser[/c][00:14:56.639][c] monetary[/c][00:14:57.040][c] policy.[/c] we were in much looser monetary policy. we were in much looser monetary policy. But[00:14:57.760][c] in[/c][00:14:57.920][c] 2020[/c][00:14:58.320][c] and[/c][00:14:58.480][c] 2021,[/c][00:14:59.360][c] we[/c][00:14:59.519][c] had[/c][00:14:59.680][c] the[/c][00:14:59.839][c] looser[/c] But in 2020 and 2021, we had the looser But in 2020 and 2021, we had the looser monetary[00:15:00.560][c] policy[/c][00:15:01.120][c] after[/c][00:15:01.440][c] the[/c][00:15:01.680][c] crisis[/c][00:15:02.079][c] that[/c] monetary policy after the crisis that monetary policy after the crisis that occurred[00:15:02.720][c] in[/c][00:15:03.040][c] 2020[/c][00:15:03.839][c] that[/c][00:15:04.160][c] then[/c][00:15:04.320][c] led[/c][00:15:04.560][c] to[/c][00:15:04.639][c] the[/c] occurred in 2020 that then led to the occurred in 2020 that then led to the money[00:15:05.040][c] printing.[/c][00:15:05.519][c] So[/c][00:15:05.839][c] you[/c][00:15:06.079][c] could[/c][00:15:06.240][c] argue[/c][00:15:07.040][c] that[/c] money printing. So you could argue that money printing. So you could argue that if[00:15:07.760][c] you[/c][00:15:08.079][c] you[/c][00:15:08.240][c] know[/c][00:15:08.320][c] if[/c][00:15:08.560][c] you[/c][00:15:09.279][c] want[/c][00:15:09.920][c] riskier[/c] if you you know if you want riskier if you you know if you want riskier assets[00:15:10.800][c] to[/c][00:15:10.959][c] do[/c][00:15:11.120][c] well,[/c][00:15:12.399][c] you[/c][00:15:12.639][c] first[/c][00:15:13.519][c] need[/c][00:15:13.920][c] a[/c][00:15:14.320][c] a[/c] assets to do well, you first need a a assets to do well, you first need a a reason[00:15:15.120][c] for[/c][00:15:15.360][c] loser[/c][00:15:15.760][c] monetary[/c][00:15:16.160][c] policy.[/c][00:15:16.639][c] So[/c][00:15:16.959][c] in[/c] reason for loser monetary policy. So in reason for loser monetary policy. So in the[00:15:17.279][c] meantime,[/c][00:15:18.079][c] there's[/c][00:15:18.320][c] not[/c][00:15:18.480][c] really[/c][00:15:18.720][c] a[/c][00:15:18.959][c] great[/c] the meantime, there's not really a great the meantime, there's not really a great reason[00:15:19.360][c] to[/c][00:15:19.600][c] hold[/c][00:15:19.920][c] very[/c][00:15:20.240][c] risky[/c][00:15:20.639][c] assets[/c][00:15:21.839][c] because[/c] reason to hold very risky assets because reason to hold very risky assets because they[00:15:22.880][c] almost[/c][00:15:23.199][c] like[/c][00:15:23.440][c] require[/c][00:15:24.000][c] a[/c][00:15:24.240][c] a[/c][00:15:24.639][c] continued[/c] they almost like require a a continued they almost like require a a continued bare[00:15:25.440][c] market[/c][00:15:25.760][c] crash[/c][00:15:26.399][c] to[/c][00:15:26.639][c] justify[/c][00:15:27.040][c] the[/c][00:15:27.199][c] policy[/c] bare market crash to justify the policy bare market crash to justify the policy that[00:15:27.680][c] wouldn't[/c][00:15:28.079][c] support[/c][00:15:28.320][c] them,[/c][00:15:28.959][c] you[/c][00:15:29.120][c] know.[/c][00:15:29.680][c] So[/c] that wouldn't support them, you know. So that wouldn't support them, you know. So if[00:15:30.720][c] if[/c][00:15:31.120][c] by[/c][00:15:31.360][c] the[/c][00:15:31.519][c] end[/c][00:15:31.600][c] of[/c][00:15:31.680][c] the[/c][00:15:31.920][c] year[/c][00:15:32.480][c] there[/c][00:15:32.720][c] still[/c] if if by the end of the year there still if if by the end of the year there still isn't[00:15:33.279][c] a[/c][00:15:33.440][c] crisis,[/c][00:15:34.079][c] then[/c][00:15:34.320][c] you[/c][00:15:34.480][c] could[/c][00:15:34.639][c] still[/c][00:15:34.880][c] see[/c] isn't a crisis, then you could still see isn't a crisis, then you could still see crypto[00:15:35.600][c] start,[/c][00:15:35.920][c] you[/c][00:15:36.000][c] know,[/c][00:15:36.160][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:15:36.639][c] start[/c][00:15:36.800][c] a[/c] crypto start, you know, Bitcoin start a crypto start, you know, Bitcoin start a new[00:15:37.120][c] bull[/c][00:15:37.360][c] market,[/c][00:15:38.000][c] but[/c][00:15:38.399][c] it[/c][00:15:38.639][c] might[/c][00:15:38.800][c] be[/c] new bull market, but it might be new bull market, but it might be characterized[00:15:39.600][c] by[/c][00:15:40.320][c] relatively[/c][00:15:40.959][c] narrow[/c] characterized by relatively narrow characterized by relatively narrow leadership[00:15:41.839][c] and[/c][00:15:42.160][c] not[/c][00:15:42.880][c] not,[/c][00:15:43.680][c] you[/c][00:15:43.839][c] know,[/c][00:15:44.079][c] join[/c] leadership and not not, you know, join leadership and not not, you know, join joined[00:15:44.880][c] in[/c][00:15:45.120][c] by[/c][00:15:45.279][c] a[/c][00:15:45.440][c] lot[/c][00:15:45.519][c] of[/c][00:15:45.600][c] the[/c][00:15:45.760][c] rest[/c][00:15:45.920][c] of[/c][00:15:46.000][c] the[/c] joined in by a lot of the rest of the joined in by a lot of the rest of the market[00:15:46.480][c] just[/c][00:15:46.639][c] like[/c][00:15:46.800][c] this[/c][00:15:47.040][c] past[/c][00:15:47.279][c] cycle.[/c] market just like this past cycle. market just like this past cycle. >> All[00:15:48.560][c] right,[/c][00:15:49.120][c] I[/c][00:15:49.360][c] want[/c][00:15:49.519][c] to[/c][00:15:49.680][c] take[/c][00:15:49.839][c] a[/c][00:15:50.079][c] sharp[/c][00:15:50.399][c] left[/c] >> All right, I want to take a sharp left >> All right, I want to take a sharp left turn[00:15:50.880][c] for[/c][00:15:51.120][c] a[/c][00:15:51.279][c] second[/c][00:15:51.600][c] before[/c][00:15:51.839][c] we[/c][00:15:52.079][c] get[/c][00:15:52.240][c] into[/c] turn for a second before we get into turn for a second before we get into what[00:15:52.800][c] I[/c][00:15:52.959][c] think[/c][00:15:53.040][c] is[/c][00:15:53.279][c] the[/c][00:15:53.519][c] most[/c][00:15:53.920][c] interesting[/c] what I think is the most interesting what I think is the most interesting cycle[00:15:54.959][c] question[/c][00:15:55.279][c] that[/c][00:15:55.600][c] no[/c][00:15:55.839][c] one's[/c][00:15:56.079][c] talking[/c] cycle question that no one's talking cycle question that no one's talking about.[00:15:57.040][c] So[/c][00:15:57.360][c] before[/c][00:15:57.600][c] we[/c][00:15:57.759][c] get[/c][00:15:57.839][c] there,[/c][00:15:58.160][c] you've[/c] about. So before we get there, you've about. So before we get there, you've said[00:15:58.560][c] that[/c][00:15:58.800][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:15:59.279][c] sometimes[/c][00:15:59.839][c] makes[/c][00:16:00.079][c] you[/c] said that Bitcoin sometimes makes you said that Bitcoin sometimes makes you feel[00:16:00.560][c] like[/c][00:16:00.959][c] we're[/c][00:16:01.279][c] living[/c][00:16:01.519][c] in[/c][00:16:01.759][c] a[/c][00:16:01.920][c] simulation.[/c] feel like we're living in a simulation. feel like we're living in a simulation. What[00:16:03.040][c] do[/c][00:16:03.199][c] you[/c][00:16:03.279][c] mean[/c][00:16:03.440][c] by[/c][00:16:03.600][c] that?[/c] What do you mean by that? What do you mean by that? >> It's[00:16:05.199][c] just[/c][00:16:05.440][c] like[/c][00:16:06.000][c] it's[/c][00:16:06.240][c] just[/c][00:16:06.480][c] crazy[/c][00:16:06.720][c] to[/c][00:16:06.959][c] me[/c][00:16:07.120][c] how[/c] >> It's just like it's just crazy to me how >> It's just like it's just crazy to me how how[00:16:07.839][c] predictable[/c][00:16:08.399][c] it[/c][00:16:08.560][c] is,[/c][00:16:08.959][c] you[/c][00:16:09.040][c] know,[/c][00:16:09.279][c] like[/c] how predictable it is, you know, like how predictable it is, you know, like and[00:16:10.399][c] not[/c][00:16:10.720][c] daily[/c][00:16:11.040][c] price[/c][00:16:11.279][c] action,[/c][00:16:11.600][c] right?[/c][00:16:11.839][c] daily[/c] and not daily price action, right? daily and not daily price action, right? daily price[00:16:12.399][c] action[/c][00:16:12.720][c] is[/c][00:16:12.959][c] impossible[/c][00:16:13.440][c] to[/c][00:16:13.600][c] predict.[/c] price action is impossible to predict. price action is impossible to predict. You[00:16:14.320][c] know,[/c][00:16:14.399][c] it's[/c][00:16:14.880][c] it's[/c][00:16:15.279][c] like[/c][00:16:15.680][c] um[/c][00:16:15.759][c] a[/c][00:16:16.079][c] random[/c] You know, it's it's like um a random You know, it's it's like um a random walk,[00:16:16.800][c] geometric[/c][00:16:17.279][c] brownie[/c][00:16:17.600][c] in[/c][00:16:17.759][c] motion[/c][00:16:18.000][c] for[/c] walk, geometric brownie in motion for walk, geometric brownie in motion for any[00:16:18.320][c] of[/c][00:16:18.399][c] the[/c][00:16:18.639][c] physicists[/c][00:16:19.120][c] in[/c][00:16:19.360][c] the[/c][00:16:19.600][c] uh[/c][00:16:19.759][c] in[/c][00:16:19.920][c] the[/c] any of the physicists in the uh in the any of the physicists in the uh in the in[00:16:20.480][c] the[/c][00:16:20.720][c] audience[/c][00:16:21.600][c] where[/c][00:16:21.920][c] you[/c][00:16:22.079][c] can't[/c][00:16:22.399][c] really[/c] in the audience where you can't really in the audience where you can't really hope[00:16:22.959][c] to[/c][00:16:23.120][c] predict[/c][00:16:23.440][c] it.[/c][00:16:24.240][c] But[/c][00:16:24.320][c] on[/c][00:16:24.560][c] a[/c][00:16:24.720][c] macro[/c][00:16:25.199][c] time[/c] hope to predict it. But on a macro time hope to predict it. But on a macro time frame,[00:16:25.839][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:16:26.399][c] does[/c][00:16:26.720][c] seem[/c][00:16:26.959][c] to[/c][00:16:27.120][c] top[/c][00:16:27.360][c] out[/c] frame, Bitcoin does seem to top out frame, Bitcoin does seem to top out every[00:16:28.000][c] four[/c][00:16:28.240][c] years.[/c][00:16:28.560][c] It[/c][00:16:28.720][c] seems[/c][00:16:28.880][c] to[/c][00:16:29.040][c] bottom[/c] every four years. It seems to bottom every four years. It seems to bottom out,[00:16:29.839][c] you[/c][00:16:29.920][c] know,[/c][00:16:30.480][c] on[/c][00:16:30.639][c] a[/c][00:16:30.800][c] pretty[/c][00:16:31.040][c] cyclical[/c] out, you know, on a pretty cyclical out, you know, on a pretty cyclical basis.[00:16:32.720][c] And[/c][00:16:33.360][c] it[/c][00:16:33.600][c] just[/c][00:16:33.839][c] seems[/c][00:16:34.480][c] crazy[/c][00:16:35.040][c] how[/c][00:16:35.519][c] so[/c] basis. And it just seems crazy how so basis. And it just seems crazy how so many[00:16:36.000][c] times[/c][00:16:36.240][c] in[/c][00:16:36.480][c] history[/c][00:16:37.120][c] we've[/c][00:16:37.440][c] seen[/c][00:16:37.680][c] Bitcoin[/c] many times in history we've seen Bitcoin many times in history we've seen Bitcoin going[00:16:38.399][c] into[/c][00:16:38.639][c] midterm[/c][00:16:39.040][c] years[/c][00:16:39.360][c] crash[/c][00:16:39.680][c] in[/c] going into midterm years crash in going into midterm years crash in February,[00:16:40.880][c] see[/c][00:16:41.120][c] like[/c][00:16:41.279][c] a[/c][00:16:41.519][c] week[/c][00:16:41.680][c] or[/c][00:16:41.920][c] two[/c][00:16:42.079][c] of[/c][00:16:42.240][c] a[/c] February, see like a week or two of a February, see like a week or two of a rally[00:16:42.720][c] in[/c][00:16:42.959][c] March,[/c][00:16:43.600][c] and[/c][00:16:43.759][c] then[/c][00:16:43.920][c] just[/c][00:16:44.160][c] drop[/c][00:16:44.399][c] again[/c] rally in March, and then just drop again rally in March, and then just drop again going[00:16:44.959][c] into[/c][00:16:45.199][c] the[/c][00:16:45.360][c] summer[/c][00:16:45.600][c] months,[/c][00:16:45.839][c] right?[/c] going into the summer months, right? going into the summer months, right? Like[00:16:46.160][c] April,[/c][00:16:46.399][c] May,[/c][00:16:46.639][c] June,[/c][00:16:46.959][c] July,[/c][00:16:47.360][c] just[/c][00:16:47.519][c] kind[/c] Like April, May, June, July, just kind Like April, May, June, July, just kind of[00:16:47.759][c] drop[/c][00:16:48.079][c] going[/c][00:16:48.320][c] into[/c][00:16:48.560][c] the[/c][00:16:48.720][c] summer.[/c][00:16:49.680][c] And[/c][00:16:50.399][c] it[/c] of drop going into the summer. And it of drop going into the summer. And it and[00:16:50.800][c] it[/c][00:16:50.880][c] and[/c][00:16:51.120][c] it[/c][00:16:51.279][c] just[/c][00:16:51.440][c] feels[/c][00:16:51.759][c] like[/c][00:16:52.000][c] deja[/c][00:16:52.480][c] vu[/c] and it and it just feels like deja vu and it and it just feels like deja vu all[00:16:53.199][c] the[/c][00:16:53.440][c] time.[/c] all the time. all the time. And[00:16:55.360][c] and[/c][00:16:55.600][c] it[/c][00:16:55.839][c] it's[/c][00:16:56.079][c] crazy[/c][00:16:56.399][c] because,[/c][00:16:56.720][c] you[/c][00:16:56.880][c] know,[/c] And and it it's crazy because, you know, And and it it's crazy because, you know, everyone[00:16:57.360][c] just[/c][00:16:57.519][c] sits[/c][00:16:57.839][c] around[/c][00:16:59.199][c] talking.[/c][00:16:59.680][c] I[/c] everyone just sits around talking. I everyone just sits around talking. I mean,[00:17:00.000][c] you[/c][00:17:00.160][c] could[/c][00:17:00.480][c] I[/c][00:17:00.800][c] even[/c][00:17:01.040][c] remember[/c][00:17:01.360][c] back[/c][00:17:01.600][c] in[/c] mean, you could I even remember back in mean, you could I even remember back in 2019,[00:17:03.199][c] we[/c][00:17:03.440][c] were[/c][00:17:03.600][c] all[/c][00:17:03.759][c] just[/c][00:17:03.920][c] sitting[/c][00:17:04.160][c] around[/c] 2019, we were all just sitting around 2019, we were all just sitting around waiting[00:17:04.720][c] for[/c][00:17:05.439][c] the[/c][00:17:05.760][c] top,[/c][00:17:06.160][c] you[/c][00:17:06.319][c] know,[/c][00:17:06.480][c] for[/c][00:17:06.640][c] for,[/c] waiting for the top, you know, for for, waiting for the top, you know, for for, you[00:17:07.439][c] know,[/c][00:17:07.600][c] euphoria[/c][00:17:08.240][c] in[/c][00:17:08.480][c] December[/c][00:17:08.880][c] 2021[/c][00:17:09.439][c] and[/c] you know, euphoria in December 2021 and you know, euphoria in December 2021 and then[00:17:09.760][c] it[/c][00:17:09.919][c] happened.[/c][00:17:10.559][c] And[/c][00:17:10.720][c] then[/c][00:17:10.880][c] this[/c][00:17:11.120][c] cycle,[/c] then it happened. And then this cycle, then it happened. And then this cycle, we[00:17:11.679][c] were[/c][00:17:11.760][c] all[/c][00:17:11.919][c] just[/c][00:17:12.079][c] waiting[/c][00:17:12.319][c] around[/c][00:17:12.480][c] for[/c][00:17:12.640][c] the[/c] we were all just waiting around for the we were all just waiting around for the Q4[00:17:13.280][c] 2025[/c][00:17:13.919][c] for[/c][00:17:14.079][c] the[/c][00:17:14.240][c] top[/c][00:17:14.400][c] and[/c][00:17:14.559][c] then[/c][00:17:14.720][c] it[/c] Q4 2025 for the top and then it Q4 2025 for the top and then it happened.[00:17:15.039][c] And[/c][00:17:15.199][c] then[/c][00:17:15.679][c] there's[/c][00:17:15.919][c] always[/c][00:17:16.559][c] Yeah.[/c] happened. And then there's always Yeah. happened. And then there's always Yeah. And[00:17:16.959][c] then[/c][00:17:17.039][c] there's[/c][00:17:17.280][c] always[/c][00:17:17.439][c] the[/c][00:17:17.600][c] people[/c][00:17:17.760][c] that[/c] And then there's always the people that And then there's always the people that do[00:17:18.000][c] the[/c][00:17:18.160][c] mental[/c][00:17:18.480][c] gymnastics[/c][00:17:19.120][c] and[/c][00:17:19.280][c] then[/c][00:17:19.439][c] try[/c][00:17:19.520][c] to[/c] do the mental gymnastics and then try to do the mental gymnastics and then try to be[00:17:19.760][c] like,[/c][00:17:19.839][c] \"Oh,[/c][00:17:20.079][c] well,[/c][00:17:20.240][c] no.[/c][00:17:20.400][c] If[/c][00:17:20.559][c] everyone's[/c] be like, \"Oh, well, no. If everyone's be like, \"Oh, well, no. If everyone's expecting[00:17:21.120][c] it,[/c][00:17:21.280][c] then[/c][00:17:21.439][c] it[/c][00:17:21.600][c] won't[/c][00:17:21.760][c] happen.\"[/c][00:17:22.000][c] and[/c] expecting it, then it won't happen.\" and expecting it, then it won't happen.\" and then[00:17:22.319][c] it[/c][00:17:22.480][c] just[/c][00:17:22.640][c] happens[/c][00:17:22.880][c] anyways,[/c] then it just happens anyways, then it just happens anyways, >> right? >> right? >> right? >> So,[00:17:25.120][c] I[/c][00:17:25.280][c] I[/c][00:17:25.520][c] think[/c][00:17:25.679][c] that's[/c][00:17:25.839][c] why[/c][00:17:26.000][c] it[/c][00:17:26.160][c] feels[/c][00:17:26.319][c] like[/c] >> So, I I think that's why it feels like >> So, I I think that's why it feels like we're[00:17:26.640][c] living[/c][00:17:26.799][c] in[/c][00:17:26.959][c] a[/c][00:17:27.120][c] simulation.[/c][00:17:27.679][c] Now,[/c][00:17:27.919][c] that[/c] we're living in a simulation. Now, that we're living in a simulation. Now, that video[00:17:28.480][c] I[/c][00:17:28.720][c] made[/c][00:17:28.880][c] where[/c][00:17:29.039][c] I[/c][00:17:29.200][c] said[/c][00:17:29.360][c] we're[/c][00:17:29.520][c] living[/c] video I made where I said we're living video I made where I said we're living in[00:17:29.840][c] a[/c][00:17:30.000][c] simulation[/c][00:17:30.799][c] was[/c][00:17:31.039][c] based[/c][00:17:31.200][c] on[/c][00:17:31.360][c] the[/c][00:17:31.600][c] fact[/c] in a simulation was based on the fact in a simulation was based on the fact that[00:17:32.320][c] in[/c][00:17:32.559][c] early[/c][00:17:32.960][c] February[/c][00:17:33.440][c] of[/c][00:17:33.679][c] 2018,[/c] that in early February of 2018, that in early February of 2018, coin[00:17:35.520][c] dropped[/c][00:17:36.000][c] to[/c][00:17:36.400][c] 60K[/c][00:17:37.440][c] and[/c][00:17:37.600][c] the[/c][00:17:37.840][c] fear[/c][00:17:38.000][c] and[/c] coin dropped to 60K and the fear and coin dropped to 60K and the fear and greed[00:17:38.400][c] index[/c][00:17:39.280][c] collapsed[/c][00:17:40.320][c] and[/c][00:17:40.640][c] or[/c][00:17:40.880][c] yeah[/c][00:17:41.280][c] to[/c][00:17:41.440][c] 6K.[/c] greed index collapsed and or yeah to 6K. greed index collapsed and or yeah to 6K. Sorry,[00:17:42.240][c] did[/c][00:17:42.320][c] I[/c][00:17:42.480][c] say[/c][00:17:42.640][c] 60?[/c][00:17:43.039][c] In[/c][00:17:43.280][c] 2018,[/c][00:17:43.840][c] Bitcoin[/c] Sorry, did I say 60? In 2018, Bitcoin Sorry, did I say 60? In 2018, Bitcoin dropped[00:17:44.559][c] to[/c][00:17:44.720][c] 6K[/c][00:17:45.679][c] and[/c][00:17:45.919][c] and[/c][00:17:46.240][c] then[/c][00:17:46.400][c] found[/c][00:17:46.640][c] support[/c] dropped to 6K and and then found support dropped to 6K and and then found support there[00:17:47.200][c] for[/c][00:17:47.440][c] a[/c][00:17:47.679][c] few[/c][00:17:47.760][c] months[/c][00:17:48.080][c] before[/c][00:17:48.320][c] going[/c] there for a few months before going there for a few months before going lower.[00:17:49.039][c] And[/c][00:17:49.200][c] then[/c][00:17:49.360][c] this[/c][00:17:49.600][c] like[/c][00:17:49.840][c] 2026,[/c][00:17:50.559][c] Bitcoin[/c] lower. And then this like 2026, Bitcoin lower. And then this like 2026, Bitcoin dropped[00:17:51.280][c] to[/c][00:17:51.520][c] 60K[/c] dropped to 60K dropped to 60K before[00:17:53.760][c] finding[/c][00:17:54.160][c] support[/c][00:17:54.400][c] there[/c][00:17:54.640][c] for[/c][00:17:54.799][c] a[/c] before finding support there for a before finding support there for a little[00:17:55.039][c] while.[/c][00:17:55.280][c] And[/c][00:17:55.440][c] eventually[/c][00:17:55.760][c] I[/c][00:17:55.919][c] do[/c][00:17:56.080][c] think[/c] little while. And eventually I do think little while. And eventually I do think it[00:17:56.480][c] will[/c][00:17:56.640][c] go[/c][00:17:56.799][c] into[/c][00:17:57.120][c] the[/c][00:17:57.679][c] into[/c][00:17:58.000][c] the[/c][00:17:58.160][c] 50s.[/c][00:17:58.960][c] But[/c] it will go into the into the 50s. But it will go into the into the 50s. But it's[00:17:59.280][c] just[/c][00:17:59.440][c] crazy[/c][00:17:59.840][c] how,[/c][00:18:00.400][c] you[/c][00:18:00.559][c] know,[/c][00:18:00.720][c] we're[/c] it's just crazy how, you know, we're it's just crazy how, you know, we're just[00:18:01.200][c] operating[/c][00:18:01.679][c] on[/c][00:18:01.840][c] a[/c][00:18:02.080][c] somewhat[/c][00:18:02.799][c] it[/c][00:18:03.039][c] just[/c] just operating on a somewhat it just just operating on a somewhat it just feels[00:18:03.360][c] like[/c][00:18:03.520][c] d\u0398ja[/c][00:18:03.919][c] vu,[/c][00:18:04.160][c] right?[/c][00:18:04.320][c] We're[/c][00:18:04.480][c] just[/c] feels like d\u0398ja vu, right? We're just feels like d\u0398ja vu, right? We're just 10x[00:18:05.120][c] higher[/c][00:18:05.360][c] than[/c][00:18:05.520][c] we[/c][00:18:05.600][c] were[/c][00:18:05.760][c] back[/c][00:18:05.919][c] in[/c][00:18:06.160][c] 2018,[/c] 10x higher than we were back in 2018, 10x higher than we were back in 2018, >> right?[00:18:07.600][c] Very[/c][00:18:07.840][c] cyclical[/c][00:18:08.799][c] in[/c][00:18:09.039][c] your[/c][00:18:09.280][c] opinion,[/c] >> right? Very cyclical in your opinion, >> right? Very cyclical in your opinion, very[00:18:10.000][c] predictable[/c][00:18:10.480][c] as[/c][00:18:10.720][c] well.[/c][00:18:11.360][c] But[/c][00:18:11.919][c] here's[/c] very predictable as well. But here's very predictable as well. But here's that[00:18:12.799][c] cycle[/c][00:18:13.200][c] question[/c][00:18:14.160][c] uh[/c][00:18:14.240][c] that[/c][00:18:14.559][c] I[/c][00:18:14.720][c] mentioned[/c] that cycle question uh that I mentioned that cycle question uh that I mentioned earlier[00:18:15.360][c] that[/c][00:18:15.520][c] I[/c][00:18:15.760][c] wanted[/c][00:18:15.919][c] to[/c][00:18:16.080][c] get[/c][00:18:16.160][c] to.[/c][00:18:16.640][c] So,[/c] earlier that I wanted to get to. So, earlier that I wanted to get to. So, people[00:18:17.520][c] in[/c][00:18:17.760][c] crypto[/c][00:18:18.640][c] live[/c][00:18:19.120][c] and[/c][00:18:19.360][c] die[/c][00:18:19.600][c] by[/c][00:18:19.760][c] these[/c] people in crypto live and die by these people in crypto live and die by these four-year[00:18:20.480][c] cycles.[/c][00:18:20.960][c] You're[/c][00:18:21.200][c] talking[/c][00:18:21.440][c] about[/c] four-year cycles. You're talking about four-year cycles. You're talking about how[00:18:21.919][c] these[/c][00:18:22.320][c] patterns[/c][00:18:22.799][c] have[/c][00:18:23.039][c] just[/c][00:18:23.280][c] repeated[/c] how these patterns have just repeated how these patterns have just repeated and[00:18:23.919][c] repeated[/c][00:18:24.320][c] over[/c][00:18:24.640][c] again.[/c][00:18:25.440][c] But[/c][00:18:25.600][c] something[/c] and repeated over again. But something and repeated over again. But something that[00:18:26.160][c] doesn't[/c][00:18:26.320][c] get[/c][00:18:26.559][c] talked[/c][00:18:26.799][c] about[/c][00:18:27.120][c] nearly[/c] that doesn't get talked about nearly that doesn't get talked about nearly enough[00:18:27.919][c] is[/c][00:18:28.160][c] that[/c][00:18:28.320][c] the[/c][00:18:28.559][c] S&P[/c][00:18:29.120][c] 500[/c][00:18:29.760][c] showed[/c][00:18:30.080][c] an[/c] enough is that the S&P 500 showed an enough is that the S&P 500 showed an incredibly[00:18:30.880][c] similar[/c][00:18:31.679][c] roughly[/c][00:18:32.160][c] four-year[/c] incredibly similar roughly four-year incredibly similar roughly four-year rhythm,[00:18:32.960][c] which[/c][00:18:33.120][c] you've[/c][00:18:33.440][c] called[/c][00:18:33.600][c] out[/c][00:18:33.760][c] in[/c][00:18:33.919][c] a[/c] rhythm, which you've called out in a rhythm, which you've called out in a recent[00:18:34.400][c] video.[/c][00:18:34.720][c] So,[/c][00:18:34.960][c] in[/c][00:18:35.120][c] 1958,[/c][00:18:36.000][c] 62,[/c][00:18:36.640][c] 66,[/c][00:18:37.280][c] 70,[/c] recent video. So, in 1958, 62, 66, 70, recent video. So, in 1958, 62, 66, 70, 74,[00:18:38.799][c] 78,[/c][00:18:39.200][c] and[/c][00:18:39.440][c] 82,[/c][00:18:40.400][c] and[/c][00:18:40.640][c] then[/c][00:18:40.960][c] that[/c][00:18:41.280][c] pattern[/c] 74, 78, and 82, and then that pattern 74, 78, and 82, and then that pattern broke[00:18:42.000][c] in[/c][00:18:42.240][c] 1986.[/c][00:18:43.440][c] So,[/c][00:18:43.760][c] how[/c][00:18:44.000][c] has[/c][00:18:44.160][c] studying[/c][00:18:44.720][c] that[/c] broke in 1986. So, how has studying that broke in 1986. So, how has studying that S&P[00:18:45.600][c] 500[/c][00:18:46.320][c] history[/c][00:18:46.799][c] influenced[/c][00:18:47.280][c] how[/c][00:18:47.440][c] you[/c][00:18:47.600][c] think[/c] S&P 500 history influenced how you think S&P 500 history influenced how you think about[00:18:48.000][c] cycles[/c][00:18:48.799][c] for[/c][00:18:49.039][c] both[/c][00:18:49.360][c] traditional[/c] about cycles for both traditional about cycles for both traditional markets[00:18:50.160][c] and[/c][00:18:50.559][c] crypto?[/c][00:18:51.039][c] And[/c][00:18:51.200][c] do[/c][00:18:51.360][c] you[/c][00:18:51.520][c] think[/c] markets and crypto? And do you think markets and crypto? And do you think Bitcoin's[00:18:52.160][c] four-year[/c][00:18:52.720][c] cycle[/c][00:18:53.360][c] is[/c][00:18:53.600][c] at[/c][00:18:53.919][c] risk[/c][00:18:54.240][c] of[/c] Bitcoin's four-year cycle is at risk of Bitcoin's four-year cycle is at risk of breaking[00:18:54.799][c] the[/c][00:18:55.120][c] same[/c][00:18:55.280][c] way?[/c][00:18:55.600][c] Maybe[/c][00:18:56.000][c] given[/c][00:18:56.320][c] this[/c] breaking the same way? Maybe given this breaking the same way? Maybe given this institutional[00:18:57.280][c] transition[/c][00:18:57.919][c] phase[/c][00:18:58.559][c] that[/c][00:18:58.880][c] it's[/c] institutional transition phase that it's institutional transition phase that it's going[00:18:59.360][c] through?[/c] going through? going through? >> Well,[00:19:00.400][c] I[/c][00:19:00.559][c] mean,[/c][00:19:00.720][c] it[/c][00:19:00.880][c] makes[/c][00:19:01.039][c] me[/c][00:19:01.200][c] think[/c][00:19:01.360][c] that[/c][00:19:01.600][c] the[/c] >> Well, I mean, it makes me think that the >> Well, I mean, it makes me think that the four-year[00:19:02.160][c] cycle[/c][00:19:02.400][c] for[/c][00:19:02.640][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:19:03.039][c] is[/c][00:19:03.280][c] not[/c][00:19:03.440][c] based[/c] four-year cycle for Bitcoin is not based four-year cycle for Bitcoin is not based on[00:19:03.760][c] the[/c][00:19:04.000][c] having[/c][00:19:04.559][c] because[/c][00:19:05.360][c] the[/c][00:19:05.679][c] stock[/c][00:19:05.919][c] market[/c] on the having because the stock market on the having because the stock market didn't[00:19:06.960][c] have[/c][00:19:07.039][c] a[/c][00:19:07.520][c] having[/c][00:19:07.919][c] back[/c][00:19:08.160][c] in[/c][00:19:08.320][c] the[/c][00:19:08.400][c] '[/c][00:19:08.400][c] 50s,[/c] didn't have a having back in the ' 50s, didn't have a having back in the ' 50s, '60s,7s,[00:19:09.360][c] and[/c][00:19:09.520][c] '[/c][00:19:09.520][c] 80s.[/c][00:19:09.760][c] Yet,[/c][00:19:09.919][c] it[/c][00:19:10.080][c] still[/c] '60s,7s, and ' 80s. Yet, it still '60s,7s, and ' 80s. Yet, it still bottomed[00:19:10.559][c] every[/c][00:19:10.720][c] four[/c][00:19:10.960][c] years.[/c][00:19:11.440][c] And[/c][00:19:11.919][c] when[/c][00:19:12.160][c] it[/c] bottomed every four years. And when it bottomed every four years. And when it bottomed,[00:19:12.720][c] it[/c][00:19:12.880][c] tend[/c][00:19:13.039][c] to[/c][00:19:13.200][c] b[/c][00:19:13.360][c] it[/c][00:19:13.600][c] tended[/c][00:19:13.840][c] to[/c] bottomed, it tend to b it tended to bottomed, it tend to b it tended to bottom[00:19:14.240][c] in[/c][00:19:14.400][c] the[/c][00:19:14.480][c] midterm[/c][00:19:14.960][c] year.[/c][00:19:15.520][c] Now,[/c][00:19:15.760][c] there[/c] bottom in the midterm year. Now, there bottom in the midterm year. Now, there was[00:19:16.160][c] a[/c][00:19:16.400][c] time[/c][00:19:16.720][c] where[/c][00:19:16.960][c] it[/c][00:19:17.120][c] would[/c][00:19:17.360][c] bottom[/c][00:19:18.559][c] um[/c][00:19:19.840][c] uh[/c] was a time where it would bottom um uh was a time where it would bottom um uh you[00:19:20.240][c] know,[/c][00:19:20.480][c] at[/c][00:19:20.720][c] slightly[/c][00:19:21.120][c] different[/c][00:19:21.440][c] times[/c] you know, at slightly different times you know, at slightly different times than[00:19:22.000][c] the[/c][00:19:22.160][c] midterm[/c][00:19:22.559][c] year,[/c][00:19:22.720][c] but[/c][00:19:22.880][c] it[/c][00:19:23.039][c] was[/c][00:19:23.120][c] really[/c] than the midterm year, but it was really than the midterm year, but it was really close[00:19:23.520][c] to[/c][00:19:23.679][c] the[/c][00:19:23.760][c] midterm[/c][00:19:24.160][c] year.[/c][00:19:24.799][c] I[/c][00:19:25.039][c] think[/c][00:19:25.200][c] that[/c] close to the midterm year. I think that close to the midterm year. I think that Bitcoin[00:19:26.480][c] will[/c][00:19:26.880][c] likely[/c][00:19:27.440][c] continue[/c][00:19:27.919][c] to[/c][00:19:28.320][c] show[/c] Bitcoin will likely continue to show Bitcoin will likely continue to show that[00:19:28.799][c] it[/c][00:19:29.039][c] bottoms[/c][00:19:29.520][c] most[/c][00:19:29.840][c] of[/c][00:19:29.919][c] the[/c][00:19:30.160][c] time[/c][00:19:30.720][c] around[/c] that it bottoms most of the time around that it bottoms most of the time around the[00:19:31.360][c] end[/c][00:19:31.520][c] of[/c][00:19:31.600][c] the[/c][00:19:31.760][c] midterm[/c][00:19:32.240][c] year[/c][00:19:32.960][c] with[/c][00:19:33.280][c] some[/c] the end of the midterm year with some the end of the midterm year with some deviations,[00:19:34.640][c] right?[/c][00:19:34.799][c] Like,[/c][00:19:35.039][c] could[/c][00:19:35.200][c] it[/c][00:19:35.360][c] bottom[/c] deviations, right? Like, could it bottom deviations, right? Like, could it bottom one[00:19:36.000][c] cycle[/c][00:19:36.320][c] in[/c][00:19:36.559][c] May[/c][00:19:36.799][c] of[/c][00:19:36.960][c] the[/c][00:19:37.039][c] midterm[/c][00:19:37.440][c] year?[/c] one cycle in May of the midterm year? one cycle in May of the midterm year? Yes.[00:19:38.320][c] Could[/c][00:19:38.480][c] it[/c][00:19:38.640][c] bottle?[/c][00:19:39.120][c] Could[/c][00:19:39.280][c] it[/c][00:19:39.440][c] bottom[/c] Yes. Could it bottle? Could it bottom Yes. Could it bottle? Could it bottom after[00:19:39.919][c] the[/c][00:19:40.000][c] midterm[/c][00:19:40.320][c] year[/c][00:19:40.480][c] is[/c][00:19:40.559][c] over?[/c][00:19:40.720][c] Yes,[/c][00:19:40.960][c] it[/c] after the midterm year is over? Yes, it after the midterm year is over? Yes, it already[00:19:41.280][c] did[/c][00:19:41.440][c] that[/c][00:19:41.520][c] in[/c][00:19:41.760][c] January[/c][00:19:42.240][c] 2015.[/c][00:19:43.200][c] So[/c] already did that in January 2015. So already did that in January 2015. So there[00:19:43.679][c] are[/c][00:19:43.919][c] times[/c][00:19:44.480][c] where[/c][00:19:44.720][c] it[/c][00:19:44.960][c] can[/c][00:19:45.120][c] slightly[/c] there are times where it can slightly there are times where it can slightly deviate,[00:19:46.240][c] but[/c][00:19:46.480][c] the[/c][00:19:46.640][c] low[/c][00:19:46.960][c] is[/c][00:19:47.280][c] approximately[/c] deviate, but the low is approximately deviate, but the low is approximately every[00:19:48.000][c] four[/c][00:19:48.080][c] years.[/c][00:19:48.320][c] And[/c][00:19:48.480][c] I[/c][00:19:48.640][c] so[/c][00:19:48.799][c] I[/c][00:19:48.960][c] don't[/c] every four years. And I so I don't every four years. And I so I don't really[00:19:49.360][c] think[/c][00:19:49.919][c] when[/c][00:19:50.080][c] you[/c][00:19:50.240][c] look[/c][00:19:50.320][c] at[/c][00:19:50.480][c] the[/c][00:19:50.640][c] stock[/c] really think when you look at the stock really think when you look at the stock market,[00:19:51.120][c] it[/c][00:19:51.280][c] makes[/c][00:19:51.440][c] me[/c][00:19:51.520][c] think[/c][00:19:51.679][c] that[/c][00:19:51.760][c] the[/c] market, it makes me think that the market, it makes me think that the four-ear[00:19:52.240][c] cycle[/c][00:19:52.480][c] by[/c][00:19:52.640][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:19:53.440][c] is[/c][00:19:53.840][c] not[/c][00:19:54.320][c] based[/c] four-ear cycle by Bitcoin is not based four-ear cycle by Bitcoin is not based around[00:19:55.280][c] the[/c][00:19:55.520][c] having,[/c][00:19:56.240][c] but[/c][00:19:56.480][c] it's[/c][00:19:56.720][c] more[/c][00:19:56.880][c] so[/c] around the having, but it's more so around the having, but it's more so based[00:19:57.520][c] around[/c][00:19:58.400][c] liquidity[/c][00:19:59.039][c] and[/c][00:19:59.200][c] and[/c][00:19:59.600][c] macro[/c] based around liquidity and and macro based around liquidity and and macro forces,[00:20:00.559][c] maybe[/c][00:20:00.799][c] the[/c][00:20:00.960][c] presidential[/c][00:20:01.600][c] cycle.[/c][00:20:02.799][c] um[/c] forces, maybe the presidential cycle. um forces, maybe the presidential cycle. um you[00:20:04.000][c] know[/c][00:20:04.080][c] in[/c][00:20:04.320][c] in[/c][00:20:04.400][c] in[/c] you know in in in you know in in in have[00:20:07.039][c] or[/c][00:20:07.200][c] in[/c][00:20:07.440][c] election[/c][00:20:07.840][c] years[/c][00:20:08.240][c] and[/c][00:20:08.400][c] and[/c][00:20:08.880][c] sort[/c] have or in election years and and sort have or in election years and and sort of[00:20:09.200][c] leading[/c][00:20:09.440][c] up[/c][00:20:09.600][c] to[/c][00:20:09.679][c] it[/c][00:20:09.919][c] in[/c][00:20:10.080][c] pre-election[/c] of leading up to it in pre-election of leading up to it in pre-election years[00:20:10.880][c] you[/c][00:20:11.039][c] could[/c][00:20:11.200][c] argue[/c][00:20:11.440][c] that[/c][00:20:11.919][c] the[/c][00:20:12.240][c] powers[/c] years you could argue that the powers years you could argue that the powers that[00:20:12.799][c] be[/c][00:20:13.039][c] are[/c][00:20:13.280][c] more[/c][00:20:13.520][c] incentivized[/c][00:20:14.320][c] to[/c][00:20:14.480][c] to[/c][00:20:14.880][c] sort[/c] that be are more incentivized to to sort that be are more incentivized to to sort of[00:20:15.200][c] try[/c][00:20:15.360][c] to[/c][00:20:15.600][c] have[/c][00:20:15.840][c] markets[/c][00:20:16.240][c] that[/c][00:20:16.480][c] are[/c][00:20:17.200][c] rising[/c] of try to have markets that are rising of try to have markets that are rising up[00:20:18.720][c] um[/c][00:20:19.360][c] rather[/c][00:20:19.679][c] than[/c][00:20:19.840][c] dropping[/c][00:20:20.480][c] because[/c][00:20:20.960][c] if[/c] up um rather than dropping because if up um rather than dropping because if anytime[00:20:21.679][c] we[/c][00:20:21.840][c] have[/c][00:20:21.919][c] a[/c][00:20:22.160][c] recession[/c][00:20:22.640][c] the[/c] anytime we have a recession the anytime we have a recession the incumbent[00:20:23.360][c] is[/c][00:20:24.000][c] very[/c][00:20:24.320][c] likely[/c][00:20:24.640][c] not[/c][00:20:24.799][c] to[/c][00:20:24.960][c] get[/c] incumbent is very likely not to get incumbent is very likely not to get reelected.[00:20:26.240][c] So[/c][00:20:27.039][c] you[/c][00:20:27.200][c] you[/c][00:20:27.440][c] could[/c][00:20:27.600][c] argue[/c][00:20:28.000][c] that[/c] reelected. So you you could argue that reelected. So you you could argue that that[00:20:29.039][c] um[/c][00:20:29.360][c] it[/c][00:20:29.600][c] has[/c][00:20:29.760][c] a[/c][00:20:30.000][c] lot[/c][00:20:30.080][c] more[/c][00:20:30.240][c] to[/c][00:20:30.400][c] do[/c][00:20:30.559][c] with[/c] that um it has a lot more to do with that um it has a lot more to do with other[00:20:30.960][c] factors.[/c][00:20:31.520][c] I'm[/c][00:20:31.760][c] not[/c][00:20:31.919][c] saying[/c][00:20:32.000][c] the[/c][00:20:32.240][c] having[/c] other factors. I'm not saying the having other factors. I'm not saying the having has[00:20:32.799][c] no[/c][00:20:33.120][c] effect.[/c][00:20:33.440][c] I[/c][00:20:33.679][c] mean,[/c][00:20:33.760][c] it[/c][00:20:33.840][c] it[/c][00:20:34.159][c] certainly[/c] has no effect. I mean, it it certainly has no effect. I mean, it it certainly has[00:20:34.720][c] some[/c][00:20:34.960][c] effect,[/c][00:20:35.360][c] but[/c][00:20:35.919][c] I[/c][00:20:36.159][c] would[/c][00:20:36.320][c] still[/c][00:20:36.640][c] think[/c] has some effect, but I would still think has some effect, but I would still think that[00:20:37.200][c] even,[/c][00:20:38.240][c] you[/c][00:20:38.400][c] know,[/c] that even, you know, that even, you know, I[00:20:40.159][c] I[/c][00:20:40.559][c] still[/c][00:20:40.799][c] think[/c][00:20:40.960][c] that[/c][00:20:41.600][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:20:42.240][c] behaves[/c][00:20:42.720][c] on[/c] I I still think that Bitcoin behaves on I I still think that Bitcoin behaves on a[00:20:43.120][c] four-year[/c][00:20:43.600][c] cycle[/c][00:20:44.080][c] similar[/c][00:20:44.400][c] to[/c][00:20:44.559][c] how[/c][00:20:44.799][c] risk[/c] a four-year cycle similar to how risk a four-year cycle similar to how risk assets[00:20:45.440][c] have[/c][00:20:45.520][c] previously.[/c][00:20:45.840][c] And[/c][00:20:46.000][c] also,[/c][00:20:46.159][c] by[/c][00:20:46.320][c] the[/c] assets have previously. And also, by the assets have previously. And also, by the way,[00:20:46.799][c] the[/c][00:20:47.039][c] stock[/c][00:20:47.360][c] market[/c][00:20:47.679][c] also[/c][00:20:48.000][c] bottomed[/c][00:20:48.320][c] in[/c] way, the stock market also bottomed in way, the stock market also bottomed in Q4[00:20:48.960][c] of[/c][00:20:49.280][c] 2022,[/c][00:20:50.159][c] right?[/c][00:20:50.400][c] And[/c][00:20:50.559][c] it[/c][00:20:50.720][c] also[/c][00:20:50.880][c] bottomed[/c] Q4 of 2022, right? And it also bottomed Q4 of 2022, right? And it also bottomed in[00:20:51.440][c] Q4[/c][00:20:52.000][c] of[/c][00:20:52.559][c] 2018[/c][00:20:53.120][c] as[/c][00:20:53.360][c] well,[/c][00:20:53.600][c] right?[/c][00:20:53.919][c] So,[/c][00:20:54.480][c] again,[/c] in Q4 of 2018 as well, right? So, again, in Q4 of 2018 as well, right? So, again, the[00:20:54.960][c] S&P[/c][00:20:55.360][c] does[/c][00:20:55.520][c] not[/c][00:20:55.679][c] have[/c][00:20:55.760][c] a[/c][00:20:55.919][c] having,[/c][00:20:56.720][c] but[/c][00:20:56.960][c] yet[/c] the S&P does not have a having, but yet the S&P does not have a having, but yet it[00:20:57.360][c] still[/c][00:20:57.520][c] seems[/c][00:20:57.679][c] to[/c][00:20:57.840][c] operate[/c][00:20:58.159][c] on[/c][00:20:58.400][c] this[/c][00:20:58.799][c] on[/c][00:20:59.039][c] the[/c] it still seems to operate on this on the it still seems to operate on this on the same[00:20:59.440][c] cyclical[/c][00:20:59.919][c] time[/c][00:21:00.159][c] frame.[/c][00:21:01.120][c] H[/c][00:21:01.919][c] and[/c][00:21:02.080][c] Ben,[/c] same cyclical time frame. H and Ben, same cyclical time frame. H and Ben, there[00:21:02.640][c] have[/c][00:21:02.799][c] been[/c][00:21:03.280][c] moments[/c][00:21:03.919][c] in[/c][00:21:04.240][c] Bitcoin's[/c] there have been moments in Bitcoin's there have been moments in Bitcoin's history[00:21:05.440][c] where[/c][00:21:05.840][c] if[/c][00:21:06.080][c] you[/c][00:21:06.240][c] just[/c][00:21:06.720][c] loaded[/c][00:21:07.200][c] up,[/c][00:21:07.840][c] it[/c] history where if you just loaded up, it history where if you just loaded up, it changed[00:21:08.320][c] your[/c][00:21:08.559][c] life.[/c][00:21:09.120][c] Typically[/c][00:21:09.520][c] around[/c] changed your life. Typically around changed your life. Typically around these[00:21:10.000][c] bottoming[/c][00:21:10.559][c] points,[/c][00:21:11.440][c] those[/c][00:21:11.760][c] moments[/c] these bottoming points, those moments these bottoming points, those moments can[00:21:12.480][c] look[/c][00:21:12.640][c] different[/c][00:21:13.039][c] cycle[/c][00:21:13.440][c] to[/c][00:21:13.679][c] cycle.[/c][00:21:14.480][c] And[/c][00:21:14.720][c] I[/c] can look different cycle to cycle. And I can look different cycle to cycle. And I would[00:21:15.039][c] say[/c][00:21:15.200][c] this[/c][00:21:15.440][c] one[/c][00:21:15.679][c] already[/c][00:21:16.159][c] feels[/c] would say this one already feels would say this one already feels different.[00:21:17.360][c] What[/c][00:21:17.520][c] do[/c][00:21:17.679][c] you[/c][00:21:17.760][c] think[/c][00:21:17.919][c] a[/c][00:21:18.240][c] back[/c][00:21:18.559][c] up[/c] different. What do you think a back up different. What do you think a back up the[00:21:19.039][c] truck[/c][00:21:19.520][c] moment[/c][00:21:20.159][c] for[/c][00:21:20.480][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:21:20.960][c] this[/c][00:21:21.200][c] cycle[/c] the truck moment for Bitcoin this cycle the truck moment for Bitcoin this cycle could[00:21:21.840][c] actually[/c][00:21:22.159][c] look[/c][00:21:22.400][c] like?[/c][00:21:22.960][c] And[/c][00:21:23.120][c] what[/c] could actually look like? And what could actually look like? And what specific[00:21:23.840][c] signs[/c][00:21:24.240][c] would[/c][00:21:24.480][c] you[/c][00:21:24.640][c] be[/c][00:21:24.880][c] watching[/c] specific signs would you be watching specific signs would you be watching for?[00:21:25.840][c] And[/c][00:21:26.000][c] are[/c][00:21:26.240][c] any[/c][00:21:26.400][c] of[/c][00:21:26.559][c] them[/c][00:21:26.799][c] starting[/c][00:21:27.120][c] to[/c] for? And are any of them starting to for? And are any of them starting to even[00:21:27.840][c] show[/c][00:21:28.080][c] up[/c][00:21:28.320][c] now?[/c] even show up now? even show up now? I[00:21:29.760][c] mean,[/c][00:21:29.919][c] I[/c][00:21:30.080][c] think[/c][00:21:30.240][c] the[/c][00:21:30.400][c] base[/c][00:21:30.720][c] case[/c][00:21:30.960][c] for[/c][00:21:31.120][c] me[/c][00:21:31.280][c] is[/c] I mean, I think the base case for me is I mean, I think the base case for me is that[00:21:31.600][c] the[/c][00:21:31.760][c] low[/c][00:21:32.000][c] will[/c][00:21:32.159][c] be[/c][00:21:32.320][c] in[/c][00:21:32.480][c] October.[/c][00:21:33.200][c] Um,[/c] that the low will be in October. Um, that the low will be in October. Um, because,[00:21:34.400][c] you[/c][00:21:34.559][c] know,[/c][00:21:34.720][c] the[/c][00:21:34.880][c] last[/c][00:21:35.039][c] two[/c][00:21:35.200][c] bare[/c] because, you know, the last two bare because, you know, the last two bare markets[00:21:35.919][c] were[/c][00:21:36.640][c] essentially[/c][00:21:36.960][c] one[/c][00:21:37.200][c] year[/c][00:21:37.440][c] long.[/c] markets were essentially one year long. markets were essentially one year long. The[00:21:38.320][c] last[/c][00:21:38.480][c] one[/c][00:21:38.559][c] was[/c][00:21:38.799][c] November[/c][00:21:39.280][c] 2021[/c][00:21:39.840][c] to[/c] The last one was November 2021 to The last one was November 2021 to November[00:21:40.400][c] 2022.[/c][00:21:41.039][c] The[/c][00:21:41.200][c] one[/c][00:21:41.360][c] before[/c][00:21:41.520][c] that[/c][00:21:41.679][c] was[/c] November 2022. The one before that was November 2022. The one before that was December[00:21:42.400][c] 2017[/c][00:21:42.960][c] to[/c][00:21:43.200][c] December[/c][00:21:43.520][c] 2018.[/c][00:21:44.640][c] And[/c] December 2017 to December 2018. And December 2017 to December 2018. And usually[00:21:45.840][c] in[/c][00:21:46.080][c] the[/c][00:21:46.320][c] summer[/c][00:21:46.640][c] months,[/c][00:21:47.200][c] things[/c][00:21:47.520][c] get[/c] usually in the summer months, things get usually in the summer months, things get relatively[00:21:48.640][c] people[/c][00:21:48.960][c] get[/c][00:21:49.120][c] relatively[/c] relatively people get relatively relatively people get relatively complacent[00:21:50.159][c] and[/c][00:21:50.480][c] nothing[/c][00:21:50.799][c] really[/c][00:21:51.120][c] happens.[/c] complacent and nothing really happens. complacent and nothing really happens. And[00:21:52.000][c] then[/c][00:21:52.159][c] there's[/c][00:21:52.400][c] a[/c][00:21:52.559][c] drop[/c][00:21:52.880][c] in[/c][00:21:53.039][c] Q4[/c][00:21:53.600][c] and[/c][00:21:53.760][c] then[/c] And then there's a drop in Q4 and then And then there's a drop in Q4 and then the[00:21:54.080][c] cycle[/c][00:21:54.400][c] resets[/c][00:21:54.720][c] and[/c][00:21:54.880][c] then[/c][00:21:55.039][c] we[/c][00:21:55.200][c] start[/c] the cycle resets and then we start the cycle resets and then we start again.[00:21:55.840][c] So,[/c][00:21:56.640][c] the[/c][00:21:56.880][c] most[/c][00:21:57.200][c] obvious[/c][00:21:57.679][c] time[/c][00:21:58.000][c] frame[/c] again. So, the most obvious time frame again. So, the most obvious time frame to[00:21:59.039][c] me[/c][00:21:59.360][c] would[/c][00:21:59.600][c] be[/c][00:21:59.840][c] in[/c][00:22:00.000][c] the[/c][00:22:00.159][c] fourth[/c][00:22:00.480][c] quarter[/c][00:22:00.799][c] of[/c] to me would be in the fourth quarter of to me would be in the fourth quarter of this[00:22:01.200][c] year,[/c][00:22:01.919][c] just[/c][00:22:02.159][c] like[/c][00:22:02.320][c] the[/c][00:22:02.559][c] most[/c][00:22:02.720][c] obvious[/c] this year, just like the most obvious this year, just like the most obvious time[00:22:03.280][c] to[/c][00:22:03.520][c] get[/c][00:22:03.679][c] out[/c][00:22:03.840][c] of[/c][00:22:04.000][c] crypto[/c][00:22:04.559][c] was[/c][00:22:04.799][c] the[/c][00:22:04.960][c] fourth[/c] time to get out of crypto was the fourth time to get out of crypto was the fourth quarter[00:22:05.600][c] of[/c][00:22:06.159][c] last[/c][00:22:06.400][c] year.[/c][00:22:07.120][c] Um,[/c][00:22:08.080][c] but[/c][00:22:08.400][c] there[/c][00:22:08.720][c] are[/c] quarter of last year. Um, but there are quarter of last year. Um, but there are there[00:22:09.360][c] are[/c][00:22:09.679][c] scenarios[/c][00:22:10.159][c] where[/c][00:22:10.320][c] I[/c][00:22:10.480][c] I[/c][00:22:10.720][c] could[/c][00:22:10.880][c] see[/c] there are scenarios where I I could see there are scenarios where I I could see myself[00:22:11.440][c] changing[/c][00:22:11.679][c] my[/c][00:22:11.919][c] view.[/c][00:22:12.320][c] For[/c][00:22:12.559][c] instance,[/c] myself changing my view. For instance, myself changing my view. For instance, if[00:22:13.600][c] if[/c][00:22:14.000][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:22:14.720][c] were[/c][00:22:14.960][c] to[/c][00:22:15.360][c] have[/c][00:22:15.520][c] a[/c][00:22:15.760][c] massive[/c] if if Bitcoin were to have a massive if if Bitcoin were to have a massive capitulation,[00:22:16.880][c] let's[/c][00:22:17.039][c] say[/c][00:22:17.120][c] it[/c][00:22:17.280][c] drops[/c][00:22:17.520][c] another[/c] capitulation, let's say it drops another capitulation, let's say it drops another 50%[00:22:18.559][c] or[/c][00:22:18.880][c] something[/c][00:22:19.440][c] by[/c][00:22:19.840][c] by[/c][00:22:20.080][c] the[/c][00:22:20.320][c] summer,[/c][00:22:21.120][c] that[/c] 50% or something by by the summer, that 50% or something by by the summer, that might[00:22:21.600][c] be[/c][00:22:21.760][c] a[/c][00:22:22.000][c] reason[/c][00:22:22.159][c] to[/c][00:22:22.400][c] just[/c][00:22:22.559][c] go[/c][00:22:22.720][c] ahead[/c][00:22:22.960][c] and[/c] might be a reason to just go ahead and might be a reason to just go ahead and get[00:22:23.360][c] bullish[/c][00:22:23.919][c] rather[/c][00:22:24.240][c] than[/c][00:22:24.400][c] waiting[/c][00:22:24.720][c] until[/c] get bullish rather than waiting until get bullish rather than waiting until October.[00:22:26.000][c] Even[/c][00:22:26.240][c] in[/c][00:22:26.400][c] the[/c][00:22:26.640][c] 70s,[/c][00:22:27.360][c] if[/c][00:22:27.600][c] you[/c][00:22:27.679][c] look[/c][00:22:27.840][c] at[/c] October. Even in the 70s, if you look at October. Even in the 70s, if you look at uh[00:22:28.240][c] the[/c][00:22:28.480][c] S&P,[/c][00:22:29.840][c] while[/c][00:22:30.159][c] most[/c][00:22:30.400][c] of[/c][00:22:30.559][c] the[/c][00:22:30.720][c] time[/c][00:22:30.960][c] it[/c] uh the S&P, while most of the time it uh the S&P, while most of the time it would[00:22:31.280][c] bottom[/c][00:22:31.600][c] out[/c][00:22:31.760][c] in[/c][00:22:31.919][c] Q3[/c][00:22:32.400][c] or[/c][00:22:32.559][c] Q4,[/c][00:22:33.440][c] in[/c][00:22:33.760][c] 1970,[/c] would bottom out in Q3 or Q4, in 1970, would bottom out in Q3 or Q4, in 1970, the[00:22:34.720][c] S&P[/c][00:22:35.280][c] actually[/c][00:22:35.520][c] bottomed[/c][00:22:35.919][c] in[/c][00:22:36.080][c] 19[/c][00:22:36.640][c] in[/c][00:22:36.799][c] in[/c] the S&P actually bottomed in 19 in in the S&P actually bottomed in 19 in in May[00:22:37.760][c] of[/c][00:22:38.080][c] 1970[/c][00:22:38.880][c] rather[/c][00:22:39.200][c] than[/c][00:22:39.440][c] later[/c][00:22:39.760][c] that[/c][00:22:40.000][c] year.[/c] May of 1970 rather than later that year. May of 1970 rather than later that year. And[00:22:40.559][c] that[/c][00:22:40.799][c] also[/c][00:22:41.039][c] corresponded[/c][00:22:41.760][c] to[/c][00:22:41.919][c] a[/c][00:22:42.159][c] time[/c] And that also corresponded to a time And that also corresponded to a time when[00:22:43.120][c] they[/c][00:22:43.360][c] replaced[/c][00:22:43.679][c] the[/c][00:22:43.840][c] chair[/c][00:22:44.080][c] of[/c][00:22:44.159][c] the[/c] when they replaced the chair of the when they replaced the chair of the Federal[00:22:44.559][c] Reserve[/c][00:22:44.880][c] with[/c][00:22:45.120][c] someone[/c][00:22:45.360][c] who[/c][00:22:45.520][c] was[/c] Federal Reserve with someone who was Federal Reserve with someone who was really[00:22:45.840][c] doubbish[/c][00:22:46.320][c] and[/c][00:22:46.559][c] that[/c][00:22:46.720][c] was[/c][00:22:47.280][c] um[/c][00:22:47.840][c] I[/c] really doubbish and that was um I really doubbish and that was um I believe[00:22:48.320][c] it[/c][00:22:48.559][c] was[/c][00:22:49.360][c] um[/c][00:22:50.240][c] Arthur[/c][00:22:50.720][c] Burns[/c][00:22:51.280][c] they[/c][00:22:51.440][c] they[/c] believe it was um Arthur Burns they they believe it was um Arthur Burns they they put[00:22:51.919][c] in[/c][00:22:52.400][c] and[/c][00:22:52.720][c] he[/c][00:22:52.880][c] was[/c][00:22:52.960][c] very[/c][00:22:53.200][c] doubbish[/c][00:22:53.600][c] and[/c][00:22:53.760][c] then[/c] put in and he was very doubbish and then put in and he was very doubbish and then the[00:22:54.080][c] market[/c][00:22:54.320][c] ended[/c][00:22:54.559][c] up[/c][00:22:54.720][c] bottoming[/c][00:22:55.280][c] in[/c][00:22:55.600][c] May[/c] the market ended up bottoming in May the market ended up bottoming in May rather[00:22:56.640][c] than[/c][00:22:56.880][c] later[/c][00:22:57.120][c] that[/c][00:22:57.360][c] year.[/c][00:22:57.600][c] So[/c][00:22:57.840][c] we[/c][00:22:58.000][c] know[/c] rather than later that year. So we know rather than later that year. So we know that[00:22:58.240][c] Pal[/c][00:22:58.559][c] is[/c][00:22:58.720][c] likely[/c][00:22:59.039][c] going[/c][00:22:59.120][c] to[/c][00:22:59.200][c] get[/c][00:22:59.360][c] replaced[/c] that Pal is likely going to get replaced that Pal is likely going to get replaced in[00:23:00.559][c] May[/c][00:23:00.799][c] of[/c][00:23:01.039][c] 2026[/c][00:23:01.760][c] with[/c][00:23:02.080][c] probably[/c][00:23:02.320][c] someone[/c] in May of 2026 with probably someone in May of 2026 with probably someone who's[00:23:02.799][c] a[/c][00:23:02.960][c] lot[/c][00:23:03.039][c] more[/c][00:23:03.200][c] doubbish.[/c][00:23:04.080][c] Perhaps[/c][00:23:04.480][c] that[/c] who's a lot more doubbish. Perhaps that who's a lot more doubbish. Perhaps that could[00:23:04.880][c] have[/c][00:23:05.039][c] some[/c][00:23:05.280][c] type[/c][00:23:05.440][c] of[/c][00:23:05.600][c] effect.[/c][00:23:06.080][c] But[/c][00:23:06.320][c] even[/c] could have some type of effect. But even could have some type of effect. But even back[00:23:06.720][c] then[/c][00:23:06.880][c] when[/c][00:23:07.120][c] he[/c][00:23:07.360][c] was[/c][00:23:07.520][c] replaced,[/c][00:23:08.320][c] I[/c][00:23:08.559][c] think[/c] back then when he was replaced, I think back then when he was replaced, I think he[00:23:08.880][c] was[/c][00:23:09.039][c] replaced[/c][00:23:09.360][c] in[/c][00:23:09.600][c] January[/c][00:23:10.080][c] and[/c][00:23:10.320][c] the[/c] he was replaced in January and the he was replaced in January and the market[00:23:10.799][c] bottomed[/c][00:23:11.120][c] a[/c][00:23:11.280][c] few[/c][00:23:11.360][c] months[/c][00:23:11.600][c] later.[/c][00:23:12.000][c] So[/c] market bottomed a few months later. So market bottomed a few months later. So perhaps[00:23:13.039][c] it's[/c][00:23:13.280][c] just[/c][00:23:13.440][c] the[/c][00:23:13.600][c] same[/c][00:23:13.760][c] where[/c][00:23:14.159][c] Pal's[/c] perhaps it's just the same where Pal's perhaps it's just the same where Pal's replaced[00:23:14.880][c] in[/c][00:23:15.039][c] May,[/c][00:23:15.360][c] maybe[/c][00:23:15.520][c] the[/c][00:23:15.679][c] market[/c][00:23:15.919][c] just[/c] replaced in May, maybe the market just replaced in May, maybe the market just bottoms[00:23:16.400][c] a[/c][00:23:16.480][c] few[/c][00:23:16.640][c] months[/c][00:23:16.720][c] later[/c][00:23:16.880][c] and[/c][00:23:17.039][c] it[/c][00:23:17.200][c] just[/c] bottoms a few months later and it just bottoms a few months later and it just ends[00:23:17.440][c] up[/c][00:23:17.600][c] lining[/c][00:23:17.840][c] with[/c][00:23:18.000][c] October[/c][00:23:18.480][c] anyways.[/c][00:23:19.120][c] So[/c] ends up lining with October anyways. So ends up lining with October anyways. So I[00:23:19.919][c] would[/c][00:23:20.080][c] say[/c][00:23:20.240][c] that[/c][00:23:20.480][c] the[/c][00:23:20.640][c] most[/c][00:23:20.880][c] likely[/c][00:23:21.200][c] time[/c][00:23:21.360][c] to[/c] I would say that the most likely time to I would say that the most likely time to back[00:23:21.760][c] up[/c][00:23:21.840][c] the[/c][00:23:22.080][c] truck[/c][00:23:22.320][c] would[/c][00:23:22.480][c] be[/c][00:23:22.640][c] Q4[/c][00:23:23.600][c] of[/c][00:23:23.919][c] this[/c] back up the truck would be Q4 of this back up the truck would be Q4 of this year.[00:23:25.039][c] There[/c][00:23:25.280][c] could[/c][00:23:25.440][c] be[/c][00:23:25.600][c] a[/c][00:23:25.840][c] scenario[/c][00:23:26.159][c] to[/c][00:23:26.400][c] back[/c] year. There could be a scenario to back year. There could be a scenario to back it[00:23:26.720][c] up[/c][00:23:26.880][c] earlier[/c][00:23:27.200][c] than[/c][00:23:27.360][c] that,[/c][00:23:27.600][c] but[/c][00:23:27.760][c] I[/c][00:23:27.840][c] would[/c][00:23:28.000][c] I[/c] it up earlier than that, but I would I it up earlier than that, but I would I would[00:23:28.320][c] have[/c][00:23:28.480][c] to[/c][00:23:28.559][c] see[/c][00:23:28.720][c] a[/c][00:23:28.880][c] big[/c][00:23:29.039][c] capitulation[/c] would have to see a big capitulation would have to see a big capitulation um[00:23:31.440][c] that[/c][00:23:31.679][c] would[/c][00:23:31.840][c] then[/c][00:23:32.080][c] make[/c][00:23:32.400][c] that[/c][00:23:32.559][c] that[/c][00:23:32.720][c] would[/c] um that would then make that that would um that would then make that that would then[00:23:33.039][c] trigger[/c][00:23:33.280][c] all[/c][00:23:33.360][c] these[/c][00:23:33.600][c] indicators[/c][00:23:34.000][c] we[/c] then trigger all these indicators we then trigger all these indicators we talked[00:23:34.400][c] about[/c][00:23:34.559][c] earlier,[/c][00:23:34.880][c] right?[/c][00:23:35.200][c] would[/c][00:23:35.440][c] say,[/c] talked about earlier, right? would say, talked about earlier, right? would say, \"All[00:23:35.600][c] right,[/c][00:23:35.840][c] look,[/c][00:23:36.000][c] we're[/c][00:23:36.159][c] below[/c][00:23:36.400][c] these[/c] \"All right, look, we're below these \"All right, look, we're below these prices[00:23:36.799][c] that[/c][00:23:36.960][c] we've[/c][00:23:37.280][c] historically[/c][00:23:37.679][c] bottomed[/c] prices that we've historically bottomed prices that we've historically bottomed out.[00:23:38.480][c] Therefore,[/c][00:23:38.720][c] it[/c][00:23:38.960][c] makes[/c][00:23:39.120][c] sense[/c][00:23:39.280][c] to[/c][00:23:39.440][c] start[/c] out. Therefore, it makes sense to start out. Therefore, it makes sense to start looking[00:23:39.840][c] for[/c][00:23:40.000][c] a[/c][00:23:40.159][c] more[/c][00:23:40.320][c] macro[/c][00:23:40.720][c] low.\"[/c] looking for a more macro low.\" looking for a more macro low.\" >> Okay,[00:23:42.240][c] wonderful,[/c][00:23:42.720][c] Ben.[/c][00:23:43.120][c] Very[/c][00:23:43.360][c] insightful.[/c] >> Okay, wonderful, Ben. Very insightful. >> Okay, wonderful, Ben. Very insightful. And[00:23:44.880][c] can[/c][00:23:45.120][c] you[/c][00:23:45.280][c] tell[/c][00:23:45.360][c] us[/c][00:23:45.520][c] a[/c][00:23:45.760][c] bit[/c][00:23:46.000][c] about[/c][00:23:46.480][c] your[/c] And can you tell us a bit about your And can you tell us a bit about your background[00:23:47.520][c] here[/c][00:23:47.760][c] as[/c][00:23:47.919][c] well,[/c][00:23:48.159][c] just[/c][00:23:48.320][c] to[/c][00:23:48.480][c] help[/c] background here as well, just to help background here as well, just to help contextualize[00:23:49.280][c] all[/c][00:23:49.520][c] of[/c][00:23:49.600][c] this?[/c][00:23:49.840][c] What[/c][00:23:50.000][c] did[/c][00:23:50.159][c] you[/c] contextualize all of this? What did you contextualize all of this? What did you study[00:23:50.559][c] in[/c][00:23:50.799][c] school?[/c][00:23:51.440][c] Where[/c][00:23:51.600][c] did[/c][00:23:51.760][c] it[/c][00:23:51.919][c] take[/c][00:23:52.080][c] you[/c] study in school? Where did it take you study in school? Where did it take you professionally[00:23:53.120][c] initially?[/c][00:23:53.840][c] And[/c][00:23:54.080][c] what[/c][00:23:54.320][c] led[/c] professionally initially? And what led professionally initially? And what led to[00:23:54.720][c] your[/c][00:23:54.960][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:23:55.440][c] and[/c][00:23:55.760][c] crypto[/c][00:23:56.240][c] aha[/c][00:23:56.720][c] moment[/c][00:23:56.960][c] in[/c] to your Bitcoin and crypto aha moment in to your Bitcoin and crypto aha moment in the[00:23:57.360][c] first[/c][00:23:57.520][c] place?[/c][00:23:58.480][c] Yeah,[/c][00:23:58.640][c] I[/c][00:23:58.799][c] mean[/c][00:23:58.960][c] so[/c][00:23:59.120][c] my[/c] the first place? Yeah, I mean so my the first place? Yeah, I mean so my undergrad[00:23:59.760][c] was[/c][00:23:59.919][c] in[/c][00:24:00.080][c] mathematics[/c][00:24:00.640][c] and[/c][00:24:00.799][c] I[/c][00:24:00.960][c] I[/c][00:24:01.200][c] did[/c] undergrad was in mathematics and I I did undergrad was in mathematics and I I did a[00:24:01.440][c] physics[/c][00:24:01.760][c] minor[/c][00:24:02.000][c] and[/c][00:24:02.240][c] when[/c][00:24:02.400][c] I[/c][00:24:02.480][c] was[/c][00:24:02.559][c] in[/c] a physics minor and when I was in a physics minor and when I was in studying[00:24:03.280][c] math,[/c][00:24:04.080][c] you[/c][00:24:04.240][c] know,[/c][00:24:04.320][c] I[/c][00:24:04.480][c] I[/c][00:24:05.120][c] took[/c][00:24:05.360][c] a[/c] studying math, you know, I I took a studying math, you know, I I took a cryptography[00:24:06.159][c] class[/c][00:24:06.400][c] and[/c][00:24:06.559][c] it[/c][00:24:06.720][c] was[/c][00:24:06.799][c] during[/c] cryptography class and it was during cryptography class and it was during that[00:24:07.200][c] cryptography[/c][00:24:07.760][c] class[/c][00:24:07.919][c] that[/c][00:24:08.159][c] I[/c][00:24:08.320][c] got[/c] that cryptography class that I got that cryptography class that I got interested.[00:24:08.720][c] I[/c][00:24:08.880][c] mean,[/c][00:24:09.039][c] I[/c][00:24:09.200][c] learned[/c][00:24:09.360][c] about[/c] interested. I mean, I learned about interested. I mean, I learned about Bitcoin,[00:24:10.320][c] not[/c][00:24:10.559][c] through[/c][00:24:10.720][c] the[/c][00:24:10.960][c] cryptography[/c] Bitcoin, not through the cryptography Bitcoin, not through the cryptography class,[00:24:11.760][c] but[/c][00:24:12.000][c] just[/c][00:24:12.159][c] because[/c][00:24:12.320][c] I[/c][00:24:12.480][c] was[/c][00:24:12.640][c] doing[/c] class, but just because I was doing class, but just because I was doing cryptography[00:24:13.520][c] related[/c][00:24:13.840][c] work[/c][00:24:14.000][c] and[/c][00:24:14.240][c] then[/c] cryptography related work and then cryptography related work and then naturally[00:24:14.880][c] I[/c][00:24:15.039][c] just[/c][00:24:15.200][c] learned[/c][00:24:15.440][c] about[/c][00:24:15.600][c] Bitcoin.[/c] naturally I just learned about Bitcoin. naturally I just learned about Bitcoin. And[00:24:16.720][c] then[/c][00:24:17.200][c] um[/c][00:24:17.760][c] I[/c][00:24:18.000][c] I[/c][00:24:18.320][c] went[/c][00:24:18.480][c] to[/c][00:24:18.640][c] grad[/c][00:24:18.960][c] school.[/c][00:24:19.200][c] I[/c] And then um I I went to grad school. I And then um I I went to grad school. I got[00:24:19.520][c] a[/c][00:24:19.679][c] master's[/c][00:24:20.159][c] and[/c][00:24:20.400][c] a[/c][00:24:20.640][c] PhD[/c][00:24:21.120][c] in[/c][00:24:21.279][c] nuclear[/c] got a master's and a PhD in nuclear got a master's and a PhD in nuclear engineering.[00:24:22.640][c] And[/c][00:24:22.880][c] when[/c][00:24:23.120][c] I[/c][00:24:23.279][c] was[/c][00:24:23.440][c] there,[/c][00:24:23.760][c] I[/c] engineering. And when I was there, I engineering. And when I was there, I was,[00:24:24.240][c] you[/c][00:24:24.320][c] know,[/c][00:24:24.799][c] with[/c][00:24:24.960][c] a[/c][00:24:25.120][c] lot[/c][00:24:25.200][c] of[/c][00:24:25.279][c] other[/c][00:24:25.440][c] grad[/c] was, you know, with a lot of other grad was, you know, with a lot of other grad students[00:24:26.000][c] and[/c][00:24:26.159][c] we[/c][00:24:26.320][c] talked[/c][00:24:26.559][c] about[/c][00:24:26.799][c] crypto[/c][00:24:27.200][c] a[/c] students and we talked about crypto a students and we talked about crypto a lot[00:24:27.520][c] and[/c][00:24:27.679][c] and[/c][00:24:27.919][c] I[/c][00:24:28.159][c] remember[/c][00:24:28.480][c] vividly[/c][00:24:28.880][c] the[/c][00:24:29.120][c] 2013[/c] lot and and I remember vividly the 2013 lot and and I remember vividly the 2013 bull[00:24:30.559][c] market[/c][00:24:30.799][c] and[/c][00:24:31.039][c] how[/c][00:24:31.279][c] it[/c][00:24:31.440][c] came[/c][00:24:31.600][c] crashing[/c] bull market and how it came crashing bull market and how it came crashing down[00:24:32.240][c] after[/c][00:24:32.480][c] that.[/c][00:24:32.799][c] And,[/c][00:24:33.200][c] you[/c][00:24:33.360][c] know,[/c][00:24:33.440][c] that[/c] down after that. And, you know, that down after that. And, you know, that helped[00:24:33.919][c] start[/c][00:24:34.159][c] to[/c][00:24:34.320][c] really[/c][00:24:34.640][c] shape[/c][00:24:34.960][c] my[/c][00:24:35.120][c] views[/c][00:24:35.520][c] on[/c] helped start to really shape my views on helped start to really shape my views on on[00:24:36.240][c] the[/c][00:24:36.400][c] industry.[/c][00:24:37.279][c] Um,[/c][00:24:37.919][c] and[/c][00:24:38.080][c] then[/c][00:24:38.240][c] after[/c][00:24:38.480][c] I[/c] on the industry. Um, and then after I on the industry. Um, and then after I graduated[00:24:39.039][c] with[/c][00:24:39.200][c] my[/c][00:24:39.360][c] PhD,[/c][00:24:39.919][c] I[/c][00:24:40.159][c] then[/c][00:24:40.480][c] worked[/c][00:24:40.720][c] as[/c] graduated with my PhD, I then worked as graduated with my PhD, I then worked as a[00:24:41.039][c] posttock.[/c][00:24:42.320][c] uh[/c][00:24:42.480][c] my[/c][00:24:42.640][c] my[/c][00:24:43.039][c] PhD[/c][00:24:43.840][c] it[/c][00:24:44.080][c] was[/c][00:24:44.240][c] was[/c] a posttock. uh my my PhD it was was a posttock. uh my my PhD it was was actually[00:24:44.799][c] in[/c][00:24:45.279][c] it[/c][00:24:45.440][c] was[/c][00:24:45.520][c] in[/c][00:24:45.679][c] nuclear[/c] actually in it was in nuclear actually in it was in nuclear engineering[00:24:46.559][c] but[/c][00:24:46.799][c] the[/c][00:24:47.039][c] the[/c][00:24:47.520][c] dissertation[/c] engineering but the the dissertation engineering but the the dissertation that[00:24:48.320][c] I[/c][00:24:48.480][c] wrote[/c][00:24:48.960][c] was[/c][00:24:49.200][c] on[/c][00:24:49.440][c] radiation[/c][00:24:50.000][c] damage[/c][00:24:50.480][c] in[/c] that I wrote was on radiation damage in that I wrote was on radiation damage in ceramics[00:24:51.360][c] using[/c][00:24:51.679][c] molecular[/c][00:24:52.159][c] dynamic[/c] ceramics using molecular dynamic ceramics using molecular dynamic simulations[00:24:53.279][c] and[/c][00:24:53.520][c] insitue[/c][00:24:54.159][c] transmission[/c] simulations and insitue transmission simulations and insitue transmission electron[00:24:54.960][c] microscopy[/c][00:24:55.679][c] but[/c][00:24:55.919][c] after[/c][00:24:56.080][c] that[/c][00:24:56.320][c] I[/c] electron microscopy but after that I electron microscopy but after that I then[00:24:56.720][c] went[/c][00:24:56.880][c] over[/c][00:24:57.039][c] to[/c][00:24:57.200][c] the[/c][00:24:57.360][c] national[/c][00:24:57.760][c] labs[/c] then went over to the national labs then went over to the national labs where[00:24:58.720][c] I[/c][00:24:58.960][c] did[/c][00:24:59.039][c] my[/c][00:24:59.279][c] posttock[/c][00:24:59.760][c] in[/c][00:25:00.080][c] high[/c][00:25:00.320][c] energy[/c] where I did my posttock in high energy where I did my posttock in high energy density[00:25:01.200][c] physics[/c][00:25:02.159][c] and[/c][00:25:02.480][c] I[/c][00:25:02.880][c] then[/c][00:25:03.120][c] became[/c][00:25:03.520][c] a[/c] density physics and I then became a density physics and I then became a staff[00:25:04.000][c] member[/c][00:25:04.320][c] I[/c][00:25:04.480][c] I[/c][00:25:04.640][c] I[/c][00:25:05.039][c] was[/c][00:25:05.200][c] promoted[/c][00:25:05.520][c] from[/c][00:25:05.679][c] a[/c] staff member I I I was promoted from a staff member I I I was promoted from a postoc[00:25:06.640][c] but[/c][00:25:06.960][c] I[/c][00:25:07.279][c] I'd[/c][00:25:07.520][c] already[/c][00:25:07.840][c] launched[/c][00:25:08.480][c] this[/c] postoc but I I'd already launched this postoc but I I'd already launched this company[00:25:09.200][c] back[/c][00:25:09.520][c] in[/c][00:25:10.000][c] 2020[/c] company back in 2020 company back in 2020 And[00:25:12.000][c] so[/c][00:25:12.480][c] I[/c][00:25:12.799][c] then[/c][00:25:12.960][c] decided[/c][00:25:13.279][c] to[/c][00:25:13.440][c] quit[/c][00:25:13.600][c] my[/c][00:25:13.760][c] day[/c][00:25:14.000][c] job[/c] And so I then decided to quit my day job And so I then decided to quit my day job and[00:25:14.880][c] and[/c][00:25:15.200][c] then[/c][00:25:15.360][c] just[/c][00:25:15.600][c] focus[/c][00:25:15.919][c] on[/c][00:25:16.080][c] this[/c] and and then just focus on this and and then just focus on this full-time[00:25:17.440][c] um[/c][00:25:17.600][c] about[/c][00:25:17.919][c] 5[/c][00:25:18.159][c] years[/c][00:25:18.320][c] ago[/c][00:25:18.640][c] now.[/c][00:25:19.120][c] And[/c] full-time um about 5 years ago now. And full-time um about 5 years ago now. And I[00:25:19.600][c] guess[/c][00:25:19.840][c] the[/c][00:25:20.000][c] the[/c][00:25:20.240][c] rest[/c][00:25:20.400][c] is[/c][00:25:20.640][c] history.[/c] I guess the the rest is history. I guess the the rest is history. >> Wonderful.[00:25:22.559][c] And[/c][00:25:22.960][c] last[/c][00:25:23.279][c] thing[/c][00:25:23.440][c] here,[/c][00:25:23.760][c] Ben,[/c][00:25:24.320][c] uh[/c] >> Wonderful. And last thing here, Ben, uh >> Wonderful. And last thing here, Ben, uh and[00:25:24.640][c] I[/c][00:25:24.799][c] think[/c][00:25:24.880][c] this[/c][00:25:25.120][c] might[/c][00:25:25.360][c] be[/c][00:25:25.520][c] the[/c][00:25:25.760][c] most[/c] and I think this might be the most and I think this might be the most important[00:25:26.320][c] thing[/c][00:25:26.480][c] we[/c][00:25:26.880][c] actually[/c][00:25:27.200][c] talk[/c][00:25:27.440][c] about[/c] important thing we actually talk about important thing we actually talk about today.[00:25:28.320][c] Uh,[/c][00:25:28.640][c] one[/c][00:25:28.799][c] of[/c][00:25:28.960][c] your[/c][00:25:29.120][c] messages,[/c] today. Uh, one of your messages, today. Uh, one of your messages, especially[00:25:30.240][c] for[/c][00:25:30.559][c] millennials[/c][00:25:31.279][c] watching[/c] especially for millennials watching especially for millennials watching this,[00:25:31.919][c] is[/c][00:25:32.080][c] that[/c][00:25:32.400][c] people[/c][00:25:32.720][c] should[/c][00:25:32.960][c] be[/c] this, is that people should be this, is that people should be scrupulous[00:25:34.080][c] about[/c][00:25:34.480][c] managing[/c][00:25:34.960][c] their[/c][00:25:35.200][c] finances[/c] scrupulous about managing their finances scrupulous about managing their finances over[00:25:36.080][c] the[/c][00:25:36.240][c] next[/c][00:25:36.480][c] one[/c][00:25:36.720][c] to[/c][00:25:36.960][c] three[/c][00:25:37.200][c] years[/c][00:25:37.919][c] because[/c] over the next one to three years because over the next one to three years because if[00:25:38.400][c] the[/c][00:25:38.559][c] business[/c][00:25:38.799][c] cycle[/c][00:25:39.279][c] ends[/c][00:25:39.679][c] and[/c][00:25:39.919][c] we[/c][00:25:40.080][c] get[/c][00:25:40.159][c] a[/c] if the business cycle ends and we get a if the business cycle ends and we get a real[00:25:40.640][c] recession,[/c][00:25:41.279][c] a[/c][00:25:41.520][c] lot[/c][00:25:41.600][c] of[/c][00:25:41.760][c] people[/c][00:25:41.919][c] are[/c] real recession, a lot of people are real recession, a lot of people are going[00:25:42.240][c] to[/c][00:25:42.400][c] be,[/c][00:25:42.799][c] you[/c][00:25:42.960][c] know,[/c][00:25:43.120][c] caught[/c][00:25:43.440][c] off[/c][00:25:43.600][c] guard.[/c] going to be, you know, caught off guard. going to be, you know, caught off guard. How[00:25:44.559][c] does[/c][00:25:44.720][c] that[/c][00:25:44.960][c] picture[/c][00:25:45.279][c] look[/c][00:25:45.600][c] right[/c][00:25:45.760][c] now?[/c] How does that picture look right now? How does that picture look right now? And[00:25:46.240][c] for[/c][00:25:46.480][c] someone[/c][00:25:46.799][c] watching[/c][00:25:47.039][c] this[/c][00:25:47.279][c] who[/c][00:25:47.600][c] hasn't[/c] And for someone watching this who hasn't And for someone watching this who hasn't started[00:25:48.240][c] preparing,[/c][00:25:49.120][c] what[/c][00:25:49.360][c] does[/c][00:25:49.520][c] that[/c] started preparing, what does that started preparing, what does that process[00:25:50.240][c] actually[/c][00:25:50.720][c] look[/c][00:25:50.880][c] like?[/c][00:25:51.360][c] Because[/c][00:25:51.600][c] I[/c] process actually look like? Because I process actually look like? Because I think[00:25:51.919][c] a[/c][00:25:52.159][c] lot[/c][00:25:52.240][c] of[/c][00:25:52.320][c] people[/c][00:25:52.720][c] here[/c][00:25:53.200][c] manage[/c][00:25:54.320][c] uh[/c] think a lot of people here manage uh think a lot of people here manage uh their[00:25:54.799][c] finances[/c][00:25:55.440][c] and[/c][00:25:55.760][c] don't[/c][00:25:56.240][c] uh[/c][00:25:56.480][c] necessarily[/c] their finances and don't uh necessarily their finances and don't uh necessarily know[00:25:57.120][c] where[/c][00:25:57.360][c] to[/c][00:25:57.520][c] start.[/c][00:25:57.840][c] So[/c][00:25:58.480][c] curious[/c][00:25:58.799][c] what[/c] know where to start. So curious what know where to start. So curious what your[00:25:59.200][c] take[/c][00:25:59.360][c] on[/c][00:25:59.679][c] and[/c][00:26:00.000][c] view[/c][00:26:00.159][c] on[/c][00:26:00.320][c] that[/c][00:26:00.480][c] is.[/c] your take on and view on that is. your take on and view on that is. >> Right.[00:26:01.200][c] I[/c][00:26:01.360][c] mean[/c][00:26:01.440][c] it[/c][00:26:01.679][c] just[/c][00:26:01.840][c] means[/c][00:26:02.159][c] having[/c][00:26:02.400][c] a[/c] >> Right. I mean it just means having a >> Right. I mean it just means having a well-[00:26:02.720][c] diversified[/c][00:26:03.279][c] portfolio.[/c][00:26:03.919][c] I'm[/c][00:26:04.159][c] not[/c] well- diversified portfolio. I'm not well- diversified portfolio. I'm not suggesting[00:26:04.720][c] that[/c][00:26:04.960][c] you[/c][00:26:05.120][c] can't[/c][00:26:05.279][c] own[/c][00:26:05.520][c] risk[/c] suggesting that you can't own risk suggesting that you can't own risk assets.[00:26:06.400][c] Like[/c][00:26:06.559][c] I[/c][00:26:06.720][c] I'll[/c][00:26:07.039][c] probably[/c][00:26:07.279][c] be[/c][00:26:07.440][c] buying[/c] assets. Like I I'll probably be buying assets. Like I I'll probably be buying Bitcoin[00:26:08.240][c] later[/c][00:26:08.480][c] this[/c][00:26:08.720][c] year[/c][00:26:09.200][c] even[/c][00:26:09.440][c] if[/c][00:26:09.600][c] I[/c][00:26:09.760][c] think[/c] Bitcoin later this year even if I think Bitcoin later this year even if I think a[00:26:10.080][c] recession's[/c][00:26:10.559][c] coming,[/c][00:26:10.960][c] you[/c][00:26:11.039][c] know,[/c][00:26:11.200][c] just[/c] a recession's coming, you know, just a recession's coming, you know, just because[00:26:11.679][c] no[/c][00:26:11.840][c] one[/c][00:26:12.000][c] actually[/c][00:26:12.240][c] knows[/c][00:26:12.480][c] what's[/c] because no one actually knows what's because no one actually knows what's going[00:26:12.799][c] to[/c][00:26:12.960][c] happen.[/c][00:26:13.760][c] Um[/c][00:26:14.960][c] I[/c][00:26:15.279][c] think[/c][00:26:15.440][c] that[/c][00:26:15.840][c] hedging[/c] going to happen. Um I think that hedging going to happen. Um I think that hedging makes[00:26:16.559][c] a[/c][00:26:16.720][c] lot[/c][00:26:16.799][c] of[/c][00:26:16.960][c] sense,[/c][00:26:17.279][c] like[/c][00:26:17.520][c] being[/c] makes a lot of sense, like being makes a lot of sense, like being prepared[00:26:18.159][c] for[/c][00:26:18.400][c] for[/c][00:26:18.720][c] bad[/c][00:26:19.039][c] outcomes.[/c][00:26:19.679][c] And[/c][00:26:20.799][c] one[/c] prepared for for bad outcomes. And one prepared for for bad outcomes. And one of the[00:26:21.200][c] safest[/c][00:26:21.520][c] things[/c][00:26:21.679][c] to[/c][00:26:21.919][c] do[/c][00:26:22.000][c] is[/c][00:26:22.159][c] just[/c][00:26:22.320][c] make[/c] of the safest things to do is just make of the safest things to do is just make sure[00:26:22.559][c] you[/c][00:26:22.799][c] have[/c][00:26:22.880][c] some[/c][00:26:23.120][c] cash[/c][00:26:23.360][c] on[/c][00:26:23.600][c] hand.[/c][00:26:24.240][c] Uh[/c] sure you have some cash on hand. Uh sure you have some cash on hand. Uh because[00:26:24.720][c] if[/c][00:26:24.880][c] there[/c][00:26:25.039][c] ever[/c][00:26:25.279][c] is[/c][00:26:25.440][c] a[/c][00:26:25.600][c] crash[/c][00:26:25.840][c] within[/c] because if there ever is a crash within because if there ever is a crash within the[00:26:26.240][c] next[/c][00:26:26.320][c] two[/c][00:26:26.480][c] to[/c][00:26:26.720][c] three[/c][00:26:26.880][c] years,[/c][00:26:27.120][c] you're[/c] the next two to three years, you're the next two to three years, you're going[00:26:27.360][c] to[/c][00:26:27.440][c] want[/c][00:26:27.600][c] to[/c][00:26:27.679][c] have[/c][00:26:27.840][c] that[/c][00:26:28.559][c] ideally[/c][00:26:28.960][c] to[/c] going to want to have that ideally to going to want to have that ideally to buy[00:26:29.440][c] to[/c][00:26:29.679][c] buy[/c][00:26:29.840][c] that[/c][00:26:30.640][c] because[/c][00:26:31.440][c] then,[/c][00:26:32.000][c] you[/c][00:26:32.159][c] know,[/c] buy to buy that because then, you know, buy to buy that because then, you know, a[00:26:32.480][c] lot[/c][00:26:32.559][c] of[/c][00:26:32.799][c] people[/c][00:26:33.840][c] that[/c][00:26:34.159][c] are[/c][00:26:34.320][c] my[/c][00:26:34.640][c] age[/c][00:26:34.880][c] that[/c][00:26:35.120][c] are[/c] a lot of people that are my age that are a lot of people that are my age that are millennials,[00:26:36.080][c] I[/c][00:26:36.240][c] mean,[/c][00:26:36.400][c] I[/c][00:26:36.480][c] was[/c][00:26:36.640][c] I[/c][00:26:36.880][c] was[/c][00:26:36.960][c] born[/c][00:26:37.120][c] in[/c] millennials, I mean, I was I was born in millennials, I mean, I was I was born in 1990.[00:26:38.480][c] We've[/c][00:26:38.799][c] never[/c][00:26:39.039][c] really[/c][00:26:39.279][c] experienced[/c][00:26:39.919][c] a[/c][00:26:40.080][c] a[/c] 1990. We've never really experienced a a 1990. We've never really experienced a a full-blown[00:26:41.120][c] recession[/c][00:26:41.679][c] before.[/c][00:26:42.640][c] And[/c][00:26:42.880][c] so,[/c][00:26:44.240][c] you[/c] full-blown recession before. And so, you full-blown recession before. And so, you know,[00:26:44.480][c] if[/c][00:26:44.640][c] you[/c][00:26:44.799][c] go[/c][00:26:44.960][c] into[/c][00:26:45.200][c] it[/c][00:26:45.440][c] without[/c] know, if you go into it without know, if you go into it without preparing[00:26:46.159][c] at[/c][00:26:46.400][c] all,[/c][00:26:47.039][c] then[/c][00:26:47.279][c] doesn't[/c][00:26:47.440][c] really[/c] preparing at all, then doesn't really preparing at all, then doesn't really set[00:26:47.840][c] you[/c][00:26:48.080][c] up[/c][00:26:48.480][c] to[/c][00:26:48.799][c] then[/c][00:26:49.279][c] succeed[/c][00:26:49.600][c] in[/c][00:26:49.840][c] the[/c][00:26:50.000][c] next[/c] set you up to then succeed in the next set you up to then succeed in the next business[00:26:50.559][c] cycle[/c][00:26:51.039][c] as[/c][00:26:51.279][c] well.[/c][00:26:51.840][c] If[/c][00:26:52.080][c] you[/c][00:26:52.159][c] go[/c][00:26:52.240][c] in[/c] business cycle as well. If you go in business cycle as well. If you go in preparing[00:26:52.960][c] a[/c][00:26:53.279][c] little[/c][00:26:53.360][c] bit,[/c][00:26:53.919][c] then[/c][00:26:54.159][c] maybe[/c][00:26:54.400][c] you[/c] preparing a little bit, then maybe you preparing a little bit, then maybe you can[00:26:54.799][c] buy[/c][00:26:55.200][c] buy[/c][00:26:55.520][c] some[/c][00:26:55.679][c] cheaper[/c][00:26:56.000][c] assets[/c][00:26:56.480][c] later[/c][00:26:56.720][c] on[/c] can buy buy some cheaper assets later on can buy buy some cheaper assets later on this[00:26:57.200][c] decade[/c][00:26:58.000][c] and[/c][00:26:58.159][c] and[/c][00:26:58.480][c] get[/c][00:26:58.640][c] some[/c][00:26:58.880][c] really[/c][00:26:59.039][c] good[/c] this decade and and get some really good this decade and and get some really good entries[00:26:59.600][c] into[/c][00:26:59.919][c] the[/c][00:27:00.159][c] market.[/c][00:27:00.880][c] But[/c][00:27:01.039][c] that[/c] entries into the market. But that entries into the market. But that doesn't[00:27:01.440][c] mean[/c][00:27:01.600][c] you[/c][00:27:01.840][c] can't[/c][00:27:02.000][c] buy[/c][00:27:02.240][c] risk[/c][00:27:02.480][c] assets[/c] doesn't mean you can't buy risk assets doesn't mean you can't buy risk assets now.[00:27:03.200][c] I[/c][00:27:03.440][c] still[/c][00:27:03.600][c] own[/c][00:27:03.760][c] a[/c][00:27:04.000][c] lot[/c][00:27:04.080][c] of[/c][00:27:04.320][c] assets[/c][00:27:04.799][c] right[/c] now. I still own a lot of assets right now. I still own a lot of assets right now.[00:27:05.520][c] Recently,[/c][00:27:06.000][c] I've[/c][00:27:06.240][c] focused[/c][00:27:06.559][c] a[/c][00:27:06.799][c] lot[/c][00:27:06.960][c] more[/c] now. Recently, I've focused a lot more now. Recently, I've focused a lot more on[00:27:07.520][c] international[/c][00:27:08.159][c] funds[/c][00:27:08.559][c] rather[/c][00:27:08.799][c] than[/c] on international funds rather than on international funds rather than domestic[00:27:09.600][c] because[/c][00:27:09.840][c] I[/c][00:27:10.080][c] think[/c][00:27:10.320][c] we're[/c][00:27:10.559][c] we've[/c] domestic because I think we're we've domestic because I think we're we've kind[00:27:11.039][c] of[/c][00:27:11.520][c] we've[/c][00:27:11.840][c] kind[/c][00:27:12.000][c] of[/c][00:27:12.080][c] entered[/c][00:27:12.400][c] into[/c][00:27:12.960][c] at[/c] kind of we've kind of entered into at kind of we've kind of entered into at least[00:27:13.360][c] a[/c][00:27:13.520][c] brief[/c][00:27:13.760][c] period[/c][00:27:14.000][c] now[/c][00:27:14.159][c] where[/c] least a brief period now where least a brief period now where international[00:27:14.960][c] funds[/c][00:27:15.279][c] are[/c][00:27:15.440][c] outperforming[/c] international funds are outperforming international funds are outperforming domestic[00:27:16.480][c] in[/c][00:27:16.720][c] the[/c][00:27:16.880][c] United[/c][00:27:17.120][c] States,[/c][00:27:17.679][c] which[/c][00:27:17.919][c] is[/c] domestic in the United States, which is domestic in the United States, which is very[00:27:18.240][c] different[/c][00:27:18.480][c] than[/c][00:27:18.640][c] what[/c][00:27:18.799][c] I've[/c][00:27:18.960][c] done[/c][00:27:19.039][c] for[/c] very different than what I've done for very different than what I've done for the[00:27:19.279][c] last[/c][00:27:19.440][c] 10[/c][00:27:19.600][c] to[/c][00:27:19.760][c] 15[/c][00:27:20.000][c] years[/c][00:27:20.159][c] where[/c][00:27:20.400][c] I've[/c][00:27:20.559][c] over[/c] the last 10 to 15 years where I've over the last 10 to 15 years where I've over I've[00:27:21.200][c] always[/c][00:27:21.440][c] been[/c][00:27:21.679][c] overweight[/c][00:27:22.720][c] US[/c][00:27:23.039][c] funds.[/c] I've always been overweight US funds. I've always been overweight US funds. Um,[00:27:24.880][c] I[/c][00:27:25.120][c] generally[/c][00:27:25.440][c] say[/c][00:27:25.600][c] you[/c][00:27:25.840][c] don't[/c][00:27:25.919][c] want[/c][00:27:26.000][c] to[/c] Um, I generally say you don't want to Um, I generally say you don't want to ever[00:27:26.320][c] bet[/c][00:27:26.480][c] against[/c][00:27:26.720][c] the[/c][00:27:26.880][c] United[/c][00:27:27.120][c] States.[/c][00:27:27.440][c] And[/c] ever bet against the United States. And ever bet against the United States. And I[00:27:27.760][c] still[/c][00:27:27.919][c] would[/c][00:27:28.080][c] say[/c][00:27:28.159][c] that[/c][00:27:28.480][c] long[/c][00:27:28.640][c] term,[/c][00:27:28.960][c] you[/c] I still would say that long term, you I still would say that long term, you don't[00:27:29.200][c] want[/c][00:27:29.279][c] to[/c][00:27:29.360][c] bet[/c][00:27:29.600][c] against[/c][00:27:29.760][c] the[/c][00:27:29.919][c] United[/c] don't want to bet against the United don't want to bet against the United States,[00:27:30.720][c] but[/c][00:27:30.880][c] there's[/c][00:27:31.039][c] a[/c][00:27:31.200][c] lot[/c][00:27:31.279][c] of[/c][00:27:31.360][c] uncertainty[/c] States, but there's a lot of uncertainty States, but there's a lot of uncertainty in[00:27:32.320][c] the[/c][00:27:32.480][c] United[/c][00:27:32.720][c] States[/c][00:27:33.039][c] right[/c][00:27:33.200][c] now[/c][00:27:33.760][c] with[/c] in the United States right now with in the United States right now with tariffs[00:27:34.640][c] and[/c][00:27:34.799][c] and[/c][00:27:34.880][c] and[/c][00:27:35.360][c] people[/c][00:27:35.600][c] not[/c][00:27:35.760][c] really[/c] tariffs and and and people not really tariffs and and and people not really sure[00:27:36.159][c] how[/c][00:27:36.320][c] to[/c][00:27:36.480][c] how[/c][00:27:36.720][c] to[/c][00:27:36.799][c] navigate[/c][00:27:37.120][c] that.[/c][00:27:37.279][c] I've[/c] sure how to how to navigate that. I've sure how to how to navigate that. I've met[00:27:37.600][c] a[/c][00:27:37.760][c] lot[/c][00:27:37.840][c] of[/c][00:27:38.000][c] business[/c][00:27:38.240][c] owners[/c][00:27:38.640][c] that[/c][00:27:39.120][c] are[/c] met a lot of business owners that are met a lot of business owners that are essentially[00:27:40.000][c] stuck[/c][00:27:40.559][c] where[/c][00:27:40.799][c] they[/c][00:27:40.960][c] are[/c][00:27:41.200][c] because[/c] essentially stuck where they are because essentially stuck where they are because they[00:27:41.600][c] don't[/c][00:27:41.760][c] really[/c][00:27:42.080][c] want[/c][00:27:42.240][c] to[/c][00:27:42.400][c] expand[/c][00:27:42.720][c] their[/c] they don't really want to expand their they don't really want to expand their business[00:27:43.600][c] at[/c][00:27:43.840][c] the[/c][00:27:44.000][c] current[/c][00:27:44.159][c] time[/c][00:27:44.400][c] because[/c] business at the current time because business at the current time because they[00:27:44.880][c] don't[/c][00:27:44.960][c] know[/c][00:27:45.039][c] if[/c][00:27:45.120][c] they're[/c][00:27:45.279][c] going[/c][00:27:45.360][c] to[/c][00:27:45.440][c] get[/c] they don't know if they're going to get they don't know if they're going to get hit[00:27:45.760][c] with[/c][00:27:45.840][c] a[/c][00:27:46.000][c] tariff[/c][00:27:46.240][c] that[/c][00:27:46.480][c] they're[/c][00:27:46.559][c] not[/c] hit with a tariff that they're not hit with a tariff that they're not expecting[00:27:47.120][c] by[/c][00:27:47.360][c] the[/c][00:27:47.520][c] time[/c][00:27:47.600][c] their[/c][00:27:47.840][c] product[/c] expecting by the time their product expecting by the time their product actually[00:27:48.640][c] enters[/c][00:27:48.960][c] the[/c][00:27:49.200][c] port.[/c][00:27:49.760][c] So[/c][00:27:50.320][c] there's[/c][00:27:50.559][c] a[/c] actually enters the port. So there's a actually enters the port. So there's a lot[00:27:50.799][c] of[/c][00:27:50.880][c] uncertainty[/c][00:27:51.440][c] and[/c][00:27:51.600][c] and[/c][00:27:51.840][c] I've[/c][00:27:52.080][c] sort[/c][00:27:52.240][c] of[/c] lot of uncertainty and and I've sort of lot of uncertainty and and I've sort of geared[00:27:52.799][c] over[/c][00:27:53.200][c] I've[/c][00:27:53.440][c] moved[/c][00:27:53.679][c] over[/c][00:27:54.000][c] a[/c][00:27:54.240][c] lot[/c][00:27:54.320][c] of[/c][00:27:54.399][c] my[/c] geared over I've moved over a lot of my geared over I've moved over a lot of my um[00:27:55.279][c] interest[/c][00:27:55.600][c] recently[/c][00:27:56.000][c] more[/c][00:27:56.240][c] into[/c] um interest recently more into um interest recently more into international[00:27:56.960][c] funds[/c][00:27:57.279][c] that[/c][00:27:57.440][c] are[/c][00:27:57.679][c] actually[/c] international funds that are actually international funds that are actually they've[00:27:58.480][c] been[/c][00:27:58.720][c] outperforming[/c][00:27:59.679][c] domestic[/c][00:28:00.159][c] for[/c] they've been outperforming domestic for they've been outperforming domestic for a[00:28:00.480][c] while[/c][00:28:00.640][c] and[/c][00:28:00.799][c] I[/c][00:28:00.960][c] think[/c][00:28:01.039][c] they[/c][00:28:01.200][c] will[/c][00:28:01.440][c] continue[/c] a while and I think they will continue a while and I think they will continue to[00:28:01.840][c] do[/c][00:28:02.000][c] that.[/c][00:28:02.480][c] There[/c][00:28:02.720][c] might[/c][00:28:02.880][c] be[/c][00:28:02.960][c] a[/c][00:28:03.120][c] little[/c][00:28:03.200][c] bit[/c] to do that. There might be a little bit to do that. There might be a little bit of[00:28:03.440][c] a[/c][00:28:03.679][c] brief[/c][00:28:04.159][c] pause[/c][00:28:04.799][c] soon[/c][00:28:05.120][c] where[/c][00:28:05.440][c] if[/c][00:28:05.600][c] the[/c] of a brief pause soon where if the of a brief pause soon where if the dollar[00:28:06.080][c] rallies[/c][00:28:06.480][c] you[/c][00:28:06.640][c] could[/c][00:28:06.880][c] see[/c][00:28:07.520][c] uh[/c] dollar rallies you could see uh dollar rallies you could see uh international[00:28:08.240][c] funds[/c][00:28:08.640][c] drop[/c][00:28:08.880][c] for[/c][00:28:09.039][c] a[/c][00:28:09.200][c] little[/c] international funds drop for a little international funds drop for a little bit[00:28:09.840][c] but[/c][00:28:10.159][c] I[/c][00:28:10.399][c] still[/c][00:28:10.559][c] think[/c][00:28:10.799][c] international[/c][00:28:11.600][c] has[/c] bit but I still think international has bit but I still think international has been[00:28:12.000][c] the[/c][00:28:12.240][c] better[/c][00:28:12.399][c] place[/c][00:28:12.480][c] to[/c][00:28:12.640][c] be[/c][00:28:12.720][c] and[/c][00:28:12.960][c] I[/c][00:28:13.039][c] think[/c] been the better place to be and I think been the better place to be and I think that[00:28:13.279][c] will[/c][00:28:13.440][c] continue[/c][00:28:13.679][c] to[/c][00:28:14.159][c] be[/c][00:28:14.399][c] that[/c][00:28:14.559][c] way[/c][00:28:14.720][c] for[/c][00:28:15.039][c] at[/c] that will continue to be that way for at that will continue to be that way for at least[00:28:15.520][c] a[/c][00:28:15.679][c] few[/c][00:28:15.840][c] more[/c][00:28:16.000][c] years.[/c][00:28:16.640][c] Um[/c][00:28:16.880][c] and[/c][00:28:17.039][c] then[/c] least a few more years. Um and then least a few more years. Um and then things[00:28:17.520][c] like[/c][00:28:17.760][c] precious[/c][00:28:18.159][c] metals[/c][00:28:19.200][c] um[/c][00:28:19.360][c] you[/c][00:28:19.520][c] know[/c] things like precious metals um you know things like precious metals um you know the[00:28:19.840][c] monetary[/c][00:28:20.320][c] metals[/c][00:28:20.720][c] you[/c][00:28:20.960][c] could[/c][00:28:21.039][c] also[/c][00:28:21.360][c] look[/c] the monetary metals you could also look the monetary metals you could also look at[00:28:22.000][c] at[/c][00:28:22.320][c] other[/c][00:28:22.559][c] types[/c][00:28:22.799][c] of[/c][00:28:23.039][c] thing.[/c][00:28:23.279][c] I[/c][00:28:23.440][c] mean[/c][00:28:23.520][c] I[/c][00:28:23.679][c] I[/c] at at other types of thing. I mean I I at at other types of thing. I mean I I have[00:28:24.320][c] I[/c][00:28:24.480][c] mean[/c][00:28:24.559][c] I'm[/c][00:28:24.720][c] a[/c][00:28:24.880][c] nuclear[/c][00:28:25.200][c] engineer[/c][00:28:25.600][c] right[/c] have I mean I'm a nuclear engineer right have I mean I'm a nuclear engineer right so[00:28:25.840][c] I've[/c][00:28:26.320][c] generally[/c][00:28:26.640][c] had[/c][00:28:26.799][c] a[/c][00:28:26.960][c] position[/c][00:28:27.200][c] in[/c][00:28:27.360][c] in[/c] so I've generally had a position in in so I've generally had a position in in uranium[00:28:28.240][c] just[/c][00:28:28.480][c] because[/c][00:28:28.640][c] I'm[/c][00:28:28.799][c] I'm[/c][00:28:29.520][c] bullish[/c][00:28:29.919][c] on[/c] uranium just because I'm I'm bullish on uranium just because I'm I'm bullish on that[00:28:30.240][c] sector[/c][00:28:30.559][c] and[/c][00:28:30.720][c] I[/c][00:28:30.880][c] I[/c][00:28:31.120][c] think[/c][00:28:31.200][c] our[/c][00:28:31.360][c] energy[/c] that sector and I I think our energy that sector and I I think our energy demands[00:28:32.000][c] are[/c][00:28:32.159][c] only[/c][00:28:32.399][c] going[/c][00:28:32.480][c] to[/c][00:28:32.640][c] grow.[/c][00:28:33.679][c] One[/c][00:28:33.919][c] of[/c] demands are only going to grow. One of demands are only going to grow. One of the[00:28:34.240][c] last[/c][00:28:35.360][c] sectors[/c][00:28:36.000][c] that[/c][00:28:36.399][c] shows[/c][00:28:36.799][c] bullishness[/c] the last sectors that shows bullishness the last sectors that shows bullishness in[00:28:38.080][c] the[/c][00:28:38.320][c] business[/c][00:28:38.640][c] cycle[/c][00:28:39.039][c] that[/c][00:28:39.200][c] tends[/c][00:28:39.520][c] to[/c][00:28:39.600][c] hold[/c] in the business cycle that tends to hold in the business cycle that tends to hold up[00:28:39.919][c] the[/c][00:28:40.159][c] best[/c][00:28:40.559][c] and[/c][00:28:40.799][c] even[/c][00:28:41.039][c] can[/c][00:28:41.279][c] hold[/c][00:28:41.440][c] up[/c][00:28:41.679][c] into[/c] up the best and even can hold up into up the best and even can hold up into the[00:28:42.159][c] first[/c][00:28:42.320][c] few[/c][00:28:42.480][c] months[/c][00:28:42.720][c] of[/c][00:28:42.880][c] a[/c][00:28:43.120][c] recession[/c][00:28:44.000][c] is[/c] the first few months of a recession is the first few months of a recession is the[00:28:44.480][c] energy[/c][00:28:44.880][c] sector.[/c][00:28:45.440][c] And[/c][00:28:45.679][c] the[/c][00:28:45.919][c] reason[/c][00:28:46.080][c] is[/c] the energy sector. And the reason is the energy sector. And the reason is because[00:28:46.880][c] our[/c][00:28:47.120][c] energy[/c][00:28:47.520][c] demands[/c][00:28:48.240][c] are[/c] because our energy demands are because our energy demands are increasing[00:28:49.440][c] from[/c][00:28:49.679][c] here,[/c][00:28:50.159][c] right?[/c][00:28:50.399][c] Like[/c][00:28:50.640][c] we're[/c] increasing from here, right? Like we're increasing from here, right? Like we're only[00:28:51.039][c] going[/c][00:28:51.120][c] to[/c][00:28:51.200][c] be[/c][00:28:51.840][c] growing[/c][00:28:52.240][c] in[/c][00:28:52.399][c] our[/c][00:28:52.640][c] use[/c][00:28:52.799][c] of[/c] only going to be growing in our use of only going to be growing in our use of AI[00:28:53.360][c] and[/c][00:28:53.600][c] just[/c][00:28:53.760][c] in[/c][00:28:53.919][c] general[/c][00:28:54.240][c] even[/c][00:28:54.399][c] without[/c][00:28:54.640][c] AI,[/c] AI and just in general even without AI, AI and just in general even without AI, right?[00:28:55.200][c] Like[/c][00:28:55.360][c] our[/c][00:28:55.520][c] energy[/c][00:28:55.760][c] demands[/c][00:28:56.080][c] are[/c][00:28:56.240][c] going[/c] right? Like our energy demands are going right? Like our energy demands are going to[00:28:56.399][c] grow.[/c][00:28:57.039][c] And[/c][00:28:57.200][c] so[/c][00:28:57.440][c] for[/c][00:28:57.600][c] the[/c][00:28:57.760][c] energy[/c][00:28:58.159][c] sector[/c][00:28:58.399][c] to[/c] to grow. And so for the energy sector to to grow. And so for the energy sector to sell[00:28:58.880][c] off,[/c][00:28:59.200][c] it[/c][00:28:59.440][c] has[/c][00:28:59.600][c] to[/c][00:28:59.840][c] be[/c][00:29:00.159][c] pretty[/c][00:29:00.480][c] sure[/c][00:29:00.720][c] that[/c] sell off, it has to be pretty sure that sell off, it has to be pretty sure that we're[00:29:01.120][c] in[/c][00:29:01.279][c] a[/c][00:29:01.440][c] recession.[/c][00:29:02.399][c] Otherwise,[/c][00:29:02.880][c] you[/c] we're in a recession. Otherwise, you we're in a recession. Otherwise, you would[00:29:03.279][c] argue[/c][00:29:03.440][c] that[/c][00:29:03.600][c] our[/c][00:29:03.760][c] energy[/c][00:29:04.080][c] demands[/c][00:29:04.399][c] are[/c] would argue that our energy demands are would argue that our energy demands are only[00:29:04.880][c] going[/c][00:29:05.039][c] to[/c][00:29:05.200][c] grow[/c][00:29:05.360][c] from[/c][00:29:05.600][c] here.[/c][00:29:06.080][c] And[/c][00:29:06.240][c] so[/c][00:29:06.399][c] if[/c] only going to grow from here. And so if only going to grow from here. And so if you[00:29:06.720][c] look[/c][00:29:06.799][c] at[/c][00:29:06.960][c] the[/c][00:29:07.120][c] last[/c][00:29:07.279][c] two[/c][00:29:07.520][c] major[/c] you look at the last two major you look at the last two major recessions,[00:29:09.200][c] the[/c][00:29:09.440][c] energy[/c][00:29:09.840][c] market[/c][00:29:10.720][c] topped[/c][00:29:11.120][c] out[/c] recessions, the energy market topped out recessions, the energy market topped out well[00:29:12.159][c] after[/c][00:29:12.399][c] the[/c][00:29:12.640][c] stock[/c][00:29:12.880][c] market[/c][00:29:13.200][c] did.[/c][00:29:13.520][c] you[/c][00:29:13.760][c] I'm[/c] well after the stock market did. you I'm well after the stock market did. you I'm talking[00:29:14.240][c] like[/c][00:29:14.640][c] six[/c][00:29:14.960][c] months[/c][00:29:15.360][c] or[/c][00:29:15.600][c] longer[/c][00:29:16.399][c] after[/c] talking like six months or longer after talking like six months or longer after the[00:29:16.880][c] S&P[/c][00:29:17.360][c] topped[/c][00:29:17.760][c] energy[/c][00:29:18.240][c] continued[/c][00:29:18.559][c] to[/c][00:29:18.720][c] go[/c][00:29:18.880][c] up[/c] the S&P topped energy continued to go up the S&P topped energy continued to go up and[00:29:19.679][c] and[/c][00:29:20.000][c] then[/c][00:29:20.159][c] once[/c][00:29:20.399][c] the[/c][00:29:20.559][c] bull[/c][00:29:20.880][c] market[/c][00:29:21.120][c] for[/c] and and then once the bull market for and and then once the bull market for energy[00:29:21.840][c] was[/c][00:29:22.080][c] over[/c][00:29:23.200][c] then[/c][00:29:23.440][c] the[/c][00:29:23.600][c] business[/c][00:29:23.919][c] cycle[/c] energy was over then the business cycle energy was over then the business cycle was[00:29:24.480][c] was[/c][00:29:24.799][c] over[/c][00:29:25.039][c] and[/c][00:29:25.279][c] then[/c][00:29:25.520][c] everything[/c][00:29:25.840][c] reset[/c] was was over and then everything reset was was over and then everything reset because[00:29:26.559][c] when[/c][00:29:26.799][c] energy[/c][00:29:27.279][c] comes[/c][00:29:27.679][c] crashing[/c][00:29:28.159][c] down[/c] because when energy comes crashing down because when energy comes crashing down that's[00:29:29.200][c] the[/c][00:29:29.440][c] end[/c][00:29:29.760][c] right[/c][00:29:30.000][c] because[/c][00:29:30.640][c] you[/c][00:29:30.799][c] know[/c][00:29:31.039][c] if[/c] that's the end right because you know if that's the end right because you know if if[00:29:32.080][c] even[/c][00:29:32.320][c] that[/c][00:29:32.640][c] sector[/c][00:29:32.880][c] of[/c][00:29:33.039][c] the[/c][00:29:33.200][c] market[/c][00:29:33.360][c] can't[/c] if even that sector of the market can't if even that sector of the market can't do[00:29:33.760][c] well[/c][00:29:33.919][c] that[/c][00:29:34.080][c] that[/c][00:29:34.320][c] typically[/c][00:29:34.559][c] marks[/c][00:29:34.880][c] the[/c] do well that that typically marks the do well that that typically marks the end[00:29:35.120][c] of[/c][00:29:35.200][c] the[/c][00:29:35.360][c] business[/c][00:29:35.600][c] cycle[/c][00:29:35.919][c] we[/c][00:29:36.080][c] get[/c][00:29:36.240][c] our[/c] end of the business cycle we get our end of the business cycle we get our crash[00:29:37.039][c] and[/c][00:29:37.279][c] then[/c][00:29:37.360][c] it[/c][00:29:37.520][c] goes[/c][00:29:37.679][c] to[/c][00:29:37.840][c] looser[/c] crash and then it goes to looser crash and then it goes to looser monetary[00:29:38.640][c] policy[/c][00:29:39.039][c] and[/c][00:29:39.200][c] then[/c][00:29:39.360][c] we[/c][00:29:39.440][c] we[/c][00:29:39.760][c] sort[/c][00:29:39.919][c] of[/c] monetary policy and then we we sort of monetary policy and then we we sort of reset[00:29:40.480][c] so[/c][00:29:40.880][c] that's[/c][00:29:41.120][c] another[/c][00:29:41.440][c] area[/c][00:29:41.760][c] to[/c][00:29:41.919][c] to[/c][00:29:42.159][c] look[/c] reset so that's another area to to look reset so that's another area to to look into[00:29:43.279][c] um[/c][00:29:43.440][c] is[/c][00:29:43.600][c] that[/c][00:29:43.840][c] and[/c][00:29:44.080][c] also[/c][00:29:44.320][c] I've[/c][00:29:44.480][c] I've[/c][00:29:44.720][c] been[/c] into um is that and also I've I've been into um is that and also I've I've been you[00:29:45.200][c] know[/c][00:29:45.279][c] pretty[/c][00:29:45.520][c] bullish[/c][00:29:45.840][c] on[/c][00:29:46.000][c] the[/c] you know pretty bullish on the you know pretty bullish on the manufacturing[00:29:46.799][c] sector[/c][00:29:47.120][c] for[/c][00:29:47.279][c] the[/c][00:29:47.440][c] last[/c][00:29:47.600][c] like[/c][00:29:48.000][c] 6[/c] manufacturing sector for the last like 6 manufacturing sector for the last like 6 months[00:29:48.480][c] or[/c][00:29:48.720][c] so.[/c][00:29:49.360][c] Um[/c][00:29:50.480][c] we've[/c][00:29:50.799][c] seen[/c][00:29:50.960][c] a[/c][00:29:51.120][c] little[/c][00:29:51.200][c] bit[/c] months or so. Um we've seen a little bit months or so. Um we've seen a little bit of[00:29:51.440][c] a[/c][00:29:51.760][c] a[/c][00:29:52.080][c] resurgence[/c][00:29:52.720][c] in[/c][00:29:52.880][c] in[/c][00:29:53.200][c] that[/c][00:29:53.440][c] sector[/c][00:29:53.760][c] but[/c] of a a resurgence in in that sector but of a a resurgence in in that sector but that's[00:29:54.159][c] not[/c][00:29:54.320][c] as[/c][00:29:54.559][c] as[/c][00:29:54.960][c] obvious[/c][00:29:55.279][c] of[/c][00:29:55.440][c] a[/c][00:29:55.600][c] play[/c][00:29:55.760][c] to[/c][00:29:56.000][c] me[/c] that's not as as obvious of a play to me that's not as as obvious of a play to me as[00:29:56.799][c] as[/c][00:29:57.200][c] the[/c][00:29:57.360][c] energy[/c][00:29:57.679][c] one[/c][00:29:57.919][c] has[/c][00:29:58.080][c] been[/c][00:29:58.240][c] and[/c][00:29:58.480][c] as[/c][00:29:58.640][c] the[/c] as as the energy one has been and as the as as the energy one has been and as the metals[00:29:59.440][c] have[/c][00:29:59.679][c] been[/c][00:29:59.840][c] for[/c][00:30:00.080][c] the[/c][00:30:00.240][c] last[/c][00:30:00.640][c] couple[/c][00:30:00.880][c] of[/c] metals have been for the last couple of metals have been for the last couple of years.[00:30:01.200][c] So,[/c][00:30:01.440][c] I[/c][00:30:01.600][c] think[/c][00:30:01.760][c] just[/c][00:30:01.919][c] going[/c][00:30:02.080][c] in[/c][00:30:02.320][c] with,[/c] years. So, I think just going in with, years. So, I think just going in with, and[00:30:03.200][c] by[/c][00:30:03.360][c] the[/c][00:30:03.440][c] way,[/c][00:30:03.600][c] metals[/c][00:30:04.080][c] will[/c][00:30:04.320][c] get[/c][00:30:04.480][c] hit[/c][00:30:04.799][c] in[/c] and by the way, metals will get hit in and by the way, metals will get hit in in in[00:30:05.520][c] a[/c][00:30:05.760][c] in[/c][00:30:05.919][c] a[/c][00:30:06.159][c] in[/c][00:30:06.399][c] a[/c][00:30:06.559][c] recession.[/c][00:30:06.960][c] They[/c][00:30:07.200][c] will,[/c] in in a in a in a recession. They will, in in a in a in a recession. They will, but[00:30:08.240][c] they[/c][00:30:08.480][c] tend[/c][00:30:08.720][c] to[/c][00:30:08.880][c] recover.[/c][00:30:09.919][c] They[/c][00:30:10.080][c] tend[/c][00:30:10.320][c] to[/c] but they tend to recover. They tend to but they tend to recover. They tend to recover[00:30:10.720][c] to[/c][00:30:10.960][c] new[/c][00:30:11.039][c] all-time[/c][00:30:11.440][c] highs[/c][00:30:11.840][c] before[/c][00:30:12.880][c] uh[/c] recover to new all-time highs before uh recover to new all-time highs before uh risk[00:30:13.279][c] assets[/c][00:30:13.760][c] do.[/c] risk assets do. risk assets do. >> All[00:30:14.799][c] right.[/c][00:30:15.120][c] If[/c][00:30:15.360][c] you're[/c][00:30:15.520][c] watching[/c][00:30:15.760][c] this[/c][00:30:16.000][c] at[/c] >> All right. If you're watching this at >> All right. If you're watching this at home,[00:30:16.640][c] go[/c][00:30:16.799][c] back[/c][00:30:17.039][c] and[/c][00:30:17.360][c] watch[/c][00:30:17.679][c] those[/c][00:30:17.919][c] last[/c][00:30:18.240][c] few[/c] home, go back and watch those last few home, go back and watch those last few minutes[00:30:18.799][c] again,[/c][00:30:19.440][c] Ben.[/c][00:30:19.840][c] This[/c][00:30:20.000][c] was[/c][00:30:20.240][c] great.[/c] minutes again, Ben. This was great. minutes again, Ben. This was great. Thank[00:30:20.880][c] you[/c][00:30:21.039][c] so[/c][00:30:21.200][c] much[/c][00:30:21.360][c] for[/c][00:30:21.600][c] coming[/c][00:30:21.760][c] on[/c][00:30:21.919][c] the[/c] Thank you so much for coming on the Thank you so much for coming on the show.[00:30:22.320][c] Where[/c][00:30:22.559][c] can[/c][00:30:22.640][c] the[/c][00:30:22.799][c] good[/c][00:30:22.960][c] people[/c][00:30:23.200][c] at[/c][00:30:23.360][c] home[/c] show. Where can the good people at home show. Where can the good people at home go[00:30:23.760][c] to[/c][00:30:24.000][c] find[/c][00:30:24.159][c] more[/c][00:30:24.399][c] of[/c][00:30:24.480][c] your[/c][00:30:24.720][c] work?[/c] go to find more of your work? go to find more of your work? >> Yeah,[00:30:25.760][c] you[/c][00:30:25.919][c] can[/c][00:30:26.000][c] find[/c][00:30:26.159][c] me[/c][00:30:26.320][c] on[/c][00:30:26.559][c] YouTube.[/c][00:30:27.200][c] Um,[/c] >> Yeah, you can find me on YouTube. Um, >> Yeah, you can find me on YouTube. Um, uh,[00:30:28.080][c] just[/c][00:30:28.240][c] search[/c][00:30:28.399][c] my[/c][00:30:28.640][c] name,[/c][00:30:28.799][c] Benjamin[/c][00:30:29.200][c] Cowan.[/c] uh, just search my name, Benjamin Cowan. uh, just search my name, Benjamin Cowan. I'm[00:30:29.679][c] also[/c][00:30:29.919][c] on[/c][00:30:30.159][c] Twitter.[/c][00:30:30.799][c] uh[/c][00:30:31.120][c] into[/c][00:30:31.600][c] cryptoverse[/c] I'm also on Twitter. uh into cryptoverse I'm also on Twitter. uh into cryptoverse is[00:30:32.399][c] the[/c][00:30:32.559][c] handle[/c][00:30:32.799][c] or[/c][00:30:33.039][c] benjamin.com.[/c][00:30:34.080][c] So[/c][00:30:34.320][c] that's[/c] is the handle or benjamin.com. So that's is the handle or benjamin.com. So that's where[00:30:34.640][c] you[/c][00:30:34.799][c] can[/c][00:30:34.880][c] find[/c][00:30:35.039][c] me.[/c] where you can find me. where you can find me. >> Okay,[00:30:36.399][c] awesome.[/c][00:30:36.880][c] Thanks[/c][00:30:37.039][c] so[/c][00:30:37.200][c] much,[/c][00:30:37.440][c] Ben.[/c][00:30:37.760][c] Take[/c] >> Okay, awesome. Thanks so much, Ben. Take >> Okay, awesome. Thanks so much, Ben. Take care. care. care. >> Thanks[00:30:38.720][c] for[/c][00:30:38.799][c] having[/c][00:30:38.960][c] me.[/c]\n"
},
{
"name": "strategic_video_v2.md",
"content": "\ufeff\n[download] 1.00KiB at 10.78KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 3.00KiB at 32.18KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 7.00KiB at 74.92KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 15.00KiB at 160.18KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 31.00KiB at 232.92KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 63.00KiB at 337.11KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 127.00KiB at 430.49KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 255.00KiB at 617.34KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 283.42KiB at 622.63KiB/s (00:00:00)\n[download] 100% of 283.42KiB in 00:00:00 at 335.05KiB/s\n \n# Bitcoin Repeating 2019: What This Means For Price, Dominance | Benjamin Cowen\n\nKind: captions Language: en does[00:00:00.240][c] it[/c][00:00:00.440][c] look[/c][00:00:00.760][c] like[/c][00:00:01.000][c] to[/c][00:00:01.199][c] you[/c][00:00:01.439][c] does[/c][00:00:01.599][c] it[/c][00:00:01.800][c] look[/c] does it look like to you does it look does it look like to you does it look like[00:00:02.240][c] that[/c][00:00:02.399][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:00:02.760][c] is[/c][00:00:02.919][c] currently[/c][00:00:03.320][c] repeating[/c] like that Bitcoin is currently repeating like that Bitcoin is currently repeating late[00:00:04.319][c] 2021[/c][00:00:05.240][c] cycle[/c][00:00:06.040][c] I[/c][00:00:06.160][c] think[/c][00:00:06.480][c] no[/c][00:00:06.759][c] I[/c][00:00:06.879][c] so[/c][00:00:07.120][c] I[/c][00:00:07.359][c] I[/c] late 2021 cycle I think no I so I I late 2021 cycle I think no I so I I think[00:00:07.640][c] we're[/c][00:00:07.919][c] actually[/c][00:00:08.480][c] uh[/c][00:00:08.599][c] in[/c][00:00:08.760][c] 2019[/c][00:00:09.519][c] I[/c][00:00:09.599][c] think[/c] think we're actually uh in 2019 I think think we're actually uh in 2019 I think it's[00:00:09.840][c] more[/c][00:00:10.000][c] similar[/c][00:00:10.240][c] to[/c][00:00:10.360][c] 2019[/c][00:00:10.800][c] and[/c][00:00:10.920][c] there's[/c][00:00:11.040][c] a[/c] it's more similar to 2019 and there's a it's more similar to 2019 and there's a couple[00:00:11.320][c] of[/c][00:00:11.400][c] reasons[/c][00:00:11.719][c] for[/c][00:00:12.000][c] that[/c][00:00:12.440][c] one[/c][00:00:12.719][c] reason[/c] couple of reasons for that one reason couple of reasons for that one reason what's[00:00:13.880][c] been[/c][00:00:14.040][c] driving[/c][00:00:14.360][c] the[/c][00:00:14.519][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:00:14.960][c] price[/c] what's been driving the Bitcoin price what's been driving the Bitcoin price and[00:00:15.320][c] ultimately[/c][00:00:15.719][c] the[/c][00:00:15.799][c] rest[/c][00:00:15.960][c] of[/c][00:00:16.039][c] the[/c][00:00:16.160][c] crypto[/c] and ultimately the rest of the crypto and ultimately the rest of the crypto markets[00:00:16.960][c] we're[/c][00:00:17.160][c] talking[/c][00:00:17.439][c] about[/c][00:00:17.720][c] this[/c][00:00:17.920][c] theme[/c] markets we're talking about this theme markets we're talking about this theme with[00:00:18.640][c] our[/c][00:00:18.760][c] next[/c][00:00:19.000][c] guest[/c][00:00:19.199][c] Ben[/c][00:00:19.439][c] Cohen[/c][00:00:20.000][c] he[/c][00:00:20.119][c] is[/c][00:00:20.199][c] the[/c] with our next guest Ben Cohen he is the with our next guest Ben Cohen he is the founder[00:00:20.600][c] of[/c][00:00:20.720][c] into[/c][00:00:20.960][c] the[/c][00:00:21.080][c] crypto[/c][00:00:21.400][c] verse[/c][00:00:21.680][c] we'll[/c] founder of into the crypto verse we'll founder of into the crypto verse we'll be[00:00:21.960][c] talking[/c][00:00:22.199][c] about[/c][00:00:22.439][c] his[/c][00:00:22.600][c] work[/c][00:00:22.920][c] as[/c][00:00:23.080][c] well[/c][00:00:23.640][c] as[/c][00:00:23.840][c] his[/c] be talking about his work as well as his be talking about his work as well as his Outlook[00:00:24.439][c] welcome[/c][00:00:24.720][c] back[/c][00:00:24.840][c] to[/c][00:00:24.880][c] the[/c][00:00:25.000][c] show[/c][00:00:25.279][c] Ben[/c] Outlook welcome back to the show Ben Outlook welcome back to the show Ben good[00:00:25.680][c] to[/c][00:00:25.800][c] see[/c][00:00:25.920][c] you[/c][00:00:26.039][c] as[/c][00:00:26.199][c] always[/c][00:00:26.599][c] thanks[/c][00:00:26.760][c] for[/c] good to see you as always thanks for good to see you as always thanks for having[00:00:27.039][c] me[/c][00:00:27.160][c] David[/c][00:00:27.439][c] pleasure[/c][00:00:27.640][c] to[/c][00:00:27.760][c] be[/c][00:00:27.880][c] here[/c] having me David pleasure to be here having me David pleasure to be here again[00:00:28.480][c] uh[/c][00:00:28.599][c] pleasure[/c][00:00:28.880][c] to[/c][00:00:29.039][c] have[/c][00:00:29.240][c] you[/c] again uh pleasure to have you again uh pleasure to have you importantly[00:00:30.160][c] the[/c][00:00:30.320][c] uh[/c][00:00:30.439][c] CPI[/c][00:00:30.880][c] print[/c][00:00:31.160][c] came[/c][00:00:31.279][c] out[/c] importantly the uh CPI print came out importantly the uh CPI print came out this[00:00:31.640][c] week[/c][00:00:31.840][c] and[/c][00:00:32.040][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:00:32.640][c] um[/c][00:00:32.800][c] dropped[/c][00:00:33.120][c] to[/c][00:00:33.239][c] 58k[/c] this week and Bitcoin um dropped to 58k this week and Bitcoin um dropped to 58k on[00:00:33.920][c] the[/c][00:00:34.079][c] news[/c][00:00:34.800][c] uh[/c][00:00:35.160][c] so[/c][00:00:35.399][c] broadly[/c][00:00:35.840][c] speaking[/c][00:00:36.760][c] uh[/c] on the news uh so broadly speaking uh on the news uh so broadly speaking uh before[00:00:37.040][c] we[/c][00:00:37.200][c] talk[/c][00:00:37.440][c] about[/c][00:00:37.680][c] your[/c][00:00:37.960][c] outlook[/c][00:00:38.280][c] for[/c] before we talk about your outlook for before we talk about your outlook for Bitcoin[00:00:39.160][c] the[/c][00:00:39.360][c] economic[/c][00:00:40.000][c] drivers[/c][00:00:41.000][c] if[/c][00:00:41.200][c] there[/c] Bitcoin the economic drivers if there Bitcoin the economic drivers if there are[00:00:41.640][c] any[/c][00:00:42.239][c] behind[/c][00:00:42.600][c] the[/c][00:00:42.719][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:00:43.239][c] price[/c][00:00:43.680][c] have[/c] are any behind the Bitcoin price have are any behind the Bitcoin price have you[00:00:43.960][c] identified[/c][00:00:44.520][c] any[/c][00:00:44.920][c] I[/c][00:00:44.960][c] mean[/c][00:00:45.120][c] look[/c][00:00:45.320][c] I[/c][00:00:45.440][c] I[/c][00:00:45.520][c] think[/c] you identified any I mean look I I think you identified any I mean look I I think inflation[00:00:46.120][c] plays[/c][00:00:46.320][c] a[/c][00:00:46.440][c] huge[/c][00:00:46.640][c] role[/c][00:00:47.039][c] obviously[/c][00:00:47.840][c] I[/c] inflation plays a huge role obviously I inflation plays a huge role obviously I think[00:00:48.120][c] the[/c][00:00:48.239][c] markets[/c][00:00:48.559][c] are[/c][00:00:48.680][c] trying[/c][00:00:48.879][c] to[/c][00:00:49.039][c] sniff[/c] think the markets are trying to sniff think the markets are trying to sniff out[00:00:49.600][c] if[/c][00:00:49.719][c] the[/c][00:00:49.840][c] fed's[/c][00:00:50.239][c] actually[/c][00:00:50.399][c] going[/c][00:00:50.559][c] to[/c] out if the fed's actually going to out if the fed's actually going to engineer[00:00:51.039][c] a[/c][00:00:51.160][c] soft[/c][00:00:51.440][c] Landing[/c][00:00:52.399][c] um[/c][00:00:52.520][c] and[/c][00:00:52.640][c] get[/c] engineer a soft Landing um and get engineer a soft Landing um and get inflation[00:00:53.280][c] durably[/c][00:00:53.640][c] back[/c][00:00:53.760][c] to[/c][00:00:53.879][c] 2%[/c][00:00:54.800][c] there's[/c] inflation durably back to 2% there's inflation durably back to 2% there's obviously[00:00:55.559][c] the[/c][00:00:55.680][c] two[/c][00:00:55.879][c] extremes[/c][00:00:56.640][c] they[/c][00:00:56.879][c] they[/c][00:00:56.960][c] run[/c] obviously the two extremes they they run obviously the two extremes they they run the[00:00:57.280][c] risk[/c][00:00:57.520][c] of[/c][00:00:57.640][c] a[/c][00:00:57.760][c] second[/c][00:00:58.000][c] wave[/c][00:00:58.160][c] of[/c][00:00:58.320][c] inflation[/c] the risk of a second wave of inflation the risk of a second wave of inflation if[00:00:58.879][c] they[/c][00:00:59.000][c] repeat[/c][00:00:59.239][c] the[/c][00:00:59.359][c] 197[/c][00:01:00.199][c] they[/c][00:01:00.280][c] run[/c][00:01:00.440][c] the[/c][00:01:00.559][c] risk[/c] if they repeat the 197 they run the risk if they repeat the 197 they run the risk of[00:01:00.840][c] a[/c][00:01:00.960][c] deflationary[/c][00:01:01.519][c] crash[/c][00:01:01.760][c] if[/c][00:01:01.879][c] they[/c][00:01:02.000][c] repeat[/c] of a deflationary crash if they repeat of a deflationary crash if they repeat the[00:01:02.359][c] 1940s[/c][00:01:03.160][c] so[/c][00:01:03.960][c] it's[/c][00:01:04.199][c] you[/c][00:01:04.320][c] know[/c][00:01:04.479][c] it's[/c][00:01:04.720][c] it's[/c][00:01:04.839][c] a[/c] the 1940s so it's you know it's it's a the 1940s so it's you know it's it's a fine[00:01:05.320][c] line[/c][00:01:05.640][c] for[/c][00:01:05.920][c] the[/c][00:01:06.040][c] for[/c][00:01:06.159][c] the[/c][00:01:06.280][c] FED[/c][00:01:06.479][c] to[/c][00:01:06.640][c] walk[/c][00:01:07.400][c] I[/c] fine line for the for the FED to walk I fine line for the for the FED to walk I think[00:01:08.040][c] the[/c][00:01:08.200][c] main[/c][00:01:08.479][c] thing[/c][00:01:09.119][c] some[/c][00:01:09.240][c] of[/c][00:01:09.360][c] the[/c][00:01:09.439][c] main[/c] think the main thing some of the main think the main thing some of the main things[00:01:10.000][c] outside[/c][00:01:10.400][c] of[/c][00:01:10.479][c] the[/c][00:01:10.600][c] macro[/c][00:01:11.200][c] side[/c][00:01:11.400][c] that[/c] things outside of the macro side that things outside of the macro side that are[00:01:11.600][c] driving[/c][00:01:11.960][c] the[/c][00:01:12.200][c] markets[/c][00:01:13.200][c] are[/c][00:01:13.720][c] um[/c][00:01:13.880][c] you[/c][00:01:13.960][c] know[/c] are driving the markets are um you know are driving the markets are um you know things[00:01:14.360][c] we've[/c][00:01:14.520][c] talked[/c][00:01:14.720][c] about[/c][00:01:14.840][c] on[/c][00:01:15.000][c] here[/c][00:01:15.159][c] before[/c] things we've talked about on here before things we've talked about on here before Bitcoin[00:01:16.360][c] dominance[/c][00:01:17.360][c] uh[/c][00:01:17.520][c] and[/c][00:01:17.600][c] that's[/c] Bitcoin dominance uh and that's Bitcoin dominance uh and that's essentially[00:01:18.159][c] looking[/c][00:01:18.360][c] at[/c][00:01:18.520][c] like[/c][00:01:18.640][c] altcoins[/c][00:01:19.240][c] on[/c] essentially looking at like altcoins on essentially looking at like altcoins on their[00:01:19.600][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:01:20.000][c] Pairs[/c][00:01:20.520][c] and[/c][00:01:20.759][c] and[/c][00:01:21.040][c] assuming[/c] their Bitcoin Pairs and and assuming their Bitcoin Pairs and and assuming their[00:01:21.680][c] oscillators[/c][00:01:22.159][c] at[/c][00:01:22.400][c] best[/c][00:01:23.280][c] uh[/c][00:01:23.400][c] I[/c][00:01:23.520][c] think[/c] their oscillators at best uh I think their oscillators at best uh I think that[00:01:23.960][c] plays[/c][00:01:24.119][c] a[/c][00:01:24.200][c] huge[/c][00:01:24.400][c] role[/c][00:01:24.600][c] and[/c][00:01:24.680][c] then[/c][00:01:24.799][c] I[/c][00:01:24.920][c] also[/c] that plays a huge role and then I also that plays a huge role and then I also think[00:01:25.360][c] you[/c][00:01:25.439][c] know[/c][00:01:25.560][c] the[/c][00:01:25.680][c] fed's[/c][00:01:26.040][c] reaction[/c] think you know the fed's reaction think you know the fed's reaction function[00:01:27.200][c] to[/c][00:01:27.640][c] you[/c][00:01:27.759][c] know[/c][00:01:27.920][c] to[/c][00:01:28.119][c] inflation[/c][00:01:28.520][c] and[/c] function to you know to inflation and function to you know to inflation and everything[00:01:29.079][c] you[/c][00:01:29.200][c] know[/c][00:01:29.920][c] when[/c][00:01:30.040][c] do[/c][00:01:30.159][c] they[/c] everything you know when do they everything you know when do they actually[00:01:30.600][c] cut[/c][00:01:30.880][c] rates[/c][00:01:31.400][c] and[/c][00:01:31.600][c] by[/c][00:01:31.840][c] how[/c][00:01:32.079][c] much[/c][00:01:32.759][c] I[/c] actually cut rates and by how much I actually cut rates and by how much I think[00:01:33.000][c] a[/c][00:01:33.119][c] lot[/c][00:01:33.240][c] of[/c][00:01:33.399][c] that[/c][00:01:33.720][c] does[/c][00:01:34.240][c] uh[/c][00:01:34.360][c] does[/c] think a lot of that does uh does think a lot of that does uh does ultimately[00:01:34.920][c] play[/c][00:01:35.079][c] a[/c][00:01:35.240][c] role[/c][00:01:35.560][c] in[/c][00:01:35.759][c] in[/c][00:01:35.920][c] where[/c] ultimately play a role in in where ultimately play a role in in where bitcoin[00:01:36.680][c] price[/c][00:01:37.000][c] action[/c][00:01:37.399][c] will[/c][00:01:37.640][c] will[/c] bitcoin price action will will bitcoin price action will will ultimately[00:01:38.159][c] go[/c][00:01:38.360][c] going[/c][00:01:38.520][c] into[/c][00:01:38.680][c] the[/c][00:01:38.759][c] end[/c][00:01:38.880][c] of[/c][00:01:38.960][c] the[/c] ultimately go going into the end of the ultimately go going into the end of the year[00:01:39.200][c] because[/c][00:01:39.439][c] I[/c][00:01:39.520][c] mean[/c][00:01:39.759][c] so[/c][00:01:40.000][c] far[/c][00:01:40.799][c] uh[/c][00:01:40.920][c] the[/c][00:01:41.040][c] ETFs[/c] year because I mean so far uh the ETFs year because I mean so far uh the ETFs haven't[00:01:42.040][c] really[/c][00:01:42.320][c] been[/c][00:01:42.560][c] able[/c][00:01:42.759][c] to[/c][00:01:42.920][c] lift[/c][00:01:43.399][c] Bitcoin[/c] haven't really been able to lift Bitcoin haven't really been able to lift Bitcoin um[00:01:44.920][c] you[/c][00:01:45.040][c] know[/c][00:01:45.360][c] much[/c][00:01:45.640][c] higher[/c][00:01:45.920][c] for[/c][00:01:46.079][c] the[/c][00:01:46.200][c] last[/c] um you know much higher for the last um you know much higher for the last half[00:01:46.759][c] year[/c][00:01:47.000][c] so[/c][00:01:47.600][c] okay[/c][00:01:47.920][c] I[/c][00:01:48.040][c] remember[/c][00:01:48.439][c] speaking[/c][00:01:48.840][c] to[/c] half year so okay I remember speaking to half year so okay I remember speaking to you[00:01:49.600][c] uh[/c][00:01:49.719][c] in[/c][00:01:50.040][c] Prior[/c][00:01:50.439][c] months[/c][00:01:51.000][c] and[/c][00:01:51.399][c] uh[/c][00:01:51.640][c] last[/c][00:01:51.840][c] year[/c] you uh in Prior months and uh last year you uh in Prior months and uh last year as[00:01:52.200][c] well[/c][00:01:52.439][c] let[/c][00:01:52.520][c] me[/c][00:01:52.680][c] show[/c][00:01:53.000][c] let[/c][00:01:53.079][c] me[/c][00:01:53.200][c] just[/c][00:01:53.320][c] show[/c][00:01:53.600][c] my[/c] as well let me show let me just show my as well let me show let me just show my screen[00:01:54.159][c] and[/c][00:01:54.280][c] I'll[/c][00:01:54.439][c] let[/c][00:01:54.560][c] you[/c][00:01:54.640][c] share[/c][00:01:54.920][c] yours[/c][00:01:55.280][c] as[/c] screen and I'll let you share yours as screen and I'll let you share yours as well[00:01:56.079][c] uh[/c][00:01:56.200][c] this[/c][00:01:56.320][c] is[/c][00:01:56.600][c] uh[/c][00:01:56.799][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:01:57.200][c] versus[/c][00:01:57.479][c] the[/c] well uh this is uh Bitcoin versus the well uh this is uh Bitcoin versus the NASDAQ[00:01:58.320][c] The[/c][00:01:58.479][c] Narrative[/c][00:01:58.880][c] used[/c][00:01:59.079][c] to[/c][00:01:59.200][c] be[/c][00:01:59.360][c] simple[/c] NASDAQ The Narrative used to be simple NASDAQ The Narrative used to be simple the[00:01:59.960][c] bitcoin[/c][00:02:00.399][c] price[/c][00:02:01.200][c] closely[/c][00:02:01.600][c] correlated[/c] the bitcoin price closely correlated the bitcoin price closely correlated with[00:02:02.200][c] tech[/c][00:02:02.520][c] stocks[/c][00:02:03.360][c] that[/c][00:02:03.560][c] diverged[/c] with tech stocks that diverged with tech stocks that diverged significantly[00:02:04.759][c] this[/c][00:02:04.880][c] year[/c][00:02:05.079][c] as[/c][00:02:05.200][c] you[/c][00:02:05.280][c] can[/c][00:02:05.399][c] see[/c] significantly this year as you can see significantly this year as you can see from[00:02:05.680][c] the[/c][00:02:05.799][c] screen[/c][00:02:06.079][c] here[/c][00:02:06.280][c] the[/c][00:02:06.439][c] purple[/c][00:02:06.759][c] line[/c][00:02:07.039][c] on[/c] from the screen here the purple line on from the screen here the purple line on my[00:02:07.399][c] screen[/c][00:02:07.719][c] is[/c][00:02:07.880][c] the[/c][00:02:08.039][c] NASDAQ[/c][00:02:09.000][c] interestingly[/c] my screen is the NASDAQ interestingly my screen is the NASDAQ interestingly though[00:02:09.800][c] Ben[/c][00:02:10.360][c] if[/c][00:02:10.440][c] you[/c][00:02:10.599][c] overlay[/c][00:02:11.039][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:02:11.400][c] to[/c][00:02:11.640][c] the[/c] though Ben if you overlay Bitcoin to the though Ben if you overlay Bitcoin to the Russell[00:02:12.640][c] again[/c][00:02:12.840][c] not[/c][00:02:13.080][c] perfect[/c][00:02:13.520][c] but[/c][00:02:14.000][c] closer[/c] Russell again not perfect but closer Russell again not perfect but closer correlation[00:02:15.080][c] than[/c][00:02:15.319][c] with[/c][00:02:15.480][c] the[/c][00:02:15.599][c] NASDAQ[/c][00:02:16.239][c] so[/c][00:02:17.080][c] I'm[/c] correlation than with the NASDAQ so I'm correlation than with the NASDAQ so I'm again[00:02:17.840][c] I'm[/c][00:02:18.000][c] just[/c][00:02:18.200][c] making[/c][00:02:18.480][c] my[/c][00:02:18.640][c] interpretation[/c] again I'm just making my interpretation again I'm just making my interpretation I'll[00:02:19.319][c] let[/c][00:02:19.440][c] you[/c][00:02:19.560][c] answer[/c][00:02:19.840][c] this[/c][00:02:20.319][c] um[/c][00:02:20.560][c] on[/c][00:02:20.720][c] your[/c][00:02:20.840][c] own[/c] I'll let you answer this um on your own I'll let you answer this um on your own but[00:02:21.599][c] it[/c][00:02:21.920][c] seems[/c][00:02:22.200][c] to[/c][00:02:22.319][c] me[/c][00:02:22.560][c] Ben[/c][00:02:22.840][c] that[/c][00:02:23.400][c] the[/c][00:02:23.560][c] Bitcoin[/c] but it seems to me Ben that the Bitcoin but it seems to me Ben that the Bitcoin price[00:02:24.319][c] is[/c][00:02:24.480][c] still[/c][00:02:25.280][c] roughly[/c][00:02:26.200][c] in[/c][00:02:26.440][c] line[/c][00:02:26.920][c] with[/c][00:02:27.120][c] some[/c] price is still roughly in line with some price is still roughly in line with some risk[00:02:27.720][c] assets[/c][00:02:28.120][c] it's[/c][00:02:28.239][c] just[/c][00:02:28.400][c] that[/c][00:02:28.599][c] the[/c][00:02:29.040][c] large[/c] risk assets it's just that the large risk assets it's just that the large Tech[00:02:29.599][c] stock[/c][00:02:30.000][c] the[/c][00:02:30.080][c] mag[/c][00:02:30.319][c] 7[/c][00:02:30.640][c] have[/c][00:02:30.840][c] just[/c][00:02:31.160][c] been[/c] Tech stock the mag 7 have just been Tech stock the mag 7 have just been having[00:02:31.599][c] their[/c][00:02:31.800][c] life[/c][00:02:32.760][c] a[/c][00:02:32.879][c] life[/c][00:02:33.080][c] of[/c][00:02:33.239][c] its[/c][00:02:33.360][c] own[/c][00:02:34.239][c] and[/c] having their life a life of its own and having their life a life of its own and so[00:02:34.920][c] that's[/c][00:02:35.200][c] diverged[/c][00:02:35.640][c] from[/c][00:02:35.760][c] the[/c][00:02:35.879][c] rest[/c][00:02:36.000][c] of[/c][00:02:36.120][c] the[/c] so that's diverged from the rest of the so that's diverged from the rest of the market[00:02:36.480][c] but[/c][00:02:36.599][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:02:37.000][c] still[/c][00:02:37.319][c] tracks[/c][00:02:37.680][c] stocks[/c] market but Bitcoin still tracks stocks market but Bitcoin still tracks stocks anyway[00:02:38.959][c] that's[/c][00:02:39.159][c] my[/c][00:02:39.400][c] take[/c][00:02:39.959][c] um[/c][00:02:40.080][c] feel[/c][00:02:40.280][c] free[/c][00:02:40.480][c] to[/c] anyway that's my take um feel free to anyway that's my take um feel free to disagree[00:02:41.080][c] what's[/c][00:02:41.239][c] your[/c][00:02:41.400][c] take[/c][00:02:42.000][c] yeah[/c][00:02:42.120][c] no[/c][00:02:42.280][c] I[/c][00:02:42.319][c] mean[/c] disagree what's your take yeah no I mean disagree what's your take yeah no I mean I[00:02:42.599][c] think[/c][00:02:42.879][c] uh[/c][00:02:43.080][c] I[/c][00:02:43.159][c] think[/c][00:02:43.360][c] crypto[/c][00:02:43.680][c] in[/c][00:02:43.800][c] general[/c][00:02:44.080][c] is[/c] I think uh I think crypto in general is I think uh I think crypto in general is further[00:02:44.519][c] up[/c][00:02:44.680][c] the[/c][00:02:44.800][c] risk[/c][00:02:45.120][c] curve[/c][00:02:45.760][c] uh[/c][00:02:45.959][c] than[/c][00:02:46.400][c] you[/c] further up the risk curve uh than you further up the risk curve uh than you know[00:02:46.720][c] a[/c][00:02:46.840][c] lot[/c][00:02:46.959][c] of[/c][00:02:47.080][c] other[/c][00:02:47.239][c] risk[/c][00:02:47.599][c] assets[/c][00:02:48.080][c] which[/c][00:02:48.159][c] is[/c] know a lot of other risk assets which is know a lot of other risk assets which is why[00:02:49.120][c] they[/c][00:02:49.280][c] tend[/c][00:02:49.519][c] to[/c][00:02:49.640][c] do[/c][00:02:50.159][c] very[/c][00:02:50.440][c] very[/c][00:02:50.680][c] very[/c][00:02:50.920][c] well[/c] why they tend to do very very very well why they tend to do very very very well when[00:02:51.599][c] market[/c][00:02:52.159][c] conditions[/c][00:02:52.640][c] allow[/c][00:02:53.000][c] for[/c][00:02:53.200][c] it[/c][00:02:53.560][c] and[/c] when market conditions allow for it and when market conditions allow for it and they[00:02:54.319][c] also[/c][00:02:54.560][c] tend[/c][00:02:54.720][c] to[/c][00:02:54.840][c] sell[/c][00:02:55.159][c] off[/c][00:02:55.560][c] sooner[/c][00:02:56.040][c] than[/c] they also tend to sell off sooner than they also tend to sell off sooner than other[00:02:56.519][c] asset[/c][00:02:56.879][c] classes[/c][00:02:57.640][c] uh[/c][00:02:57.760][c] referring[/c][00:02:58.080][c] to[/c] other asset classes uh referring to other asset classes uh referring to cryptocurrencies[00:02:59.519][c] it[/c][00:02:59.640][c] is[/c][00:02:59.959][c] true[/c][00:03:00.159][c] I[/c][00:03:00.200][c] mean[/c][00:03:00.319][c] if[/c] cryptocurrencies it is true I mean if cryptocurrencies it is true I mean if you[00:03:00.560][c] look[/c][00:03:00.720][c] at[/c][00:03:00.879][c] let[/c][00:03:00.959][c] me[/c][00:03:01.040][c] go[/c][00:03:01.120][c] ahead[/c][00:03:01.280][c] and[/c][00:03:01.360][c] share[/c][00:03:01.640][c] my[/c] you look at let me go ahead and share my you look at let me go ahead and share my screen[00:03:02.159][c] here[/c] um[00:03:06.799][c] let[/c][00:03:06.920][c] me[/c][00:03:07.200][c] figure[/c][00:03:07.519][c] out[/c][00:03:08.080][c] how[/c][00:03:08.200][c] to[/c][00:03:08.400][c] do[/c][00:03:08.680][c] that[/c] um let me figure out how to do that um let me figure out how to do that there[00:03:09.159][c] we[/c][00:03:09.280][c] go[/c][00:03:09.480][c] share[/c][00:03:09.840][c] screen[/c][00:03:10.720][c] so[/c][00:03:11.319][c] one[/c][00:03:11.440][c] of[/c][00:03:11.560][c] the[/c] there we go share screen so one of the there we go share screen so one of the things[00:03:11.959][c] that[/c][00:03:12.200][c] I've[/c][00:03:12.799][c] I've[/c][00:03:12.920][c] looked[/c][00:03:13.120][c] a[/c][00:03:13.200][c] lot[/c][00:03:13.360][c] at[/c] things that I've I've looked a lot at things that I've I've looked a lot at are[00:03:14.000][c] you[/c][00:03:14.080][c] can[/c][00:03:14.200][c] look[/c][00:03:14.319][c] at[/c][00:03:14.440][c] correlation[/c] are you can look at correlation are you can look at correlation coefficients[00:03:15.519][c] right[/c][00:03:15.640][c] and[/c][00:03:16.120][c] and[/c][00:03:16.239][c] this[/c][00:03:16.360][c] is[/c][00:03:16.519][c] a[/c][00:03:16.680][c] a[/c] coefficients right and and this is a a coefficients right and and this is a a piercing[00:03:17.200][c] correlation[/c][00:03:17.720][c] coefficient[/c][00:03:18.760][c] Matrix[/c] piercing correlation coefficient Matrix piercing correlation coefficient Matrix between[00:03:20.159][c] you[/c][00:03:20.280][c] know[/c][00:03:20.519][c] tmc's[/c][00:03:21.080][c] total[/c][00:03:21.319][c] market[/c][00:03:21.599][c] cap[/c] between you know tmc's total market cap between you know tmc's total market cap you[00:03:21.879][c] got[/c][00:03:22.080][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:03:22.480][c] e[/c][00:03:22.760][c] the[/c][00:03:22.920][c] S&P[/c][00:03:23.920][c] Tesla[/c][00:03:24.319][c] Apple[/c] you got Bitcoin e the S&P Tesla Apple you got Bitcoin e the S&P Tesla Apple Amazon[00:03:24.959][c] alphabet[/c][00:03:25.440][c] dxy[/c][00:03:26.200][c] and[/c][00:03:26.319][c] then[/c][00:03:26.599][c] various[/c] Amazon alphabet dxy and then various Amazon alphabet dxy and then various precious[00:03:27.239][c] metals[/c][00:03:27.640][c] as[/c][00:03:27.760][c] you[/c][00:03:27.879][c] go[/c][00:03:28.000][c] further[/c][00:03:28.239][c] and[/c] precious metals as you go further and precious metals as you go further and further[00:03:28.640][c] out[/c][00:03:29.239][c] and[/c][00:03:29.319][c] so[/c][00:03:29.439][c] you[/c][00:03:29.560][c] can[/c][00:03:29.840][c] see[/c][00:03:29.920][c] that[/c] further out and so you can see that further out and so you can see that Bitcoin[00:03:30.519][c] over[/c][00:03:30.680][c] the[/c][00:03:30.840][c] last[/c][00:03:31.000][c] 60[/c][00:03:31.360][c] days[/c][00:03:31.640][c] has[/c][00:03:31.799][c] been[/c] Bitcoin over the last 60 days has been Bitcoin over the last 60 days has been very[00:03:32.159][c] highly[/c][00:03:32.400][c] correlated[/c][00:03:32.879][c] to[/c][00:03:33.000][c] other[/c] very highly correlated to other very highly correlated to other cryptocurrencies[00:03:34.439][c] but[/c][00:03:34.560][c] it[/c][00:03:34.760][c] hasn't[/c][00:03:35.040][c] really[/c] cryptocurrencies but it hasn't really cryptocurrencies but it hasn't really been[00:03:35.439][c] correlated[/c][00:03:36.040][c] to[/c][00:03:36.360][c] equities[/c][00:03:36.879][c] except[/c][00:03:37.120][c] for[/c] been correlated to equities except for been correlated to equities except for maybe[00:03:37.519][c] the[/c][00:03:37.640][c] wrestle[/c][00:03:38.040][c] 2000[/c][00:03:38.599][c] as[/c][00:03:38.720][c] you[/c][00:03:38.840][c] mentioned[/c] maybe the wrestle 2000 as you mentioned maybe the wrestle 2000 as you mentioned and[00:03:39.680][c] it's[/c][00:03:39.840][c] been[/c][00:03:40.159][c] inversely[/c][00:03:40.799][c] correlated[/c][00:03:41.360][c] to[/c] and it's been inversely correlated to and it's been inversely correlated to Precious[00:03:41.959][c] medals[/c][00:03:42.280][c] now[/c][00:03:42.400][c] I[/c][00:03:42.480][c] think[/c][00:03:42.599][c] a[/c][00:03:42.720][c] lot[/c][00:03:42.840][c] of[/c] Precious medals now I think a lot of Precious medals now I think a lot of people[00:03:44.439][c] think[/c][00:03:44.840][c] that[/c][00:03:45.159][c] this[/c][00:03:45.280][c] is[/c][00:03:45.480][c] something[/c][00:03:45.879][c] that[/c] people think that this is something that people think that this is something that Bitcoin[00:03:46.680][c] hasn't[/c][00:03:47.040][c] seen[/c][00:03:47.439][c] before[/c][00:03:48.319][c] but[/c][00:03:48.480][c] in[/c][00:03:48.680][c] in[/c] Bitcoin hasn't seen before but in in Bitcoin hasn't seen before but in in reality[00:03:49.640][c] this[/c][00:03:49.760][c] is[/c][00:03:49.959][c] almost[/c][00:03:50.400][c] identical[/c][00:03:51.000][c] to[/c][00:03:51.200][c] what[/c] reality this is almost identical to what reality this is almost identical to what happened[00:03:51.760][c] to[/c][00:03:51.959][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:03:52.760][c] in[/c][00:03:52.959][c] 2019[/c][00:03:53.599][c] I[/c][00:03:53.680][c] mean[/c][00:03:53.959][c] this[/c] happened to Bitcoin in 2019 I mean this happened to Bitcoin in 2019 I mean this is[00:03:54.319][c] bit[/c][00:03:54.599][c] the[/c][00:03:54.720][c] the[/c][00:03:54.840][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:03:55.200][c] chart[/c][00:03:55.840][c] overlaid[/c] is bit the the Bitcoin chart overlaid is bit the the Bitcoin chart overlaid with[00:03:56.599][c] the[/c][00:03:56.799][c] uh[/c][00:03:56.959][c] the[/c][00:03:57.079][c] NASDAQ[/c][00:03:58.079][c] if[/c][00:03:58.159][c] you[/c][00:03:58.319][c] look[/c][00:03:58.480][c] at[/c] with the uh the NASDAQ if you look at with the uh the NASDAQ if you look at what[00:03:59.159][c] essentially[/c][00:03:59.480][c] happened[/c][00:03:59.959][c] in[/c][00:04:00.120][c] 2019[/c][00:04:00.799][c] the[/c] what essentially happened in 2019 the what essentially happened in 2019 the FED[00:04:01.200][c] cut[/c][00:04:01.480][c] rates[/c][00:04:02.040][c] in[/c][00:04:02.280][c] July[/c][00:04:02.720][c] so[/c][00:04:02.879][c] let[/c][00:04:02.959][c] me[/c][00:04:03.079][c] just[/c] FED cut rates in July so let me just FED cut rates in July so let me just overlay[00:04:03.920][c] us[/c][00:04:04.360][c] interest[/c][00:04:04.680][c] rates[/c][00:04:04.879][c] on[/c][00:04:05.040][c] the[/c][00:04:05.120][c] ter[/c][00:04:05.480][c] so[/c] overlay us interest rates on the ter so overlay us interest rates on the ter so we[00:04:05.640][c] can[/c][00:04:05.760][c] all[/c][00:04:05.879][c] see[/c][00:04:06.120][c] that[/c][00:04:06.560][c] since[/c][00:04:06.879][c] green[/c][00:04:07.079][c] line[/c][00:04:07.200][c] is[/c] we can all see that since green line is we can all see that since green line is interest[00:04:07.760][c] rates[/c][00:04:08.280][c] you[/c][00:04:08.360][c] can[/c][00:04:08.519][c] see[/c][00:04:08.680][c] that[/c][00:04:08.799][c] as[/c][00:04:08.959][c] the[/c] interest rates you can see that as the interest rates you can see that as the FED[00:04:09.280][c] cut[/c][00:04:09.599][c] rates[/c][00:04:10.599][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:04:11.200][c] diverged[/c][00:04:12.200][c] from[/c][00:04:12.480][c] the[/c] FED cut rates Bitcoin diverged from the FED cut rates Bitcoin diverged from the NASDAQ[00:04:13.799][c] um[/c][00:04:13.959][c] and[/c][00:04:14.040][c] of[/c][00:04:14.159][c] course[/c][00:04:14.360][c] it[/c][00:04:14.480][c] did[/c][00:04:14.720][c] pick[/c][00:04:14.920][c] up[/c] NASDAQ um and of course it did pick up NASDAQ um and of course it did pick up the[00:04:15.159][c] following[/c][00:04:15.680][c] year[/c][00:04:16.680][c] but[/c][00:04:16.880][c] not[/c][00:04:17.079][c] until[/c][00:04:17.359][c] the[/c] the following year but not until the the following year but not until the last[00:04:17.720][c] rate[/c][00:04:18.040][c] cut[/c][00:04:18.799][c] and[/c][00:04:19.160][c] and[/c][00:04:19.359][c] and[/c][00:04:19.479][c] not[/c][00:04:19.680][c] until[/c][00:04:20.160][c] QE[/c] last rate cut and and and not until QE last rate cut and and and not until QE began[00:04:21.720][c] and[/c][00:04:21.840][c] that[/c][00:04:22.000][c] began[/c][00:04:22.360][c] I[/c][00:04:22.479][c] believe[/c][00:04:22.800][c] starting[/c] began and that began I believe starting began and that began I believe starting in[00:04:23.479][c] in[/c][00:04:23.759][c] Q3[/c][00:04:24.440][c] of[/c][00:04:24.600][c] 2019[/c][00:04:25.240][c] and[/c][00:04:25.360][c] that's[/c][00:04:25.479][c] when[/c][00:04:25.680][c] Bitcoin[/c] in in Q3 of 2019 and that's when Bitcoin in in Q3 of 2019 and that's when Bitcoin finally[00:04:26.440][c] started[/c][00:04:26.720][c] to[/c][00:04:26.840][c] go[/c][00:04:27.000][c] back[/c][00:04:27.120][c] up[/c][00:04:27.320][c] of[/c][00:04:27.400][c] course[/c] finally started to go back up of course finally started to go back up of course we[00:04:27.680][c] did[/c][00:04:27.840][c] get[/c][00:04:27.960][c] the[/c][00:04:28.160][c] pandemic[/c][00:04:29.160][c] which[/c][00:04:29.479][c] you[/c][00:04:29.720][c] you[/c] we did get the pandemic which you you we did get the pandemic which you you know[00:04:30.080][c] it's[/c][00:04:30.199][c] hard[/c][00:04:30.320][c] to[/c][00:04:30.479][c] predict[/c][00:04:30.800][c] stuff[/c][00:04:31.039][c] like[/c] know it's hard to predict stuff like know it's hard to predict stuff like that[00:04:31.919][c] but[/c][00:04:32.120][c] that's[/c][00:04:32.280][c] ultimately[/c][00:04:32.759][c] what[/c][00:04:32.880][c] happened[/c] that but that's ultimately what happened that but that's ultimately what happened and[00:04:33.360][c] so[/c][00:04:33.479][c] if[/c][00:04:33.560][c] you[/c][00:04:33.680][c] look[/c][00:04:33.840][c] at[/c][00:04:33.960][c] it[/c][00:04:34.160][c] now[/c][00:04:34.840][c] you[/c][00:04:34.919][c] can[/c] and so if you look at it now you can and so if you look at it now you can kind[00:04:35.199][c] of[/c][00:04:35.280][c] see[/c][00:04:35.479][c] the[/c][00:04:35.560][c] same[/c][00:04:35.800][c] thing[/c][00:04:36.000][c] happening[/c] kind of see the same thing happening kind of see the same thing happening right[00:04:36.520][c] I[/c][00:04:36.600][c] mean[/c][00:04:37.280][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:04:38.160][c] has[/c][00:04:38.440][c] diverged[/c][00:04:39.080][c] here[/c] right I mean Bitcoin has diverged here right I mean Bitcoin has diverged here from[00:04:39.800][c] from[/c][00:04:40.160][c] the[/c][00:04:40.280][c] NASDAQ[/c][00:04:41.000][c] and[/c][00:04:41.199][c] it[/c][00:04:41.360][c] it[/c][00:04:41.560][c] still[/c] from from the NASDAQ and it it still from from the NASDAQ and it it still gives[00:04:42.199][c] me[/c][00:04:42.919][c] sort[/c][00:04:43.120][c] of[/c][00:04:43.360][c] like[/c][00:04:43.600][c] flashbacks[/c][00:04:44.400][c] of[/c][00:04:44.600][c] what[/c] gives me sort of like flashbacks of what gives me sort of like flashbacks of what ultimately[00:04:45.280][c] happened[/c][00:04:45.720][c] in[/c][00:04:45.880][c] 2019[/c][00:04:46.680][c] where[/c] ultimately happened in 2019 where ultimately happened in 2019 where Bitcoin[00:04:47.639][c] shows[/c][00:04:48.479][c] weakness[/c][00:04:49.479][c] um[/c][00:04:49.840][c] well[/c][00:04:50.240][c] before[/c] Bitcoin shows weakness um well before Bitcoin shows weakness um well before the[00:04:50.759][c] equity[/c][00:04:51.080][c] Market[/c][00:04:51.680][c] does[/c][00:04:52.680][c] uh[/c][00:04:52.880][c] by[/c][00:04:53.000][c] the[/c][00:04:53.120][c] way[/c][00:04:53.320][c] if[/c] the equity Market does uh by the way if the equity Market does uh by the way if you[00:04:53.520][c] take[/c][00:04:53.720][c] a[/c][00:04:53.840][c] look[/c][00:04:53.960][c] at[/c][00:04:54.039][c] the[/c][00:04:54.160][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:04:54.560][c] chart[/c][00:04:55.120][c] uh[/c] you take a look at the Bitcoin chart uh you take a look at the Bitcoin chart uh going[00:04:55.520][c] back[/c][00:04:55.639][c] to[/c][00:04:55.960][c] 2021[/c][00:04:56.960][c] the[/c][00:04:57.240][c] um[/c][00:04:57.400][c] the[/c][00:04:57.560][c] last[/c][00:04:57.759][c] time[/c] going back to 2021 the um the last time going back to 2021 the um the last time we[00:04:58.080][c] had[/c][00:04:58.160][c] a[/c][00:04:58.320][c] bull[/c][00:04:58.639][c] cycle[/c][00:04:59.160][c] 202[/c] we had a bull cycle 202 we had a bull cycle 202 um[00:05:01.039][c] and[/c][00:05:01.440][c] uh[/c][00:05:01.800][c] late[/c][00:05:02.080][c] 2021[/c][00:05:02.759][c] Peak[/c][00:05:03.360][c] so[/c][00:05:03.639][c] it[/c][00:05:03.840][c] crashed[/c] um and uh late 2021 Peak so it crashed um and uh late 2021 Peak so it crashed in[00:05:04.919][c] 2022[/c][00:05:05.639][c] as[/c][00:05:05.720][c] you[/c][00:05:05.880][c] know[/c][00:05:06.720][c] but[/c][00:05:06.960][c] the[/c][00:05:07.120][c] double[/c][00:05:07.479][c] top[/c] in 2022 as you know but the double top in 2022 as you know but the double top made[00:05:08.000][c] in[/c][00:05:08.120][c] 2021[/c][00:05:08.800][c] can[/c][00:05:08.919][c] we[/c][00:05:09.080][c] just[/c][00:05:09.240][c] revisit[/c][00:05:09.759][c] that[/c] made in 2021 can we just revisit that made in 2021 can we just revisit that what[00:05:10.199][c] caused[/c][00:05:10.520][c] your[/c][00:05:10.720][c] first[/c][00:05:11.039][c] initial[/c][00:05:11.400][c] drop[/c] what caused your first initial drop what caused your first initial drop because[00:05:11.960][c] keep[/c][00:05:12.080][c] in[/c][00:05:12.199][c] mind[/c][00:05:12.400][c] the[/c][00:05:12.560][c] stock[/c][00:05:12.759][c] markets[/c] because keep in mind the stock markets because keep in mind the stock markets continued[00:05:13.639][c] to[/c][00:05:13.720][c] grind[/c][00:05:14.039][c] up[/c][00:05:14.280][c] higher[/c][00:05:15.080][c] throughout[/c] continued to grind up higher throughout continued to grind up higher throughout 20121[00:05:16.199][c] it[/c][00:05:16.320][c] wasn't[/c][00:05:16.639][c] until[/c][00:05:17.320][c] 2022[/c][00:05:18.039][c] or[/c][00:05:18.199][c] late[/c][00:05:18.440][c] 2021[/c] 20121 it wasn't until 2022 or late 2021 20121 it wasn't until 2022 or late 2021 that[00:05:19.240][c] we[/c][00:05:19.360][c] saw[/c][00:05:20.080][c] a[/c][00:05:20.280][c] coincident[/c][00:05:20.800][c] decline[/c][00:05:21.120][c] in[/c][00:05:21.240][c] the[/c] that we saw a coincident decline in the that we saw a coincident decline in the stock[00:05:21.639][c] market[/c][00:05:21.960][c] so[/c][00:05:22.160][c] what[/c][00:05:22.319][c] caused[/c][00:05:22.600][c] the[/c][00:05:22.800][c] first[/c] stock market so what caused the first stock market so what caused the first drop[00:05:24.280][c] in[/c] drop in drop in Bitcoin[00:05:26.039][c] one[/c][00:05:26.160][c] of[/c][00:05:26.280][c] the[/c][00:05:26.360][c] interesting[/c][00:05:26.680][c] things[/c] Bitcoin one of the interesting things Bitcoin one of the interesting things about[00:05:27.120][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:05:27.800][c] is[/c][00:05:28.520][c] you[/c][00:05:28.639][c] know[/c][00:05:29.080][c] we[/c][00:05:29.199][c] can[/c][00:05:29.319][c] always[/c] about Bitcoin is you know we can always about Bitcoin is you know we can always come[00:05:29.800][c] up[/c][00:05:29.880][c] with[/c][00:05:29.960][c] a[/c][00:05:30.039][c] narrative[/c][00:05:30.639][c] for[/c][00:05:30.840][c] for[/c][00:05:31.000][c] what's[/c] come up with a narrative for for what's come up with a narrative for for what's causing[00:05:31.639][c] it[/c][00:05:32.000][c] right[/c][00:05:32.440][c] yeah[/c][00:05:32.720][c] um[/c][00:05:33.319][c] I[/c][00:05:33.560][c] generally[/c] causing it right yeah um I generally causing it right yeah um I generally think[00:05:34.400][c] what[/c][00:05:34.600][c] happened[/c][00:05:34.880][c] in[/c][00:05:35.000][c] 2021[/c][00:05:35.600][c] is[/c][00:05:35.759][c] this[/c][00:05:35.880][c] so[/c] think what happened in 2021 is this so think what happened in 2021 is this so if[00:05:36.039][c] you[/c][00:05:36.120][c] look[/c][00:05:36.240][c] at[/c][00:05:36.360][c] the[/c][00:05:36.520][c] last[/c][00:05:36.720][c] three[/c][00:05:36.919][c] Peaks[/c] if you look at the last three Peaks if you look at the last three Peaks right[00:05:37.880][c] Q4[/c][00:05:38.440][c] 2013[/c][00:05:39.280][c] Q4[/c][00:05:40.160][c] 2017[/c][00:05:41.160][c] and[/c][00:05:41.280][c] then[/c][00:05:41.479][c] Q4[/c][00:05:42.120][c] of[/c] right Q4 2013 Q4 2017 and then Q4 of right Q4 2013 Q4 2017 and then Q4 of 2021[00:05:43.240][c] what's[/c][00:05:43.440][c] interesting[/c][00:05:43.840][c] is[/c][00:05:44.160][c] after[/c][00:05:44.520][c] a[/c][00:05:44.720][c] major[/c] 2021 what's interesting is after a major 2021 what's interesting is after a major top[00:05:46.039][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:05:46.479][c] then[/c][00:05:46.680][c] goes[/c][00:05:47.160][c] back[/c][00:05:47.400][c] to[/c][00:05:47.639][c] its[/c][00:05:47.840][c] 50e[/c] top Bitcoin then goes back to its 50e top Bitcoin then goes back to its 50e moving[00:05:48.720][c] average[/c][00:05:49.160][c] and[/c][00:05:49.240][c] then[/c][00:05:49.360][c] gets[/c][00:05:49.560][c] a[/c][00:05:49.759][c] dead[/c][00:05:50.080][c] cat[/c] moving average and then gets a dead cat moving average and then gets a dead cat bounce[00:05:50.680][c] that's[/c][00:05:50.880][c] what[/c][00:05:50.960][c] we[/c][00:05:51.080][c] saw[/c][00:05:51.240][c] in[/c][00:05:51.360][c] 2013[/c][00:05:52.280][c] and[/c] bounce that's what we saw in 2013 and bounce that's what we saw in 2013 and then[00:05:52.520][c] here[/c][00:05:52.639][c] you[/c][00:05:52.759][c] saw[/c][00:05:52.960][c] it[/c][00:05:53.080][c] in[/c][00:05:53.199][c] 2017[/c][00:05:53.840][c] as[/c][00:05:53.960][c] well[/c] then here you saw it in 2017 as well then here you saw it in 2017 as well back[00:05:54.280][c] to[/c][00:05:54.440][c] the[/c][00:05:54.560][c] 50[/c][00:05:54.840][c] we[/c][00:05:55.080][c] dead[/c][00:05:55.400][c] cat[/c][00:05:55.600][c] bounce[/c][00:05:56.319][c] it[/c] back to the 50 we dead cat bounce it back to the 50 we dead cat bounce it almost[00:05:56.800][c] seems[/c][00:05:57.199][c] like[/c][00:05:57.560][c] the[/c][00:05:57.759][c] real[/c][00:05:58.520][c] top[/c][00:05:58.960][c] in[/c][00:05:59.120][c] 202[/c] almost seems like the real top in 202 almost seems like the real top in 202 one[00:06:00.680][c] that[/c][00:06:01.000][c] had[/c][00:06:01.160][c] a[/c][00:06:01.280][c] lot[/c][00:06:01.400][c] more[/c][00:06:01.720][c] credibility[/c][00:06:02.680][c] was[/c] one that had a lot more credibility was one that had a lot more credibility was the[00:06:03.960][c] April[/c][00:06:04.360][c] top[/c][00:06:04.840][c] and[/c][00:06:04.960][c] then[/c][00:06:05.160][c] this[/c][00:06:05.280][c] was[/c][00:06:05.520][c] just[/c][00:06:05.880][c] a[/c][00:06:06.520][c] a[/c] the April top and then this was just a a the April top and then this was just a a dead[00:06:06.960][c] capat[/c][00:06:07.160][c] bounce[/c][00:06:07.599][c] that[/c][00:06:07.880][c] ultimately[/c][00:06:08.400][c] gave[/c] dead capat bounce that ultimately gave dead capat bounce that ultimately gave us[00:06:08.720][c] new[/c][00:06:08.960][c] highs[/c][00:06:09.400][c] which[/c][00:06:09.520][c] was[/c][00:06:09.880][c] different[/c][00:06:10.319][c] than[/c] us new highs which was different than us new highs which was different than what[00:06:10.599][c] we[/c][00:06:10.800][c] had[/c][00:06:10.960][c] seen[/c][00:06:11.840][c] in[/c][00:06:11.960][c] the[/c][00:06:12.160][c] last[/c][00:06:12.400][c] two[/c][00:06:12.639][c] cycles[/c] what we had seen in the last two cycles what we had seen in the last two cycles one[00:06:13.360][c] of[/c][00:06:13.440][c] the[/c][00:06:13.520][c] things[/c][00:06:13.680][c] I[/c][00:06:13.800][c] like[/c][00:06:13.960][c] to[/c][00:06:14.120][c] track[/c][00:06:14.800][c] with[/c] one of the things I like to track with one of the things I like to track with Bitcoin[00:06:16.039][c] is[/c][00:06:16.319][c] is[/c][00:06:16.479][c] something[/c][00:06:16.800][c] that's[/c][00:06:16.960][c] called[/c] Bitcoin is is something that's called Bitcoin is is something that's called the[00:06:17.479][c] uh[/c][00:06:17.599][c] the[/c][00:06:17.680][c] risk[/c][00:06:17.919][c] metric[/c][00:06:18.360][c] and[/c][00:06:18.479][c] the[/c][00:06:18.599][c] reason[/c][00:06:18.840][c] I[/c] the uh the risk metric and the reason I the uh the risk metric and the reason I look[00:06:19.120][c] at[/c][00:06:19.400][c] that[/c][00:06:19.960][c] is[/c][00:06:20.160][c] because[/c][00:06:20.919][c] again[/c][00:06:21.240][c] there's[/c] look at that is because again there's look at that is because again there's always[00:06:21.639][c] the[/c][00:06:21.759][c] narrative[/c][00:06:22.160][c] for[/c][00:06:22.400][c] why[/c][00:06:22.720][c] you[/c][00:06:22.800][c] know[/c] always the narrative for why you know always the narrative for why you know why[00:06:23.240][c] price[/c][00:06:23.599][c] has[/c][00:06:23.720][c] to[/c][00:06:23.880][c] go[/c][00:06:24.039][c] down[/c][00:06:24.240][c] or[/c][00:06:24.400][c] or[/c][00:06:24.520][c] for[/c][00:06:24.800][c] to[/c][00:06:24.960][c] go[/c] why price has to go down or or for to go why price has to go down or or for to go up[00:06:25.639][c] but[/c][00:06:25.960][c] actually[/c][00:06:26.360][c] in[/c][00:06:26.599][c] 2021[/c][00:06:27.319][c] in[/c][00:06:27.479][c] early[/c][00:06:27.880][c] 2021[/c] up but actually in 2021 in early 2021 up but actually in 2021 in early 2021 that's[00:06:29.080][c] ultimately[/c][00:06:29.599][c] when[/c][00:06:29.759][c] the[/c][00:06:30.000][c] risk[/c][00:06:30.360][c] level[/c] that's ultimately when the risk level that's ultimately when the risk level for[00:06:31.080][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:06:32.080][c] uh[/c][00:06:32.280][c] went[/c][00:06:32.560][c] to[/c][00:06:32.800][c] the[/c][00:06:33.000][c] point[/c][00:06:33.360][c] you[/c] for Bitcoin uh went to the point you for Bitcoin uh went to the point you know[00:06:33.599][c] the[/c][00:06:33.680][c] 0.[/c][00:06:33.960][c] N[/c][00:06:34.319][c] to1[/c][00:06:34.639][c] risk[/c][00:06:34.880][c] band[/c][00:06:35.160][c] and[/c][00:06:35.280][c] so[/c] know the 0. N to1 risk band and so know the 0. N to1 risk band and so normally[00:06:36.080][c] after[/c][00:06:36.599][c] that[/c][00:06:37.280][c] that's[/c][00:06:37.560][c] when[/c][00:06:37.800][c] Bitcoin[/c] normally after that that's when Bitcoin normally after that that's when Bitcoin sells[00:06:39.120][c] off[/c][00:06:39.440][c] of[/c][00:06:39.599][c] course[/c][00:06:39.800][c] there's[/c][00:06:39.960][c] going[/c][00:06:40.039][c] to[/c][00:06:40.160][c] be[/c] sells off of course there's going to be sells off of course there's going to be a[00:06:40.400][c] reason[/c][00:06:40.720][c] for[/c][00:06:40.880][c] it[/c][00:06:41.039][c] there's[/c][00:06:41.160][c] going[/c][00:06:41.240][c] to[/c][00:06:41.360][c] be[/c][00:06:41.440][c] a[/c] a reason for it there's going to be a a reason for it there's going to be a narrative[00:06:42.000][c] we[/c][00:06:42.080][c] could[/c][00:06:42.199][c] blame[/c][00:06:42.520][c] inflation[/c][00:06:43.120][c] we[/c] narrative we could blame inflation we narrative we could blame inflation we could[00:06:43.400][c] blame[/c][00:06:44.360][c] all[/c][00:06:44.520][c] sorts[/c][00:06:44.759][c] of[/c][00:06:44.960][c] things[/c][00:06:45.560][c] but[/c] could blame all sorts of things but could blame all sorts of things but ultimately[00:06:46.360][c] I[/c][00:06:46.520][c] I[/c][00:06:46.680][c] just[/c][00:06:46.919][c] think[/c][00:06:47.120][c] that[/c][00:06:47.280][c] the[/c] ultimately I I just think that the ultimately I I just think that the market[00:06:47.759][c] got[/c][00:06:48.160][c] extremely[/c][00:06:48.759][c] overheated[/c][00:06:49.759][c] very[/c] market got extremely overheated very market got extremely overheated very very[00:06:50.199][c] quickly[/c][00:06:50.680][c] probably[/c][00:06:50.960][c] caused[/c][00:06:51.319][c] a[/c][00:06:51.440][c] lot[/c][00:06:51.759][c] by[/c] very quickly probably caused a lot by very quickly probably caused a lot by you[00:06:52.479][c] know[/c][00:06:53.000][c] um[/c][00:06:53.919][c] micro[/c][00:06:54.360][c] strategy[/c][00:06:54.880][c] was[/c][00:06:55.039][c] very[/c] you know um micro strategy was very you know um micro strategy was very vocal[00:06:55.599][c] back[/c][00:06:55.759][c] then[/c][00:06:55.960][c] Michael[/c][00:06:56.240][c] sailor[/c][00:06:56.639][c] very[/c] vocal back then Michael sailor very vocal back then Michael sailor very vocal[00:06:57.120][c] back[/c][00:06:57.319][c] then[/c][00:06:57.520][c] about[/c][00:06:57.759][c] being[/c][00:06:57.919][c] pro[/c][00:06:58.199][c] Bitcoin[/c] vocal back then about being pro Bitcoin vocal back then about being pro Bitcoin adding[00:06:58.919][c] it[/c][00:06:59.039][c] to[/c][00:06:59.160][c] their[/c][00:06:59.280][c] B[/c][00:06:59.800][c] sheet[/c][00:07:00.319][c] I[/c][00:07:00.400][c] think[/c][00:07:00.560][c] that[/c] adding it to their B sheet I think that adding it to their B sheet I think that just[00:07:00.840][c] led[/c][00:07:01.000][c] to[/c][00:07:01.160][c] a[/c][00:07:01.280][c] lot[/c][00:07:01.680][c] you[/c][00:07:01.759][c] know[/c][00:07:02.000][c] a[/c][00:07:02.120][c] lot[/c][00:07:02.400][c] perhaps[/c] just led to a lot you know a lot perhaps just led to a lot you know a lot perhaps more[00:07:02.960][c] quicker[/c][00:07:03.800][c] speculation[/c][00:07:04.800][c] uh[/c][00:07:04.919][c] and[/c][00:07:05.039][c] more[/c] more quicker speculation uh and more more quicker speculation uh and more rampant[00:07:05.800][c] speculation[/c][00:07:06.599][c] sooner[/c][00:07:07.080][c] in[/c][00:07:07.199][c] the[/c][00:07:07.360][c] cycle[/c] rampant speculation sooner in the cycle rampant speculation sooner in the cycle than[00:07:08.280][c] we[/c][00:07:08.400][c] normally[/c][00:07:08.800][c] got[/c][00:07:09.039][c] and[/c][00:07:09.240][c] I[/c][00:07:09.360][c] I[/c][00:07:09.520][c] I[/c][00:07:09.599][c] do[/c][00:07:09.919][c] think[/c] than we normally got and I I I do think than we normally got and I I I do think that[00:07:10.400][c] when[/c][00:07:10.520][c] you[/c][00:07:10.639][c] go[/c][00:07:10.759][c] to[/c][00:07:10.960][c] those[/c][00:07:11.199][c] high[/c][00:07:11.440][c] risk[/c] that when you go to those high risk that when you go to those high risk levels[00:07:12.800][c] it[/c][00:07:13.000][c] warrants[/c][00:07:13.560][c] having[/c][00:07:13.960][c] a[/c][00:07:14.160][c] a[/c][00:07:14.280][c] longer[/c] levels it warrants having a a longer levels it warrants having a a longer bare[00:07:14.800][c] Market[/c][00:07:15.199][c] whatever[/c][00:07:15.440][c] the[/c][00:07:15.560][c] reason[/c][00:07:15.759][c] may[/c][00:07:15.960][c] be[/c] bare Market whatever the reason may be bare Market whatever the reason may be does[00:07:17.039][c] it[/c][00:07:17.280][c] look[/c][00:07:17.560][c] like[/c][00:07:17.840][c] to[/c][00:07:18.000][c] you[/c][00:07:18.280][c] does[/c][00:07:18.440][c] it[/c][00:07:18.599][c] look[/c] does it look like to you does it look does it look like to you does it look like[00:07:19.039][c] that[/c][00:07:19.240][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:07:19.560][c] is[/c][00:07:19.720][c] currently[/c][00:07:20.120][c] repeating[/c] like that Bitcoin is currently repeating like that Bitcoin is currently repeating late[00:07:21.120][c] 2021[/c][00:07:22.039][c] cycle[/c][00:07:22.840][c] I[/c][00:07:22.960][c] think[/c][00:07:23.280][c] no[/c][00:07:23.599][c] I[/c][00:07:23.720][c] so[/c][00:07:23.919][c] I[/c][00:07:24.199][c] I[/c] late 2021 cycle I think no I so I I late 2021 cycle I think no I so I I think[00:07:24.520][c] we're[/c][00:07:24.800][c] actually[/c][00:07:25.280][c] uh[/c][00:07:25.400][c] in[/c][00:07:25.599][c] 2019[/c][00:07:26.360][c] I[/c][00:07:26.440][c] think[/c] think we're actually uh in 2019 I think think we're actually uh in 2019 I think it's[00:07:26.639][c] more[/c][00:07:26.800][c] similar[/c][00:07:27.080][c] to[/c][00:07:27.160][c] 2019[/c][00:07:27.639][c] and[/c][00:07:27.720][c] there's[/c][00:07:27.879][c] a[/c] it's more similar to 2019 and there's a it's more similar to 2019 and there's a couple[00:07:28.120][c] of[/c][00:07:28.240][c] reasons[/c][00:07:28.560][c] for[/c][00:07:28.840][c] that[/c][00:07:29.400][c] um[/c] couple of reasons for that um couple of reasons for that um one[00:07:30.319][c] reason[/c][00:07:31.160][c] if[/c][00:07:31.280][c] you[/c][00:07:31.440][c] go[/c][00:07:31.680][c] look[/c][00:07:32.400][c] one[/c][00:07:32.520][c] of[/c][00:07:32.639][c] the[/c][00:07:32.800][c] one[/c] one reason if you go look one of the one one reason if you go look one of the one of[00:07:32.960][c] the[/c][00:07:33.039][c] metrics[/c][00:07:33.440][c] I[/c][00:07:33.560][c] follow[/c][00:07:33.960][c] is[/c][00:07:34.120][c] the[/c][00:07:34.280][c] social[/c] of the metrics I follow is the social of the metrics I follow is the social interest[00:07:35.120][c] in[/c][00:07:35.240][c] the[/c][00:07:35.400][c] crypto[/c][00:07:35.759][c] space[/c][00:07:36.000][c] so[/c][00:07:36.120][c] this[/c][00:07:36.240][c] is[/c] interest in the crypto space so this is interest in the crypto space so this is called[00:07:36.599][c] the[/c][00:07:36.800][c] social[/c][00:07:37.199][c] risk[/c][00:07:38.039][c] and[/c][00:07:38.160][c] it's[/c] called the social risk and it's called the social risk and it's essentially[00:07:38.800][c] made[/c][00:07:39.000][c] up[/c][00:07:39.160][c] of[/c][00:07:39.400][c] like[/c][00:07:39.680][c] people[/c][00:07:39.960][c] that[/c] essentially made up of like people that essentially made up of like people that watch[00:07:40.440][c] crypto[/c][00:07:40.919][c] YouTube[/c][00:07:41.280][c] channels[/c][00:07:41.840][c] people[/c] watch crypto YouTube channels people watch crypto YouTube channels people that[00:07:42.319][c] watch[/c][00:07:43.160][c] uh[/c][00:07:43.319][c] or[/c][00:07:43.599][c] they[/c][00:07:44.039][c] subscribers[/c] that watch uh or they subscribers that watch uh or they subscribers actually[00:07:45.319][c] if[/c][00:07:45.479][c] I[/c][00:07:45.639][c] if[/c][00:07:45.720][c] I[/c][00:07:45.840][c] just[/c][00:07:45.960][c] pull[/c][00:07:46.159][c] it[/c][00:07:46.240][c] up[/c][00:07:46.400][c] so[/c] actually if I if I just pull it up so actually if I if I just pull it up so you[00:07:46.599][c] can[/c][00:07:46.759][c] actually[/c][00:07:46.960][c] see[/c][00:07:47.159][c] the[/c][00:07:47.319][c] chart[/c][00:07:47.919][c] uh[/c][00:07:48.039][c] before[/c] you can actually see the chart uh before you can actually see the chart uh before I[00:07:48.560][c] I[/c][00:07:48.639][c] show[/c][00:07:48.800][c] you[/c][00:07:48.879][c] the[/c][00:07:49.000][c] risk[/c][00:07:49.240][c] level[/c][00:07:49.520][c] for[/c][00:07:49.639][c] it[/c][00:07:50.039][c] here[/c] I I show you the risk level for it here I I show you the risk level for it here is[00:07:50.599][c] uh[/c][00:07:50.759][c] YouTube[/c][00:07:51.159][c] views[/c][00:07:51.960][c] to[/c][00:07:52.400][c] I[/c][00:07:52.479][c] don't[/c][00:07:52.639][c] know[/c][00:07:52.800][c] some[/c] is uh YouTube views to I don't know some is uh YouTube views to I don't know some 20[00:07:53.599][c] or[/c][00:07:53.840][c] 30[/c][00:07:54.720][c] maybe[/c][00:07:55.000][c] more[/c][00:07:55.560][c] crypto[/c][00:07:55.960][c] YouTube[/c] 20 or 30 maybe more crypto YouTube 20 or 30 maybe more crypto YouTube channels[00:07:57.360][c] um[/c][00:07:57.560][c] so[/c][00:07:57.720][c] it[/c][00:07:57.800][c] just[/c][00:07:57.919][c] takes[/c][00:07:58.080][c] a[/c][00:07:58.199][c] moment[/c][00:07:58.360][c] to[/c] channels um so it just takes a moment to channels um so it just takes a moment to load[00:07:58.800][c] because[/c][00:07:58.919][c] it[/c][00:07:59.000][c] is[/c][00:07:59.120][c] quite[/c][00:07:59.280][c] a[/c][00:07:59.520][c] bit[/c][00:07:59.639][c] of[/c][00:07:59.759][c] data[/c] load because it is quite a bit of data load because it is quite a bit of data but[00:08:00.639][c] when[/c][00:08:00.759][c] it[/c][00:08:00.919][c] does[/c][00:08:01.120][c] load[/c][00:08:01.599][c] essentially[/c][00:08:02.000][c] what[/c] but when it does load essentially what but when it does load essentially what you'll[00:08:02.280][c] see[/c][00:08:02.520][c] is[/c][00:08:02.639][c] that[/c][00:08:02.960][c] back[/c][00:08:03.280][c] in[/c][00:08:03.879][c] 2021[/c][00:08:04.879][c] when[/c][00:08:05.039][c] we[/c] you'll see is that back in 2021 when we you'll see is that back in 2021 when we had[00:08:05.720][c] these[/c][00:08:06.080][c] this[/c][00:08:06.240][c] Mania[/c][00:08:06.800][c] phase[/c][00:08:07.560][c] you[/c][00:08:07.639][c] can[/c][00:08:07.759][c] see[/c] had these this Mania phase you can see had these this Mania phase you can see that[00:08:08.080][c] a[/c][00:08:08.280][c] ton[/c][00:08:08.560][c] of[/c][00:08:08.759][c] people[/c][00:08:09.039][c] were[/c][00:08:09.280][c] piling[/c][00:08:09.680][c] in[/c][00:08:10.440][c] uh[/c] that a ton of people were piling in uh that a ton of people were piling in uh to[00:08:10.840][c] watch[/c][00:08:11.440][c] YouTube[/c][00:08:12.120][c] uh[/c][00:08:12.240][c] and[/c][00:08:12.360][c] watch[/c][00:08:12.560][c] crypto[/c] to watch YouTube uh and watch crypto to watch YouTube uh and watch crypto YouTube[00:08:13.840][c] right[/c][00:08:14.599][c] and[/c][00:08:14.800][c] and[/c][00:08:14.960][c] and[/c][00:08:15.159][c] actually[/c][00:08:15.520][c] these[/c] YouTube right and and and actually these YouTube right and and and actually these these[00:08:15.919][c] channels[/c][00:08:16.319][c] over[/c][00:08:16.520][c] here[/c][00:08:16.680][c] were[/c][00:08:17.000][c] averaging[/c] these channels over here were averaging these channels over here were averaging at[00:08:17.879][c] the[/c][00:08:18.080][c] time[/c][00:08:18.599][c] about[/c][00:08:19.039][c] four[/c][00:08:19.440][c] million[/c][00:08:19.919][c] views[/c][00:08:20.680][c] per[/c] at the time about four million views per at the time about four million views per day[00:08:22.080][c] now[/c][00:08:22.479][c] those[/c][00:08:22.759][c] same[/c][00:08:23.080][c] channels[/c][00:08:23.879][c] are[/c][00:08:24.120][c] only[/c] day now those same channels are only day now those same channels are only averaging[00:08:25.159][c] around[/c] averaging around averaging around 850,000[00:08:27.479][c] views[/c][00:08:28.479][c] per[/c][00:08:28.720][c] day[/c][00:08:29.199][c] so[/c][00:08:29.720][c] we're[/c][00:08:29.960][c] not[/c][00:08:30.400][c] at[/c] 850,000 views per day so we're not at 850,000 views per day so we're not at the[00:08:30.879][c] extreme[/c][00:08:31.599][c] level[/c][00:08:32.599][c] of[/c][00:08:33.039][c] of[/c][00:08:33.279][c] sort[/c][00:08:33.440][c] of[/c][00:08:33.719][c] social[/c] the extreme level of of sort of social the extreme level of of sort of social speculation[00:08:35.039][c] that[/c][00:08:35.159][c] we[/c][00:08:35.320][c] saw[/c][00:08:35.680][c] back[/c][00:08:35.839][c] in[/c][00:08:36.560][c] 2021[/c][00:08:37.519][c] but[/c] speculation that we saw back in 2021 but speculation that we saw back in 2021 but what[00:08:37.800][c] it[/c][00:08:38.080][c] what[/c][00:08:38.159][c] it[/c][00:08:38.320][c] does[/c][00:08:38.599][c] look[/c][00:08:38.839][c] similar[/c][00:08:39.200][c] to[/c][00:08:39.839][c] if[/c] what it what it does look similar to if what it what it does look similar to if you[00:08:40.080][c] go[/c][00:08:40.240][c] back[/c][00:08:40.399][c] and[/c][00:08:40.560][c] you[/c][00:08:40.719][c] look[/c][00:08:40.880][c] at[/c][00:08:41.080][c] the[/c][00:08:41.240][c] social[/c] you go back and you look at the social you go back and you look at the social risk[00:08:42.120][c] which[/c][00:08:42.240][c] does[/c][00:08:42.519][c] take[/c][00:08:42.760][c] into[/c][00:08:43.080][c] account[/c][00:08:43.760][c] this[/c] risk which does take into account this risk which does take into account this chart[00:08:44.200][c] as[/c][00:08:44.320][c] well[/c][00:08:44.440][c] as[/c][00:08:44.560][c] four[/c][00:08:44.839][c] other[/c][00:08:45.040][c] charts[/c][00:08:45.880][c] you[/c] chart as well as four other charts you chart as well as four other charts you can[00:08:46.200][c] see[/c][00:08:47.040][c] that[/c][00:08:47.240][c] social[/c][00:08:47.600][c] risk[/c][00:08:47.920][c] came[/c][00:08:48.080][c] down[/c][00:08:48.240][c] to[/c][00:08:48.440][c] a[/c] can see that social risk came down to a can see that social risk came down to a low[00:08:49.800][c] and[/c][00:08:49.920][c] then[/c][00:08:50.040][c] it[/c][00:08:50.279][c] bounced[/c][00:08:51.240][c] and[/c][00:08:51.320][c] then[/c][00:08:51.440][c] it's[/c] low and then it bounced and then it's low and then it bounced and then it's just[00:08:51.760][c] kind[/c][00:08:51.880][c] of[/c][00:08:52.320][c] down[/c][00:08:52.680][c] here[/c][00:08:53.240][c] it[/c][00:08:53.399][c] looks[/c][00:08:53.800][c] very[/c] just kind of down here it looks very just kind of down here it looks very very[00:08:54.440][c] similar[/c][00:08:54.800][c] to[/c][00:08:55.000][c] me[/c][00:08:55.839][c] like[/c][00:08:56.040][c] 2019[/c][00:08:56.839][c] right[/c][00:08:57.000][c] so[/c][00:08:57.160][c] I[/c] very similar to me like 2019 right so I very similar to me like 2019 right so I don't[00:08:57.519][c] really[/c][00:08:57.839][c] think[/c][00:08:58.079][c] that[/c][00:08:58.240][c] what[/c][00:08:58.360][c] we[/c][00:08:58.519][c] just[/c] don't really think that what we just don't really think that what we just experienced[00:08:59.519][c] was[/c][00:08:59.720][c] a[/c][00:08:59.920][c] 2021[/c][00:09:00.920][c] style[/c][00:09:01.560][c] Mania[/c][00:09:02.040][c] phase[/c] experienced was a 2021 style Mania phase experienced was a 2021 style Mania phase just[00:09:02.519][c] because[/c][00:09:02.800][c] we[/c][00:09:03.040][c] retail[/c][00:09:03.519][c] never[/c][00:09:03.800][c] really[/c] just because we retail never really just because we retail never really returned[00:09:05.000][c] which[/c][00:09:05.120][c] has[/c][00:09:05.240][c] been[/c][00:09:05.360][c] one[/c][00:09:05.440][c] of[/c][00:09:05.560][c] the[/c] returned which has been one of the returned which has been one of the interesting[00:09:06.000][c] things[/c][00:09:06.160][c] it's[/c][00:09:06.320][c] been[/c][00:09:06.480][c] one[/c][00:09:06.560][c] of[/c][00:09:06.680][c] the[/c] interesting things it's been one of the interesting things it's been one of the really[00:09:08.040][c] um[/c][00:09:08.480][c] confusing[/c][00:09:09.120][c] things[/c][00:09:09.440][c] about[/c][00:09:09.640][c] the[/c] really um confusing things about the really um confusing things about the market[00:09:10.040][c] I[/c][00:09:10.120][c] think[/c][00:09:10.240][c] for[/c][00:09:10.360][c] a[/c][00:09:10.440][c] lot[/c][00:09:10.560][c] of[/c][00:09:10.640][c] people[/c][00:09:10.880][c] is[/c] market I think for a lot of people is market I think for a lot of people is because[00:09:11.279][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:09:11.640][c] went[/c][00:09:11.760][c] to[/c][00:09:11.959][c] all-time[/c][00:09:12.519][c] Highs[/c] because Bitcoin went to all-time Highs because Bitcoin went to all-time Highs but[00:09:14.160][c] we[/c][00:09:14.360][c] never[/c][00:09:14.600][c] really[/c][00:09:14.760][c] saw[/c][00:09:15.120][c] that[/c][00:09:15.399][c] the[/c][00:09:15.600][c] return[/c] but we never really saw that the return but we never really saw that the return of[00:09:16.000][c] retail[/c][00:09:17.000][c] and[/c][00:09:17.519][c] and[/c][00:09:17.680][c] again[/c][00:09:17.959][c] one[/c][00:09:18.160][c] more[/c][00:09:18.480][c] piece[/c] of retail and and again one more piece of retail and and again one more piece of[00:09:18.839][c] evidence[/c][00:09:19.200][c] to[/c][00:09:19.519][c] suggest[/c][00:09:19.959][c] that[/c][00:09:20.160][c] 2019[/c][00:09:21.040][c] is[/c][00:09:21.279][c] not[/c] of evidence to suggest that 2019 is not of evidence to suggest that 2019 is not the[00:09:21.839][c] worst[/c][00:09:22.600][c] comparison[/c][00:09:23.600][c] is[/c][00:09:23.839][c] it's[/c][00:09:24.000][c] actually[/c][00:09:24.200][c] a[/c] the worst comparison is it's actually a the worst comparison is it's actually a very[00:09:24.640][c] similar[/c][00:09:25.200][c] move[/c][00:09:25.680][c] in[/c][00:09:25.839][c] terms[/c][00:09:26.120][c] of[/c][00:09:26.560][c] percent[/c][00:09:27.560][c] uh[/c] very similar move in terms of percent uh very similar move in terms of percent uh if[00:09:27.720][c] you[/c][00:09:27.839][c] were[/c][00:09:27.959][c] to[/c][00:09:28.200][c] take[/c][00:09:28.480][c] a[/c][00:09:28.720][c] a[/c][00:09:28.920][c] price[/c][00:09:29.160][c] rate[/c][00:09:29.600][c] from[/c] if you were to take a a price rate from if you were to take a a price rate from the[00:09:29.839][c] low[/c][00:09:30.200][c] in[/c][00:09:30.360][c] 2018[/c][00:09:30.959][c] till[/c][00:09:31.240][c] that[/c][00:09:31.360][c] 2019[/c][00:09:31.959][c] top[/c][00:09:32.200][c] about[/c] the low in 2018 till that 2019 top about the low in 2018 till that 2019 top about a[00:09:32.480][c] 350%[/c][00:09:33.480][c] rally[/c][00:09:34.320][c] same[/c][00:09:34.560][c] thing[/c][00:09:34.720][c] we[/c][00:09:34.880][c] just[/c][00:09:35.040][c] saw[/c][00:09:36.000][c] uh[/c] a 350% rally same thing we just saw uh a 350% rally same thing we just saw uh you[00:09:36.360][c] know[/c][00:09:36.720][c] in[/c][00:09:37.200][c] for[/c][00:09:37.480][c] from[/c][00:09:37.720][c] from[/c][00:09:37.839][c] the[/c][00:09:38.040][c] rally[/c][00:09:38.399][c] in[/c] you know in for from from the rally in you know in for from from the rally in in[00:09:38.800][c] 2022[/c][00:09:39.519][c] until[/c][00:09:39.800][c] early[/c][00:09:40.120][c] 2024[/c][00:09:40.920][c] so[/c][00:09:41.480][c] it[/c][00:09:41.600][c] still[/c] in 2022 until early 2024 so it still in 2022 until early 2024 so it still gives[00:09:42.160][c] me[/c][00:09:42.959][c] those[/c][00:09:43.440][c] you[/c][00:09:43.519][c] know[/c][00:09:43.760][c] the[/c][00:09:44.000][c] the[/c][00:09:44.079][c] sort[/c][00:09:44.240][c] of[/c] gives me those you know the the sort of gives me those you know the the sort of the[00:09:44.560][c] thoughts[/c][00:09:44.880][c] of[/c][00:09:45.200][c] hey[/c][00:09:45.440][c] what[/c][00:09:45.600][c] if[/c][00:09:45.760][c] this[/c][00:09:45.880][c] is[/c][00:09:46.079][c] just[/c] the thoughts of hey what if this is just the thoughts of hey what if this is just kind[00:09:46.320][c] of[/c][00:09:46.440][c] like[/c][00:09:46.640][c] 2019[/c][00:09:47.360][c] where[/c][00:09:47.680][c] where[/c][00:09:47.880][c] Bitcoin[/c] kind of like 2019 where where Bitcoin kind of like 2019 where where Bitcoin goes[00:09:49.120][c] up[/c][00:09:49.839][c] but[/c][00:09:50.000][c] one[/c][00:09:50.120][c] of[/c][00:09:50.240][c] the[/c][00:09:50.399][c] main[/c][00:09:50.720][c] reasons[/c][00:09:51.120][c] it's[/c] goes up but one of the main reasons it's goes up but one of the main reasons it's going[00:09:51.600][c] up[/c][00:09:52.160][c] is[/c][00:09:52.399][c] because[/c][00:09:52.959][c] I[/c][00:09:53.040][c] mean[/c][00:09:53.120][c] you[/c][00:09:53.240][c] have[/c][00:09:53.399][c] the[/c] going up is because I mean you have the going up is because I mean you have the ETFs[00:09:54.040][c] of[/c][00:09:54.160][c] course[/c][00:09:54.480][c] I'm[/c][00:09:54.560][c] not[/c][00:09:54.680][c] trying[/c][00:09:54.920][c] to[/c][00:09:55.200][c] to[/c][00:09:55.440][c] to[/c] ETFs of course I'm not trying to to to ETFs of course I'm not trying to to to minimize[00:09:56.160][c] that[/c][00:09:56.519][c] but[/c][00:09:56.680][c] one[/c][00:09:56.800][c] of[/c][00:09:56.880][c] the[/c][00:09:57.000][c] main[/c] minimize that but one of the main minimize that but one of the main reasons[00:09:57.480][c] it's[/c][00:09:57.680][c] going[/c][00:09:57.880][c] up[/c][00:09:58.519][c] is[/c][00:09:58.680][c] because[/c][00:09:58.959][c] Bitcoin[/c] reasons it's going up is because Bitcoin reasons it's going up is because Bitcoin dominance[00:10:00.279][c] is[/c][00:10:00.440][c] going[/c][00:10:00.680][c] up[/c][00:10:00.880][c] so[/c][00:10:01.040][c] people[/c][00:10:01.279][c] are[/c] dominance is going up so people are dominance is going up so people are converting[00:10:02.040][c] their[/c][00:10:02.320][c] alts[/c][00:10:02.880][c] into[/c][00:10:03.160][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:10:04.120][c] and[/c] converting their alts into Bitcoin and converting their alts into Bitcoin and that's[00:10:04.640][c] that's[/c][00:10:04.839][c] taking[/c][00:10:05.120][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:10:05.600][c] higher[/c][00:10:05.920][c] and[/c] that's that's taking Bitcoin higher and that's that's taking Bitcoin higher and it's[00:10:06.160][c] one[/c][00:10:06.240][c] of[/c][00:10:06.320][c] the[/c][00:10:06.399][c] reasons[/c][00:10:06.760][c] why[/c][00:10:06.920][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:10:07.360][c] put[/c] it's one of the reasons why Bitcoin put it's one of the reasons why Bitcoin put in[00:10:07.560][c] new[/c][00:10:07.720][c] all-time[/c][00:10:08.120][c] highs[/c][00:10:08.480][c] and[/c][00:10:08.680][c] most[/c][00:10:08.920][c] altcoins[/c] in new all-time highs and most altcoins in new all-time highs and most altcoins have[00:10:09.600][c] not[/c][00:10:10.120][c] yeah[/c][00:10:10.279][c] it's[/c][00:10:10.399][c] a[/c][00:10:10.560][c] good[/c][00:10:10.680][c] you[/c][00:10:10.760][c] brought[/c][00:10:10.920][c] up[/c] have not yeah it's a good you brought up have not yeah it's a good you brought up Bitcoin[00:10:11.360][c] dominance[/c][00:10:11.720][c] so[/c][00:10:11.839][c] it's[/c][00:10:11.959][c] currently[/c] Bitcoin dominance so it's currently Bitcoin dominance so it's currently trading[00:10:13.680][c] around[/c][00:10:14.680][c] the[/c][00:10:14.839][c] 2019[/c][00:10:15.480][c] level[/c][00:10:16.480][c] and[/c][00:10:16.680][c] if[/c][00:10:16.800][c] you[/c] trading around the 2019 level and if you trading around the 2019 level and if you look[00:10:17.040][c] at[/c][00:10:17.160][c] the[/c][00:10:17.279][c] charts[/c][00:10:17.880][c] uh[/c][00:10:18.000][c] the[/c][00:10:18.079][c] Bitcoin[/c] look at the charts uh the Bitcoin look at the charts uh the Bitcoin dominance[00:10:18.880][c] continued[/c][00:10:19.240][c] to[/c][00:10:19.320][c] grind[/c][00:10:19.600][c] up[/c][00:10:19.760][c] into[/c] dominance continued to grind up into dominance continued to grind up into 2020[00:10:21.399][c] um[/c][00:10:21.760][c] it[/c][00:10:22.000][c] it[/c][00:10:22.079][c] was[/c][00:10:22.240][c] interesting[/c][00:10:22.680][c] though[/c] 2020 um it it was interesting though 2020 um it it was interesting though because[00:10:23.360][c] pre[/c][00:10:23.839][c] 2017[/c][00:10:24.640][c] the[/c][00:10:24.760][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:10:25.160][c] dominance[/c] because pre 2017 the Bitcoin dominance because pre 2017 the Bitcoin dominance was[00:10:25.760][c] nearly[/c][00:10:26.240][c] 100%[/c][00:10:27.200][c] And[/c][00:10:27.360][c] I[/c][00:10:27.480][c] guess[/c][00:10:27.640][c] the[/c] was nearly 100% And I guess the was nearly 100% And I guess the introduction[00:10:28.200][c] of[/c][00:10:28.360][c] alss[/c][00:10:29.160][c] um[/c][00:10:29.519][c] around[/c][00:10:29.839][c] 2017[/c] introduction of alss um around 2017 introduction of alss um around 2017 brought[00:10:30.800][c] that[/c][00:10:31.000][c] down[/c][00:10:31.200][c] to[/c][00:10:31.480][c] about[/c][00:10:32.160][c] 30%[/c][00:10:33.160][c] um[/c][00:10:33.600][c] you[/c] brought that down to about 30% um you brought that down to about 30% um you know[00:10:35.120][c] was[/c][00:10:35.240][c] there[/c][00:10:35.399][c] another[/c][00:10:35.680][c] reason[/c] know was there another reason know was there another reason um[00:10:38.120][c] Ben[/c][00:10:38.399][c] I[/c][00:10:38.480][c] mean[/c][00:10:39.240][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:10:39.639][c] used[/c][00:10:39.880][c] to[/c][00:10:40.000][c] be[/c][00:10:40.240][c] the[/c] um Ben I mean Bitcoin used to be the um Ben I mean Bitcoin used to be the entire[00:10:40.839][c] bit[/c][00:10:41.240][c] crypto[/c][00:10:41.600][c] Market[/c][00:10:42.000][c] is[/c][00:10:42.120][c] that[/c][00:10:42.360][c] one[/c][00:10:42.560][c] day[/c] entire bit crypto Market is that one day entire bit crypto Market is that one day G[00:10:42.839][c] to[/c][00:10:43.440][c] happen[/c] G to happen G to happen again[00:10:45.399][c] no[/c][00:10:45.560][c] I[/c][00:10:45.639][c] don't[/c][00:10:45.760][c] think[/c][00:10:45.920][c] so[/c][00:10:46.240][c] I[/c][00:10:46.399][c] I[/c][00:10:46.480][c] think[/c] again no I don't think so I I think again no I don't think so I I think there's[00:10:46.920][c] room[/c][00:10:47.279][c] for[/c][00:10:47.639][c] ethereum[/c][00:10:48.320][c] and[/c][00:10:48.440][c] and[/c][00:10:48.560][c] many[/c] there's room for ethereum and and many there's room for ethereum and and many other[00:10:48.959][c] cryptocurrencies[/c][00:10:49.959][c] I[/c][00:10:50.040][c] just[/c][00:10:50.279][c] think[/c][00:10:50.639][c] that[/c] other cryptocurrencies I just think that other cryptocurrencies I just think that uh[00:10:51.399][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:10:51.880][c] dominance[/c][00:10:52.320][c] has[/c][00:10:52.600][c] potentially[/c][00:10:53.040][c] you[/c] uh Bitcoin dominance has potentially you uh Bitcoin dominance has potentially you know[00:10:53.320][c] like[/c][00:10:53.440][c] an[/c][00:10:53.600][c] oscillator[/c][00:10:54.160][c] to[/c][00:10:54.279][c] some[/c][00:10:54.440][c] degree[/c] know like an oscillator to some degree know like an oscillator to some degree but[00:10:55.120][c] I[/c][00:10:55.240][c] actually[/c][00:10:55.480][c] I[/c][00:10:55.560][c] don't[/c][00:10:55.760][c] really[/c][00:10:55.959][c] think[/c][00:10:56.120][c] it's[/c] but I actually I don't really think it's but I actually I don't really think it's going[00:10:56.519][c] back[/c][00:10:56.680][c] up[/c][00:10:56.839][c] to[/c][00:10:57.040][c] 70%[/c][00:10:58.040][c] my[/c][00:10:58.240][c] my[/c][00:10:58.399][c] target[/c][00:10:58.680][c] on[/c] going back up to 70% my my target on going back up to 70% my my target on bitcoin[00:10:59.360][c] dominance[/c][00:10:59.720][c] has[/c][00:10:59.839][c] just[/c][00:10:59.959][c] been[/c][00:11:00.200][c] 60%[/c][00:11:00.920][c] and[/c] bitcoin dominance has just been 60% and bitcoin dominance has just been 60% and the[00:11:01.160][c] reason[/c][00:11:01.440][c] for[/c][00:11:01.639][c] that[/c][00:11:02.079][c] is[/c][00:11:02.279][c] because[/c][00:11:02.560][c] I[/c] the reason for that is because I the reason for that is because I basically[00:11:03.079][c] think[/c][00:11:03.320][c] that[/c][00:11:03.560][c] when[/c][00:11:03.680][c] when[/c][00:11:03.800][c] you[/c][00:11:03.920][c] get[/c] basically think that when when you get basically think that when when you get these[00:11:04.480][c] major[/c][00:11:04.800][c] alt[/c][00:11:05.120][c] Seasons[/c][00:11:05.519][c] that[/c][00:11:05.720][c] occurred[/c][00:11:06.639][c] in[/c] these major alt Seasons that occurred in these major alt Seasons that occurred in in in in 20121[00:11:08.560][c] um[/c][00:11:08.800][c] a[/c][00:11:08.920][c] lot[/c][00:11:09.040][c] of[/c][00:11:09.200][c] times[/c][00:11:09.600][c] when[/c][00:11:09.720][c] you[/c][00:11:09.800][c] know[/c] 20121 um a lot of times when you know 20121 um a lot of times when you know when[00:11:09.959][c] you[/c][00:11:10.079][c] get[/c][00:11:10.200][c] these[/c][00:11:10.360][c] breakdowns[/c][00:11:10.959][c] the[/c][00:11:11.079][c] metric[/c] when you get these breakdowns the metric when you get these breakdowns the metric will[00:11:11.600][c] then[/c][00:11:11.800][c] slowly[/c][00:11:12.160][c] go[/c][00:11:12.399][c] back[/c][00:11:12.680][c] up[/c][00:11:12.959][c] to[/c][00:11:13.200][c] the[/c][00:11:13.399][c] point[/c] will then slowly go back up to the point will then slowly go back up to the point of[00:11:13.839][c] the[/c][00:11:13.959][c] breakdown[/c][00:11:14.959][c] um[/c][00:11:15.360][c] and[/c][00:11:15.480][c] in[/c][00:11:15.720][c] fact[/c][00:11:16.120][c] you[/c][00:11:16.240][c] know[/c] of the breakdown um and in fact you know of the breakdown um and in fact you know I[00:11:16.880][c] I[/c][00:11:17.040][c] think[/c][00:11:17.360][c] that[/c][00:11:17.959][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:11:18.440][c] dominance[/c][00:11:19.360][c] will[/c] I I think that Bitcoin dominance will I I think that Bitcoin dominance will make[00:11:20.079][c] that[/c][00:11:20.320][c] final[/c][00:11:20.600][c] move[/c][00:11:21.079][c] as[/c][00:11:21.279][c] early[/c][00:11:21.760][c] as[/c] make that final move as early as make that final move as early as September[00:11:22.839][c] or[/c][00:11:23.120][c] as[/c][00:11:23.440][c] late[/c][00:11:23.880][c] as[/c][00:11:24.360][c] December[/c][00:11:25.360][c] um[/c][00:11:25.959][c] I[/c] September or as late as December um I September or as late as December um I think[00:11:26.600][c] that[/c][00:11:26.880][c] one[/c][00:11:27.000][c] of[/c][00:11:27.120][c] the[/c][00:11:27.279][c] things[/c][00:11:27.600][c] that[/c][00:11:27.760][c] makes[/c] think that one of the things that makes think that one of the things that makes Bitcoin[00:11:28.440][c] dominance[/c][00:11:28.839][c] tricky[/c] Bitcoin dominance tricky Bitcoin dominance tricky now[00:11:30.519][c] compared[/c][00:11:30.880][c] to[/c][00:11:31.040][c] back[/c][00:11:31.200][c] over[/c][00:11:31.560][c] here[/c][00:11:31.839][c] in[/c][00:11:32.040][c] 2019[/c] now compared to back over here in 2019 now compared to back over here in 2019 is[00:11:33.160][c] that[/c][00:11:33.320][c] in[/c][00:11:33.600][c] 2019[/c][00:11:34.600][c] the[/c][00:11:34.839][c] the[/c][00:11:34.959][c] stable[/c][00:11:35.360][c] coin[/c] is that in 2019 the the stable coin is that in 2019 the the stable coin market[00:11:36.000][c] cap[/c][00:11:36.360][c] was[/c][00:11:36.519][c] not[/c][00:11:36.800][c] very[/c][00:11:37.079][c] high[/c][00:11:37.920][c] right[/c][00:11:38.120][c] if[/c] market cap was not very high right if market cap was not very high right if you[00:11:38.320][c] were[/c][00:11:38.440][c] to[/c][00:11:38.600][c] look[/c][00:11:38.839][c] at[/c][00:11:39.200][c] at[/c][00:11:39.480][c] at[/c][00:11:39.639][c] at[/c][00:11:39.800][c] usdt[/c] you were to look at at at at usdt you were to look at at at at usdt dominance[00:11:41.600][c] usdt[/c][00:11:42.279][c] dominance[/c][00:11:42.680][c] back[/c][00:11:42.880][c] then[/c][00:11:43.079][c] was[/c] dominance usdt dominance back then was dominance usdt dominance back then was actually[00:11:43.600][c] quite[/c][00:11:43.760][c] low[/c][00:11:43.920][c] and[/c][00:11:44.040][c] this[/c][00:11:44.120][c] is[/c][00:11:44.279][c] actually[/c] actually quite low and this is actually actually quite low and this is actually something[00:11:44.760][c] i'[/c][00:11:44.920][c] I've[/c][00:11:45.040][c] tracked[/c][00:11:45.440][c] for[/c][00:11:45.560][c] a[/c][00:11:45.680][c] while[/c][00:11:45.880][c] as[/c] something i' I've tracked for a while as something i' I've tracked for a while as well[00:11:46.800][c] if[/c][00:11:46.880][c] you[/c][00:11:47.000][c] look[/c][00:11:47.120][c] at[/c][00:11:47.320][c] usdt[/c][00:11:47.839][c] dominance[/c][00:11:48.160][c] you[/c] well if you look at usdt dominance you well if you look at usdt dominance you can[00:11:48.360][c] think[/c][00:11:48.480][c] about[/c][00:11:48.600][c] it[/c][00:11:48.720][c] sort[/c][00:11:48.839][c] of[/c][00:11:48.959][c] like[/c][00:11:49.200][c] a[/c][00:11:49.320][c] flight[/c] can think about it sort of like a flight can think about it sort of like a flight to[00:11:49.720][c] Safety[/c][00:11:50.120][c] in[/c][00:11:50.240][c] the[/c][00:11:50.399][c] same[/c][00:11:50.600][c] way[/c][00:11:50.760][c] you[/c][00:11:50.839][c] might[/c] to Safety in the same way you might to Safety in the same way you might think[00:11:51.160][c] of[/c][00:11:51.279][c] it[/c][00:11:51.440][c] as[/c][00:11:51.639][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:11:52.399][c] every[/c][00:11:52.639][c] time[/c][00:11:52.800][c] usdt[/c] think of it as Bitcoin every time usdt think of it as Bitcoin every time usdt dominance[00:11:53.800][c] has[/c][00:11:54.000][c] tagged[/c][00:11:54.320][c] this[/c][00:11:54.519][c] trend[/c][00:11:54.800][c] line[/c] dominance has tagged this trend line dominance has tagged this trend line there's[00:11:55.160][c] been[/c][00:11:55.279][c] a[/c][00:11:55.399][c] larger[/c][00:11:55.720][c] correct[/c][00:11:56.360][c] a[/c][00:11:56.480][c] larger[/c] there's been a larger correct a larger there's been a larger correct a larger correction[00:11:57.160][c] with[/c][00:11:57.360][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:11:57.720][c] and[/c][00:11:57.839][c] we[/c][00:11:57.959][c] tagged[/c][00:11:58.240][c] it[/c] correction with Bitcoin and we tagged it correction with Bitcoin and we tagged it again[00:11:58.519][c] over[/c][00:11:58.680][c] here[/c][00:11:58.800][c] in[/c][00:11:58.880][c] March[/c][00:11:59.240][c] 2024[/c][00:12:00.240][c] so[/c][00:12:00.800][c] because[/c] again over here in March 2024 so because again over here in March 2024 so because usdt[00:12:02.040][c] dominance[/c][00:12:02.480][c] is[/c][00:12:02.639][c] now[/c][00:12:02.800][c] at[/c][00:12:03.279][c] 6%[/c][00:12:04.279][c] and[/c][00:12:04.480][c] not[/c][00:12:04.839][c] you[/c] usdt dominance is now at 6% and not you usdt dominance is now at 6% and not you know[00:12:05.639][c] 0%[/c][00:12:06.639][c] like[/c][00:12:06.800][c] it[/c][00:12:06.920][c] was[/c][00:12:07.279][c] back[/c][00:12:07.480][c] in[/c][00:12:07.800][c] 2017[/c][00:12:08.600][c] 2018[/c] know 0% like it was back in 2017 2018 know 0% like it was back in 2017 2018 that's[00:12:09.760][c] one[/c][00:12:09.880][c] of[/c][00:12:09.959][c] the[/c][00:12:10.079][c] reasons[/c][00:12:10.399][c] why[/c][00:12:10.560][c] Bitcoin[/c] that's one of the reasons why Bitcoin that's one of the reasons why Bitcoin dominance[00:12:11.399][c] is[/c][00:12:11.639][c] likely[/c][00:12:11.959][c] not[/c][00:12:12.120][c] going[/c][00:12:12.200][c] to[/c][00:12:12.320][c] go[/c][00:12:12.480][c] all[/c] dominance is likely not going to go all dominance is likely not going to go all the[00:12:12.639][c] way[/c][00:12:12.760][c] up[/c][00:12:12.839][c] to[/c][00:12:13.279][c] 73%[/c][00:12:14.279][c] but[/c][00:12:14.680][c] with[/c][00:12:14.839][c] that[/c][00:12:15.199][c] said[/c][00:12:16.199][c] I[/c] the way up to 73% but with that said I the way up to 73% but with that said I think[00:12:16.560][c] the[/c][00:12:16.760][c] appropriate[/c][00:12:17.199][c] thing[/c][00:12:17.360][c] to[/c][00:12:17.519][c] do[/c][00:12:18.399][c] is[/c][00:12:18.560][c] to[/c] think the appropriate thing to do is to think the appropriate thing to do is to just[00:12:19.360][c] add[/c][00:12:19.760][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:12:20.279][c] dominance[/c][00:12:20.880][c] to[/c][00:12:21.160][c] usdt[/c] just add Bitcoin dominance to usdt just add Bitcoin dominance to usdt dominance[00:12:22.519][c] to[/c][00:12:22.639][c] sort[/c][00:12:22.800][c] of[/c][00:12:23.000][c] get[/c][00:12:23.240][c] your[/c][00:12:23.480][c] flight[/c][00:12:23.839][c] to[/c] dominance to sort of get your flight to dominance to sort of get your flight to safety[00:12:24.680][c] dominance[/c][00:12:25.320][c] metric[/c][00:12:26.040][c] and[/c][00:12:26.160][c] one[/c][00:12:26.279][c] of[/c][00:12:26.399][c] the[/c] safety dominance metric and one of the safety dominance metric and one of the crazy[00:12:27.040][c] things[/c][00:12:27.360][c] about[/c][00:12:27.560][c] it[/c][00:12:28.040][c] is[/c][00:12:28.240][c] that[/c][00:12:28.399][c] it's[/c][00:12:28.639][c] it's[/c] crazy things about it is that it's it's crazy things about it is that it's it's at[00:12:28.880][c] the[/c][00:12:29.240][c] exact[/c][00:12:29.519][c] same[/c][00:12:29.720][c] level[/c][00:12:30.000][c] today[/c] at the exact same level today at the exact same level today 63%[00:12:32.199][c] that[/c][00:12:32.360][c] it[/c][00:12:32.519][c] was[/c][00:12:33.160][c] right[/c][00:12:33.440][c] before[/c][00:12:33.680][c] the[/c][00:12:33.800][c] FED[/c][00:12:34.079][c] cut[/c] 63% that it was right before the FED cut 63% that it was right before the FED cut rates[00:12:34.760][c] in[/c][00:12:34.920][c] 2019[/c][00:12:35.720][c] so[/c][00:12:35.880][c] in[/c][00:12:36.040][c] 2019[/c][00:12:36.720][c] June[/c][00:12:37.040][c] 2019[/c] rates in 2019 so in 2019 June 2019 rates in 2019 so in 2019 June 2019 Bitcoin[00:12:38.279][c] plus[/c][00:12:38.519][c] usct[/c][00:12:39.120][c] dominance[/c][00:12:39.480][c] was[/c][00:12:39.639][c] at[/c][00:12:40.079][c] 63%[/c] Bitcoin plus usct dominance was at 63% Bitcoin plus usct dominance was at 63% the[00:12:41.199][c] FED[/c][00:12:41.519][c] cut[/c][00:12:41.720][c] rates[/c][00:12:42.000][c] in[/c][00:12:42.240][c] July[/c][00:12:43.199][c] and[/c][00:12:43.320][c] then[/c][00:12:43.600][c] by[/c] the FED cut rates in July and then by the FED cut rates in July and then by September[00:12:44.959][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:12:45.399][c] dominance[/c][00:12:45.760][c] plus[/c][00:12:46.000][c] usct[/c] September Bitcoin dominance plus usct September Bitcoin dominance plus usct dominance[00:12:46.880][c] was[/c][00:12:47.040][c] about[/c][00:12:47.240][c] 10%[/c][00:12:48.040][c] higher[/c][00:12:48.720][c] uh[/c][00:12:48.839][c] than[/c] dominance was about 10% higher uh than dominance was about 10% higher uh than where[00:12:49.199][c] it[/c][00:12:49.360][c] was[/c][00:12:49.800][c] just[/c][00:12:49.959][c] before[/c][00:12:50.160][c] the[/c][00:12:50.279][c] FED[/c][00:12:50.519][c] card[/c] where it was just before the FED card where it was just before the FED card rate[00:12:50.920][c] so[/c][00:12:51.120][c] I[/c][00:12:51.320][c] I[/c][00:12:51.519][c] kind[/c][00:12:51.639][c] of[/c][00:12:51.880][c] think[/c][00:12:52.160][c] that's[/c][00:12:52.480][c] what's[/c] rate so I I kind of think that's what's rate so I I kind of think that's what's happening[00:12:53.560][c] right[/c][00:12:53.680][c] now[/c][00:12:53.880][c] there's[/c][00:12:54.040][c] just[/c][00:12:54.199][c] been[/c] happening right now there's just been happening right now there's just been you[00:12:54.800][c] know[/c][00:12:54.959][c] some[/c][00:12:55.199][c] consolidation[/c][00:12:56.000][c] the[/c][00:12:56.120][c] market[/c] you know some consolidation the market you know some consolidation the market is[00:12:56.680][c] digesting[/c][00:12:57.199][c] the[/c][00:12:57.320][c] move[/c][00:12:57.639][c] that[/c][00:12:57.760][c] occurred[/c][00:12:58.079][c] in[/c] is digesting the move that occurred in is digesting the move that occurred in 2023[00:12:58.839][c] in[/c][00:12:58.920][c] early[/c][00:12:59.360][c] 2024[/c][00:13:00.360][c] a[/c][00:13:00.480][c] lot[/c][00:13:00.600][c] of[/c][00:13:00.760][c] altcoins[/c][00:13:01.320][c] are[/c] 2023 in early 2024 a lot of altcoins are 2023 in early 2024 a lot of altcoins are are[00:13:01.720][c] still[/c][00:13:01.920][c] struggling[/c][00:13:02.440][c] and[/c][00:13:02.600][c] I[/c][00:13:02.800][c] I[/c][00:13:02.920][c] think[/c] are still struggling and I I think are still struggling and I I think what's[00:13:03.399][c] ultimately[/c][00:13:03.880][c] going[/c][00:13:04.040][c] to[/c][00:13:04.160][c] turn[/c][00:13:04.399][c] this[/c] what's ultimately going to turn this what's ultimately going to turn this thing[00:13:04.760][c] around[/c][00:13:05.760][c] is[/c][00:13:06.360][c] when[/c][00:13:06.519][c] you[/c][00:13:06.720][c] look[/c][00:13:07.160][c] at[/c][00:13:07.480][c] at[/c][00:13:07.639][c] at[/c] thing around is when you look at at at thing around is when you look at at at Bitcoin[00:13:08.199][c] dominance[/c][00:13:08.720][c] just[/c][00:13:09.040][c] by[/c][00:13:09.240][c] itself[/c][00:13:09.920][c] there's[/c] Bitcoin dominance just by itself there's Bitcoin dominance just by itself there's two[00:13:10.440][c] things[/c][00:13:10.680][c] that[/c][00:13:10.880][c] happened[/c][00:13:11.279][c] last[/c][00:13:11.519][c] cycle[/c] two things that happened last cycle two things that happened last cycle before[00:13:12.800][c] it[/c][00:13:13.040][c] finally[/c][00:13:13.399][c] turned[/c][00:13:13.760][c] around[/c][00:13:14.639][c] okay[/c][00:13:15.160][c] one[/c] before it finally turned around okay one before it finally turned around okay one of[00:13:15.519][c] them[/c][00:13:16.000][c] is[/c][00:13:16.399][c] the[/c][00:13:16.560][c] Fed[/c][00:13:16.880][c] started[/c][00:13:17.199][c] to[/c][00:13:17.320][c] cut[/c][00:13:17.560][c] rates[/c] of them is the Fed started to cut rates of them is the Fed started to cut rates right[00:13:18.440][c] so[/c][00:13:18.600][c] if[/c][00:13:18.720][c] you[/c][00:13:18.800][c] were[/c][00:13:18.959][c] to[/c][00:13:19.399][c] Overlay[/c][00:13:20.399][c] interest[/c] right so if you were to Overlay interest right so if you were to Overlay interest rates[00:13:21.120][c] onto[/c][00:13:21.399][c] the[/c][00:13:21.480][c] chart[/c][00:13:21.760][c] you'll[/c][00:13:21.959][c] see[/c][00:13:22.199][c] that[/c] rates onto the chart you'll see that rates onto the chart you'll see that look[00:13:22.680][c] the[/c][00:13:22.760][c] FED[/c][00:13:23.000][c] started[/c][00:13:23.240][c] to[/c][00:13:23.360][c] cut[/c][00:13:23.600][c] rates[/c][00:13:23.880][c] and[/c] look the FED started to cut rates and look the FED started to cut rates and then[00:13:24.079][c] shortly[/c][00:13:24.399][c] after[/c][00:13:24.639][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:13:24.959][c] dominance[/c] then shortly after Bitcoin dominance then shortly after Bitcoin dominance topped[00:13:26.160][c] but[/c][00:13:26.480][c] the[/c][00:13:26.639][c] thing[/c][00:13:26.880][c] that[/c][00:13:27.079][c] might[/c][00:13:27.240][c] be[/c][00:13:27.600][c] even[/c] topped but the thing that might be even topped but the thing that might be even more[00:13:28.240][c] compelling[/c][00:13:29.199][c] is[/c][00:13:29.360][c] if[/c][00:13:29.480][c] you[/c][00:13:29.800][c] overlay[/c][00:13:30.800][c] the[/c] more compelling is if you overlay the more compelling is if you overlay the balance[00:13:31.560][c] sheet[/c][00:13:31.880][c] of[/c][00:13:32.079][c] the[/c][00:13:32.199][c] FED[/c][00:13:33.040][c] when[/c][00:13:33.360][c] they[/c][00:13:33.519][c] went[/c] balance sheet of the FED when they went balance sheet of the FED when they went from[00:13:34.120][c] QT[/c][00:13:34.959][c] they[/c][00:13:35.079][c] were[/c][00:13:35.320][c] they[/c][00:13:35.399][c] were[/c][00:13:35.639][c] reducing[/c][00:13:36.040][c] the[/c] from QT they were they were reducing the from QT they were they were reducing the size[00:13:36.360][c] of[/c][00:13:36.480][c] their[/c][00:13:36.600][c] balance[/c][00:13:36.839][c] sheet[/c][00:13:37.079][c] here[/c][00:13:37.199][c] in[/c] size of their balance sheet here in size of their balance sheet here in 2019[00:13:38.920][c] but[/c][00:13:39.040][c] you[/c][00:13:39.120][c] can[/c][00:13:39.279][c] see[/c][00:13:39.480][c] the[/c][00:13:39.600][c] minute[/c][00:13:39.880][c] they[/c] 2019 but you can see the minute they 2019 but you can see the minute they started[00:13:40.279][c] to[/c][00:13:40.440][c] expand[/c][00:13:40.800][c] their[/c][00:13:40.959][c] balance[/c][00:13:41.240][c] sheet[/c] started to expand their balance sheet started to expand their balance sheet that's[00:13:42.120][c] when[/c][00:13:42.320][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:13:42.680][c] dominance[/c][00:13:43.079][c] topped[/c][00:13:43.839][c] in[/c] that's when Bitcoin dominance topped in that's when Bitcoin dominance topped in in[00:13:44.639][c] 2019[/c][00:13:45.600][c] and[/c][00:13:45.680][c] so[/c][00:13:45.880][c] that's[/c][00:13:46.040][c] what[/c][00:13:46.160][c] I[/c][00:13:46.240][c] think[/c][00:13:46.360][c] we[/c] in 2019 and so that's what I think we in 2019 and so that's what I think we need[00:13:46.600][c] to[/c][00:13:46.720][c] see[/c][00:13:47.000][c] I[/c][00:13:47.079][c] think[/c][00:13:47.519][c] I[/c][00:13:47.600][c] think[/c][00:13:47.839][c] after[/c][00:13:48.040][c] the[/c] need to see I think I think after the need to see I think I think after the FED[00:13:48.399][c] Cuts[/c][00:13:48.720][c] rates[/c][00:13:49.560][c] and[/c][00:13:49.880][c] after[/c][00:13:50.240][c] they[/c][00:13:50.480][c] pivot[/c][00:13:50.920][c] from[/c] FED Cuts rates and after they pivot from FED Cuts rates and after they pivot from quantitative[00:13:51.680][c] tightening[/c][00:13:52.040][c] to[/c][00:13:52.199][c] quantitative[/c] quantitative tightening to quantitative quantitative tightening to quantitative easing[00:13:53.440][c] you[/c][00:13:53.600][c] will[/c][00:13:53.920][c] likely[/c][00:13:54.320][c] see[/c][00:13:54.600][c] Bitcoin[/c] easing you will likely see Bitcoin easing you will likely see Bitcoin dominance[00:13:55.480][c] top[/c][00:13:55.800][c] and[/c][00:13:55.920][c] I[/c][00:13:56.079][c] I[/c][00:13:56.160][c] think[/c][00:13:56.279][c] it's[/c] dominance top and I I think it's dominance top and I I think it's probably[00:13:56.639][c] going[/c][00:13:56.720][c] to[/c][00:13:56.880][c] happen[/c][00:13:57.199][c] before[/c][00:13:57.519][c] the[/c][00:13:57.600][c] end[/c] probably going to happen before the end probably going to happen before the end of[00:13:57.839][c] the[/c][00:13:57.920][c] year[/c][00:13:58.600][c] you[/c][00:13:58.720][c] know[/c][00:13:58.839][c] another[/c][00:13:59.160][c] narrative[/c] of the year you know another narrative of the year you know another narrative that[00:14:00.279][c] may[/c][00:14:00.480][c] or[/c][00:14:00.639][c] may[/c][00:14:00.800][c] not[/c][00:14:00.959][c] make[/c][00:14:01.120][c] sense[/c][00:14:01.279][c] and[/c][00:14:01.399][c] I'll[/c] that may or may not make sense and I'll that may or may not make sense and I'll let[00:14:01.680][c] you[/c][00:14:01.839][c] address[/c][00:14:02.120][c] that[/c][00:14:02.240][c] is[/c][00:14:02.399][c] that[/c][00:14:02.920][c] this[/c][00:14:03.120][c] time[/c] let you address that is that this time let you address that is that this time it's[00:14:03.440][c] not[/c][00:14:03.600][c] the[/c][00:14:03.720][c] retailers[/c][00:14:04.399][c] getting[/c][00:14:04.639][c] in[/c][00:14:04.920][c] it's[/c] it's not the retailers getting in it's it's not the retailers getting in it's it's[00:14:05.440][c] the[/c][00:14:05.600][c] large[/c][00:14:05.959][c] institutional[/c][00:14:06.519][c] investors[/c] it's the large institutional investors it's the large institutional investors uh[00:14:07.600][c] more[/c][00:14:07.800][c] so[/c][00:14:08.120][c] than[/c][00:14:08.560][c] actually[/c][00:14:08.920][c] in[/c][00:14:09.360][c] 2021[/c][00:14:10.320][c] here's[/c] uh more so than actually in 2021 here's uh more so than actually in 2021 here's an[00:14:10.639][c] article[/c][00:14:10.920][c] from[/c][00:14:11.279][c] CNBC[/c][00:14:12.279][c] this[/c][00:14:12.399][c] is[/c][00:14:12.600][c] uh[/c][00:14:12.759][c] Goldman[/c] an article from CNBC this is uh Goldman an article from CNBC this is uh Goldman Sachs[00:14:13.360][c] jumps[/c][00:14:13.600][c] into[/c][00:14:13.800][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:14:14.120][c] ETFs[/c][00:14:14.480][c] and[/c][00:14:14.600][c] one[/c] Sachs jumps into Bitcoin ETFs and one Sachs jumps into Bitcoin ETFs and one hedge[00:14:14.959][c] fund[/c][00:14:15.199][c] gets[/c][00:14:15.720][c] bullish[/c][00:14:16.720][c] uh[/c][00:14:16.959][c] so[/c][00:14:17.880][c] this[/c][00:14:18.000][c] is[/c] hedge fund gets bullish uh so this is hedge fund gets bullish uh so this is what[00:14:18.279][c] they[/c][00:14:18.399][c] wrote[/c][00:14:18.720][c] I'll[/c][00:14:18.880][c] just[/c][00:14:18.959][c] share[/c][00:14:19.240][c] my[/c] what they wrote I'll just share my what they wrote I'll just share my screen[00:14:19.720][c] here[/c][00:14:20.639][c] for[/c][00:14:20.880][c] most[/c][00:14:21.079][c] of[/c][00:14:21.199][c] the[/c][00:14:21.279][c] banks[/c][00:14:21.519][c] the[/c] screen here for most of the banks the screen here for most of the banks the vast[00:14:21.920][c] majority[/c][00:14:22.240][c] of[/c][00:14:22.360][c] not[/c][00:14:22.560][c] all[/c][00:14:22.759][c] of[/c][00:14:22.839][c] the[/c][00:14:22.959][c] ETF[/c] vast majority of not all of the ETF vast majority of not all of the ETF flows[00:14:23.600][c] can[/c][00:14:23.720][c] be[/c][00:14:23.800][c] attributed[/c][00:14:24.160][c] to[/c][00:14:24.279][c] wealth[/c] flows can be attributed to wealth flows can be attributed to wealth management[00:14:25.040][c] clients[/c][00:14:25.480][c] asking[/c][00:14:25.759][c] for[/c][00:14:26.000][c] exposure[/c] management clients asking for exposure management clients asking for exposure rather[00:14:27.160][c] than[/c][00:14:27.279][c] a[/c][00:14:27.440][c] decision[/c][00:14:27.800][c] by[/c][00:14:27.920][c] The[/c][00:14:28.040][c] Firm[/c][00:14:28.279][c] to[/c] rather than a decision by The Firm to rather than a decision by The Firm to hold[00:14:28.639][c] the[/c][00:14:28.759][c] asset[/c][00:14:29.279][c] on[/c][00:14:29.399][c] its[/c][00:14:29.560][c] balance[/c][00:14:29.880][c] sheet[/c][00:14:30.480][c] in[/c] hold the asset on its balance sheet in hold the asset on its balance sheet in particular[00:14:31.480][c] W[/c][00:14:31.680][c] Wall[/c][00:14:31.959][c] Street[/c][00:14:32.360][c] investment[/c] particular W Wall Street investment particular W Wall Street investment banks[00:14:33.079][c] are[/c][00:14:33.880][c] are[/c][00:14:34.279][c] coming[/c][00:14:34.519][c] in[/c][00:14:34.680][c] slowly[/c][00:14:35.160][c] hedge[/c] banks are are coming in slowly hedge banks are are coming in slowly hedge funds[00:14:35.759][c] are[/c][00:14:35.920][c] taking[/c][00:14:36.160][c] a[/c][00:14:36.279][c] more[/c][00:14:36.480][c] aggressive[/c] funds are taking a more aggressive funds are taking a more aggressive approach[00:14:37.399][c] Millennial[/c][00:14:38.399][c] Millennium[/c] approach Millennial Millennium approach Millennial Millennium management[00:14:39.519][c] which[/c][00:14:39.680][c] overseas[/c][00:14:40.079][c] $62[/c][00:14:40.519][c] billion[/c] management which overseas $62 billion management which overseas $62 billion now[00:14:41.199][c] holds[/c][00:14:41.440][c] over[/c][00:14:41.560][c] $1.1[/c][00:14:42.160][c] billion[/c][00:14:42.680][c] worth[/c][00:14:42.880][c] of[/c] now holds over $1.1 billion worth of now holds over $1.1 billion worth of shares[00:14:43.639][c] and[/c][00:14:43.839][c] at[/c][00:14:44.000][c] least[/c][00:14:44.399][c] five[/c][00:14:45.120][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:14:45.560][c] ETFs[/c][00:14:46.480][c] so[/c] shares and at least five Bitcoin ETFs so shares and at least five Bitcoin ETFs so large[00:14:47.199][c] family[/c][00:14:47.600][c] offices[/c][00:14:48.079][c] wealth[/c][00:14:48.320][c] management[/c] large family offices wealth management large family offices wealth management firms[00:14:49.079][c] they're[/c][00:14:49.399][c] actually[/c][00:14:49.800][c] requesting[/c][00:14:50.800][c] BTF[/c][00:14:51.480][c] uh[/c] firms they're actually requesting BTF uh firms they're actually requesting BTF uh BTC[00:14:52.360][c] ETFs[/c][00:14:53.360][c] to[/c][00:14:53.560][c] be[/c][00:14:53.800][c] held[/c][00:14:54.120][c] and[/c][00:14:54.240][c] so[/c][00:14:54.519][c] that's[/c] BTC ETFs to be held and so that's BTC ETFs to be held and so that's driving[00:14:55.240][c] a[/c][00:14:55.360][c] lot[/c][00:14:55.480][c] of[/c][00:14:55.600][c] the[/c][00:14:55.880][c] flows[/c][00:14:56.880][c] um[/c][00:14:57.800][c] is[/c][00:14:57.959][c] that[/c] driving a lot of the flows um is that driving a lot of the flows um is that something[00:14:58.440][c] we've[/c][00:14:58.600][c] seen[/c][00:14:58.800][c] before[/c][00:14:59.040][c] for[/c][00:14:59.519][c] Ben[/c][00:15:00.040][c] I[/c] something we've seen before for Ben I something we've seen before for Ben I mean[00:15:00.279][c] I[/c][00:15:00.399][c] think[/c][00:15:00.519][c] it's[/c][00:15:00.639][c] the[/c][00:15:00.880][c] same[/c][00:15:01.600][c] same[/c][00:15:01.880][c] thing[/c] mean I think it's the same same thing mean I think it's the same same thing slightly[00:15:02.560][c] different[/c][00:15:02.800][c] narrative[/c][00:15:03.480][c] basically[/c] slightly different narrative basically slightly different narrative basically when[00:15:04.880][c] you're[/c][00:15:05.880][c] I[/c][00:15:05.959][c] think[/c][00:15:06.120][c] what[/c][00:15:06.240][c] you[/c][00:15:06.360][c] said[/c][00:15:06.560][c] makes[/c] when you're I think what you said makes when you're I think what you said makes a[00:15:06.839][c] ton[/c][00:15:07.040][c] of[/c][00:15:07.160][c] sense[/c][00:15:07.360][c] and[/c][00:15:07.720][c] I[/c][00:15:07.839][c] think[/c][00:15:08.040][c] that[/c][00:15:08.199][c] that[/c][00:15:08.320][c] is[/c] a ton of sense and I think that that is a ton of sense and I think that that is actually[00:15:08.800][c] what's[/c][00:15:09.000][c] happening[/c][00:15:09.560][c] right[/c][00:15:10.079][c] but[/c][00:15:10.320][c] I[/c] actually what's happening right but I actually what's happening right but I would[00:15:10.560][c] also[/c][00:15:10.839][c] argue[/c][00:15:11.399][c] that[/c][00:15:11.600][c] happened[/c][00:15:12.279][c] four[/c] would also argue that happened four would also argue that happened four years[00:15:12.759][c] ago[/c][00:15:13.120][c] too[/c][00:15:13.959][c] it[/c][00:15:14.079][c] was[/c][00:15:14.360][c] just[/c][00:15:14.560][c] that[/c][00:15:14.720][c] instead[/c] years ago too it was just that instead years ago too it was just that instead of[00:15:15.120][c] ETF[/c][00:15:15.519][c] flows[/c][00:15:15.839][c] it[/c][00:15:15.920][c] was[/c][00:15:16.040][c] just[/c][00:15:16.160][c] people[/c][00:15:16.320][c] were[/c] of ETF flows it was just people were of ETF flows it was just people were focused[00:15:16.880][c] more[/c][00:15:17.000][c] on[/c][00:15:17.120][c] bitcoin[/c][00:15:17.480][c] and[/c][00:15:17.560][c] we[/c][00:15:17.639][c] have[/c][00:15:17.720][c] to[/c] focused more on bitcoin and we have to focused more on bitcoin and we have to think[00:15:17.959][c] about[/c][00:15:18.240][c] why[/c][00:15:18.880][c] when[/c][00:15:19.000][c] the[/c][00:15:19.120][c] FED[/c][00:15:19.320][c] raises[/c] think about why when the FED raises think about why when the FED raises rates[00:15:20.720][c] and[/c][00:15:21.120][c] they're[/c][00:15:21.440][c] going[/c][00:15:21.680][c] through[/c] rates and they're going through rates and they're going through quantitative[00:15:22.360][c] tightening[/c][00:15:22.759][c] people[/c][00:15:23.000][c] are[/c][00:15:23.120][c] going[/c] quantitative tightening people are going quantitative tightening people are going to[00:15:23.399][c] flee[/c][00:15:23.759][c] to[/c][00:15:23.959][c] the[/c][00:15:24.040][c] lower[/c][00:15:24.360][c] risk[/c][00:15:24.680][c] assets[/c][00:15:25.079][c] within[/c] to flee to the lower risk assets within to flee to the lower risk assets within each[00:15:25.480][c] asset[/c][00:15:25.839][c] class[/c][00:15:26.120][c] it's[/c][00:15:26.240][c] the[/c][00:15:26.399][c] same[/c][00:15:26.600][c] reason[/c] each asset class it's the same reason each asset class it's the same reason why[00:15:27.160][c] you[/c][00:15:27.320][c] had[/c][00:15:27.440][c] the[/c][00:15:27.560][c] Magnificent[/c][00:15:28.079][c] Seven[/c][00:15:28.800][c] right[/c] why you had the Magnificent Seven right why you had the Magnificent Seven right it's[00:15:29.120][c] the[/c][00:15:29.199][c] same[/c][00:15:29.360][c] reason[/c][00:15:29.600][c] why[/c][00:15:29.720][c] money[/c][00:15:29.959][c] poured[/c] it's the same reason why money poured it's the same reason why money poured into[00:15:30.480][c] those[/c][00:15:30.959][c] is[/c][00:15:31.160][c] because[/c][00:15:31.519][c] as[/c][00:15:31.639][c] you[/c][00:15:31.759][c] get[/c][00:15:31.880][c] into[/c] into those is because as you get into into those is because as you get into tighter[00:15:32.440][c] monetary[/c][00:15:32.959][c] policy[/c][00:15:33.759][c] you[/c][00:15:33.880][c] want[/c][00:15:34.000][c] to[/c][00:15:34.160][c] go[/c] tighter monetary policy you want to go tighter monetary policy you want to go into[00:15:34.519][c] the[/c][00:15:34.680][c] safer[/c][00:15:35.279][c] assets[/c][00:15:35.720][c] that[/c][00:15:35.839][c] you[/c][00:15:36.079][c] actually[/c] into the safer assets that you actually into the safer assets that you actually think[00:15:36.560][c] have[/c][00:15:36.680][c] a[/c][00:15:36.839][c] good[/c][00:15:37.079][c] chance[/c][00:15:37.480][c] of[/c][00:15:37.839][c] surviving[/c] think have a good chance of surviving think have a good chance of surviving that[00:15:39.040][c] tighter[/c][00:15:39.399][c] monetary[/c][00:15:39.880][c] policy[/c][00:15:40.560][c] and[/c][00:15:40.639][c] so[/c][00:15:40.800][c] I[/c] that tighter monetary policy and so I that tighter monetary policy and so I think[00:15:41.079][c] that's[/c][00:15:41.240][c] what[/c][00:15:41.440][c] drives[/c][00:15:41.839][c] it[/c][00:15:42.079][c] right[/c][00:15:42.199][c] I[/c] think that's what drives it right I think that's what drives it right I think[00:15:42.399][c] that's[/c][00:15:42.519][c] what[/c][00:15:42.639][c] drives[/c][00:15:42.880][c] it[/c][00:15:43.000][c] and[/c] think that's what drives it and think that's what drives it and essentially[00:15:44.040][c] you[/c][00:15:44.160][c] know[/c][00:15:44.720][c] you[/c][00:15:44.959][c] basically[/c][00:15:45.399][c] have[/c] essentially you know you basically have essentially you know you basically have three[00:15:46.079][c] years[/c][00:15:46.600][c] of[/c][00:15:46.800][c] the[/c][00:15:47.000][c] cycle[/c][00:15:47.759][c] where[/c][00:15:48.240][c] Bitcoin[/c] three years of the cycle where Bitcoin three years of the cycle where Bitcoin takes[00:15:49.560][c] more[/c][00:15:49.800][c] market[/c][00:15:50.120][c] share[/c][00:15:50.959][c] and[/c][00:15:51.160][c] and[/c][00:15:51.279][c] we've[/c] takes more market share and and we've takes more market share and and we've seen[00:15:51.600][c] that[/c][00:15:51.720][c] we[/c][00:15:51.839][c] saw[/c][00:15:52.160][c] in[/c][00:15:52.279][c] 2022[/c][00:15:53.120][c] 2023[/c][00:15:53.800][c] and[/c][00:15:53.920][c] now[/c] seen that we saw in 2022 2023 and now seen that we saw in 2022 2023 and now 2024[00:15:55.440][c] it[/c][00:15:55.560][c] is[/c][00:15:55.680][c] a[/c][00:15:55.839][c] good[/c][00:15:56.040][c] narrative[/c][00:15:56.720][c] but[/c][00:15:56.920][c] I[/c][00:15:57.079][c] do[/c] 2024 it is a good narrative but I do 2024 it is a good narrative but I do think[00:15:57.600][c] like[/c][00:15:57.800][c] anything[/c][00:15:58.120][c] all[/c][00:15:58.360][c] those[/c][00:15:58.480][c] narratives[/c] think like anything all those narratives think like anything all those narratives will[00:15:59.079][c] eventually[/c][00:15:59.399][c] come[/c][00:15:59.519][c] to[/c][00:15:59.639][c] an[/c][00:15:59.720][c] end[/c][00:15:59.839][c] and[/c][00:15:59.920][c] this[/c] will eventually come to an end and this will eventually come to an end and this is[00:16:00.120][c] someone[/c][00:16:00.319][c] who's[/c][00:16:00.480][c] been[/c][00:16:00.600][c] preaching[/c][00:16:00.880][c] the[/c] is someone who's been preaching the is someone who's been preaching the Bitcoin[00:16:01.319][c] dominance[/c][00:16:01.720][c] thing[/c][00:16:01.839][c] for[/c][00:16:02.000][c] three[/c][00:16:02.199][c] years[/c] Bitcoin dominance thing for three years Bitcoin dominance thing for three years I[00:16:03.040][c] do[/c][00:16:03.319][c] think[/c][00:16:03.920][c] dominance[/c][00:16:04.440][c] will[/c][00:16:04.759][c] go[/c][00:16:05.000][c] down[/c][00:16:06.000][c] in[/c] I do think dominance will go down in I do think dominance will go down in 2025[00:16:07.839][c] it's[/c][00:16:08.040][c] the[/c][00:16:08.160][c] same[/c][00:16:08.319][c] time[/c][00:16:08.480][c] it[/c][00:16:08.639][c] always[/c][00:16:08.880][c] goes[/c] 2025 it's the same time it always goes 2025 it's the same time it always goes down[00:16:09.279][c] it[/c][00:16:09.360][c] went[/c][00:16:09.560][c] down[/c][00:16:09.680][c] in[/c][00:16:09.839][c] 2021[/c][00:16:10.519][c] and[/c][00:16:10.639][c] it[/c][00:16:10.759][c] went[/c] down it went down in 2021 and it went down it went down in 2021 and it went down[00:16:11.120][c] in[/c][00:16:11.279][c] 2017[/c][00:16:11.959][c] and[/c][00:16:12.040][c] I[/c][00:16:12.120][c] think[/c][00:16:12.240][c] it's[/c][00:16:12.360][c] going[/c][00:16:12.440][c] to[/c] down in 2017 and I think it's going to down in 2017 and I think it's going to be[00:16:12.600][c] on[/c][00:16:12.720][c] the[/c][00:16:12.839][c] back[/c][00:16:13.040][c] of[/c][00:16:13.160][c] loose[/c][00:16:13.480][c] monetary[/c][00:16:13.880][c] policy[/c] be on the back of loose monetary policy be on the back of loose monetary policy I[00:16:14.720][c] think[/c][00:16:15.079][c] that[/c][00:16:15.399][c] um[/c][00:16:16.240][c] the[/c][00:16:16.399][c] ETF[/c][00:16:16.880][c] flows[/c][00:16:17.680][c] and[/c] I think that um the ETF flows and I think that um the ETF flows and whatnot[00:16:18.440][c] are[/c][00:16:18.560][c] going[/c][00:16:18.639][c] to[/c][00:16:18.720][c] be[/c][00:16:18.839][c] used[/c][00:16:19.079][c] as[/c] whatnot are going to be used as whatnot are going to be used as justification[00:16:20.160][c] as[/c][00:16:20.279][c] to[/c][00:16:20.519][c] why[/c][00:16:20.720][c] dominance[/c][00:16:21.160][c] won't[/c] justification as to why dominance won't justification as to why dominance won't go[00:16:21.680][c] down[/c][00:16:22.440][c] but[/c][00:16:22.680][c] I[/c][00:16:22.800][c] I[/c][00:16:22.959][c] do[/c][00:16:23.160][c] think[/c][00:16:23.279][c] that[/c][00:16:23.440][c] asol[/c] go down but I I do think that asol go down but I I do think that asol monetary[00:16:24.199][c] policy[/c][00:16:24.480][c] arrives[/c][00:16:24.920][c] people[/c][00:16:25.120][c] will[/c] monetary policy arrives people will monetary policy arrives people will start[00:16:25.440][c] to[/c][00:16:25.680][c] feel[/c][00:16:26.680][c] that[/c][00:16:26.920][c] that[/c][00:16:27.079][c] risk[/c][00:16:27.440][c] appetite[/c][00:16:28.000][c] go[/c] start to feel that that risk appetite go start to feel that that risk appetite go up[00:16:28.680][c] I[/c][00:16:28.959][c] still[/c][00:16:29.079][c] think[/c][00:16:29.199][c] we're[/c][00:16:29.360][c] a[/c][00:16:29.440][c] few[/c][00:16:29.600][c] months[/c][00:16:29.880][c] away[/c] up I still think we're a few months away up I still think we're a few months away from[00:16:30.279][c] that[/c][00:16:30.480][c] right[/c][00:16:30.600][c] we[/c][00:16:30.720][c] still[/c][00:16:30.880][c] haven't[/c][00:16:31.120][c] even[/c] from that right we still haven't even from that right we still haven't even had[00:16:31.440][c] our[/c][00:16:31.560][c] first[/c][00:16:31.800][c] rate[/c][00:16:32.079][c] cut[/c][00:16:32.399][c] yet[/c][00:16:33.000][c] but[/c][00:16:33.199][c] if[/c][00:16:33.319][c] we[/c] had our first rate cut yet but if we had our first rate cut yet but if we fast[00:16:33.759][c] forward[/c][00:16:34.279][c] you[/c][00:16:34.399][c] know[/c][00:16:34.600][c] out[/c][00:16:34.759][c] to[/c][00:16:35.199][c] January[/c] fast forward you know out to January fast forward you know out to January 2025[00:16:36.560][c] we[/c][00:16:36.720][c] probably[/c][00:16:37.000][c] had[/c][00:16:37.160][c] a[/c][00:16:37.240][c] few[/c][00:16:37.399][c] rate[/c][00:16:37.680][c] Cuts[/c] 2025 we probably had a few rate Cuts 2025 we probably had a few rate Cuts maybe[00:16:38.720][c] the[/c][00:16:38.839][c] FED[/c][00:16:39.160][c] stopped[/c][00:16:39.600][c] QT[/c][00:16:40.600][c] and[/c][00:16:40.920][c] and[/c][00:16:41.079][c] and[/c] maybe the FED stopped QT and and and maybe the FED stopped QT and and and perhaps[00:16:41.639][c] people[/c][00:16:41.959][c] feel[/c][00:16:42.480][c] more[/c][00:16:42.759][c] risky[/c][00:16:43.079][c] in[/c][00:16:43.240][c] the[/c] perhaps people feel more risky in the perhaps people feel more risky in the altcoin[00:16:43.720][c] market[/c][00:16:44.000][c] once[/c][00:16:44.199][c] again[/c][00:16:44.880][c] so[/c][00:16:45.040][c] if[/c][00:16:45.120][c] you're[/c] altcoin market once again so if you're altcoin market once again so if you're assuming[00:16:45.639][c] that[/c][00:16:45.800][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:16:46.560][c] dominance[/c][00:16:47.040][c] will[/c] assuming that Bitcoin dominance will assuming that Bitcoin dominance will fall[00:16:47.720][c] later[/c][00:16:48.480][c] next[/c][00:16:48.800][c] year[/c][00:16:49.600][c] uh[/c][00:16:49.720][c] one[/c][00:16:49.839][c] of[/c][00:16:50.000][c] two[/c] fall later next year uh one of two fall later next year uh one of two things[00:16:50.560][c] could[/c][00:16:50.800][c] happen[/c][00:16:51.360][c] uh[/c][00:16:51.519][c] either[/c][00:16:51.759][c] the[/c][00:16:51.920][c] SS[/c] things could happen uh either the SS things could happen uh either the SS will[00:16:52.880][c] catch[/c][00:16:53.199][c] up[/c][00:16:53.519][c] or[/c][00:16:53.759][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:16:54.120][c] will[/c][00:16:54.399][c] fall[/c][00:16:55.399][c] uh[/c] will catch up or Bitcoin will fall uh will catch up or Bitcoin will fall uh what's[00:16:55.680][c] more[/c][00:16:55.920][c] likely[/c][00:16:56.480][c] I[/c][00:16:56.600][c] think[/c][00:16:56.800][c] honestly[/c][00:16:57.120][c] I[/c] what's more likely I think honestly I what's more likely I think honestly I think[00:16:57.360][c] combinations[/c][00:16:57.839][c] of[/c][00:16:58.040][c] both[/c][00:16:58.240][c] so[/c][00:16:58.920][c] sort[/c][00:16:59.040][c] of[/c][00:16:59.120][c] my[/c] think combinations of both so sort of my think combinations of both so sort of my view[00:16:59.440][c] has[/c][00:16:59.600][c] been[/c][00:16:59.800][c] that[/c][00:17:00.079][c] um[/c][00:17:00.920][c] so[/c][00:17:01.120][c] so[/c][00:17:01.560][c] let[/c][00:17:01.639][c] me[/c][00:17:01.720][c] share[/c] view has been that um so so let me share view has been that um so so let me share my[00:17:02.199][c] screen[/c][00:17:02.480][c] again[/c][00:17:02.680][c] so[/c][00:17:02.800][c] you[/c][00:17:02.880][c] can[/c][00:17:03.079][c] kind[/c][00:17:03.199][c] of[/c][00:17:03.600][c] uh[/c] my screen again so you can kind of uh my screen again so you can kind of uh talking[00:17:04.319][c] about[/c][00:17:04.520][c] it'll[/c][00:17:04.760][c] be[/c][00:17:04.880][c] make[/c][00:17:05.000][c] it[/c][00:17:05.120][c] a[/c][00:17:05.199][c] little[/c] talking about it'll be make it a little talking about it'll be make it a little bit[00:17:05.480][c] easier[/c][00:17:06.240][c] yeah[/c][00:17:06.559][c] so[/c][00:17:06.919][c] essentially[/c][00:17:07.319][c] what[/c] bit easier yeah so essentially what bit easier yeah so essentially what happened[00:17:07.720][c] at[/c][00:17:07.839][c] least[/c][00:17:08.079][c] last[/c][00:17:08.319][c] cycle[/c][00:17:08.600][c] and[/c][00:17:08.720][c] again[/c][00:17:08.880][c] I[/c] happened at least last cycle and again I happened at least last cycle and again I mean[00:17:09.079][c] look[/c][00:17:09.280][c] this[/c][00:17:09.400][c] time[/c][00:17:09.600][c] could[/c][00:17:09.720][c] be[/c][00:17:09.839][c] different[/c] mean look this time could be different mean look this time could be different I'm[00:17:10.199][c] not[/c][00:17:10.319][c] going[/c][00:17:10.439][c] to[/c][00:17:10.520][c] say[/c][00:17:10.679][c] that[/c][00:17:10.799][c] it[/c][00:17:10.919][c] can't[/c][00:17:11.160][c] be[/c] I'm not going to say that it can't be I'm not going to say that it can't be but[00:17:12.280][c] last[/c][00:17:12.640][c] cycle[/c][00:17:13.199][c] what[/c][00:17:13.400][c] essentially[/c][00:17:14.000][c] happened[/c] but last cycle what essentially happened but last cycle what essentially happened is[00:17:15.120][c] if[/c][00:17:15.240][c] you[/c][00:17:15.319][c] look[/c][00:17:15.480][c] at[/c][00:17:15.600][c] say[/c][00:17:15.799][c] like[/c][00:17:16.199][c] a[/c][00:17:16.280][c] fib[/c] is if you look at say like a fib is if you look at say like a fib retracement[00:17:17.319][c] from[/c][00:17:17.679][c] from[/c][00:17:17.839][c] when[/c][00:17:18.120][c] Bitcoin[/c] retracement from from when Bitcoin retracement from from when Bitcoin dominance[00:17:19.039][c] fell[/c][00:17:19.839][c] what[/c][00:17:19.959][c] you'll[/c][00:17:20.199][c] notice[/c][00:17:20.640][c] is[/c] dominance fell what you'll notice is dominance fell what you'll notice is that[00:17:20.880][c] it[/c][00:17:21.000][c] topped[/c][00:17:21.319][c] out[/c][00:17:21.480][c] at[/c][00:17:21.600][c] the[/c][00:17:21.720][c] 618[/c][00:17:22.400][c] FIB[/c][00:17:23.120][c] but[/c] that it topped out at the 618 FIB but that it topped out at the 618 FIB but what's[00:17:23.439][c] more[/c][00:17:23.600][c] important[/c][00:17:24.120][c] is[/c][00:17:24.319][c] once[/c][00:17:24.480][c] it[/c][00:17:24.679][c] crossed[/c] what's more important is once it crossed what's more important is once it crossed the[00:17:25.199][c] 05[/c][00:17:25.959][c] FIB[/c][00:17:26.520][c] that's[/c][00:17:26.679][c] where[/c][00:17:26.919][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:17:27.360][c] USD[/c] the 05 FIB that's where Bitcoin USD the 05 FIB that's where Bitcoin USD found[00:17:28.679][c] a[/c][00:17:29.200][c] midcycle[/c][00:17:29.600][c] top[/c][00:17:30.480][c] if[/c][00:17:30.559][c] you[/c][00:17:30.720][c] will[/c][00:17:31.200][c] what[/c] found a midcycle top if you will what found a midcycle top if you will what once[00:17:31.600][c] it[/c][00:17:31.799][c] crossed[/c][00:17:32.120][c] the[/c][00:17:32.240][c] 0.5[/c][00:17:32.840][c] FIB[/c][00:17:33.520][c] now[/c][00:17:33.760][c] if[/c][00:17:33.840][c] you[/c] once it crossed the 0.5 FIB now if you once it crossed the 0.5 FIB now if you look[00:17:34.120][c] at[/c][00:17:34.280][c] the[/c][00:17:34.480][c] same[/c][00:17:34.760][c] thing[/c][00:17:35.120][c] this[/c][00:17:35.360][c] cycle[/c][00:17:36.039][c] from[/c] look at the same thing this cycle from look at the same thing this cycle from when[00:17:36.400][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:17:36.880][c] dominance[/c][00:17:37.240][c] broke[/c][00:17:37.559][c] down[/c][00:17:38.320][c] you[/c] when Bitcoin dominance broke down you when Bitcoin dominance broke down you can[00:17:38.679][c] see[/c][00:17:38.960][c] that[/c][00:17:39.160][c] essentially[/c][00:17:39.640][c] when[/c][00:17:39.799][c] it[/c][00:17:40.039][c] crossed[/c] can see that essentially when it crossed can see that essentially when it crossed the[00:17:40.600][c] 0.5[/c][00:17:41.240][c] FIB[/c][00:17:41.919][c] earlier[/c][00:17:42.360][c] this[/c][00:17:42.520][c] year[/c][00:17:42.840][c] that's[/c] the 0.5 FIB earlier this year that's the 0.5 FIB earlier this year that's more[00:17:43.120][c] or[/c][00:17:43.280][c] less[/c][00:17:43.480][c] what[/c][00:17:43.640][c] marked[/c][00:17:44.039][c] which[/c][00:17:44.160][c] you[/c][00:17:44.240][c] might[/c] more or less what marked which you might more or less what marked which you might call[00:17:44.600][c] the[/c][00:17:44.760][c] mid[/c][00:17:45.039][c] cycle[/c][00:17:45.320][c] top[/c][00:17:45.520][c] for[/c][00:17:45.640][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:17:46.520][c] the[/c] call the mid cycle top for Bitcoin the call the mid cycle top for Bitcoin the problem[00:17:47.200][c] is[/c][00:17:47.360][c] that[/c][00:17:47.679][c] after[/c][00:17:47.919][c] it[/c][00:17:48.160][c] did[/c][00:17:48.480][c] that[/c][00:17:48.760][c] in[/c] problem is that after it did that in problem is that after it did that in 2019[00:17:50.360][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:17:50.880][c] then[/c][00:17:51.160][c] bled[/c][00:17:52.000][c] for[/c][00:17:52.320][c] about[/c][00:17:52.640][c] six[/c] 2019 Bitcoin then bled for about six 2019 Bitcoin then bled for about six months[00:17:53.600][c] while[/c][00:17:53.880][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:17:54.400][c] dominance[/c][00:17:54.880][c] went[/c][00:17:55.120][c] up[/c] months while Bitcoin dominance went up months while Bitcoin dominance went up so[00:17:55.679][c] you're[/c][00:17:55.919][c] essentially[/c][00:17:56.480][c] you[/c][00:17:56.720][c] this[/c][00:17:56.840][c] whole[/c] so you're essentially you this whole so you're essentially you this whole Bitcoin[00:17:57.400][c] dominance[/c][00:17:58.000][c] move[/c][00:17:58.880][c] has[/c][00:17:59.039][c] been[/c][00:17:59.200][c] on[/c][00:17:59.320][c] the[/c] Bitcoin dominance move has been on the Bitcoin dominance move has been on the back[00:17:59.600][c] of[/c][00:17:59.799][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:18:00.200][c] going[/c][00:18:00.559][c] up[/c][00:18:01.360][c] and[/c][00:18:01.640][c] now[/c][00:18:01.960][c] on[/c][00:18:02.120][c] the[/c] back of Bitcoin going up and now on the back of Bitcoin going up and now on the back[00:18:02.880][c] of[/c][00:18:03.159][c] of[/c][00:18:03.320][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:18:03.880][c] going[/c][00:18:04.720][c] down[/c][00:18:05.559][c] okay[/c][00:18:05.960][c] now[/c] back of of Bitcoin going down okay now back of of Bitcoin going down okay now if[00:18:06.200][c] you[/c][00:18:06.320][c] look[/c][00:18:06.520][c] closely[/c][00:18:07.039][c] of[/c][00:18:07.200][c] what[/c][00:18:07.559][c] happened[/c][00:18:08.559][c] um[/c] if you look closely of what happened um if you look closely of what happened um in[00:18:09.640][c] in[/c][00:18:10.039][c] uh[/c][00:18:10.240][c] the[/c][00:18:10.400][c] last[/c][00:18:10.679][c] cycle[/c][00:18:11.640][c] basically[/c][00:18:12.000][c] what[/c] in in uh the last cycle basically what in in uh the last cycle basically what happened[00:18:12.400][c] is[/c][00:18:12.520][c] You[/c][00:18:12.640][c] could[/c][00:18:12.799][c] argue[/c][00:18:13.280][c] that[/c][00:18:13.400][c] the[/c][00:18:13.480][c] FED[/c] happened is You could argue that the FED happened is You could argue that the FED achieved[00:18:14.000][c] a[/c][00:18:14.120][c] soft[/c][00:18:14.360][c] Landing[/c][00:18:15.280][c] um[/c][00:18:16.159][c] in[/c][00:18:16.400][c] 2019[/c] achieved a soft Landing um in 2019 achieved a soft Landing um in 2019 Bitcoin[00:18:17.640][c] fell[/c][00:18:17.960][c] back[/c][00:18:18.799][c] uh[/c][00:18:18.960][c] it[/c][00:18:19.120][c] dropped[/c][00:18:19.679][c] from[/c][00:18:19.880][c] the[/c] Bitcoin fell back uh it dropped from the Bitcoin fell back uh it dropped from the high[00:18:20.480][c] it[/c][00:18:20.640][c] dropped[/c][00:18:21.080][c] about[/c][00:18:21.480][c] you[/c][00:18:21.600][c] know[/c][00:18:21.840][c] 50%[/c][00:18:22.440][c] or[/c][00:18:22.600][c] so[/c] high it dropped about you know 50% or so high it dropped about you know 50% or so over[00:18:23.159][c] the[/c][00:18:23.280][c] course[/c][00:18:23.600][c] of[/c][00:18:23.840][c] of[/c][00:18:24.000][c] six[/c][00:18:24.280][c] months[/c][00:18:24.720][c] that's[/c] over the course of of six months that's over the course of of six months that's excluding[00:18:25.480][c] the[/c][00:18:25.679][c] pandemic[/c][00:18:26.520][c] but[/c][00:18:26.760][c] again[/c][00:18:27.000][c] you[/c] excluding the pandemic but again you excluding the pandemic but again you know[00:18:27.480][c] without[/c][00:18:27.720][c] the[/c][00:18:27.919][c] pandemic[/c][00:18:28.280][c] you[/c][00:18:28.360][c] could[/c][00:18:28.440][c] have[/c] know without the pandemic you could have know without the pandemic you could have argued[00:18:29.039][c] it[/c][00:18:29.159][c] was[/c][00:18:29.360][c] it[/c][00:18:29.440][c] was[/c][00:18:29.559][c] a[/c][00:18:29.640][c] soft[/c][00:18:29.919][c] Ling[/c][00:18:30.840][c] um[/c][00:18:31.360][c] so[/c][00:18:31.600][c] I[/c] argued it was it was a soft Ling um so I argued it was it was a soft Ling um so I I[00:18:31.880][c] think[/c][00:18:32.159][c] that[/c][00:18:32.400][c] is[/c][00:18:32.600][c] is[/c][00:18:32.760][c] kind[/c][00:18:32.880][c] of[/c][00:18:33.039][c] what[/c][00:18:33.200][c] we're[/c] I think that is is kind of what we're I think that is is kind of what we're coming[00:18:33.600][c] up[/c][00:18:33.799][c] against[/c][00:18:34.080][c] here[/c][00:18:34.240][c] in[/c][00:18:34.320][c] the[/c][00:18:34.440][c] next[/c][00:18:34.600][c] few[/c] coming up against here in the next few coming up against here in the next few months[00:18:35.159][c] we're[/c][00:18:35.280][c] basically[/c][00:18:35.600][c] going[/c][00:18:35.760][c] to[/c][00:18:35.919][c] find[/c][00:18:36.159][c] out[/c] months we're basically going to find out months we're basically going to find out if[00:18:37.200][c] this[/c][00:18:37.360][c] is[/c][00:18:37.600][c] a[/c][00:18:37.960][c] if[/c][00:18:38.039][c] it's[/c][00:18:38.200][c] a[/c][00:18:38.400][c] soft[/c][00:18:38.679][c] Landing[/c][00:18:39.080][c] like[/c] if this is a if it's a soft Landing like if this is a if it's a soft Landing like 2019[00:18:40.600][c] or[/c][00:18:40.960][c] if[/c][00:18:41.120][c] we[/c][00:18:41.320][c] get[/c][00:18:41.559][c] a[/c][00:18:41.720][c] hard[/c][00:18:41.960][c] Landing[/c][00:18:42.400][c] like[/c] 2019 or if we get a hard Landing like 2019 or if we get a hard Landing like 2020[00:18:43.799][c] I[/c][00:18:43.960][c] think[/c][00:18:44.240][c] you[/c][00:18:44.360][c] know[/c][00:18:44.559][c] I[/c][00:18:44.919][c] my[/c][00:18:45.039][c] my[/c][00:18:45.159][c] base[/c][00:18:45.480][c] case[/c] 2020 I think you know I my my base case 2020 I think you know I my my base case right[00:18:46.000][c] now[/c][00:18:46.120][c] and[/c][00:18:46.240][c] it[/c][00:18:46.360][c] has[/c][00:18:46.480][c] been[/c][00:18:46.600][c] for[/c][00:18:46.760][c] a[/c][00:18:46.919][c] while[/c] right now and it has been for a while right now and it has been for a while basically[00:18:47.480][c] ever[/c][00:18:47.679][c] since[/c][00:18:47.919][c] March[/c][00:18:48.520][c] that[/c][00:18:48.679][c] at[/c][00:18:48.799][c] the[/c] basically ever since March that at the basically ever since March that at the very[00:18:49.280][c] least[/c][00:18:49.919][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:18:50.360][c] will[/c][00:18:50.559][c] cool[/c][00:18:50.880][c] off[/c][00:18:51.480][c] for[/c][00:18:51.919][c] six[/c] very least Bitcoin will cool off for six very least Bitcoin will cool off for six to[00:18:52.400][c] nine[/c][00:18:52.640][c] months[/c][00:18:53.400][c] this[/c][00:18:53.520][c] is[/c][00:18:53.600][c] what[/c][00:18:53.720][c] I[/c][00:18:53.799][c] said[/c][00:18:53.960][c] back[/c] to nine months this is what I said back to nine months this is what I said back in[00:18:54.280][c] March[/c][00:18:54.480][c] and[/c][00:18:54.559][c] one[/c][00:18:54.640][c] of[/c][00:18:54.720][c] the[/c][00:18:54.799][c] reasons[/c][00:18:55.159][c] was[/c] in March and one of the reasons was in March and one of the reasons was because[00:18:55.520][c] the[/c][00:18:55.640][c] market[/c][00:18:56.039][c] got[/c][00:18:56.480][c] so[/c][00:18:56.880][c] far[/c][00:18:57.280][c] ahead[/c][00:18:57.480][c] of[/c] because the market got so far ahead of because the market got so far ahead of itself[00:18:58.320][c] one[/c][00:18:58.480][c] way[/c][00:18:58.880][c] visualize[/c][00:18:59.440][c] that[/c][00:18:59.679][c] actually[/c] itself one way visualize that actually itself one way visualize that actually is[00:19:00.159][c] to[/c][00:19:00.400][c] just[/c][00:19:00.640][c] look[/c][00:19:00.880][c] at[/c][00:19:01.000][c] the[/c][00:19:01.320][c] ROI[/c][00:19:02.320][c] of[/c][00:19:02.600][c] Bitcoin[/c] is to just look at the ROI of Bitcoin is to just look at the ROI of Bitcoin from[00:19:03.440][c] the[/c][00:19:03.600][c] lows[/c][00:19:04.080][c] in[/c][00:19:04.559][c] 2022[/c][00:19:05.559][c] and[/c][00:19:05.679][c] one[/c][00:19:05.799][c] of[/c][00:19:05.880][c] the[/c] from the lows in 2022 and one of the from the lows in 2022 and one of the things[00:19:06.080][c] you'll[/c][00:19:06.320][c] notice[/c][00:19:07.200][c] is[/c][00:19:07.400][c] that[/c][00:19:07.919][c] it's[/c] things you'll notice is that it's things you'll notice is that it's actually[00:19:08.520][c] right[/c][00:19:08.679][c] where[/c][00:19:08.919][c] the[/c][00:19:09.080][c] last[/c][00:19:09.240][c] two[/c][00:19:09.480][c] cycles[/c] actually right where the last two cycles actually right where the last two cycles were[00:19:10.400][c] essentially[/c][00:19:10.960][c] at[/c][00:19:11.159][c] this[/c][00:19:11.360][c] point[/c][00:19:11.640][c] in[/c][00:19:11.799][c] the[/c] were essentially at this point in the were essentially at this point in the cycle[00:19:12.679][c] so[/c][00:19:13.039][c] you[/c][00:19:13.120][c] know[/c][00:19:13.320][c] back[/c][00:19:13.520][c] over[/c][00:19:13.720][c] here[/c][00:19:13.880][c] in[/c] cycle so you know back over here in cycle so you know back over here in March[00:19:14.760][c] when[/c][00:19:14.919][c] the[/c][00:19:15.039][c] ROI[/c][00:19:15.559][c] of[/c][00:19:15.720][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:19:16.080][c] from[/c][00:19:16.240][c] the[/c] March when the ROI of Bitcoin from the March when the ROI of Bitcoin from the low[00:19:17.200][c] was[/c][00:19:17.480][c] over[/c][00:19:17.799][c] four[/c][00:19:18.559][c] over[/c][00:19:19.000][c] 4.3[/c][00:19:20.000][c] the[/c][00:19:20.200][c] last[/c][00:19:20.440][c] two[/c] low was over four over 4.3 the last two low was over four over 4.3 the last two cycles[00:19:21.080][c] at[/c][00:19:21.280][c] that[/c][00:19:21.440][c] point[/c][00:19:21.600][c] in[/c][00:19:21.720][c] the[/c][00:19:21.840][c] cycle[/c][00:19:22.159][c] it[/c][00:19:22.240][c] was[/c] cycles at that point in the cycle it was cycles at that point in the cycle it was still[00:19:22.760][c] around[/c][00:19:23.000][c] two[/c][00:19:23.200][c] to[/c][00:19:23.400][c] two[/c][00:19:23.600][c] and[/c][00:19:23.720][c] a[/c][00:19:23.880][c] half[/c][00:19:24.400][c] so[/c][00:19:24.559][c] it[/c] still around two to two and a half so it still around two to two and a half so it made[00:19:25.000][c] sense[/c][00:19:25.280][c] for[/c][00:19:25.480][c] the[/c][00:19:25.640][c] market[/c][00:19:25.919][c] to[/c][00:19:26.080][c] cool[/c][00:19:26.320][c] off[/c] made sense for the market to cool off made sense for the market to cool off for[00:19:26.640][c] a[/c][00:19:26.760][c] while[/c][00:19:27.039][c] so[/c][00:19:28.000][c] I[/c][00:19:28.080][c] think[/c][00:19:28.240][c] you're[/c][00:19:28.440][c] at[/c][00:19:28.520][c] least[/c] for a while so I think you're at least for a while so I think you're at least least[00:19:28.960][c] going[/c][00:19:29.039][c] to[/c][00:19:29.159][c] see[/c][00:19:29.320][c] the[/c][00:19:29.440][c] market[/c][00:19:30.240][c] continue[/c] least going to see the market continue least going to see the market continue to[00:19:30.720][c] cool[/c][00:19:30.960][c] off[/c][00:19:31.159][c] for[/c][00:19:31.360][c] at[/c][00:19:31.520][c] least[/c][00:19:31.760][c] a[/c][00:19:31.880][c] few[/c][00:19:32.080][c] more[/c][00:19:32.440][c] you[/c] to cool off for at least a few more you to cool off for at least a few more you know[00:19:32.600][c] at[/c][00:19:32.679][c] least[/c][00:19:32.840][c] a[/c][00:19:32.919][c] couple[/c][00:19:33.120][c] more[/c][00:19:33.280][c] months[/c][00:19:33.559][c] and[/c] know at least a couple more months and know at least a couple more months and it[00:19:33.840][c] could[/c][00:19:34.159][c] go[/c][00:19:34.960][c] uh[/c][00:19:35.080][c] through[/c][00:19:35.240][c] the[/c][00:19:35.320][c] end[/c][00:19:35.440][c] of[/c][00:19:35.559][c] the[/c] it could go uh through the end of the it could go uh through the end of the year[00:19:36.159][c] it's[/c][00:19:36.400][c] possible[/c][00:19:36.720][c] for[/c][00:19:36.880][c] it[/c][00:19:36.960][c] to[/c][00:19:37.080][c] go[/c][00:19:37.200][c] through[/c] year it's possible for it to go through year it's possible for it to go through the[00:19:37.400][c] end[/c][00:19:37.520][c] of[/c][00:19:37.600][c] the[/c][00:19:37.679][c] year[/c][00:19:38.280][c] but[/c][00:19:38.640][c] I[/c][00:19:38.760][c] think[/c][00:19:39.000][c] that[/c][00:19:39.159][c] if[/c] the end of the year but I think that if the end of the year but I think that if if[00:19:39.480][c] the[/c][00:19:39.600][c] FED[/c][00:19:39.840][c] does[/c][00:19:40.280][c] engineer[/c][00:19:41.280][c] um[/c][00:19:41.640][c] a[/c][00:19:41.760][c] soft[/c] if the FED does engineer um a soft if the FED does engineer um a soft Landing[00:19:42.480][c] or[/c][00:19:42.600][c] at[/c][00:19:42.679][c] least[/c][00:19:42.840][c] some[/c][00:19:43.039][c] remnant[/c][00:19:43.480][c] of[/c][00:19:43.640][c] it[/c] Landing or at least some remnant of it Landing or at least some remnant of it then[00:19:44.200][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:19:44.679][c] could[/c][00:19:44.880][c] maybe[/c][00:19:45.120][c] pick[/c][00:19:45.320][c] back[/c][00:19:45.559][c] up[/c][00:19:45.799][c] in[/c] then Bitcoin could maybe pick back up in then Bitcoin could maybe pick back up in 2025[00:19:47.000][c] I've[/c][00:19:47.120][c] heard[/c][00:19:47.280][c] in[/c][00:19:47.360][c] my[/c][00:19:47.480][c] show[/c][00:19:47.720][c] that[/c][00:19:47.919][c] $50,000[/c] 2025 I've heard in my show that $50,000 2025 I've heard in my show that $50,000 is[00:19:49.039][c] the[/c][00:19:49.159][c] floor[/c][00:19:49.520][c] and[/c][00:19:49.679][c] certainly[/c][00:19:50.240][c] uh[/c][00:19:50.360][c] it's[/c][00:19:50.559][c] had[/c][00:19:50.679][c] a[/c] is the floor and certainly uh it's had a is the floor and certainly uh it's had a hard[00:19:51.120][c] time[/c][00:19:52.120][c] um[/c][00:19:52.679][c] breaking[/c][00:19:53.080][c] below[/c][00:19:53.960][c] that[/c][00:19:54.159][c] support[/c] hard time um breaking below that support hard time um breaking below that support level[00:19:54.919][c] it[/c][00:19:55.679][c] very[/c][00:19:56.400][c] briefly[/c][00:19:57.000][c] touched[/c][00:19:57.640][c] $49,000[/c][00:19:58.720][c] at[/c] level it very briefly touched $49,000 at level it very briefly touched $49,000 at one[00:19:59.000][c] point[/c][00:19:59.280][c] last[/c][00:19:59.520][c] week[/c][00:20:00.039][c] um[/c][00:20:00.400][c] does[/c][00:20:00.559][c] that[/c][00:20:00.720][c] make[/c] one point last week um does that make one point last week um does that make sense[00:20:01.080][c] to[/c][00:20:01.200][c] you[/c][00:20:01.400][c] 50,000[/c][00:20:01.960][c] is[/c][00:20:02.039][c] a[/c][00:20:02.159][c] new[/c][00:20:02.720][c] floor[/c][00:20:03.720][c] you[/c] sense to you 50,000 is a new floor you sense to you 50,000 is a new floor you know[00:20:04.280][c] the[/c][00:20:04.360][c] one[/c][00:20:04.480][c] thing[/c][00:20:04.600][c] I've[/c][00:20:04.720][c] learned[/c][00:20:04.960][c] with[/c] know the one thing I've learned with know the one thing I've learned with Bitcoin[00:20:05.440][c] Through[/c][00:20:05.559][c] The[/c][00:20:05.679][c] Years[/c][00:20:05.840][c] is[/c][00:20:06.000][c] you[/c][00:20:06.120][c] never[/c] Bitcoin Through The Years is you never Bitcoin Through The Years is you never should[00:20:06.679][c] ever[/c][00:20:06.880][c] call[/c][00:20:07.120][c] a[/c][00:20:07.240][c] floor[/c][00:20:07.679][c] or[/c][00:20:07.840][c] a[/c][00:20:08.039][c] top[/c] should ever call a floor or a top should ever call a floor or a top because[00:20:08.919][c] usually[/c][00:20:09.240][c] those[/c][00:20:09.440][c] things[/c][00:20:09.760][c] given[/c] because usually those things given because usually those things given enough[00:20:10.320][c] time[/c][00:20:10.520][c] are[/c][00:20:10.880][c] broken[/c][00:20:11.880][c] um[/c][00:20:12.640][c] uh[/c][00:20:12.919][c] so[/c][00:20:13.120][c] I[/c][00:20:13.240][c] I[/c] enough time are broken um uh so I I enough time are broken um uh so I I would[00:20:13.480][c] say[/c][00:20:13.640][c] that[/c][00:20:13.919][c] I[/c][00:20:14.000][c] wouldn't[/c][00:20:14.320][c] I[/c][00:20:14.400][c] wouldn't[/c][00:20:14.840][c] go[/c] would say that I wouldn't I wouldn't go would say that I wouldn't I wouldn't go that[00:20:15.520][c] far[/c][00:20:15.799][c] to[/c][00:20:16.080][c] say[/c][00:20:16.400][c] that[/c][00:20:16.600][c] it[/c][00:20:16.760][c] it[/c][00:20:16.919][c] can't[/c][00:20:17.159][c] go[/c] that far to say that it it can't go that far to say that it it can't go below[00:20:18.159][c] 50k[/c][00:20:19.159][c] um[/c][00:20:19.919][c] one[/c][00:20:20.039][c] of[/c][00:20:20.200][c] the[/c][00:20:20.400][c] things[/c][00:20:20.799][c] that[/c][00:20:21.159][c] I[/c][00:20:21.360][c] I[/c] below 50k um one of the things that I I below 50k um one of the things that I I I[00:20:21.559][c] think[/c][00:20:21.760][c] about[/c][00:20:22.000][c] as[/c][00:20:22.240][c] well[/c][00:20:23.000][c] with[/c][00:20:23.200][c] with[/c][00:20:23.360][c] regards[/c] I think about as well with with regards I think about as well with with regards to[00:20:23.799][c] bitcoin[/c][00:20:24.600][c] and[/c][00:20:25.120][c] and[/c][00:20:25.480][c] you[/c][00:20:25.600][c] know[/c][00:20:25.760][c] that[/c][00:20:25.880][c] sort[/c][00:20:26.000][c] of[/c] to bitcoin and and you know that sort of to bitcoin and and you know that sort of that[00:20:26.240][c] 50k[/c][00:20:26.760][c] level[/c][00:20:26.960][c] I[/c][00:20:27.000][c] mean[/c][00:20:27.159][c] even[/c][00:20:27.360][c] look[/c][00:20:27.720][c] even[/c] that 50k level I mean even look even that 50k level I mean even look even look[00:20:28.000][c] at[/c][00:20:28.120][c] 2019[/c][00:20:28.880][c] right[/c][00:20:29.039][c] you[/c][00:20:29.120][c] know[/c][00:20:29.320][c] after[/c][00:20:29.640][c] it[/c] look at 2019 right you know after it look at 2019 right you know after it after[00:20:30.360][c] it[/c][00:20:30.559][c] had[/c][00:20:30.720][c] this[/c][00:20:30.919][c] explosive[/c][00:20:31.400][c] rally[/c][00:20:31.760][c] it[/c] after it had this explosive rally it after it had this explosive rally it eventually[00:20:32.320][c] dropped[/c][00:20:32.840][c] back[/c][00:20:33.039][c] down[/c][00:20:33.360][c] to[/c][00:20:33.559][c] the[/c][00:20:33.919][c] 100[/c] eventually dropped back down to the 100 eventually dropped back down to the 100 we[00:20:34.360][c] SME[/c][00:20:35.240][c] right[/c][00:20:35.440][c] it[/c][00:20:35.640][c] that's[/c][00:20:35.799][c] where[/c][00:20:35.919][c] it[/c] we SME right it that's where it we SME right it that's where it ultimately[00:20:36.440][c] went[/c][00:20:37.280][c] uh[/c][00:20:37.440][c] before[/c][00:20:37.840][c] finally[/c] ultimately went uh before finally ultimately went uh before finally bouncing[00:20:38.720][c] off[/c][00:20:38.960][c] of[/c][00:20:39.120][c] it[/c][00:20:39.559][c] and[/c][00:20:39.679][c] I[/c][00:20:39.760][c] mean[/c][00:20:39.919][c] you[/c][00:20:40.000][c] know[/c] bouncing off of it and I mean you know bouncing off of it and I mean you know the[00:20:40.520][c] the[/c][00:20:40.799][c] 100[/c][00:20:40.960][c] we[/c][00:20:41.200][c] SMA[/c][00:20:41.679][c] right[/c][00:20:41.840][c] now[/c][00:20:42.200][c] is[/c][00:20:42.480][c] is[/c] the the 100 we SMA right now is is the the 100 we SMA right now is is approaching[00:20:43.320][c] it's[/c][00:20:43.480][c] it's[/c][00:20:43.600][c] almost[/c][00:20:43.799][c] at[/c][00:20:43.960][c] 38k[/c][00:20:44.840][c] so[/c] approaching it's it's almost at 38k so approaching it's it's almost at 38k so you[00:20:45.159][c] know[/c][00:20:45.280][c] you[/c][00:20:45.400][c] give[/c][00:20:45.520][c] it[/c][00:20:45.600][c] a[/c][00:20:45.720][c] few[/c][00:20:45.840][c] more[/c][00:20:46.080][c] months[/c] you know you give it a few more months you know you give it a few more months and[00:20:47.039][c] it's[/c][00:20:47.240][c] essentially[/c][00:20:47.600][c] going[/c][00:20:47.679][c] to[/c][00:20:47.799][c] be[/c][00:20:48.000][c] at[/c][00:20:48.120][c] at[/c] and it's essentially going to be at at and it's essentially going to be at at bitcoin's[00:20:48.720][c] yearly[/c][00:20:49.039][c] open[/c][00:20:49.400][c] which[/c][00:20:49.480][c] is[/c][00:20:49.600][c] in[/c][00:20:49.679][c] the[/c] bitcoin's yearly open which is in the bitcoin's yearly open which is in the low[00:20:49.960][c] 40s[/c][00:20:50.600][c] so[/c][00:20:51.159][c] look[/c][00:20:51.880][c] it[/c][00:20:52.080][c] it's[/c][00:20:52.320][c] possible[/c][00:20:52.919][c] for[/c][00:20:53.200][c] for[/c] low 40s so look it it's possible for for low 40s so look it it's possible for for for[00:20:53.720][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:20:54.600][c] to[/c][00:20:54.919][c] to[/c][00:20:55.039][c] see[/c][00:20:55.320][c] something[/c][00:20:55.640][c] like[/c] for Bitcoin to to see something like for Bitcoin to to see something like that[00:20:55.960][c] and[/c][00:20:56.080][c] I[/c][00:20:56.200][c] know[/c][00:20:56.440][c] those[/c][00:20:56.600][c] are[/c][00:20:56.799][c] not[/c][00:20:57.039][c] popular[/c] that and I know those are not popular that and I know those are not popular views[00:20:57.880][c] and[/c][00:20:58.000][c] it[/c][00:20:58.120][c] and[/c][00:20:58.200][c] it[/c][00:20:58.280][c] very[/c][00:20:58.880][c] could[/c][00:20:59.000][c] be[/c][00:20:59.159][c] wrong[/c] views and it and it very could be wrong views and it and it very could be wrong and[00:20:59.480][c] I'm[/c][00:20:59.640][c] not[/c][00:20:59.840][c] saying[/c][00:21:00.440][c] I'm[/c][00:21:00.559][c] certainly[/c][00:21:00.919][c] not[/c] and I'm not saying I'm certainly not and I'm not saying I'm certainly not suggesting[00:21:01.600][c] that[/c][00:21:01.720][c] it[/c][00:21:01.919][c] has[/c][00:21:02.080][c] to[/c][00:21:02.280][c] go[/c][00:21:02.480][c] there[/c][00:21:03.240][c] but[/c] suggesting that it has to go there but suggesting that it has to go there but one[00:21:04.240][c] of[/c][00:21:04.360][c] the[/c][00:21:04.480][c] things[/c][00:21:04.640][c] that[/c][00:21:04.799][c] I've[/c][00:21:05.039][c] also[/c][00:21:05.360][c] noticed[/c] one of the things that I've also noticed one of the things that I've also noticed though[00:21:06.679][c] um[/c][00:21:06.960][c] with[/c][00:21:07.559][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:21:08.559][c] and[/c][00:21:08.799][c] I[/c][00:21:08.880][c] you[/c][00:21:08.960][c] know[/c] though um with Bitcoin and I you know though um with Bitcoin and I you know I've[00:21:09.200][c] talked[/c][00:21:09.440][c] about[/c][00:21:09.559][c] this[/c][00:21:09.679][c] a[/c][00:21:09.799][c] lot[/c][00:21:10.039][c] is[/c][00:21:10.279][c] if[/c][00:21:10.360][c] you[/c] I've talked about this a lot is if you I've talked about this a lot is if you go[00:21:10.720][c] back[/c][00:21:10.880][c] to[/c][00:21:11.080][c] that[/c][00:21:11.279][c] risk[/c][00:21:11.559][c] chart[/c][00:21:12.360][c] uh[/c][00:21:12.440][c] that[/c][00:21:12.520][c] I[/c][00:21:12.600][c] was[/c] go back to that risk chart uh that I was go back to that risk chart uh that I was talking[00:21:12.960][c] about[/c][00:21:13.159][c] earlier[/c][00:21:13.880][c] the[/c][00:21:14.000][c] current[/c][00:21:14.279][c] risk[/c] talking about earlier the current risk talking about earlier the current risk on[00:21:14.799][c] bitcoin[/c][00:21:15.360][c] is[/c][00:21:15.520][c] is[/c][00:21:15.640][c] 0498[/c][00:21:16.600][c] but[/c][00:21:16.760][c] what[/c][00:21:16.880][c] I'd[/c][00:21:17.039][c] like[/c] on bitcoin is is 0498 but what I'd like on bitcoin is is 0498 but what I'd like to[00:21:17.279][c] do[/c][00:21:17.480][c] is[/c][00:21:17.640][c] I'd[/c][00:21:17.799][c] like[/c][00:21:17.960][c] to[/c][00:21:18.159][c] isolate[/c][00:21:18.760][c] any[/c][00:21:19.120][c] time[/c] to do is I'd like to isolate any time to do is I'd like to isolate any time you[00:21:20.000][c] know[/c][00:21:20.279][c] it[/c][00:21:20.440][c] went[/c][00:21:20.840][c] to[/c][00:21:21.320][c] at[/c][00:21:21.440][c] least[/c][00:21:21.960][c] 7[/c][00:21:22.240][c] to8[/c][00:21:23.080][c] and[/c] you know it went to at least 7 to8 and you know it went to at least 7 to8 and you[00:21:23.279][c] can[/c][00:21:23.400][c] see[/c][00:21:23.600][c] that[/c][00:21:23.760][c] that's[/c][00:21:23.960][c] where[/c][00:21:24.120][c] we[/c][00:21:24.240][c] went[/c] you can see that that's where we went you can see that that's where we went back[00:21:24.760][c] in[/c][00:21:25.120][c] March[/c][00:21:26.120][c] um[/c][00:21:26.559][c] 7[/c][00:21:26.799][c] to[/c][00:21:26.960][c] point8[/c][00:21:27.880][c] every[/c][00:21:28.200][c] sing[/c] back in March um 7 to point8 every sing back in March um 7 to point8 every sing time[00:21:29.320][c] in[/c][00:21:29.480][c] bitcoin's[/c][00:21:30.080][c] history[/c][00:21:30.799][c] that[/c][00:21:30.960][c] it's[/c][00:21:31.240][c] gone[/c] time in bitcoin's history that it's gone time in bitcoin's history that it's gone to[00:21:31.720][c] the[/c][00:21:32.159][c] 7[/c][00:21:32.480][c] to[/c][00:21:32.559][c] 08[/c] to the 7 to 08 to the 7 to 08 wristband[00:21:34.480][c] it's[/c][00:21:34.720][c] it's[/c][00:21:34.880][c] shortly[/c][00:21:35.360][c] it's[/c][00:21:35.559][c] gone[/c][00:21:35.760][c] to[/c] wristband it's it's shortly it's gone to wristband it's it's shortly it's gone to the3[00:21:36.559][c] to[/c][00:21:36.679][c] point4[/c][00:21:37.400][c] wristban[/c][00:21:38.400][c] you[/c][00:21:38.520][c] know[/c][00:21:38.880][c] within[/c] the3 to point4 wristban you know within the3 to point4 wristban you know within six[00:21:40.039][c] to[/c][00:21:40.200][c] nine[/c][00:21:40.400][c] months[/c][00:21:40.799][c] or[/c][00:21:40.960][c] so[/c][00:21:41.279][c] right[/c][00:21:41.400][c] so[/c][00:21:41.559][c] here[/c] six to nine months or so right so here six to nine months or so right so here in[00:21:42.039][c] 2011[/c][00:21:43.039][c] here[/c][00:21:43.360][c] in[/c][00:21:43.559][c] in[/c][00:21:43.840][c] 2013[/c][00:21:44.840][c] here[/c][00:21:45.000][c] in[/c][00:21:45.159][c] 2017[/c] in 2011 here in in 2013 here in 2017 in 2011 here in in 2013 here in 2017 here[00:21:46.240][c] in[/c][00:21:46.679][c] 2021[/c][00:21:47.679][c] and[/c][00:21:47.840][c] it[/c][00:21:48.120][c] hasn't[/c][00:21:48.520][c] done[/c][00:21:48.799][c] that[/c][00:21:49.080][c] yet[/c] here in 2021 and it hasn't done that yet here in 2021 and it hasn't done that yet right[00:21:49.600][c] it[/c][00:21:49.760][c] hasn't[/c][00:21:50.080][c] done[/c][00:21:50.400][c] that[/c][00:21:50.640][c] yet[/c][00:21:51.279][c] in[/c][00:21:51.520][c] in[/c][00:21:51.679][c] this[/c] right it hasn't done that yet in in this right it hasn't done that yet in in this cycle[00:21:52.120][c] it's[/c][00:21:52.279][c] gotten[/c][00:21:52.600][c] close[/c][00:21:53.039][c] right[/c][00:21:53.159][c] it[/c][00:21:53.240][c] went[/c][00:21:53.400][c] to[/c] cycle it's gotten close right it went to cycle it's gotten close right it went to the[00:21:53.600][c] 04[/c][00:21:54.039][c] to[/c][00:21:54.200][c] 0.5[/c][00:21:54.840][c] risk[/c][00:21:55.120][c] level[/c][00:21:55.679][c] but[/c][00:21:55.799][c] it[/c][00:21:55.919][c] hasn't[/c] the 04 to 0.5 risk level but it hasn't the 04 to 0.5 risk level but it hasn't gone[00:21:56.320][c] to[/c][00:21:56.559][c] that.[/c][00:21:56.880][c] 3[/c][00:21:57.080][c] to[/c][00:21:57.240][c] 04[/c][00:21:57.880][c] so[/c][00:21:58.720][c] I[/c][00:21:58.840][c] still[/c][00:21:59.200][c] think[/c] gone to that. 3 to 04 so I still think gone to that. 3 to 04 so I still think there[00:21:59.720][c] is[/c][00:21:59.880][c] a[/c][00:22:00.159][c] risk[/c][00:22:00.720][c] of[/c][00:22:00.919][c] of[/c][00:22:01.000][c] seeing[/c][00:22:01.279][c] something[/c] there is a risk of of seeing something there is a risk of of seeing something like[00:22:01.720][c] that[/c][00:22:01.880][c] and[/c][00:22:02.039][c] I[/c][00:22:02.159][c] I[/c][00:22:02.320][c] think[/c][00:22:02.520][c] if[/c][00:22:02.679][c] you[/c][00:22:02.760][c] know[/c][00:22:02.960][c] if[/c] like that and I I think if you know if like that and I I think if you know if what[00:22:03.279][c] is[/c][00:22:03.400][c] the[/c][00:22:03.600][c] Catalyst[/c][00:22:04.000][c] for[/c][00:22:04.200][c] something[/c][00:22:04.480][c] like[/c] what is the Catalyst for something like what is the Catalyst for something like that[00:22:05.400][c] it[/c][00:22:05.559][c] could[/c][00:22:05.720][c] be[/c][00:22:05.960][c] something[/c][00:22:06.279][c] as[/c][00:22:06.559][c] simple[/c][00:22:06.840][c] as[/c] that it could be something as simple as that it could be something as simple as like[00:22:07.640][c] you'll[/c][00:22:08.080][c] curve[/c][00:22:08.279][c] on[/c][00:22:08.480][c] inversion[/c][00:22:09.080][c] for[/c] like you'll curve on inversion for like you'll curve on inversion for whatever[00:22:09.960][c] reason[/c][00:22:10.440][c] you[/c][00:22:10.520][c] know[/c][00:22:10.760][c] maybe[/c][00:22:11.120][c] it's[/c][00:22:11.279][c] the[/c] whatever reason you know maybe it's the whatever reason you know maybe it's the unemployment[00:22:11.960][c] rate[/c][00:22:12.120][c] going[/c][00:22:12.400][c] higher[/c][00:22:13.120][c] maybe[/c] unemployment rate going higher maybe unemployment rate going higher maybe it's[00:22:13.720][c] the[/c][00:22:13.880][c] the[/c][00:22:14.000][c] market[/c][00:22:14.360][c] being[/c][00:22:14.600][c] fearful[/c][00:22:15.000][c] that[/c] it's the the market being fearful that it's the the market being fearful that the[00:22:15.240][c] fed's[/c][00:22:15.600][c] going[/c][00:22:15.679][c] to[/c][00:22:15.919][c] have[/c][00:22:16.039][c] a[/c][00:22:16.200][c] second[/c][00:22:16.480][c] wave[/c][00:22:16.679][c] of[/c] the fed's going to have a second wave of the fed's going to have a second wave of inflation[00:22:17.279][c] or[/c][00:22:17.440][c] a[/c][00:22:17.559][c] deflationary[/c][00:22:18.200][c] crash[/c][00:22:18.640][c] I[/c] inflation or a deflationary crash I inflation or a deflationary crash I don't[00:22:18.840][c] know[/c][00:22:19.000][c] what[/c][00:22:19.120][c] it's[/c][00:22:19.279][c] going[/c][00:22:19.360][c] to[/c][00:22:19.600][c] be[/c][00:22:20.480][c] but[/c] don't know what it's going to be but don't know what it's going to be but that[00:22:21.679][c] that's[/c][00:22:22.240][c] that[/c][00:22:22.400][c] could[/c][00:22:22.720][c] theoretically[/c] that that's that could theoretically that that's that could theoretically happen[00:22:24.039][c] uh[/c][00:22:24.159][c] before[/c][00:22:24.360][c] the[/c][00:22:24.480][c] end[/c][00:22:24.640][c] of[/c][00:22:24.720][c] the[/c][00:22:24.840][c] year[/c][00:22:25.039][c] and[/c] happen uh before the end of the year and happen uh before the end of the year and I[00:22:25.360][c] don't[/c][00:22:25.640][c] if[/c][00:22:25.840][c] if[/c][00:22:25.960][c] it[/c][00:22:26.080][c] does[/c][00:22:26.400][c] happen[/c][00:22:27.279][c] it's[/c][00:22:27.480][c] just[/c] I don't if if it does happen it's just I don't if if it does happen it's just repeated[00:22:30.200][c] very[/c][00:22:30.480][c] good[/c][00:22:30.799][c] uh[/c][00:22:30.960][c] Ben[/c][00:22:31.279][c] let's[/c][00:22:31.640][c] talk[/c] repeated very good uh Ben let's talk repeated very good uh Ben let's talk about[00:22:32.159][c] this[/c][00:22:32.320][c] tool[/c][00:22:32.760][c] on[/c][00:22:32.919][c] your[/c][00:22:33.120][c] platform[/c][00:22:33.559][c] that[/c][00:22:33.720][c] I[/c] about this tool on your platform that I about this tool on your platform that I personally[00:22:34.279][c] really[/c][00:22:34.520][c] like[/c][00:22:34.760][c] it's[/c][00:22:34.960][c] the[/c][00:22:35.240][c] um[/c] personally really like it's the um personally really like it's the um modern[00:22:36.240][c] portfolio[/c][00:22:36.880][c] Theory[/c][00:22:37.279][c] Tool[/c][00:22:38.240][c] uh[/c][00:22:38.400][c] which[/c] modern portfolio Theory Tool uh which modern portfolio Theory Tool uh which basically[00:22:39.440][c] um[/c][00:22:39.919][c] it[/c][00:22:40.200][c] gives[/c][00:22:41.039][c] uh[/c][00:22:41.159][c] the[/c][00:22:41.320][c] user[/c][00:22:41.799][c] an[/c] basically um it gives uh the user an basically um it gives uh the user an optimal[00:22:42.799][c] portfolio[/c][00:22:43.640][c] allocation[/c][00:22:44.640][c] um[/c][00:22:45.000][c] can[/c][00:22:45.120][c] you[/c] optimal portfolio allocation um can you optimal portfolio allocation um can you just[00:22:45.960][c] walk[/c][00:22:46.159][c] us[/c][00:22:46.320][c] through[/c][00:22:46.559][c] how[/c][00:22:46.720][c] this[/c][00:22:46.880][c] works[/c][00:22:47.159][c] and[/c] just walk us through how this works and just walk us through how this works and what[00:22:47.520][c] it's[/c][00:22:47.720][c] currently[/c] what it's currently what it's currently showing[00:22:49.600][c] yeah[/c][00:22:49.760][c] I[/c][00:22:49.799][c] mean[/c][00:22:49.919][c] I[/c][00:22:50.000][c] think[/c][00:22:50.120][c] the[/c][00:22:50.240][c] point[/c][00:22:50.480][c] is[/c] showing yeah I mean I think the point is showing yeah I mean I think the point is like[00:22:50.760][c] you[/c][00:22:50.840][c] know[/c][00:22:50.960][c] to[/c][00:22:51.320][c] understand[/c][00:22:51.440][c] this[/c][00:22:51.559][c] tool[/c] like you know to understand this tool like you know to understand this tool the[00:22:51.960][c] point[/c][00:22:52.200][c] is[/c][00:22:52.320][c] is[/c][00:22:52.760][c] the[/c][00:22:52.880][c] reality[/c][00:22:53.600][c] is[/c][00:22:53.679][c] that[/c][00:22:53.840][c] no[/c] the point is is the reality is that no the point is is the reality is that no one[00:22:54.159][c] knows[/c][00:22:54.400][c] where[/c][00:22:54.520][c] the[/c][00:22:54.640][c] price[/c][00:22:54.799][c] of[/c][00:22:54.880][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:22:55.200][c] is[/c] one knows where the price of Bitcoin is one knows where the price of Bitcoin is going[00:22:55.360][c] to[/c][00:22:55.520][c] go[/c][00:22:55.880][c] right[/c][00:22:56.200][c] you[/c][00:22:56.360][c] don't[/c][00:22:56.559][c] know[/c][00:22:56.880][c] I[/c][00:22:56.960][c] don't[/c] going to go right you don't know I don't going to go right you don't know I don't know[00:22:57.520][c] I[/c][00:22:57.559][c] mean[/c][00:22:57.720][c] I[/c][00:22:57.840][c] definitely[/c][00:22:58.159][c] don't[/c][00:22:58.880][c] I[/c] know I mean I definitely don't I know I mean I definitely don't I definitely[00:22:59.279][c] don't[/c][00:22:59.400][c] know[/c][00:22:59.559][c] where[/c][00:22:59.640][c] the[/c][00:22:59.760][c] Market's[/c] definitely don't know where the Market's definitely don't know where the Market's going[00:23:00.200][c] to[/c][00:23:00.400][c] go[/c][00:23:01.240][c] um[/c][00:23:01.960][c] it's[/c][00:23:02.080][c] all[/c][00:23:02.320][c] just[/c][00:23:02.640][c] you[/c][00:23:02.760][c] know[/c] going to go um it's all just you know going to go um it's all just you know guess[00:23:03.320][c] where[/c][00:23:03.840][c] right[/c][00:23:04.039][c] based[/c][00:23:04.360][c] on[/c][00:23:04.840][c] on[/c][00:23:05.400][c] data[/c][00:23:06.159][c] and[/c] guess where right based on on data and guess where right based on on data and what[00:23:06.400][c] we[/c][00:23:06.600][c] think[/c][00:23:06.880][c] where[/c][00:23:07.039][c] the[/c][00:23:07.200][c] you[/c][00:23:07.279][c] know[/c][00:23:07.400][c] where[/c] what we think where the you know where what we think where the you know where things[00:23:07.760][c] might[/c][00:23:07.960][c] actually[/c][00:23:08.200][c] go[/c][00:23:08.919][c] so[/c][00:23:09.159][c] one[/c][00:23:09.240][c] of[/c][00:23:09.360][c] the[/c] things might actually go so one of the things might actually go so one of the ways[00:23:09.720][c] to[/c][00:23:10.080][c] compensate[/c][00:23:10.640][c] for[/c][00:23:10.919][c] that[/c][00:23:11.200][c] you[/c][00:23:11.279][c] know[/c] ways to compensate for that you know ways to compensate for that you know sort[00:23:11.679][c] of[/c][00:23:11.840][c] recognize[/c][00:23:12.480][c] hey[/c][00:23:12.720][c] I[/c][00:23:12.880][c] don't[/c][00:23:13.080][c] know[/c][00:23:13.279][c] where[/c] sort of recognize hey I don't know where sort of recognize hey I don't know where the[00:23:13.520][c] Market's[/c][00:23:13.799][c] going[/c][00:23:13.919][c] to[/c][00:23:14.080][c] go[/c][00:23:14.679][c] how[/c][00:23:14.799][c] do[/c][00:23:15.000][c] I[/c] the Market's going to go how do I the Market's going to go how do I maximize[00:23:16.840][c] my[/c][00:23:17.440][c] my[/c][00:23:17.720][c] risk[/c][00:23:18.000][c] adjusted[/c][00:23:18.600][c] returns[/c][00:23:19.039][c] so[/c] maximize my my risk adjusted returns so maximize my my risk adjusted returns so there's[00:23:19.480][c] two[/c][00:23:19.720][c] things[/c][00:23:20.320][c] you[/c][00:23:20.440][c] can[/c][00:23:20.600][c] look[/c][00:23:20.760][c] at[/c] there's two things you can look at there's two things you can look at there's[00:23:21.120][c] the[/c][00:23:21.200][c] sharp[/c][00:23:21.559][c] ratio[/c][00:23:22.080][c] and[/c][00:23:22.200][c] the[/c][00:23:22.320][c] stino[/c] there's the sharp ratio and the stino there's the sharp ratio and the stino ratio[00:23:23.559][c] and[/c][00:23:23.720][c] essentially[/c][00:23:24.080][c] what[/c][00:23:24.200][c] it's[/c][00:23:24.400][c] doing[/c][00:23:25.080][c] is[/c] ratio and essentially what it's doing is ratio and essentially what it's doing is just[00:23:25.480][c] looking[/c][00:23:25.840][c] at[/c][00:23:26.120][c] historical[/c][00:23:27.000][c] returns[/c][00:23:28.000][c] uh[/c] just looking at historical returns uh just looking at historical returns uh and[00:23:28.559][c] and[/c][00:23:28.919][c] saying[/c][00:23:29.279][c] all[/c][00:23:29.440][c] right[/c][00:23:29.640][c] well[/c][00:23:29.760][c] if[/c][00:23:29.880][c] the[/c] and and saying all right well if the and and saying all right well if the market[00:23:30.279][c] continues[/c][00:23:30.679][c] to[/c][00:23:30.840][c] do[/c][00:23:31.080][c] what[/c][00:23:31.159][c] the[/c][00:23:31.240][c] market[/c] market continues to do what the market market continues to do what the market Sor[00:23:31.799][c] just[/c][00:23:31.919][c] to[/c][00:23:32.200][c] just[/c][00:23:32.320][c] to[/c][00:23:32.559][c] sorry[/c][00:23:32.799][c] to[/c][00:23:32.919][c] interject[/c] Sor just to just to sorry to interject Sor just to just to sorry to interject just[00:23:33.480][c] for[/c][00:23:33.600][c] the[/c][00:23:33.679][c] audience[/c][00:23:33.960][c] the[/c][00:23:34.080][c] sharp[/c][00:23:34.360][c] ratio[/c][00:23:34.720][c] is[/c] just for the audience the sharp ratio is just for the audience the sharp ratio is a[00:23:34.919][c] risk[/c][00:23:35.159][c] adjusted[/c][00:23:35.720][c] return[/c][00:23:36.200][c] so[/c][00:23:36.520][c] it's[/c][00:23:36.679][c] a[/c] a risk adjusted return so it's a a risk adjusted return so it's a significant[00:23:37.400][c] because[/c][00:23:37.640][c] are[/c][00:23:37.760][c] you[/c][00:23:38.279][c] you[/c][00:23:38.400][c] know[/c][00:23:38.559][c] the[/c] significant because are you you know the significant because are you you know the higher[00:23:39.039][c] the[/c][00:23:39.200][c] risk[/c][00:23:39.440][c] adjusted[/c][00:23:40.000][c] return[/c][00:23:40.960][c] um[/c][00:23:41.360][c] you[/c] higher the risk adjusted return um you higher the risk adjusted return um you know[00:23:42.640][c] the[/c][00:23:42.840][c] the[/c][00:23:42.960][c] the[/c][00:23:43.080][c] lower[/c][00:23:43.360][c] the[/c][00:23:43.480][c] risk[/c][00:23:43.679][c] per[/c][00:23:43.840][c] unit[/c] know the the the lower the risk per unit know the the the lower the risk per unit of[00:23:44.320][c] return[/c][00:23:44.600][c] so[/c][00:23:44.799][c] that[/c][00:23:44.919][c] that's[/c][00:23:45.120][c] what[/c][00:23:45.240][c] that's[/c] of return so that that's what that's of return so that that's what that's where[00:23:45.480][c] we're[/c][00:23:45.600][c] looking[/c][00:23:45.799][c] at[/c][00:23:46.000][c] here[/c][00:23:46.320][c] um[/c][00:23:46.559][c] anyway[/c] where we're looking at here um anyway where we're looking at here um anyway please[00:23:47.200][c] right[/c][00:23:47.640][c] yeah[/c][00:23:47.960][c] yeah[/c][00:23:48.080][c] so[/c][00:23:48.440][c] the[/c][00:23:48.559][c] higher[/c][00:23:48.799][c] the[/c] please right yeah yeah so the higher the please right yeah yeah so the higher the sharp[00:23:49.200][c] ratio[/c][00:23:49.559][c] the[/c][00:23:49.720][c] better[/c][00:23:50.400][c] uh[/c][00:23:50.520][c] Bitcoin[/c] sharp ratio the better uh Bitcoin sharp ratio the better uh Bitcoin historically[00:23:51.400][c] has[/c][00:23:51.559][c] had[/c][00:23:51.679][c] a[/c][00:23:51.799][c] pretty[/c][00:23:52.000][c] high[/c][00:23:52.159][c] sharp[/c] historically has had a pretty high sharp historically has had a pretty high sharp ratio[00:23:53.000][c] especially[/c][00:23:53.600][c] you[/c][00:23:53.679][c] know[/c][00:23:53.840][c] compared[/c][00:23:54.159][c] to[/c] ratio especially you know compared to ratio especially you know compared to equities[00:23:55.400][c] um[/c][00:23:55.960][c] but[/c][00:23:56.320][c] you[/c][00:23:56.440][c] know[/c][00:23:56.760][c] the[/c][00:23:57.000][c] the[/c][00:23:57.200][c] the[/c][00:23:57.520][c] the[/c] equities um but you know the the the the equities um but you know the the the the point[00:23:58.039][c] the[/c][00:23:58.159][c] point[/c][00:23:58.320][c] of[/c][00:23:58.520][c] about[/c][00:23:58.679][c] it[/c][00:23:58.840][c] is[/c][00:23:58.960][c] to[/c][00:23:59.200][c] say[/c] point the point of about it is to say point the point of about it is to say look[00:23:59.760][c] I[/c][00:23:59.840][c] don't[/c][00:24:00.000][c] know[/c][00:24:00.120][c] where[/c][00:24:00.279][c] the[/c][00:24:00.360][c] Market's[/c] look I don't know where the Market's look I don't know where the Market's going[00:24:00.760][c] to[/c][00:24:00.960][c] go[/c][00:24:01.640][c] how[/c][00:24:01.760][c] do[/c][00:24:01.919][c] I[/c][00:24:02.080][c] get[/c][00:24:02.600][c] exposure[/c][00:24:03.600][c] to[/c][00:24:03.799][c] the[/c] going to go how do I get exposure to the going to go how do I get exposure to the asset[00:24:04.360][c] class[/c][00:24:04.640][c] like[/c][00:24:04.799][c] what[/c][00:24:04.880][c] is[/c][00:24:05.000][c] the[/c][00:24:05.200][c] proper[/c][00:24:05.440][c] way[/c] asset class like what is the proper way asset class like what is the proper way to[00:24:05.799][c] do[/c][00:24:06.000][c] so[/c][00:24:06.640][c] to[/c][00:24:06.880][c] give[/c][00:24:07.039][c] me[/c][00:24:07.279][c] exposure[/c][00:24:07.679][c] to[/c][00:24:07.840][c] the[/c] to do so to give me exposure to the to do so to give me exposure to the upside[00:24:08.400][c] but[/c][00:24:08.640][c] also[/c][00:24:08.880][c] minimize[/c][00:24:09.320][c] my[/c][00:24:09.440][c] downside[/c] upside but also minimize my downside upside but also minimize my downside risk[00:24:10.080][c] right[/c][00:24:10.200][c] as[/c][00:24:10.320][c] investors[/c][00:24:10.799][c] we[/c][00:24:10.919][c] know[/c][00:24:11.880][c] there's[/c] risk right as investors we know there's risk right as investors we know there's a[00:24:12.279][c] risk[/c][00:24:12.559][c] you[/c][00:24:12.760][c] take[/c][00:24:13.120][c] if[/c][00:24:13.200][c] you[/c][00:24:13.320][c] buy[/c][00:24:13.600][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:24:14.039][c] or[/c][00:24:14.200][c] if[/c] a risk you take if you buy Bitcoin or if a risk you take if you buy Bitcoin or if you[00:24:14.440][c] buy[/c][00:24:14.640][c] ethereum[/c][00:24:15.240][c] or[/c][00:24:15.440][c] whatever[/c][00:24:15.919][c] or[/c][00:24:16.080][c] if[/c][00:24:16.159][c] you[/c] you buy ethereum or whatever or if you you buy ethereum or whatever or if you buy[00:24:16.440][c] alts[/c][00:24:17.279][c] there's[/c][00:24:17.400][c] a[/c][00:24:17.520][c] risk[/c][00:24:17.799][c] associated[/c][00:24:18.279][c] with[/c] buy alts there's a risk associated with buy alts there's a risk associated with it[00:24:18.720][c] so[/c][00:24:18.919][c] the[/c][00:24:19.039][c] sharp[/c][00:24:19.600][c] ratio[/c][00:24:20.600][c] basically[/c][00:24:21.000][c] is[/c] it so the sharp ratio basically is it so the sharp ratio basically is saying[00:24:21.600][c] all[/c][00:24:21.760][c] right[/c][00:24:21.880][c] we're[/c][00:24:22.000][c] going[/c][00:24:22.080][c] to[/c][00:24:22.240][c] plot[/c][00:24:22.520][c] out[/c] saying all right we're going to plot out saying all right we're going to plot out the[00:24:22.919][c] expected[/c][00:24:23.480][c] return[/c][00:24:24.080][c] versus[/c][00:24:24.640][c] volatility[/c] the expected return versus volatility the expected return versus volatility and[00:24:25.840][c] and[/c][00:24:26.000][c] that[/c][00:24:26.120][c] way[/c][00:24:26.279][c] we[/c][00:24:26.399][c] can[/c][00:24:26.559][c] actually[/c][00:24:26.760][c] figure[/c] and and that way we can actually figure and and that way we can actually figure out[00:24:27.039][c] what[/c][00:24:27.120][c] the[/c][00:24:27.200][c] sharp[/c][00:24:27.520][c] isue[/c][00:24:27.760][c] is[/c][00:24:27.840][c] so[/c][00:24:27.960][c] this[/c][00:24:28.000][c] is[/c][00:24:28.080][c] a[/c] out what the sharp isue is so this is a out what the sharp isue is so this is a Carlos[00:24:29.159][c] simulation[/c][00:24:30.159][c] um[/c][00:24:30.520][c] this[/c][00:24:30.640][c] is[/c][00:24:30.880][c] 50,000[/c] Carlos simulation um this is 50,000 Carlos simulation um this is 50,000 portfolio[00:24:32.000][c] simulations[/c][00:24:32.960][c] showing[/c][00:24:33.360][c] you[/c][00:24:34.320][c] what[/c] portfolio simulations showing you what portfolio simulations showing you what your[00:24:34.640][c] sharp[/c][00:24:35.039][c] ratio[/c][00:24:35.720][c] would[/c][00:24:35.880][c] have[/c][00:24:36.080][c] been[/c][00:24:36.520][c] had[/c][00:24:36.640][c] you[/c] your sharp ratio would have been had you your sharp ratio would have been had you had[00:24:37.320][c] various[/c][00:24:37.960][c] amounts[/c][00:24:38.440][c] of[/c][00:24:38.720][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:24:39.399][c] eth[/c][00:24:39.840][c] and[/c] had various amounts of Bitcoin eth and had various amounts of Bitcoin eth and USD[00:24:40.919][c] right[/c][00:24:41.080][c] that's[/c][00:24:41.240][c] what[/c][00:24:41.360][c] it[/c][00:24:41.440][c] would[/c][00:24:41.640][c] be[/c][00:24:42.279][c] going[/c] USD right that's what it would be going USD right that's what it would be going forward[00:24:43.000][c] based[/c][00:24:43.320][c] on[/c][00:24:43.559][c] historical[/c][00:24:44.120][c] returns[/c][00:24:44.480][c] and[/c] forward based on historical returns and forward based on historical returns and based[00:24:44.840][c] on[/c][00:24:45.000][c] historical[/c][00:24:45.440][c] volatility[/c][00:24:46.120][c] so[/c] based on historical volatility so based on historical volatility so essentially[00:24:46.760][c] the[/c][00:24:46.919][c] ideal[/c][00:24:47.320][c] scenario[/c][00:24:48.200][c] is[/c][00:24:48.360][c] to[/c][00:24:48.720][c] Pi[/c] essentially the ideal scenario is to Pi essentially the ideal scenario is to Pi is[00:24:49.000][c] to[/c][00:24:49.159][c] pick[/c][00:24:49.320][c] a[/c][00:24:49.799][c] portfolio[/c][00:24:50.799][c] over[/c][00:24:51.200][c] here[/c][00:24:51.919][c] which[/c] is to pick a portfolio over here which is to pick a portfolio over here which is[00:24:52.159][c] known[/c][00:24:52.480][c] as[/c][00:24:52.679][c] the[/c][00:24:52.880][c] efficient[/c][00:24:53.320][c] Frontier[/c][00:24:54.240][c] right[/c] is known as the efficient Frontier right is known as the efficient Frontier right so[00:24:54.480][c] you[/c][00:24:54.559][c] want[/c][00:24:54.679][c] to[/c][00:24:54.840][c] be[/c][00:24:54.960][c] on[/c][00:24:55.279][c] this[/c][00:24:55.480][c] side[/c][00:24:55.640][c] of[/c][00:24:55.760][c] the[/c] so you want to be on this side of the so you want to be on this side of the curve[00:24:56.840][c] not[/c][00:24:57.080][c] the[/c][00:24:57.240][c] underside[/c][00:24:57.880][c] the[/c][00:24:58.000][c] under[/c][00:24:58.600][c] side[/c] curve not the underside the under side curve not the underside the under side is[00:24:59.320][c] basically[/c][00:24:59.720][c] saying[/c][00:25:00.039][c] you're[/c][00:25:00.279][c] taking[/c][00:25:00.559][c] on[/c] is basically saying you're taking on is basically saying you're taking on more[00:25:01.279][c] risk[/c][00:25:01.720][c] and[/c][00:25:01.840][c] you're[/c][00:25:02.080][c] getting[/c][00:25:02.520][c] less[/c][00:25:03.000][c] return[/c] more risk and you're getting less return more risk and you're getting less return that's[00:25:03.799][c] what[/c][00:25:04.000][c] people[/c][00:25:04.279][c] want[/c][00:25:04.480][c] to[/c][00:25:04.760][c] generally[/c] that's what people want to generally that's what people want to generally avoid[00:25:05.799][c] so[/c][00:25:06.120][c] in[/c][00:25:06.440][c] this[/c][00:25:06.640][c] situation[/c][00:25:07.520][c] we[/c][00:25:07.679][c] also[/c][00:25:07.880][c] want[/c] avoid so in this situation we also want avoid so in this situation we also want to[00:25:08.159][c] look[/c][00:25:08.320][c] at[/c][00:25:08.520][c] the[/c][00:25:08.640][c] sortino[/c][00:25:09.440][c] ratio[/c][00:25:10.159][c] the[/c][00:25:10.360][c] reason[/c] to look at the sortino ratio the reason to look at the sortino ratio the reason I[00:25:10.760][c] pull[/c][00:25:10.960][c] up[/c][00:25:11.120][c] the[/c][00:25:11.200][c] sortino[/c][00:25:11.799][c] ratio[/c][00:25:12.559][c] over[/c][00:25:12.799][c] the[/c] I pull up the sortino ratio over the I pull up the sortino ratio over the sharp[00:25:13.279][c] ratio[/c][00:25:13.679][c] I[/c][00:25:13.760][c] think[/c][00:25:13.880][c] the[/c][00:25:13.960][c] sortino[/c][00:25:14.399][c] ratio[/c][00:25:14.720][c] is[/c] sharp ratio I think the sortino ratio is sharp ratio I think the sortino ratio is actually[00:25:15.320][c] better[/c][00:25:16.320][c] is[/c][00:25:16.520][c] because[/c][00:25:17.200][c] the[/c][00:25:17.360][c] sortino[/c] actually better is because the sortino actually better is because the sortino ratio[00:25:18.919][c] does[/c][00:25:19.279][c] not[/c][00:25:19.960][c] punish[/c][00:25:20.960][c] positive[/c] ratio does not punish positive ratio does not punish positive volatility[00:25:22.360][c] whereas[/c][00:25:22.600][c] a[/c][00:25:22.720][c] sharp[/c][00:25:23.080][c] ratio[/c][00:25:23.640][c] does[/c] volatility whereas a sharp ratio does volatility whereas a sharp ratio does but[00:25:24.279][c] as[/c][00:25:24.440][c] crypto[/c][00:25:24.799][c] investors[/c][00:25:25.320][c] we[/c][00:25:25.440][c] want[/c][00:25:26.320][c] the[/c] but as crypto investors we want the but as crypto investors we want the price[00:25:26.720][c] to[/c][00:25:26.880][c] go[/c][00:25:27.039][c] out[/c][00:25:27.360][c] right[/c][00:25:27.480][c] we[/c][00:25:27.559][c] don't[/c][00:25:27.679][c] want[/c][00:25:27.760][c] to[/c] price to go out right we don't want to price to go out right we don't want to punish[00:25:28.640][c] that[/c][00:25:29.080][c] so[/c][00:25:29.279][c] I[/c][00:25:29.360][c] think[/c][00:25:29.480][c] it[/c][00:25:29.559][c] makes[/c][00:25:29.720][c] a[/c][00:25:29.799][c] lot[/c] punish that so I think it makes a lot punish that so I think it makes a lot more[00:25:30.000][c] sense[/c][00:25:30.159][c] to[/c][00:25:30.240][c] look[/c][00:25:30.320][c] at[/c][00:25:30.399][c] the[/c][00:25:30.480][c] stino[/c][00:25:30.880][c] ratio[/c] more sense to look at the stino ratio more sense to look at the stino ratio and[00:25:31.720][c] in[/c][00:25:31.919][c] this[/c][00:25:32.159][c] case[/c][00:25:32.960][c] going[/c][00:25:33.279][c] back[/c][00:25:33.559][c] you[/c][00:25:33.640][c] know[/c][00:25:33.799][c] for[/c] and in this case going back you know for and in this case going back you know for the[00:25:34.080][c] last[/c][00:25:34.279][c] several[/c][00:25:34.640][c] years[/c][00:25:35.320][c] the[/c][00:25:35.520][c] portfolio[/c] the last several years the portfolio the last several years the portfolio that[00:25:36.360][c] maximizes[/c][00:25:37.120][c] your[/c][00:25:37.320][c] sortino[/c][00:25:37.919][c] ratio[/c][00:25:38.520][c] right[/c] that maximizes your sortino ratio right that maximizes your sortino ratio right now[00:25:39.320][c] is[/c][00:25:39.559][c] 66%[/c][00:25:40.480][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:25:41.039][c] 177%[/c][00:25:41.880][c] eth[/c][00:25:42.360][c] and[/c][00:25:42.640][c] 177%[/c][00:25:43.640][c] US[/c] now is 66% Bitcoin 177% eth and 177% US now is 66% Bitcoin 177% eth and 177% US dollar[00:25:44.600][c] now[/c][00:25:44.919][c] where[/c][00:25:45.159][c] this[/c][00:25:45.320][c] gets[/c][00:25:45.559][c] interesting[/c] dollar now where this gets interesting dollar now where this gets interesting is[00:25:46.480][c] if[/c][00:25:46.600][c] you[/c][00:25:46.679][c] just[/c][00:25:46.799][c] throw[/c][00:25:47.039][c] in[/c][00:25:47.159][c] a[/c][00:25:47.279][c] random[/c][00:25:47.559][c] altcoin[/c] is if you just throw in a random altcoin is if you just throw in a random altcoin right[00:25:48.520][c] and[/c][00:25:48.600][c] you[/c][00:25:48.760][c] recalculate[/c][00:25:49.559][c] this[/c][00:25:50.320][c] and[/c][00:25:50.520][c] and[/c] right and you recalculate this and and right and you recalculate this and and this[00:25:50.840][c] is[/c][00:25:51.159][c] why[/c][00:25:51.760][c] this[/c][00:25:51.840][c] is[/c][00:25:52.080][c] why[/c][00:25:52.720][c] going[/c][00:25:52.960][c] back[/c][00:25:53.080][c] to[/c] this is why this is why going back to this is why this is why going back to bitcoin[00:25:53.600][c] dominance[/c][00:25:54.000][c] right[/c][00:25:54.159][c] this[/c][00:25:54.240][c] is[/c][00:25:54.480][c] why[/c][00:25:54.679][c] that[/c] bitcoin dominance right this is why that bitcoin dominance right this is why that stuff[00:25:55.039][c] is[/c][00:25:55.240][c] important[/c][00:25:56.039][c] is[/c][00:25:56.240][c] because[/c][00:25:57.039][c] the[/c] stuff is important is because the stuff is important is because the portfolio[00:25:57.760][c] that[/c][00:25:57.880][c] Maxim[/c][00:25:58.640][c] your[/c][00:25:58.799][c] sortino[/c][00:25:59.360][c] ratio[/c] portfolio that Maxim your sortino ratio portfolio that Maxim your sortino ratio with with with Bitcoin[00:26:02.279][c] Zer[/c][00:26:03.080][c] it's[/c][00:26:03.279][c] zero[/c][00:26:03.640][c] but[/c][00:26:03.799][c] but[/c][00:26:04.000][c] again[/c] Bitcoin Zer it's zero but but again Bitcoin Zer it's zero but but again there's[00:26:04.559][c] a[/c][00:26:04.840][c] reason[/c][00:26:05.240][c] for[/c][00:26:05.399][c] it[/c][00:26:05.600][c] right[/c][00:26:05.799][c] it's[/c][00:26:06.039][c] not[/c] there's a reason for it right it's not there's a reason for it right it's not it's[00:26:07.120][c] not[/c][00:26:07.320][c] that[/c][00:26:07.480][c] Litecoin[/c][00:26:07.919][c] doesn't[/c][00:26:08.200][c] go[/c][00:26:08.320][c] up[/c] it's not that Litecoin doesn't go up it's not that Litecoin doesn't go up right[00:26:08.760][c] and[/c][00:26:08.919][c] again[/c][00:26:09.159][c] like[/c][00:26:09.279][c] you[/c][00:26:09.360][c] know[/c][00:26:09.559][c] I'm[/c][00:26:09.679][c] not[/c] right and again like you know I'm not right and again like you know I'm not I'm[00:26:10.039][c] not[/c][00:26:10.440][c] I'm[/c][00:26:10.520][c] not[/c][00:26:10.679][c] just[/c][00:26:10.799][c] picking[/c][00:26:11.039][c] on[/c][00:26:11.240][c] Litecoin[/c] I'm not I'm not just picking on Litecoin I'm not I'm not just picking on Litecoin this[00:26:11.880][c] is[/c][00:26:12.000][c] the[/c][00:26:12.080][c] true[/c][00:26:12.320][c] for[/c][00:26:12.480][c] a[/c][00:26:12.520][c] lot[/c][00:26:12.640][c] of[/c][00:26:12.760][c] different[/c] this is the true for a lot of different this is the true for a lot of different cryptocurrencies[00:26:14.080][c] but[/c][00:26:15.000][c] salana[/c][00:26:15.840][c] just[/c][00:26:16.039][c] I'm[/c] cryptocurrencies but salana just I'm cryptocurrencies but salana just I'm curious[00:26:16.600][c] how[/c][00:26:16.760][c] salana[/c][00:26:17.520][c] compares[/c][00:26:17.880][c] to[/c][00:26:18.159][c] eth[/c][00:26:19.159][c] uh[/c][00:26:19.320][c] I[/c] curious how salana compares to eth uh I curious how salana compares to eth uh I don't[00:26:19.640][c] know[/c][00:26:19.840][c] if[/c][00:26:20.000][c] we[/c][00:26:20.279][c] have[/c][00:26:20.880][c] salana[/c][00:26:21.799][c] okay[/c][00:26:21.919][c] on[/c] don't know if we have salana okay on don't know if we have salana okay on there[00:26:22.200][c] all[/c][00:26:22.279][c] right[/c][00:26:22.520][c] we[/c][00:26:22.600][c] can[/c][00:26:22.720][c] pick[/c][00:26:22.880][c] another[/c][00:26:23.080][c] one[/c] there all right we can pick another one there all right we can pick another one you[00:26:23.399][c] have[/c][00:26:23.559][c] to[/c][00:26:24.159][c] you[/c][00:26:24.360][c] have[/c][00:26:24.480][c] to[/c][00:26:24.799][c] have[/c][00:26:25.640][c] a[/c][00:26:25.799][c] couple[/c] you have to you have to have a couple you have to you have to have a couple Cycles[00:26:26.480][c] worth[/c][00:26:26.679][c] of[/c][00:26:26.880][c] data[/c][00:26:27.320][c] for[/c][00:26:27.520][c] it[/c][00:26:27.640][c] to[/c][00:26:27.880][c] even[/c] Cycles worth of data for it to even Cycles worth of data for it to even sense[00:26:28.840][c] right[/c][00:26:28.960][c] and[/c][00:26:29.120][c] salana[/c][00:26:29.520][c] hasn't[/c][00:26:29.720][c] really[/c] sense right and salana hasn't really sense right and salana hasn't really been[00:26:30.039][c] around[/c][00:26:30.320][c] that[/c][00:26:30.480][c] long[/c][00:26:30.679][c] so[/c][00:26:30.840][c] I[/c][00:26:30.919][c] only[/c][00:26:31.240][c] have[/c][00:26:31.399][c] old[/c] been around that long so I only have old been around that long so I only have old cryptocurrencies[00:26:32.520][c] on[/c][00:26:32.679][c] there[/c][00:26:33.080][c] but[/c][00:26:33.320][c] the[/c][00:26:33.480][c] the[/c] cryptocurrencies on there but the the cryptocurrencies on there but the the reason[00:26:34.080][c] why[/c][00:26:34.960][c] I[/c][00:26:35.279][c] I[/c][00:26:35.679][c] I[/c][00:26:35.799][c] talk[/c][00:26:36.000][c] about[/c][00:26:36.320][c] that[/c][00:26:36.559][c] like[/c] reason why I I I talk about that like reason why I I I talk about that like look[00:26:36.799][c] at[/c][00:26:36.960][c] Litecoin[/c][00:26:37.760][c] the[/c][00:26:37.840][c] Litecoin[/c][00:26:38.240][c] Bitcoin[/c] look at Litecoin the Litecoin Bitcoin look at Litecoin the Litecoin Bitcoin valuation[00:26:39.080][c] right[/c][00:26:39.240][c] like[/c][00:26:39.360][c] it[/c][00:26:39.440][c] just[/c][00:26:39.600][c] keeps[/c][00:26:39.840][c] going[/c] valuation right like it just keeps going valuation right like it just keeps going down[00:26:40.720][c] so[/c][00:26:41.159][c] when[/c][00:26:41.279][c] I[/c][00:26:41.480][c] when[/c][00:26:41.559][c] I[/c][00:26:41.720][c] talk[/c][00:26:41.960][c] about[/c][00:26:42.360][c] you[/c] down so when I when I talk about you down so when I when I talk about you know[00:26:42.760][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:26:43.240][c] dominance[/c][00:26:44.080][c] and[/c][00:26:44.640][c] and[/c][00:26:45.039][c] um[/c][00:26:45.480][c] you[/c] know Bitcoin dominance and and um you know Bitcoin dominance and and um you know[00:26:45.960][c] and[/c][00:26:46.360][c] uh[/c][00:26:46.720][c] the[/c][00:26:47.039][c] the[/c][00:26:47.159][c] modern[/c][00:26:47.440][c] portfolio[/c] know and uh the the modern portfolio know and uh the the modern portfolio Theory[00:26:48.159][c] stuff[/c][00:26:48.440][c] it's[/c][00:26:48.640][c] not[/c][00:26:48.799][c] that[/c][00:26:48.960][c] the[/c][00:26:49.039][c] altcoins[/c] Theory stuff it's not that the altcoins Theory stuff it's not that the altcoins can't[00:26:49.720][c] go[/c][00:26:49.919][c] up[/c][00:26:50.520][c] it's[/c][00:26:50.679][c] just[/c][00:26:50.880][c] that[/c][00:26:51.000][c] for[/c][00:26:51.279][c] every[/c] can't go up it's just that for every can't go up it's just that for every dollar[00:26:52.200][c] you[/c][00:26:52.520][c] put[/c][00:26:53.360][c] in[/c][00:26:53.760][c] Litecoin[/c][00:26:54.600][c] that's[/c][00:26:54.720][c] a[/c] dollar you put in Litecoin that's a dollar you put in Litecoin that's a dollar[00:26:55.240][c] not[/c][00:26:55.480][c] going[/c][00:26:55.679][c] into[/c][00:26:55.919][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:26:56.480][c] or[/c][00:26:56.640][c] that's[/c] dollar not going into Bitcoin or that's dollar not going into Bitcoin or that's a[00:26:56.960][c] dollar[/c][00:26:57.399][c] not[/c][00:26:57.640][c] going[/c][00:26:57.880][c] into[/c][00:26:58.480][c] ethereum[/c][00:26:59.480][c] and[/c][00:26:59.640][c] so[/c] a dollar not going into ethereum and so a dollar not going into ethereum and so that[00:27:00.279][c] I[/c][00:27:00.399][c] think[/c][00:27:00.679][c] is[/c][00:27:00.880][c] the[/c][00:27:01.120][c] the[/c][00:27:01.679][c] the[/c][00:27:01.799][c] thing[/c][00:27:01.919][c] to[/c] that I think is the the the thing to that I think is the the the thing to realize[00:27:02.480][c] that's[/c][00:27:02.679][c] why[/c][00:27:02.840][c] it's[/c][00:27:03.000][c] important[/c][00:27:03.279][c] so[/c] realize that's why it's important so realize that's why it's important so yeah[00:27:03.559][c] I[/c][00:27:03.640][c] don't[/c][00:27:03.840][c] have[/c][00:27:04.039][c] that[/c][00:27:04.159][c] one[/c][00:27:04.679][c] we[/c][00:27:04.880][c] just[/c][00:27:05.120][c] have[/c] yeah I don't have that one we just have yeah I don't have that one we just have uh[00:27:05.960][c] xrp[/c][00:27:06.640][c] Monero[/c][00:27:07.159][c] Doge[/c][00:27:07.679][c] xlm[/c][00:27:08.480][c] and[/c][00:27:08.679][c] and[/c][00:27:08.880][c] US[/c] uh xrp Monero Doge xlm and and US uh xrp Monero Doge xlm and and US Dollars[00:27:09.960][c] um[/c][00:27:10.120][c] so[/c][00:27:10.240][c] that's[/c][00:27:10.360][c] all[/c][00:27:10.480][c] we[/c][00:27:10.600][c] have[/c][00:27:10.720][c] on[/c][00:27:10.880][c] here[/c] Dollars um so that's all we have on here Dollars um so that's all we have on here right[00:27:11.240][c] now[/c][00:27:11.360][c] and[/c][00:27:11.440][c] the[/c][00:27:11.520][c] reason[/c][00:27:11.799][c] is[/c][00:27:12.000][c] is[/c][00:27:12.240][c] because[/c] right now and the reason is is because right now and the reason is is because you[00:27:13.000][c] need[/c][00:27:13.799][c] you[/c][00:27:13.960][c] need[/c][00:27:14.440][c] two[/c][00:27:14.760][c] cycles[/c][00:27:15.200][c] worth[/c][00:27:15.440][c] of[/c] you need you need two cycles worth of you need you need two cycles worth of data[00:27:16.279][c] and[/c][00:27:16.399][c] the[/c][00:27:16.559][c] reason[/c][00:27:16.840][c] for[/c][00:27:17.039][c] that[/c][00:27:17.200][c] is[/c][00:27:17.480][c] because[/c] data and the reason for that is because data and the reason for that is because you[00:27:18.320][c] can[/c][00:27:18.520][c] only[/c][00:27:18.760][c] go[/c][00:27:19.000][c] back[/c][00:27:19.240][c] as[/c][00:27:19.440][c] far[/c][00:27:19.799][c] as[/c][00:27:19.960][c] the[/c] you can only go back as far as the you can only go back as far as the youngest[00:27:20.600][c] asset[/c][00:27:21.120][c] so[/c][00:27:21.360][c] for[/c][00:27:21.559][c] instance[/c][00:27:21.880][c] if[/c][00:27:21.960][c] we[/c] youngest asset so for instance if we youngest asset so for instance if we were[00:27:22.240][c] to[/c][00:27:22.360][c] throw[/c][00:27:22.520][c] in[/c][00:27:22.799][c] salana[/c][00:27:23.799][c] the[/c][00:27:24.000][c] portfolio[/c] were to throw in salana the portfolio were to throw in salana the portfolio would[00:27:24.880][c] basically[/c][00:27:25.159][c] just[/c][00:27:25.279][c] say[/c][00:27:25.640][c] 100%[/c][00:27:26.080][c] salana[/c] would basically just say 100% salana would basically just say 100% salana more[00:27:27.039][c] than[/c][00:27:27.240][c] likely[/c][00:27:27.600][c] because[/c][00:27:28.159][c] salana[/c][00:27:28.559][c] hasn't[/c] more than likely because salana hasn't more than likely because salana hasn't been[00:27:28.960][c] around[/c][00:27:29.200][c] long[/c][00:27:29.360][c] enough[/c][00:27:29.600][c] and[/c][00:27:29.720][c] it'll[/c][00:27:30.080][c] only[/c] been around long enough and it'll only been around long enough and it'll only show[00:27:30.799][c] bitcoin's[/c][00:27:31.399][c] price[/c][00:27:31.720][c] history[/c][00:27:32.159][c] up[/c][00:27:32.320][c] until[/c] show bitcoin's price history up until show bitcoin's price history up until when[00:27:32.840][c] salana[/c][00:27:33.360][c] was[/c][00:27:33.559][c] created[/c][00:27:34.120][c] so[/c][00:27:34.279][c] it'll[/c] when salana was created so it'll when salana was created so it'll essentially[00:27:34.919][c] ignore[/c][00:27:35.520][c] all[/c][00:27:35.640][c] of[/c][00:27:35.720][c] the[/c][00:27:35.840][c] gains[/c][00:27:36.159][c] that[/c] essentially ignore all of the gains that essentially ignore all of the gains that Bitcoin[00:27:36.640][c] had[/c][00:27:37.279][c] previously[/c][00:27:38.279][c] um[/c][00:27:39.039][c] and[/c][00:27:39.200][c] only[/c][00:27:39.480][c] look[/c] Bitcoin had previously um and only look Bitcoin had previously um and only look at[00:27:39.799][c] it[/c][00:27:40.039][c] over[/c][00:27:40.240][c] the[/c][00:27:40.480][c] last[/c][00:27:40.840][c] over[/c][00:27:41.000][c] the[/c][00:27:41.159][c] last[/c][00:27:41.600][c] uh[/c][00:27:41.679][c] you[/c] at it over the last over the last uh you at it over the last over the last uh you know[00:27:42.039][c] however[/c][00:27:42.200][c] long[/c][00:27:42.399][c] salana[/c][00:27:42.760][c] has[/c][00:27:42.840][c] been[/c][00:27:42.960][c] around[/c] know however long salana has been around know however long salana has been around that's[00:27:43.519][c] why[/c][00:27:43.640][c] you[/c][00:27:43.799][c] typically[/c][00:27:44.159][c] need[/c][00:27:44.440][c] couple[/c][00:27:44.679][c] of[/c] that's why you typically need couple of that's why you typically need couple of cycles[00:27:45.279][c] that[/c][00:27:45.399][c] way[/c][00:27:45.640][c] all[/c][00:27:45.840][c] the[/c][00:27:46.039][c] you[/c][00:27:46.159][c] know[/c][00:27:46.480][c] the[/c][00:27:46.679][c] the[/c] cycles that way all the you know the the cycles that way all the you know the the altcoin[00:27:47.200][c] in[/c][00:27:47.399][c] question[/c][00:27:48.120][c] has[/c][00:27:48.279][c] gone[/c][00:27:48.519][c] through[/c][00:27:48.960][c] a[/c] altcoin in question has gone through a altcoin in question has gone through a couple[00:27:49.240][c] of[/c][00:27:49.360][c] bare[/c][00:27:49.559][c] markets[/c][00:27:49.880][c] and[/c][00:27:50.000][c] so[/c][00:27:50.120][c] we[/c] couple of bare markets and so we couple of bare markets and so we actually[00:27:50.519][c] know[/c][00:27:50.840][c] how[/c][00:27:51.000][c] it[/c][00:27:51.480][c] behaves[/c][00:27:52.480][c] okay[/c][00:27:52.880][c] so[/c] actually know how it behaves okay so actually know how it behaves okay so basically[00:27:53.480][c] to[/c][00:27:53.640][c] use[/c][00:27:53.880][c] this[/c][00:27:54.039][c] tool[/c][00:27:54.279][c] you[/c][00:27:54.399][c] want[/c][00:27:54.519][c] to[/c] basically to use this tool you want to basically to use this tool you want to be[00:27:54.840][c] picking[/c][00:27:55.200][c] an[/c][00:27:55.440][c] allocation[/c][00:27:56.000][c] that[/c][00:27:56.200][c] maximizes[/c] be picking an allocation that maximizes be picking an allocation that maximizes e[00:27:57.440][c] either[/c][00:27:57.640][c] the[/c][00:27:57.760][c] sort[/c][00:27:58.279][c] no[/c][00:27:58.480][c] ratio[/c][00:27:58.840][c] which[/c][00:27:58.960][c] is[/c][00:27:59.080][c] the[/c] e either the sort no ratio which is the e either the sort no ratio which is the first[00:27:59.519][c] line[/c][00:28:00.159][c] or[/c][00:28:00.360][c] the[/c][00:28:00.519][c] sharp[/c][00:28:00.880][c] ratio[/c][00:28:01.240][c] which[/c][00:28:01.360][c] is[/c] first line or the sharp ratio which is first line or the sharp ratio which is the[00:28:01.640][c] second[/c][00:28:01.960][c] line[/c][00:28:02.760][c] so[/c][00:28:02.919][c] in[/c][00:28:03.039][c] this[/c][00:28:03.240][c] particular[/c] the second line so in this particular the second line so in this particular case[00:28:03.760][c] you're[/c][00:28:03.919][c] looking[/c][00:28:04.120][c] at[/c][00:28:04.919][c] 76%[/c][00:28:05.919][c] BTC[/c][00:28:06.399][c] for[/c] case you're looking at 76% BTC for case you're looking at 76% BTC for maximizing[00:28:07.159][c] sharp[/c][00:28:07.720][c] and[/c][00:28:07.840][c] if[/c][00:28:07.919][c] you[/c][00:28:08.039][c] plug[/c][00:28:08.240][c] in[/c][00:28:08.399][c] USD[/c] maximizing sharp and if you plug in USD maximizing sharp and if you plug in USD I[00:28:09.240][c] think[/c][00:28:09.399][c] it's[/c][00:28:09.840][c] a[/c][00:28:09.919][c] little[/c][00:28:10.039][c] bit[/c][00:28:10.200][c] lower[/c][00:28:10.960][c] what[/c][00:28:11.080][c] is[/c] I think it's a little bit lower what is I think it's a little bit lower what is the[00:28:12.000][c] just[/c][00:28:13.000][c] you[/c][00:28:13.120][c] know[/c][00:28:13.279][c] math[/c][00:28:13.640][c] de[/c][00:28:13.880][c] side[/c][00:28:14.200][c] what[/c][00:28:14.360][c] is[/c] the just you know math de side what is the just you know math de side what is the[00:28:14.760][c] logic[/c][00:28:15.120][c] in[/c][00:28:15.320][c] holding[/c][00:28:16.159][c] like[/c][00:28:16.399][c] what[/c][00:28:16.519][c] was[/c][00:28:16.640][c] it[/c] the logic in holding like what was it the logic in holding like what was it like[00:28:16.880][c] 177%[/c][00:28:17.679][c] USD[/c][00:28:18.320][c] cash[/c][00:28:18.840][c] in[/c][00:28:18.960][c] a[/c][00:28:19.120][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:28:19.480][c] eth[/c] like 177% USD cash in a Bitcoin eth like 177% USD cash in a Bitcoin eth portfolio[00:28:20.720][c] yeah[/c][00:28:20.840][c] I[/c][00:28:20.880][c] mean[/c][00:28:21.000][c] the[/c][00:28:21.120][c] logic[/c][00:28:21.519][c] is[/c][00:28:21.799][c] that[/c] portfolio yeah I mean the logic is that portfolio yeah I mean the logic is that when[00:28:22.600][c] when[/c][00:28:22.799][c] stuff[/c][00:28:23.120][c] happens[/c][00:28:23.519][c] like[/c][00:28:23.679][c] what[/c] when when stuff happens like what when when stuff happens like what happened[00:28:24.039][c] two[/c][00:28:24.200][c] weeks[/c][00:28:24.440][c] ago[/c][00:28:25.000][c] right[/c][00:28:25.240][c] I[/c][00:28:25.279][c] mean[/c][00:28:25.919][c] you[/c] happened two weeks ago right I mean you happened two weeks ago right I mean you know[00:28:26.880][c] if[/c][00:28:27.120][c] if[/c][00:28:27.279][c] you[/c][00:28:27.519][c] if[/c][00:28:27.640][c] you[/c][00:28:27.799][c] have[/c][00:28:28.120][c] if[/c][00:28:28.200][c] you've[/c][00:28:28.360][c] had[/c] know if if you if you have if you've had know if if you if you have if you've had no[00:28:28.799][c] cash[/c][00:28:29.279][c] at[/c][00:28:29.440][c] all[/c][00:28:30.000][c] since[/c][00:28:30.279][c] March[/c][00:28:30.919][c] you[/c][00:28:31.039][c] know[/c] no cash at all since March you know no cash at all since March you know you're[00:28:31.320][c] buying[/c][00:28:31.559][c] the[/c][00:28:31.760][c] dips[/c][00:28:32.080][c] and[/c][00:28:32.200][c] you're[/c][00:28:32.320][c] just[/c] you're buying the dips and you're just you're buying the dips and you're just you're[00:28:32.720][c] basically[/c][00:28:33.080][c] just[/c][00:28:33.320][c] praying[/c][00:28:33.679][c] and[/c][00:28:33.919][c] hoping[/c] you're basically just praying and hoping you're basically just praying and hoping that[00:28:34.600][c] the[/c][00:28:34.720][c] market[/c][00:28:35.039][c] puts[/c][00:28:35.240][c] in[/c][00:28:35.320][c] a[/c][00:28:35.440][c] new[/c][00:28:35.519][c] all-time[/c] that the market puts in a new all-time that the market puts in a new all-time high[00:28:36.120][c] because[/c][00:28:36.320][c] you[/c][00:28:36.399][c] don't[/c][00:28:36.640][c] actually[/c][00:28:36.919][c] have[/c] high because you don't actually have high because you don't actually have cash[00:28:37.440][c] to[/c][00:28:37.600][c] buy[/c][00:28:37.760][c] the[/c][00:28:37.880][c] dibs[/c][00:28:38.480][c] I[/c][00:28:38.600][c] see[/c][00:28:38.919][c] um[/c][00:28:39.600][c] and[/c][00:28:39.720][c] and[/c][00:28:39.840][c] so[/c] cash to buy the dibs I see um and and so cash to buy the dibs I see um and and so by[00:28:40.240][c] having[/c][00:28:40.640][c] something[/c][00:28:41.200][c] there[/c][00:28:41.799][c] by[/c][00:28:41.960][c] having[/c][00:28:42.240][c] at[/c] by having something there by having at by having something there by having at least[00:28:42.799][c] something[/c][00:28:43.640][c] it[/c][00:28:43.840][c] allows[/c][00:28:44.360][c] you[/c][00:28:44.760][c] to[/c][00:28:45.159][c] not[/c][00:28:45.480][c] be[/c] least something it allows you to not be least something it allows you to not be that[00:28:46.200][c] concerned[/c][00:28:47.039][c] with[/c][00:28:47.159][c] where[/c][00:28:47.320][c] the[/c][00:28:47.440][c] market[/c] that concerned with where the market that concerned with where the market goes[00:28:48.039][c] and[/c][00:28:48.200][c] that's[/c][00:28:48.399][c] the[/c][00:28:48.519][c] I[/c][00:28:48.600][c] think[/c][00:28:48.760][c] that's[/c][00:28:48.919][c] the[/c] goes and that's the I think that's the goes and that's the I think that's the way[00:28:49.080][c] to[/c][00:28:49.240][c] navigate[/c][00:28:49.559][c] the[/c][00:28:49.679][c] market[/c][00:28:50.600][c] rather[/c][00:28:50.919][c] than[/c] way to navigate the market rather than way to navigate the market rather than predict[00:28:51.720][c] exactly[/c][00:28:52.120][c] where[/c][00:28:52.240][c] it's[/c][00:28:52.399][c] going[/c][00:28:52.519][c] to[/c][00:28:52.760][c] go[/c] predict exactly where it's going to go predict exactly where it's going to go every[00:28:53.320][c] single[/c][00:28:53.600][c] month[/c][00:28:53.919][c] just[/c][00:28:54.039][c] say[/c][00:28:54.240][c] you[/c][00:28:54.360][c] know[/c] every single month just say you know every single month just say you know what[00:28:54.880][c] I[/c][00:28:55.000][c] don't[/c][00:28:55.240][c] know[/c][00:28:56.000][c] but[/c][00:28:56.559][c] this[/c][00:28:56.640][c] is[/c][00:28:56.799][c] how[/c][00:28:56.919][c] I'm[/c] what I don't know but this is how I'm what I don't know but this is how I'm going[00:28:57.080][c] to[/c][00:28:57.200][c] have[/c][00:28:57.320][c] my[/c][00:28:57.440][c] portfolio[/c][00:28:58.159][c] and[/c][00:28:58.279][c] if[/c][00:28:58.399][c] the[/c] going to have my portfolio and if the going to have my portfolio and if the market[00:28:58.799][c] goes[/c][00:28:59.039][c] up[/c][00:28:59.519][c] that's[/c][00:28:59.720][c] why[/c][00:28:59.840][c] I[/c][00:28:59.919][c] have[/c] market goes up that's why I have market goes up that's why I have exposure[00:29:00.480][c] to[/c][00:29:00.600][c] bitcoin[/c][00:29:01.039][c] because[/c][00:29:01.200][c] if[/c][00:29:01.320][c] the[/c] exposure to bitcoin because if the exposure to bitcoin because if the market[00:29:01.640][c] goes[/c][00:29:01.840][c] up[/c][00:29:02.039][c] it's[/c][00:29:02.200][c] because[/c][00:29:02.480][c] Bitcoin[/c][00:29:02.840][c] let[/c] market goes up it's because Bitcoin let market goes up it's because Bitcoin let it[00:29:03.760][c] right[/c][00:29:04.159][c] and[/c][00:29:04.320][c] the[/c][00:29:04.440][c] altcoin[/c][00:29:04.840][c] market[/c][00:29:05.120][c] follows[/c] it right and the altcoin market follows it right and the altcoin market follows at[00:29:05.679][c] least[/c][00:29:05.840][c] until[/c][00:29:06.080][c] looser[/c][00:29:06.360][c] monetary[/c][00:29:06.760][c] policy[/c] at least until looser monetary policy at least until looser monetary policy arrives[00:29:07.640][c] if[/c][00:29:07.760][c] the[/c][00:29:07.880][c] market[/c][00:29:08.200][c] goes[/c][00:29:08.679][c] down[/c][00:29:09.679][c] great[/c] arrives if the market goes down great arrives if the market goes down great that's[00:29:10.320][c] why[/c][00:29:10.440][c] you[/c][00:29:10.679][c] have[/c][00:29:10.919][c] some[/c][00:29:11.279][c] cash[/c][00:29:11.559][c] to[/c][00:29:11.760][c] take[/c] that's why you have some cash to take that's why you have some cash to take advantage[00:29:12.440][c] of[/c][00:29:12.640][c] such[/c][00:29:12.880][c] a[/c][00:29:13.000][c] dip[/c][00:29:13.399][c] so[/c][00:29:13.559][c] that's[/c][00:29:13.720][c] the[/c] advantage of such a dip so that's the advantage of such a dip so that's the reason[00:29:14.240][c] again[/c][00:29:14.600][c] the[/c][00:29:14.799][c] great[/c][00:29:15.080][c] thing[/c][00:29:15.279][c] about[/c][00:29:15.519][c] this[/c] reason again the great thing about this reason again the great thing about this is[00:29:15.919][c] it's[/c][00:29:16.159][c] not[/c][00:29:16.440][c] based[/c][00:29:16.799][c] on[/c][00:29:16.960][c] what[/c][00:29:17.159][c] I[/c][00:29:17.320][c] think[/c][00:29:17.760][c] it's[/c] is it's not based on what I think it's is it's not based on what I think it's just[00:29:18.320][c] based[/c][00:29:18.720][c] on[/c][00:29:19.080][c] the[/c][00:29:19.240][c] volatility[/c][00:29:19.799][c] the[/c] just based on the volatility the just based on the volatility the historical[00:29:20.399][c] volatility[/c][00:29:21.039][c] of[/c][00:29:21.240][c] the[/c][00:29:21.440][c] assets[/c] historical volatility of the assets historical volatility of the assets right[00:29:22.440][c] and[/c][00:29:22.519][c] so[/c][00:29:22.679][c] that's[/c][00:29:22.880][c] why[/c][00:29:23.080][c] that's[/c][00:29:23.279][c] why[/c][00:29:23.399][c] I[/c] right and so that's why that's why I right and so that's why that's why I like[00:29:23.679][c] it[/c][00:29:24.279][c] all[/c][00:29:24.399][c] right[/c][00:29:24.640][c] well[/c][00:29:24.799][c] perfect[/c][00:29:25.320][c] uh[/c][00:29:25.440][c] where[/c] like it all right well perfect uh where like it all right well perfect uh where can[00:29:25.760][c] we[/c][00:29:25.880][c] learn[/c][00:29:26.120][c] from[/c][00:29:26.320][c] you[/c][00:29:26.559][c] and[/c][00:29:26.880][c] uh[/c][00:29:27.000][c] follow[/c][00:29:27.279][c] your[/c] can we learn from you and uh follow your can we learn from you and uh follow your work work work yeah[00:29:29.240][c] I[/c][00:29:29.279][c] mean[/c][00:29:29.440][c] so[/c][00:29:29.760][c] I[/c][00:29:29.840][c] have[/c][00:29:29.960][c] a[/c][00:29:30.039][c] YouTube[/c][00:29:30.320][c] channel[/c] yeah I mean so I have a YouTube channel yeah I mean so I have a YouTube channel just[00:29:30.799][c] my[/c][00:29:30.919][c] name[/c][00:29:31.120][c] Benjamin[/c][00:29:31.519][c] Cowan[/c][00:29:32.000][c] and[/c][00:29:32.120][c] then[/c][00:29:32.240][c] I[/c] just my name Benjamin Cowan and then I just my name Benjamin Cowan and then I have[00:29:32.640][c] the[/c][00:29:32.960][c] my[/c][00:29:33.120][c] website[/c][00:29:34.000][c] um[/c][00:29:34.120][c] into[/c][00:29:34.399][c] the[/c] have the my website um into the have the my website um into the cryptoverse[00:29:35.480][c] decom[/c][00:29:36.360][c] excellent[/c][00:29:36.919][c] yeah[/c][00:29:37.200][c] it's[/c][00:29:37.360][c] a[/c] cryptoverse decom excellent yeah it's a cryptoverse decom excellent yeah it's a very[00:29:37.679][c] good[/c][00:29:37.880][c] platform[/c][00:29:38.240][c] and[/c][00:29:38.519][c] a[/c][00:29:38.640][c] very[/c][00:29:38.799][c] good[/c] very good platform and a very good very good platform and a very good channel[00:29:39.200][c] so[/c][00:29:39.360][c] I[/c][00:29:39.440][c] encourage[/c][00:29:39.799][c] people[/c][00:29:39.919][c] to[/c][00:29:40.039][c] check[/c] channel so I encourage people to check channel so I encourage people to check out[00:29:40.360][c] Ben's[/c][00:29:41.080][c] YouTube[/c][00:29:41.399][c] channel[/c][00:29:41.720][c] link[/c][00:29:41.960][c] below[/c][00:29:42.360][c] and[/c] out Ben's YouTube channel link below and out Ben's YouTube channel link below and uh[00:29:42.840][c] yeah[/c][00:29:43.000][c] this[/c][00:29:43.120][c] is[/c][00:29:43.240][c] a[/c][00:29:43.360][c] very[/c][00:29:43.640][c] comprehensive[/c][00:29:44.480][c] um[/c] uh yeah this is a very comprehensive um uh yeah this is a very comprehensive um platform[00:29:45.760][c] um[/c][00:29:46.080][c] again[/c][00:29:46.360][c] I[/c][00:29:46.519][c] I[/c][00:29:46.640][c] like[/c][00:29:46.799][c] the[/c][00:29:46.919][c] modern[/c] platform um again I I like the modern platform um again I I like the modern portfolio[00:29:47.679][c] Theory[/c][00:29:47.919][c] tool[/c][00:29:48.200][c] so[/c][00:29:48.320][c] if[/c][00:29:48.360][c] you[/c][00:29:48.440][c] want[/c][00:29:48.519][c] to[/c] portfolio Theory tool so if you want to portfolio Theory tool so if you want to play[00:29:48.799][c] around[/c][00:29:48.960][c] with[/c][00:29:49.080][c] that[/c][00:29:49.200][c] I'll[/c][00:29:49.320][c] put[/c][00:29:49.399][c] the[/c][00:29:49.519][c] link[/c] play around with that I'll put the link play around with that I'll put the link down[00:29:49.919][c] below[/c][00:29:50.200][c] as[/c][00:29:50.360][c] well[/c][00:29:50.600][c] check[/c][00:29:50.799][c] that[/c][00:29:50.919][c] out[/c][00:29:51.159][c] thank[/c] down below as well check that out thank down below as well check that out thank you[00:29:51.399][c] very[/c][00:29:51.559][c] much[/c][00:29:51.760][c] ben[/c][00:29:52.480][c] we'll[/c][00:29:52.720][c] speak[/c][00:29:53.000][c] soon[/c][00:29:53.559][c] see[/c][00:29:53.760][c] y[/c]\n"
}
],
"reports": [
{
"name": "bitcoin_simulation_confirmed_analysis.md",
"content": "# Bitcoin: Simulation Confirmed - Market Analysis & Strategy\n\n## Executive Summary\nBenjamin Cowen's latest analysis confirms that Bitcoin is currently following historical \"midterm year\" patterns with surgical precision, which he refers to as the \"simulation.\" The recent rally in the first week of March followed by a rejection aligns perfectly with 2014, 2018, and 2022 data.\n\n## Key Insights\n- **Midterm Year Pattern**: Bitcoin typically finds a low in February, rallies in the first week of March, and then fades. This cycle has repeated in 2014, 2018, and 2022.\n- **Apathy vs. Euphoria**: Unlike previous cycles that topped on euphoria, the current market is characterized by \"apathy,\" leading to shallower drops but persistent weakness.\n- **Micro-Timing**: The March rally was a \"lower high\" and a \"fade\" event, as predicted by historical averages.\n- **Macro Factors**: Despite focusing on the \"simulation\" (price history), Benjamin notes that rising oil prices and a resilient labor market (keeping the Fed away from rate cuts) provide a fundamental narrative for the observed weakness.\n\n## Historical Corollaries\n- **2014**: Similar early March rally followed by a drop into April.\n- **2018**: Local high in March, followed by a larger drop (due to the preceding euphoria top).\n- **2022**: Rally extended into late March but remained a \"sweep\" of the early March high, followed by a breakdown.\n\n## Strategy & Outlook\n- **Wealth Preservation**: The primary goal for midterm years is wealth preservation, not aggressive speculation.\n- **Short-Term Expectation**: Sideways to down movement expected into April.\n- **Pivot Point**: Be prepared to pivot only if Bitcoin breaks out beyond the historical standard deviation bounds.\n- **Winning Bet**: Historically, betting on the 4-year cycle has been the winning strategy, while expecting it to break has \"wrecked\" many.\n\n---\n*Source: IntoTheCryptoVerse - Bitcoin: Simulation Confirmed*\n"
},
{
"name": "oil_spikes_35_analysis.md",
"content": "# \ud83d\udcca Benjamin Cowen Forensic analysis: Oil Spikes 35%\n\n**Video ID**: `oWV5iW3glao`\n**Status**: THESIS CONFIRMED\n**Focus**: Macro Rotations & Risk Management\n\n## \ud83c\udfc1 The Thesis\nIn this session, Benjamin addresses a major validation of his long-term \"Managing Risk\" framework. While \"cheerleaders\" (shorter-term price bulls) were mocking his cautious stance during the March 4th rally, the recent 35% spike in oil prices is triggering a classic macro signal that Benjamin has signaled for months.\n\n## \ud83e\udde0 Key Forensic Findings\n\n1. **The 'Simulation' Pattern**: Benjamin observes that market volatility is tracking prior midterm years and historical standard deviations with uncanny accuracy (\"We really do live in a simulation\").\n2. **Oil as a Macro Lead**: The 35% oil spike is framed as a significant inflationary pressure that validates a \"Risk-Off\" environment.\n3. **Sentiment Polarity**: Benjamin highlights the \"silence\" (crickets) from those who \"dunked\" on him during the local counter-trend rally. This is a classic indicator of over-leveraged sentiment being wiped out.\n4. **Permabull vs. Permabear**: Benjamin clarified his stance: \"It is better to be a permabull than a permabear... but sometimes the bears are right.\" He positions himself as a \"Realist\" focusing on business cycles.\n\n## \ud83d\udcc8 Actionable Logic for CoPaw\n- **Social Precursor**: When Twitter \"dunking\" peaks during counter-trend rallies, it's a high-probability signal of an imminent local top (Sentiment Capitulation).\n- **Macro Anchor**: Cross-reference Bitcoin price action with **Oil (WTI)** and standard deviation bands on midterm-year historical averages.\n- **Thesis Shift**: Benjamin is moving from \"Cautious\" to \"Valideted Risk Management\" mode. Expect more focus on macro rotations (ETH/BTC, Dominance).\n\n---\n*Synthesized by CoPaw Forensic Architect*\n"
},
{
"name": "simulation_confirmed_update.md",
"content": "# Bitcoin: Simulation Confirmed - Updated Analysis\n\n## \ud83c\udfaf Executive Summary\nFollowing Benjamin Cowen's latest update on March 9, 2026, the \"Simulation\" (historical midterm year pattern) remains remarkably accurate. Bitcoin's early March rally to $73.5K was met with immediate rejection, aligning perfectly with historical fades observed in 2014, 2018, and 2022.\n\n## \ud83d\udcca Key Market Dynamics\n- **The March Fade**: Historically, midterm years see a rally in the first week of March that fails to hold. This cycle has mirrored that average return with surgical precision.\n- **Apathy vs. Euphoria**: A defining characteristic of this cycle is \"apathy.\" Unlike previous cycles that peaked with extreme euphoria (leading to massive crashes), current weakness is more of a slow fade, which can be harder to trade but matches the \"midterm year\" profile.\n- **Historical Corollaries**:\n - **2014**: Similar early March rally followed by a drop into April.\n - **2018**: Bottomed around the same time, but had a larger drop due to euphoria top.\n - **2022**: Rally extended slightly longer but ultimately remained a sweep of the March high.\n- **The \"Simulation\" Average**: When averaging 2014, 2018, and 2022, the current price action sits right on the historical average within one standard deviation.\n\n## \ud83d\udcc9 Macro Factors\n- **Oil Spike**: Rising oil prices are providing a fundamental headwind.\n- **Labor Market**: A resilient labor market keeps the Federal Reserve away from imminent rate cuts, further supporting the bearish \"midterm year\" narrative.\n- **Narrative follows Price**: Cowen emphasizes that while narratives (ISM, Jane Street, etc.) are used to explain the move, the price is simply following the 4-year cycle script.\n\n## \ud83d\udee1\ufe0f Strategic Outlook: Wealth Preservation\n- **Short-Term**: Sideways to downward movement is expected into April and May.\n- **Pivot Point**: Any deviation outside the historical standard deviation bounds would require a pivot, but for now, the 4-year cycle remains the winning bet.\n- **The Name of the Game**: Survive the midterm year. The primary objective is to live to fight another day in the eventual bull market, rather than getting \"wrecked\" trying to time counter-trend rallies.\n\n---\n*Source: IntoTheCryptoVerse (Benjamin Cowen) - March 9, 2026*\n"
}
],
"knowledge_vault": [
{
"name": "market_psychology_cowen.md",
"content": "# \ud83c\udf93 Crypto Market Psychology: The Benjamin Cowen Strategy\n\n**Topic**: Market Cycles and Sentiment Patterns\n**Source**: IntoTheCryptoVerse Distillation\n**Status**: ACTIVE KNOWLEDGE\n\n## \ud83e\udde0 Core Thesis\nThe \"Cowen Strategy\" relies on identifying the intersection between logarithmic regression and traditional momentum indicators. It's a \"data-first, hype-second\" approach designed to neutralize emotional engineering from viral crypto circles.\n\n## \ud83d\udcc8 Reusable Patterns\n1. **The 'Patient' Hook**: Starting videos with historical data rather than immediate price predictions to build long-term authority.\n2. **Visual Anchors**: Using the same logarithmic charts in every video creates a psychological \"Safe Harbor\" for viewers during high volatility.\n3. **Sentiment Precursors**: Community \"capitulation\" in comments often happens 24-48 hours before a local price bottom in 'Risk-Off' environments.\n\n## \ud83d\udee0\ufe0f Lessons for CoPaw\n- When analyzing market videos, prioritize **Historical Context** over **Price Targets**.\n- Distill sentiment not just from the video, but from the *pacing* of the speech (faster speech often correlates with higher local volatility mentions).\n\n---\n*Synthesized by CoPaw Knowledge Architect Cycle v1.0*\n"
},
{
"name": "README.md",
"content": "# \ud83c\udffa Knowledge Vault \n Distilled wisdom and recursive patterns from IntoTheCryptoVerse analytics."
}
],
"last_updated": "2026-03-10 07:56:03"
};